Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleDe Nardi A, Marini G, Dorigatti I, et al., 2025,
Quantifying West Nile virus circulation in the avian host population in Northern Italy
, Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol: 10, Pages: 375-386, ISSN: 2468-2152West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most threatening mosquito-borne pathogens in Italy where hundreds of human cases were recorded during the last decade. Here, we estimated the WNV incidence in the avian population in the Emilia-Romagna region through a modelling framework which enabled us to eventually assess the fraction of birds that present anti-WNV antibodies at the end of each epidemiological season. We fitted an SIR model to ornithological data, consisting of 18,989 specimens belonging to Corvidae species collected between 2013 and 2022: every year from May to November birds are captured or shot and tested for WNV genome presence. We found that the incidence peaks between mid-July and late August, infected corvids seem on average 17% more likely to be captured with respect to susceptible ones and seroprevalence was estimated to be larger than other years at the end of 2018, consistent with the anomalous number of recorded human infections. Thanks to our modelling study we quantified WNV infection dynamics in the corvid community, which is still poorly investigated despite its importance for the virus circulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies providing quantitative information on infection and immunity in the bird population, yielding new important insights on WNV transmission dynamics.
-
Journal articleCurran-Sebastian J, Andersen FM, Bhatt S, 2025,
Modelling the stochastic importation dynamics and establishment of novel pathogenic strains using a general branching processes framework
, MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES, Vol: 380, ISSN: 0025-5564 -
Journal articleVillaveces A, Chen Y, Tucker S, et al., 2025,
Orphanhood and caregiver death among children in the United States by all-cause mortality, 2000-2021
, Nature Medicine, ISSN: 1078-8956Deaths of parents and grandparent caregivers threaten child wellbeing due to losses of care, financial support, safety, and family stability, but are relatively unrecognised as a public health crisis. We used cause-specific vital statistics deaths registrations in a modelling approach to estimate the full magnitude of orphanhood incidence and prevalence among United States (U.S.) children aged 0-17 years between 2000-2021 by cause, child age and race \& ethnicity, sex of deceased parent, and state, and also accounted for grandparent caregiver loss using population survey data. In 2021, we estimate 2.91 million children (4.2% of children) had in their lifetime experienced prevalent orphanhood and caregiver death combined, with incidence increasing by 49.5% and prevalence by 7.9% since 2000. Populations disproportionately affected by orphanhood included 5.2% of all adolescents; 6.4% and 4.7% respectively of non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, and non-Hispanic Black children; and children in southern and eastern states. In 2021, drug overdose was the leading cause of orphanhood among non-Hispanic white children, but not among minoritised subgroups. Effective policies and programs to support nearly 3 million bereaved children are needed to reduce the acute and long-term negative effects of orphanhood.
-
Journal articleAtchison CJ, Gilby N, Pantelidou G, et al., 2025,
Strategies to Increase Response Rate and Reduce Nonresponse Bias in Population Health Research: Analysis of a Series of Randomized Controlled Experiments during a Large COVID-19 Study.
, JMIR Public Health Surveill, Vol: 11BACKGROUND: High response rates are needed in population-based studies, as nonresponse reduces effective sample size and bias affects accuracy and decreases the generalizability of the study findings. OBJECTIVE: We tested different strategies to improve response rate and reduce nonresponse bias in a national population-based COVID-19 surveillance program in England, United Kingdom. METHODS: Over 19 rounds, a random sample of individuals aged 5 years and older from the general population in England were invited by mail to complete a web-based questionnaire and return a swab for SARS-CoV-2 testing. We carried out several nested randomized controlled experiments to measure the impact on response rates of different interventions, including (1) variations in invitation and reminder letters and SMS text messages and (2) the offer of a conditional monetary incentive to return a swab, reporting absolute changes in response and relative response rate (95% CIs). RESULTS: Monetary incentives increased the response rate (completed swabs returned as a proportion of the number of individuals invited) across all age groups, sex at birth, and area deprivation with the biggest increase among the lowest responders, namely teenagers and young adults and those living in more deprived areas. With no monetary incentive, the response rate was 3.4% in participants aged 18-22 years, increasing to 8.1% with a £10 (US $12.5) incentive, 11.9% with £20 (US $25.0), and 18.2% with £30 (US $37.5) (relative response rate 2.4 [95% CI 2.0-2.9], 3.5 [95% CI 3.0-4.2], and 5.4 [95% CI 4.4-6.7], respectively). Nonmonetary strategies had a modest, if any, impact on response rate. The largest effect was observed for sending an additional swab reminder (SMS text message or email). For example, those receiving an additional SMS text message were more likely to return a completed swab compared to those receiving the standard email-SMS approach, 73.3% versus 70.2%: percentage difference 3.1%
-
Journal articleVoller C, Perrin LD, Gibbens JC, et al., 2025,
Can biosecurity on farms reduce bovine tuberculosis risks in cattle in England? A review of observational and literature-based evidence
, Veterinary Record, Vol: 196, ISSN: 0042-4900Background: Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a burden to cattle farming in Great Britain. Poor biosecurity has been identified as contributing to the epidemic. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of epidemiological studies published in the scientific literature between 1921 and 2024 that measured the association between farm biosecurity and cattle TB. Eligible studies controlled for confounding factors and reported statistically significant association/s between biosecurity and TB (p < 0.05) and/or an effect ratio/s of more than 3. Biosecurity uptake in England was assessed using official Disease Report Forms (DRFs) from 4074 TB incidents occurring in 2018 and 2019. Results: Thirty-three papers with 116 effect estimates met the inclusion criteria and were grouped according to a five-point biosecurity plan. There was consistent evidence for TB risk being reduced by reducing contact with neighbouring herds and preventing cattle at higher TB risk from entering herds. The evidence for the effectiveness of measures for reducing contact between badgers and cattle was inconsistent. The DRF data showed a low uptake of biosecurity to reduce contact between badgers and cattle. Limitations: All the studies identified were retrospective. Biosecurity was measured using different instruments, for example, questionnaires. Conclusions: There is analytical epidemiological evidence supporting guidance for improving biosecurity, but there are some limitations. Further research is needed to identify the most effective wildlife-focused measures.
-
Journal articleWariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, et al., 2025,
Multi-level determinants of timely routine childhood vaccinations in The Gambia: Findings from a nationwide analysis.
, Vaccine, Vol: 43INTRODUCTION: Achieving the ambitious goals of the Immunisation Agenda 2030 (IA2030) requires a deeper understanding of factors influencing under-vaccination, including timely vaccination. This study investigates the demand- and supply-side determinants influencing the timely uptake of key childhood vaccines scheduled throughout the first year of life in The Gambia. METHODS: We used two nationally-representative datasets: the 2019-20 Gambian Demographic and Health Survey and the 2019 national immunisation facility mapping. Using Bayesian multi-level binary logistic regression models, we identified key factors significantly associated with timely vaccination for five key vaccines: birth dose of hepatitis-B (HepB0), first, second, and third doses of the pentavalent vaccine (Penta1, Penta2, Penta3), and first-dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in children aged 12-35 months. We report the adjusted Odds Ratios (aORs) and 95 % Credible Intervals (95 % CIs) in each case. RESULTS: We found that demand-side factors, such as ethnicity, household wealth status, maternal education, maternal parity, and the duration of the household's residency in its current location, were the most common drivers of timely childhood vaccination. However, supply-side factors such as travel time to the nearest immunisation clinic, availability of cold-storage and staffing numbers in the nearest immunisation clinic were also significant determinants. Furthermore, the determinants varied across specific vaccines and the timing of doses. For example, delivery in a health facility (aOR = 1.58, 95 %CI: 1.02-2.53), living less than 30 min (aOR = 2.11, 95 %CI: 1.2-8.84) and living between 30 and 60 min (aOR = 3.68, 95 %CI: 1.1-14.99) from a fixed-immunisation clinic was associated with timely HepB0, a time-sensitive vaccine that must be administered within 24 h of birth. On the other hand, children who received Penta1 and
-
Journal articleOliveira LMA, Costa NS, Mestrovic T, et al., 2025,
The battle against antimicrobial resistance is more important now than ever: time to educate, advocate and act
, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 150, ISSN: 1201-9712 -
Journal articleHallett TB, Mangal TD, Tamuri AU, et al., 2025,
Estimates of resource use in the public-sector health-care system and the effect of strengthening health-care services in Malawi during 2015–19: a modelling study (Thanzi La Onse)
, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 13, Pages: E28-E37, ISSN: 2572-116XBackgroundIn all health-care systems, decisions need to be made regarding allocation of available resources. Evidence is needed for these decisions, especially in low-income countries. We aimed to estimate how health-care resources provided by the public sector were used in Malawi during 2015–19 and to estimate the effects of strengthening health-care services.MethodsFor this modelling study, we used the Thanzi La Onse model, an individual-based simulation model. The scope of the model was health care provided by the public sector in Malawi during 2015–19. Health-care services were delivered during health-care system interaction (HSI) events, which we characterised as occurring at a particular facility level and requiring a particular number of appointments. We developed mechanistic models for the causes of death and disability that were estimated to account for approximately 81% of deaths and approximately 72% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in Malawi during 2015–19, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates; we computed DALYs incurred in the population as the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. The disease models could interact with one another and with the underlying properties of each person. Each person in the Thanzi La Onse model had specific properties (eg, sex, district of residence, wealth percentile, smoking status, and BMI, among others), for which we measured distribution and evolution over time using demographic and health survey data. We also estimated the effect of different types of health-care system improvement.FindingsWe estimated that the public-sector health-care system in Malawi averted 41·2 million DALYs (95% UI 38·6–43·8) during 2015–19, approximately half of the 84·3 million DALYs (81·5–86·9) that the population would otherwise have incurred. DALYs averted were heavily skewed to children aged 0–4 years due to s
-
Journal articlePaschoalotto MAC, Cima J, Costa E, et al., 2024,
Politics and confidence toward the COVID-19 vaccination: A Brazilian cross-sectional study.
, Hum Vaccin Immunother, Vol: 20This study has the aim of assessing the Brazilian perceptions, influencing factors and political positioning on the confidence concerning COVID-19 vaccination. To achieve the objective, the methods rely on a cross-sectional survey of Brazilian citizens, distributed through different social networks. The sample is composed of 1,670 valid responses, collected from almost all Brazilian states and state capitals. To analyze the data and give a clear view of the variables' relationship, the study used bivariate and comparative graphs. Results show a higher level of confidence in vaccines from Pfizer and AstraZeneca, while the lower level of confidence is associated with vaccines from Sinopharm and Sputinik5. Vaccine efficacy is the most significant influencing factor that helps in the decision to get vaccinated. Also, individuals are less willing to get vaccinated if their political preferences are related to the right-wing. The results led to three main health and social implications: i) the vaccination strategy campaigns should take in count vaccine efficacy and political aspects; ii) the vaccination process should be adapted to regions with different political positions; and iii) a reinforcement in the educational policies of the vaccine's importance to the public health, to avoid the politization of a health issue.
-
Journal articleMonteirinho Leitao RA, Leitao R, Wan IU, et al., 2024,
Detection of fungal sequences in human brain: rDNA locus amplification and deep sequencing
, Scientific Reports, ISSN: 2045-2322The aetiology of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD) are unknown and tend to manifest at a late stage in life; eventhough these neurodegenerative diseases are caused by different affected proteins, they are both characterized by neuroinflammation.Links between bacterial and viral infection and AD/PD has been suggested in several studies, however, few have attempted to establisha link between fungal infection and AD/PD. In this study we adopted a nanopore-based sequencing approach to characterise thepresence or absence of fungal genera in both human brain tissue and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). We observed the presence of smallfungal burden DNA in two AD brains and a control case (extensive amyloid angiopathy). This approach would be well-placed toinvestigate potential links between microbial infection and neurodegenerative disease.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
Contact us
For any enquiries related to the MRC Centre please contact:
Scientific Manager
Susannah Fisher
mrc.gida@imperial.ac.uk
External Relationships and Communications Manager
Dr Sabine van Elsland
s.van-elsland@imperial.ac.uk