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  • Journal article
    Garske T, Clarke P, Ghani AC, 2007,

    The Transmissibility of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial Poultry in Industrialised Countries

    , PLOS ONE, Vol: 2, ISSN: 1932-6203
  • Journal article
    Boily MC, Asghar Z, Garske T, Ghani AC, Poulin Ret al., 2007,

    Influence of Selected Formation Rules for Finite Population Networks with Fixed Macrostructures: Implications for Individual-Based Model of Infectious Diseases

    , Mathematical Population Studies, Vol: 14, Pages: 237-267

    Individual-based network models are increasingly being applied to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Research in this area has mostly focused on networks defined under a limited set of rules (e.g., preferential attachment, sexual partner formation and dissolution) that are supposed to mimic the real world but are often defined heuristically due to lack of empirical knowledge. Here, two different mechanisms (M- and λ2-rules) were used to generate a wide range of networks and to show the extent to which microstructures such as the mean component size, the size of the giant component and the cumulative nomination centrality index may vary between networks with fixed predetermined macrostructure characteristics (size, node degree distribution and mixing pattern) and influence disease transmission. It is important to carefully consider the limitations of network models and to appreciate the extent to which a given degree distribution and mixing pattern will be consistent with a wide range of underlying network microstructures.

  • Journal article
    Gregson S, Adamson S, Papaya S, Mundondo J, Nyamukapa CA, Mason PR, Garnett GP, Chandiwana SK, Foster G, Anderson RMet al., 2007,

    Impact and Process Evaluation of Integrated Community and Clinic-Based HIV-1 Control: A Cluster-Randomised Trial in Eastern Zimbabwe

    , PLOS Medicine, Vol: 4, Pages: 545-555, ISSN: 1549-1277

    BackgroundHIV-1 control in sub-Saharan Africa requires cost-effective and sustainable programmes that promote behaviour change and reduce cofactor sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at the population and individual levels.Methods and FindingsWe measured the feasibility of community-based peer education, free condom distribution, income-generating projects, and clinic-based STI treatment and counselling services and evaluated their impact on the incidence of HIV-1 measured over a 3-y period in a cluster-randomised controlled trial in eastern Zimbabwe. Analysis of primary outcomes was on an intention-to-treat basis. The income-generating projects proved impossible to implement in the prevailing economic climate. Despite greater programme activity and knowledge in the intervention communities, the incidence rate ratio of HIV-1 was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92–1.75) compared to the control communities. No evidence was found for reduced incidence of self-reported STI symptoms or high-risk sexual behaviour in the intervention communities. Males who attended programme meetings had lower HIV-1 incidence (incidence rate ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.24–0.98), and fewer men who attended programme meetings reported unprotected sex with casual partners (odds ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.28–0.75). More male STI patients in the intervention communities reported cessation of symptoms (odds ratio 2.49, 95% CI 1.21–5.12).ConclusionsIntegrated peer education, condom distribution, and syndromic STI management did not reduce population-level HIV-1 incidence in a declining epidemic, despite reducing HIV-1 incidence in the immediate male target group. Our results highlight the need to assess the community-level impact of interventions that are effective amongst targeted population sub-groups.

  • Journal article
    Phuc HK, Andreasen MH, Burton RS, Vass C, Epton MJ, Pape G, Fu G, Condon KC, Scaife S, Donnelly CA, Coleman PG, White-Cooper H, Alphey Let al., 2007,

    Late-acting dominant lethal genetic systems and mosquito control

    , BMC Biology, Vol: 5, ISSN: 1741-7007
  • Conference paper
    Hardell L, Walker MJ, Walhjalt B, Friedman LS, Richter EDet al., 2007,

    Secret ties to industry and conflicting interests in cancer research

    , International Conference on Ethical Considerations and Future Challenges in Occupational and Enviromental Health, Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 227-233, ISSN: 0271-3586
  • Journal article
    Basanez M-G, Razali K, Renz A, Kelly Det al., 2007,

    Density-dependent host choice by disease vectors:: epidemiological implications of the ideal free distribution

    , TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 101, Pages: 256-269, ISSN: 0035-9203
  • Journal article
    Hallett TB, Lewis JJC, Lopman BA, Nyamukapa CA, Mushati P, Wambe M, Garnett GP, Gregson Set al., 2007,

    Age at first sex and HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe

    , STUDIES IN FAMILY PLANNING, Vol: 38, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 0039-3665
  • Journal article
    Kwok KO, Leung GM, Lam WY, Riley Set al., 2007,

    Using models to identify routes of nosocomial infection: a large hospital outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong.

    , Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 274, Pages: 611-617
  • Conference paper
    Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, 2007,

    The role of mathematical modelling in pandemic preparedness

    , 17th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases/25th International Congress of Chemotherapy, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: S16-S16, ISSN: 0924-8579
  • Journal article
    Clarke PS, Ghani AC, 2007,

    A note on parameter estimation for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic models

    , STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, Vol: 26, Pages: 546-552, ISSN: 0277-6715

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