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• Journal article
  Gambhir M, Basanez M-G, Turner F, Kumaresan J, Grassly NCet al., 2007,

  Trachoma:: transmission, infection, and control

  , LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 7, Pages: 420-427, ISSN: 1473-3099
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  • Citations: 43
• Journal article
  Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, 2007,

  Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study (vol 369, pg 1356, 2007)

  , LANCET, Vol: 369, Pages: 1790-1790, ISSN: 0140-6736
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  • Citations: 6
• Journal article
  Collin SM, Baggaley RF, Pittrof R, Filippi Vet al., 2007,

  Could a simple antenatal package combining micronutritional supplementation with presumptive treatment of infection prevent maternal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa?

  , BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, Vol: 7

  BACKGROUND: Reducing maternal mortality is a key goal of international development. Our objective was to determine the potential impact on maternal mortality across sub-Saharan Africa of a combination of dietary supplementation and presumptive treatment of infection during pregnancy. Our aim was to demonstrate the importance of antenatal interventions in the fight against maternal mortality, and to stimulate debate about the design of an effective antenatal care package which could be delivered at the lowest level of the antenatal health system or at community level. METHODS: We collated evidence for the effectiveness of antenatal interventions from systematic reviews and controlled trials, and we selected interventions which have demonstrated potential to prevent maternal deaths. We used a model-based analysis to estimate the total reduction in maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa which could be achieved by combining these interventions into a single package, based on a WHO systematic review of causes of maternal deaths. RESULTS: Severe hypertensive disorders, puerperal sepsis and anemia are causes of maternal deaths which could be prevented to some extent by prophylactic measures during pregnancy. A package of pills comprising calcium and iron supplements and appropriate anti-microbial and anti-malarial drugs could reduce maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa by 8% (range <1% to 20%). This estimate is based on Cochrane Review estimates for the effectiveness of daily calcium supplements in reducing the risk of death/serious morbidity due to hypertensive disorders (RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.97), anti-microbial prophylaxis in reducing the odds of puerperal sepsis/postpartum endometritis (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.23-1.06), anti-malarial prophylaxis in reducing the risk of severe antenatal anemia (RR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.50-0.78), and iron supplementation in reducing the risk of iron deficiency anemia at term (RR = 0.33, 95% CI 0.16-0.69). CONCLUSION: Maternal mortalit

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• Journal article
  Bootsma MCJ, Ferguson NM, 2007,

  The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities.

  , Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 104, Pages: 7588-7593, ISSN: 0027-8424

  During the 1918 influenza pandemic, the U.S., unlike Europe, put considerable effort into public health interventions. There was also more geographic variation in the autumn wave of the pandemic in the U.S. compared with Europe, with some cities seeing only a single large peak in mortality and others seeing double-peaked epidemics. Here we examine whether differences in the public health measures adopted by different cities can explain the variation in epidemic patterns and overall mortality observed. We show that city-specific per-capita excess mortality in 1918 was significantly correlated with 1917 per-capita mortality, indicating some intrinsic variation in overall mortality, perhaps related to sociodemographic factors. In the subset of 23 cities for which we had partial data on the timing of interventions, an even stronger correlation was found between excess mortality and how early in the epidemic interventions were introduced. We then fitted an epidemic model to weekly mortality in 16 cities with nearly complete intervention-timing data and estimated the impact of interventions. The model reproduced the observed epidemic patterns well. In line with theoretical arguments, we found the time-limited interventions used reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10-30%), and that the impact was often very limited because of interventions being introduced too late and lifted too early. San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Kansas City had the most effective interventions, reducing transmission rates by up to 30-50%. Our analysis also suggests that individuals reactively reduced their contact rates in response to high levels of mortality during the pandemic.

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• Journal article
  Watts H, Gregson S, Saito S, Lopman B, Beasley M, Monasch Ret al., 2007,

  Poorer health and nutritional outcomes in orphans and vulnerable young children not explained by greater exposure to extreme poverty in Zimbabwe

  , TROPICAL MEDICINE & INTERNATIONAL HEALTH, Vol: 12, Pages: 584-593, ISSN: 1360-2276
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  • Citations: 45
• Conference paper
  Hinsley W, Field T, Woods J, 2007,

  Creating Individual Based Models of the Plankton Ecosystem

  , International Conference on Computational Science, Publisher: Springer-Verlag, LNCS, Pages: 111-118, ISSN: 0302-9743
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• Journal article
  Jewell NP, Lei X, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Leung GM, Ho L-M, Cowling BJ, Hedley AJet al., 2007,

  Non-parametric estimation of the case fatality ratio with competing risks data: An application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)

  , STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, Vol: 26, Pages: 1982-1998, ISSN: 0277-6715
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  • Citations: 33
• Journal article
  Sherr L, Lopman B, Kakowa M, Dube S, Chawira G, Nyamukapa C, Oberzaucher N, Cremin I, Gregson Set al., 2007,

  Voluntary counselling and testing: uptake, impact on sexual behaviour, and HIV incidence in a rural Zimbabwean cohort

  , AIDS, Vol: 21, Pages: 851-860, ISSN: 0269-9370
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  • Citations: 166
• Journal article
  Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, Bahl S, Deshpande JM, Sutter RW, Heymann DL, Aylward RBet al., 2007,

  Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study

  , LANCET, Vol: 369, Pages: 1356-1362, ISSN: 0140-6736
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  • Citations: 114
• Journal article
  Ferguson NM, 2007,

  Capturing Human Behaviour

  , Nature, Vol: 446, Pages: 733-733
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