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  • Journal article
    French MD, Rollinson D, Basanez M-G, Mgeni AF, Khamis ISet al., 2007,

    School-based control of urinary schistosomiasis on Zanzibar, Tanzania: Monitoring micro-haematuria with reagent strips as a rapid urological assessment

    , Journal of Pediatric Urology, Vol: 3, Pages: 364-368

    Objective: To evaluate micro-haematuria, detected by Haemastix reagent strips, for diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis during a 3-year period of school-based control on Zanzibar. Patients and methods: A sub-set of school children, from a total of 135,000 who were receiving treatment for urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, were monitored by parasitological and questionnaire methods for Schistosoma haematobium infections: at treatment baseline in 2004 (nZ2002), follow up with re-treatment in 2005 (nZ3278) and further follow up with re-treatment in 2006 (nZ3993). Standard diagnostic scores for micro-haematuria were calculated against parasitological assessment. Results: Diagnostic scores of Haemastix remained strong throughout the 3-year period. In 2006, scores were: sensitivity (SS)=0.86 (95% CI: 0.86-0.88), specificity (SP)=0.99 (0.98-1.00), positive predictive value (PPV)=0.90 (0.88-0.91), negative predictive value (NPV)=0.98 (0.98-0.99) in boys; and SS=0.84 (0.82-0.86), SP=0.98 (0.98-0.99), PPV=0.77 (0.75-0.79) and NPV=0.99 (0.99-1.00) in girls. By comparison, reported blood in urine and pain upon urination were much lower and not as informative. Conclusion: At a cost of approximately £0.20/test, further use of reagent strips for monitoring of urinary schistosomiasis during ongoing control programmes should be advocated as a rapid, cost effective and informative disease surveillance tool.
  • Journal article
    Brisson M, Van de Velde N, Boily MC, 2007,

    The potential cost-effectiveness of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccines in Canada

    , Vaccine, Vol: 25, Pages: 5399-5408
  • Journal article
    Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, 2007,

    Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: Application to measles transmission in London

    , Journal of the Royal Society Interface
  • Journal article
    Brisson M, Van de Velde N, Boily MC, 2007,

    The potential cost-effectiveness of prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccines in Canada

    , Vaccine, Vol: 25, Pages: 5399-5408
  • Journal article
    Van de Velde N, Brisson M, Boily MC, 2007,

    Modeling human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness: quantifying the impact of parameter uncertainty

    , American Journal Epidemioly, Vol: 165, Pages: 762-775
  • Journal article
    Vivas-Martínez S, Grillet ME, Botto C, Basáñez MGet al., 2007,

    [Human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus]

    , Boletín de Malariología y Salud Ambiental, Vol: 47, Pages: 15-46
  • Conference paper
    Hinsley W, Field T, Woods J, 2007,

    Creating individual based models of the plankton ecosystem

    , 7th International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2007), Publisher: SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN, Pages: 111-+, ISSN: 0302-9743
  • Book chapter
    Anderson RM, Plotkin S, 2007,

    The potential public health impact of imperfect HIV-1 vaccines.

    , Aids Vaccine Development - Challenges and Opportunities, Editors: Koff, Kahn, Gust, Publisher: Horizon Scientific Press, Pages: 139-146, ISBN: 9781904455110
  • Journal article
    Ferguson N, 2006,

    Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic

    , LANCET, Vol: 368, Pages: 2187-2188, ISSN: 0140-6736
  • Journal article
    Desai K, Boily MC, Garnett GP, Mâsse BR, Moses S, Bailey RCet al., 2006,

    The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV - insights from clinical trial simulation

    , Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, Vol: 3, ISSN: 1742-7622

    BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%-77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevent

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