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Journal articleBates IH, Li SL, Parag KV, et al., 2026,
Spatial and social determinants of the 1857 yellow fever epidemic in Lisbon
, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1935-2727Despite the availability of a highly effective vaccine, yellow fever virus (YFV) is still endemic in 47 countries globally. Although disease due to YFV was first recorded in 1635, factors contributing to its spread remain poorly understood today. Using archival data from the nineteenth century, we digitalised and mapped the 1857 yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Lisbon, Portugal, to understand how transmission dynamics and spatial and environmental characteristics led to disparities in health outcomes between sociodemographic groups. We modelled the basic and effective reproduction number (R0 and Rt) and found that transmission dynamics throughout this pre-vaccination era epidemic are consistent with prevailing estimates (R0 ≃ 5). Transmission peaked at the end of October 1857 when YF was declared an epidemic, then declined until January 1858. YFV killed 4.2% of the population with infection attack rates ranging between 10.3-13.5%. Out of the 34 parishes in urban Lisbon, our hotspot analysis identified 15 statistically significant high-risk parishes near the coastline. Our maps, combined with a digital terrain model, show that the highest number of deaths occurred within connected streets confined in low-elevation built-up areas with homes. We discuss the potential role of wind and temperature in aiding mosquito dispersal across Lisbon, which were believed as the main historical environmental drivers of YF. More people died at home than in hospitals, and although working-aged men accounted for most fatalities, the highest probability of death was found among women working at home. Our study highlights the role of human-environment interactions in shaping a historical YF epidemic in a pre-vaccination urban setting and enhances our understanding of modern-day transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleBaggaley RF, Hooper CM, Silva L, et al., 2026,
Prevalence and risk factors for key infectious diseases amongst migrants to the UK: a systematic review.
, BMC Infect Dis, Vol: 26BACKGROUND: Migrants are at increased risk of infections including HIV, tuberculosis and viral hepatitis, with poorer outcomes. Early diagnosis and management can reduce morbidity, mortality and onward transmission. This systematic review summarises prevalence of HIV, latent and active tuberculosis and hepatitis B and C among UK migrants and evaluates associated risk factors. METHODS: PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched from 2004 to 11 June 2025. The review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines and registered with PROSPERO (registration CRD42024521191). Quality assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. High heterogeneity (I2 = 95.2%, 99.2%, 87.2%, 96.9% and 91.6% for IGRA, active TB, HIV, HBV and HCV yields, respectively) indicated that meta-analysis was not appropriate. The impact of risk factors on prevalence was explored through meta-regression and descriptive analysis. RESULTS: Of 2033 identified records, 36 were included, reporting Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) (n = 13), active TB (n = 10), HIV (n = 12), HBV (n = 16) and HCV (n = 11) test yields. An additional two publications excluded from the main analysis for reporting duplicate study data were included in the risk factor analysis because they stratified prevalence by additional risk factors. Highest yield was for IGRA which, excluding one lower prevalence outlier (6.9% (n = 1617)), was 15.1%-22.1%. There was high heterogeneity in active TB prevalence: 62-1,484/100,000. HIV prevalence among larger studies (n > 200) was 0.18%-0.48%. HBV prevalence was 0.00%-8.93% (all studies) and 1.06%-4.75% for larger studies (n > 1000). HCV prevalence was lower: 0.00%-1.67%, with only two of 11 included estimates above 0.50%. There was considerable heterogeneit
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Journal articleSilva L, Baggaley RF, Gogoi M, et al., 2026,
Promoting migrant health as a universal right in the United Kingdom.
, BMC Glob Public Health, Vol: 4Migrants arriving in the United Kingdom (UK), many of whom experience vulnerability before and during migration, face a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases shaped by cumulative exposures in their countries of origin, across the migration journey, and compounded by fragmented access to care upon arrival. Despite improvements in pre-entry health assessments, post-arrival provision in reception centres remains inconsistent, with significant gaps in infectious disease screening, mental health support, medication continuity, and timely registration with a general practitioner (GP). Community-led initiatives like Doctors of the World's Safe Surgeries and the Oxford Refugee Health Initiative promote inclusive healthcare access, yet remain limited in scale. Using a social determinants of health (SDH) lens, this perspective highlights how structural barriers-including overcrowded accommodation, language challenges, and unclear entitlements-undermine the effectiveness of existing health policies and widen inequalities. We propose an essential care package for UK migrant reception centres that integrates early screening, stable access to medicines, mental health assessment, environmental health measures, and robust continuity of care for non-communicable diseases through clear referral pathways into the National Health Service (NHS). Embedding this approach within current public health infrastructure would reduce preventable morbidity, strengthen health system efficiency, and advance the UK's commitment to Sustainable Development Goals. Strengthening care at the point of arrival is therefore critical to promoting health equity and ensuring that no one is left behind.
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Journal articleChindelevitch L, Hedman ÅK, Bichko D, et al., 2026,
ReverseGWAS identifies combined phenotypes associated with a genotype in GWA studies
, Bioinformatics, Vol: 42, ISSN: 1367-4803MotivationTraditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) aim to uncover the genetic variants associated with a single phenotype of interest (typically a disease), and to elucidate its genotypic architecture. However, many of today’s GWAS simultaneously measure multiple related phenotypes, leading to the possibility of pursuing the reverse aim of elucidating the “phenotypic architecture” of a single genetic variant. In other words, we may ask what combination of measured phenotypes is associated with a given genotypic variant. ReverseGWAS is an algorithmic platform for answering such questions in the context of large-scale multi-phenotype GWAS.ResultsWe demonstrate the effectiveness of ReverseGWAS on simulated data, showing its ability to identify logical combinations of phenotypes with a reasonable amount of noise. We then apply it to a selection of combined phenotypes from the UK Biobank, obtaining 719 candidate associations using autoimmune diseases and 205 using common ICD10 codes. We find that the majority of these associations (546/719 and 111/205, respectively) successfully replicate in an independent cohort, FinnGen.AvailabilityThe source code of ReverseGWAS is freely available to non-commercial users as an installable R package at https://github.com/Leonardini/rgwas.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Journal articleGray E, Cooper L, Ramirez Gonzalez A, et al., 2026,
Estimating population immunity against serotype-two poliomyelitis from the inactivated polio vaccine in routine immunization across 112 countries: a modelling study
, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1549-1277BackgroundTo mitigate the risk of outbreaks of serotype 2 poliomyelitis after withdrawal of this serotype from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016, inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into the routine immunization (RI) programmes of all countries using OPV. Since 2022, WHO has recommended a 2-dose schedule, with a first dose at 14 weeks of age followed by a second dose at least 4 months later (e.g., 14–39 week schedule), although an earlier schedule may be adopted, despite lower immunogenicity, if vaccine coverage is low at older ages.Methods and findingsWe combined published data on type-2 IPV seroconversion with age, national RI coverage estimates, dose introduction dates, and country-specific schedules using a cohort model of population immunity to estimate IPV-induced immunity from 2024–2031 for 112 countries using either one or two doses of IPV. We projected immunity for current, 6–14, and 14–39 week schedules to find the optimal schedule and estimate the impact of interventions such as schedule changes and catch-ups. Under current schedules, estimated median serotype 2 population immunity in 2025 among children under five years of age is at 61% (IQR: 52%, 72%), rising to 71% (IQR: 57%, 80%) in 2031. The later 14–39 week schedule was optimal in all countries, with potential for the median immunity to rise to 78% (IQR: 66%, 85%) by 2031 if adopted by all countries in 2026. Eight countries would still have <50% immunity, rising to 65%−72% if catch-up campaigns with 80% coverage were implemented in 2030. The work is limited by the fact that IPV provides only a partial picture of total immunity where there has been emergency type-2 OPV use. Furthermore, national estimates may mask subnational coverage differences and pockets of extremely low immunity.ConclusionsUnder these estimates, IPV schedules and coverage are suboptimal in many countries. Those with a single dose should introduce a second on the 14&ndash
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Journal articleZanella MC, Gonçalves Cabecinhas AR, Julian TR, et al., 2026,
An integrated surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus infections
, Cmi Communications, Vol: 3Objectives We aimed to describe recent epidemiological trends of SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, using data from the Sentinella network for primary care consultations, hospital-based surveillance at Geneva University Hospitals and municipal wastewater surveillance conducted by Eawag, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology. Methods We described the temporal trends in weekly SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and RSV infections among primary care consultations, hospitalized patients and the mean normalized viral load per week for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and RSV from wastewater samples between 1 July 2022 and 30 April 2025. We used Kendall’s rank correlation (τ) to assess the correlation between the viral RNA loads in wastewater and SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, and RSV infections among hospitalized patients between 1 September 2024 and 30 April 2025. Results The period from September 2024 to April 2025 was the first extended winter season since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which SARS-CoV-2 activity remained consistently lower than previous seasons across all surveillance systems. In contrast, influenza activity was higher than in recent prior winter seasons. There was a decrease in the number of RSV hospitalizations during the 2024–2025 winter season. The associations between wastewater loads and infections were significant and positive for SARS-CoV-2 (τ = 0.75; p '0.01), influenza A (τ = 0.80; p '0.01), and RSV (τ = 0.68; p '0.01). Conclusions Our findings contribute to understanding the evolving epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to the two other respiratory viruses (influenza and RSV) across complementary surveillance systems.
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Journal articleVerwilghen DR, Pelosi A, Abbas M, et al., 2026,
Surgical site infection definitions consensus: a first step toward improving prevention in veterinary medicine.
, Am J Vet Res, Vol: 87OBJECTIVE: To establish specific veterinary surgical site infection (SSI) terminology to support the creation of consistent, comparable, and repeatable clinical and research datasets. METHODS: Establishment of SSI definitions by iterative Delphi questionnaires leading to a convergence of consensus opinion by a multidisciplinary panel of 32 specialists in large- and small-animal surgery (European College of Veterinary Surgeons, American College of Veterinary Surgeons), veterinary internal medicine (American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine, European College of Veterinary Internal Medicine, European College of Equine Internal Medicine), anesthesia (European College of Veterinary Anesthesia and Analgesia), critical care (American College of Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care, European College of Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care), dentistry (European Veterinary Dental College), microbiology, preventive medicine (American College of Veterinary Preventive Medicine), animal welfare (European College of Animal Welfare and Behavioural Medicine), and human infection control. Consensus was defined as agreement by a minimum of 75% of panel members. RESULTS: The panel defined 18 terms for veterinary use, including those for superficial, deep, and organ/space infections; surgical procedure; pyrexia; wound classification and closure; and agreements on SSI monitoring timeframes. CONCLUSIONS: A common clinical and research language appropriate to the veterinary field useable in future SSI surveillance practice has been established through expert consensus. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The use of a standard SSI language in veterinary practice is central to the future reliability of studies, their comparison, and the understanding of clinical risk factors in the development and prevention of SSI.
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Journal articleKoemen S, Faria NR, Bastos LS, et al., 2026,
Fast and trustworthy nowcasting of dengue fever: a case study using attention-based probabilistic neural networks in São Paulo, Brazil
, Epidemics, Vol: 54, ISSN: 1755-4365Nowcasting methods are crucial in infectious disease surveillance, as reporting delays often lead to underestimation of recent incidence and can impair timely public health decision-making. Accurate real-time estimates of case counts are essential for resource allocation, policy responses, and communication with the public. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic neural network (PNN) architecture, named NowcastPNN, to estimate occurred-but-not-yet-reported cases of infectious diseases, demonstrated here using dengue fever incidence in São Paulo, Brazil. The proposed model combines statistical modelling of the true number of cases, assuming a Negative Binomial (NB) distribution, with recent advances in machine learning and deep learning, such as the attention mechanism. Uncertainty intervals are obtained by sampling from the predicted NB distribution and using Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout. Using proper scoring rules for the prediction intervals, NowcastPNN achieves nearly a 30% reduction in losses compared to the second-best model among other state-of-the-art approaches. While our model requires a large training dataset (equivalent to two to four years of incidence counts) to outperform benchmarks, it is computationally cheap and outperforms alternative methods even with significantly fewer observations as input. These features make the NowcastPNN model a promising tool for nowcasting in epidemiological surveillance of arboviral threats and other domains involving right-truncated data.
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Journal articleMcCain K, Vicco A, Morgenstern C, et al., 2026,
A systematic review and meta-analysis of Zika virus epidemiology
, Nature Health, Vol: 1, Pages: 355-367, ISSN: 3005-0693Zika virus (ZIKV), classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization, is an Aedes-borne arbovirus that can cause neurological complications and birth defects in newborns of mothers infected during pregnancy. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies reporting ZIKV epidemiological parameters, transmission models and outbreaks (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) to characterize its transmissibility, seroprevalence, risk factors, disease sequelae and natural history. We performed meta-analyses of the proportions of congenital Zika syndrome, pregnancy loss among ZIKV-infected mothers and symptomatic cases. We extracted information from 574 studies. Across 418 included studies assigned a high-quality score, we extracted 969 parameters, 127 outbreak records and 154 models. Using random-effects models, we estimated proportions of congenital Zika syndrome (4.65%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.38–6.67%), pregnancy loss (2.48%, 95% CI: 1.62–3.78%) and symptomatic cases (51.20%, 95% CI: 38.00–64.23%). Seroprevalence estimates (n = 354) were retrieved beyond South America and French Polynesia. Basic reproduction number estimates (n = 77) ranged between 1.12 and 7.4. We found 66 human epidemiological delay estimates, including the intrinsic incubation period (n = 11, range: 4–12.1 days), infectious period (n = 15, range: 3–50 days), extrinsic incubation period (n = 22, range: 5.1–24.2 days) and serial interval (n = 27, range: 7.4–32.9 days).These data are available in the R package ‘epireview’ (version 1.4.5). We provide a comprehensive systematic summary of ZIKV epidemiology, revealing large heterogeneities and inconsistencies in the reporting of parameter estimates, study designs and parameter definitions and underscoring the need for standardized epidemiological definitions.
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Journal articleLong MB, New JM, Stobo J, et al., 2026,
Design and rationale of the AIR-NET trial: a randomised, open-label, multifactorial, multicentre, adaptive platform trial using a range of repurposed anti-inflammatory treatments to improve outcomes in patients with bronchiectasis within the EMBARC clinical research network.
, ERJ Open Res, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2312-0541BACKGROUND: Neutrophilic airway inflammation is associated with disease severity and exacerbation frequency in bronchiectasis. Neutrophil protease inhibition significantly reduced exacerbation rates in phase II and III trials in bronchiectasis, highlighting this disease feature as an important therapeutic target. Additional neutrophil targeting therapeutics are needed to reduce the burden of the disease. Herein, we describe the protocol for the AIR-NET trial, the first randomised, open-label, multifactorial, multicentre, adaptive platform trial for people with bronchiectasis, run via the EMBARC (European Multicentre Bronchiectasis Audit and Research Collaboration) network, to investigate the safety and efficacy of several repurposed anti-inflammatory treatments. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Participants with bronchiectasis confirmed by computed tomography, daily sputum production and evidence of active airway neutrophilic inflammation (based on a positive lateral flow test for neutrophil elastase (NE) activity), across 10 sites in the UK, will be randomised to one of several repurposed drugs with published evidence of effects on neutrophilic inflammation and acceptable safety profile (oral dose: disulfiram 400 mg once daily; dipyridamole 200 mg twice daily; doxycycline 100 mg once daily; n=42 per arm) or usual care, according to arm-specific eligibility criteria, and treated for 28 days. New arms will be added to the trial through an adaptive design. The primary end-point is change from baseline in sputum NE activity (a validated biomarker and surrogate of exacerbation risk) at day 28. Key secondary end-points include time-to-first exacerbation, quality of life questionnaires, neutrophil function and safety. SUMMARY: AIR-NET will establish a multi-centre network with integrated clinical and translational capabilities for the investigation of therapies in bronchiectasis aiming to identify key anti-inflammatory mechanisms and effective re-purposed treatments.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
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