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Journal articleDixon-Zegeye M, Walker M, Ramani A, et al., 2026,
HISTONCHO: A dataset of intervention histories for onchocerciasis control & elimination in sub-Saharan Africa
, Scientific Data, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2052-4463In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), onchocerciasis control has been implemented for many decades, beginning in 1974 under the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) and in 1995 in Central and East Africa (plus Liberia) under the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC). Since the establishment of the Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN) in 2016, data on mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin has been centrally compiled for all endemic countries at implementation unit (IU) level, beginning in 2013. This paper presents HISTONCHO, a dataset collating detailed information on interventions, including vector control, from 1975 through to 2022, using the ESPEN portal (2013–2022), regional and country reports, implementation partners’ records, and published literature. Reconstructing such intervention histories is crucial for an understanding of their evolution, modelling their impact, and tailoring future interventions. We discuss strengths and limitations associated with the ESPEN database, and how HISTONCHO can be improved to support modelling of intervention strategies as well as onchocerciasis control and elimination efforts by endemic country programmes.
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Journal articleImrie RM, Bissett LA, Raveendran S, et al., 2026,
Post-pandemic changes in population immunity have reduced the likelihood of emergence of zoonotic coronaviruses.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 17Infections by endemic viruses, and the vaccines used to control them, often provide cross-protection against related viruses, potentially altering the transmission dynamics and likelihood of emergence of new zoonotic viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we investigate how population immunity after the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus, termed SARS-CoV-X. To this end, we combined empirical cross-neutralisation data with mathematical modelling to identify key immunological and epidemiological factors shaping sarbecovirus emergence. We show that sera from individuals with different COVID-19 immunological histories contained cross-neutralising antibodies against the spike (S) protein of multiple zoonotic sarbecoviruses. Simulations parameterised by these data predict that the likelihood of emergence of a novel sarbecovirus has been reduced significantly by population cross-immunity, with outcomes determined by the extent of cross-protection and R0 of the novel virus. Preventative vaccination against SARS-CoV-X using available COVID-19 vaccines can help resist emergence even in the presence of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2. However, a theoretical vaccine with high specificity to SARS-CoV-2 can increase emergence probability by suppressing SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and, by extension, levels of natural cross-protection. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 circulation and vaccination have generated widespread immunity against related sarbecoviruses, creating an immunological barrier to novel sarbecovirus emergence in humans.
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PosterCooper E, Guzman V, Ward H, et al., 2026,
Defining Long Covid: Using illustration to bring to life people's experiences of persistent symptoms of Covid-19
, IPIC 2026 Annual Conference -
OtherJahn S, Fraser K, Gaythorpe KAM, et al., 2026,
Developing and Applying a Unified Weather and Climate Database to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Infectious Disease Transmission and Burden
<jats:p>Research at the intersection of climate, weather, and health is rapidly expanding and inherently interdisciplinary, requiring integration of information across multiple disciplines. This includes comprehensive, accessible, reliable, and harmonized datasets that combine high-quality observational data with bias-corrected and downscaled climate projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs), such as from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, despite the availability of numerous gridded observational datasets and pre-processed projections, individual products vary in strengths, limitations, and representations of fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns, which can substantially affect downstream modelling and projection of current and future health outcomes. Moreover, the operational scale of epidemiological analysis is typically defined by administrative units, rather than by regular grids, and therefore often relies on the inclusion of area-level estimates that are additionally weighted by indicators such as human population. Hence, spatially resolved weather and climate data, typically provided in specialized formats (e.g., NetCDF), generally require substantial preprocessing before they can be used for respective analysis.To address these challenges, we developed a tailored, quasi-global weather and climate dataset designed to support high-resolution infectious disease transmission modelling in tropical settings. Our dataset comprises (1) high-resolution (0.1°) daily climate projections between 60°N and 60°S, and (2) corresponding spatially averaged (population-weighted) area-level estimates at administrative unit levels 0-2 for over 100 countries. We therefore selected and evaluated multiple global observational datasets, including model- and satellite-based products such as ERA5 and CHIRPS, across heterogeneous, disease-relevant tropical study domains. The observational datasets showing the highest perfo
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Journal articleAbdalla L, Mata ASD, Fraser KJ, et al., 2026,
Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: information gaps and future steps
, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2398-502XYellow fever (YF) remains a significant public health threat in tropical regions, particularly in South America and Africa. The combined forces of climate change, land-use, urbanisation, globalisation, and insufficient surveillance and health infrastructure are driving the re-emergence and expansion of YF into new areas. While mathematical models have been used to estimate transmission risk, disease burden, and the impact of vaccination, there remains a crucial gap in mechanistic models that explicitly capture how climate and environmental changes directly influence YF transmission. To address this gap, we convened a workshop in Brazil as part of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium’s Climate Change programme, bringing together national and international experts. The workshop aimed to present current modelling approaches, identify key knowledge gaps, and develop strategies to improve data collection and model applicability. Discussions highlighted major uncertainties regarding vectors, non-human primates, surveillance sensitivity, vaccination, and climatic and environmental drivers. This paper synthesises the outcomes of the workshop, including priority areas for future research and recommendations for advancing mechanistic YF modelling in the context of climate change, with a focus on both Brazil and broader tropical regions.
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Journal articleNwankwo L, Maidment I, Periselneris J, et al., 2026,
Protocol for a systematic literature review and network meta-analysis of the evidence for therapies in allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA).
, Syst Rev, Vol: 15INTRODUCTION: Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) affects millions worldwide, yet current treatment approaches remain suboptimal due to a one-size-fits-all model that fails to account for the significant heterogeneity across affected populations. While corticosteroids and itraconazole are commonly prescribed, there are associated risks and uncertainties regarding efficacy. Additionally, the efficacy of alternatives such as newer and higher activity triazole antifungals, or the place of "biologic" therapies like anti-IL5 antagonists, has not been thoroughly investigated. OBJECTIVES: This review will assess treatment outcomes in patients with ABPA (Population) receiving antifungal or biologic therapies (Intervention) compared with corticosteroids, placebo, or alternative active treatments (Comparator), evaluating lung function (FEV₁), serological markers, exacerbation frequency, patient-reported outcomes, steroid-sparing effects, and adverse events (Outcomes) through a systematic review and network meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed studies. INCLUSION CRITERIA: All articles using the Population, Exposure/Intervention, Comparator, Outcomes, Duration, and Results (PECODR) framework related to human patients published in English from inception to the date of undertaking the study (present) will be included. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The following literature databases will be searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library Trials database, PubMed Central, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception to the present in collaboration with an experienced librarian. The primary researcher will screen the titles and abstracts; deduplication will be performed using Covidence®, and inclusion will be validated by a second checker. Quantitative analyses will be performed to summarise the results as means, frequency tables, and odds ratios of outcomes. Where there is sufficient data, a network meta-analysis will be conducted. The systematic review and network me
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Journal articleBates IH, Li SL, Parag KV, et al., 2026,
Spatial and social determinants of the 1857 yellow fever epidemic in Lisbon
, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1935-2727Despite the availability of a highly effective vaccine, yellow fever virus (YFV) is still endemic in 47 countries globally. Although disease due to YFV was first recorded in 1635, factors contributing to its spread remain poorly understood today. Using archival data from the nineteenth century, we digitalised and mapped the 1857 yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Lisbon, Portugal, to understand how transmission dynamics and spatial and environmental characteristics led to disparities in health outcomes between sociodemographic groups. We modelled the basic and effective reproduction number (R0 and Rt) and found that transmission dynamics throughout this pre-vaccination era epidemic are consistent with prevailing estimates (R0 ≃ 5). Transmission peaked at the end of October 1857 when YF was declared an epidemic, then declined until January 1858. YFV killed 4.2% of the population with infection attack rates ranging between 10.3-13.5%. Out of the 34 parishes in urban Lisbon, our hotspot analysis identified 15 statistically significant high-risk parishes near the coastline. Our maps, combined with a digital terrain model, show that the highest number of deaths occurred within connected streets confined in low-elevation built-up areas with homes. We discuss the potential role of wind and temperature in aiding mosquito dispersal across Lisbon, which were believed as the main historical environmental drivers of YF. More people died at home than in hospitals, and although working-aged men accounted for most fatalities, the highest probability of death was found among women working at home. Our study highlights the role of human-environment interactions in shaping a historical YF epidemic in a pre-vaccination urban setting and enhances our understanding of modern-day transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleBaggaley RF, Hooper CM, Silva L, et al., 2026,
Prevalence and risk factors for key infectious diseases amongst migrants to the UK: a systematic review.
, BMC Infect Dis, Vol: 26BACKGROUND: Migrants are at increased risk of infections including HIV, tuberculosis and viral hepatitis, with poorer outcomes. Early diagnosis and management can reduce morbidity, mortality and onward transmission. This systematic review summarises prevalence of HIV, latent and active tuberculosis and hepatitis B and C among UK migrants and evaluates associated risk factors. METHODS: PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched from 2004 to 11 June 2025. The review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines and registered with PROSPERO (registration CRD42024521191). Quality assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. High heterogeneity (I2 = 95.2%, 99.2%, 87.2%, 96.9% and 91.6% for IGRA, active TB, HIV, HBV and HCV yields, respectively) indicated that meta-analysis was not appropriate. The impact of risk factors on prevalence was explored through meta-regression and descriptive analysis. RESULTS: Of 2033 identified records, 36 were included, reporting Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) (n = 13), active TB (n = 10), HIV (n = 12), HBV (n = 16) and HCV (n = 11) test yields. An additional two publications excluded from the main analysis for reporting duplicate study data were included in the risk factor analysis because they stratified prevalence by additional risk factors. Highest yield was for IGRA which, excluding one lower prevalence outlier (6.9% (n = 1617)), was 15.1%-22.1%. There was high heterogeneity in active TB prevalence: 62-1,484/100,000. HIV prevalence among larger studies (n > 200) was 0.18%-0.48%. HBV prevalence was 0.00%-8.93% (all studies) and 1.06%-4.75% for larger studies (n > 1000). HCV prevalence was lower: 0.00%-1.67%, with only two of 11 included estimates above 0.50%. There was considerable heterogeneit
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Journal articleSilva L, Baggaley RF, Gogoi M, et al., 2026,
Promoting migrant health as a universal right in the United Kingdom.
, BMC Glob Public Health, Vol: 4Migrants arriving in the United Kingdom (UK), many of whom experience vulnerability before and during migration, face a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases shaped by cumulative exposures in their countries of origin, across the migration journey, and compounded by fragmented access to care upon arrival. Despite improvements in pre-entry health assessments, post-arrival provision in reception centres remains inconsistent, with significant gaps in infectious disease screening, mental health support, medication continuity, and timely registration with a general practitioner (GP). Community-led initiatives like Doctors of the World's Safe Surgeries and the Oxford Refugee Health Initiative promote inclusive healthcare access, yet remain limited in scale. Using a social determinants of health (SDH) lens, this perspective highlights how structural barriers-including overcrowded accommodation, language challenges, and unclear entitlements-undermine the effectiveness of existing health policies and widen inequalities. We propose an essential care package for UK migrant reception centres that integrates early screening, stable access to medicines, mental health assessment, environmental health measures, and robust continuity of care for non-communicable diseases through clear referral pathways into the National Health Service (NHS). Embedding this approach within current public health infrastructure would reduce preventable morbidity, strengthen health system efficiency, and advance the UK's commitment to Sustainable Development Goals. Strengthening care at the point of arrival is therefore critical to promoting health equity and ensuring that no one is left behind.
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Journal articleMcCain K, Vicco A, Morgenstern C, et al., 2026,
A systematic review and meta-analysis of Zika virus epidemiology
, Nature Health, Vol: 1, Pages: 355-367, ISSN: 3005-0693Zika virus (ZIKV), classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization, is an Aedes-borne arbovirus that can cause neurological complications and birth defects in newborns of mothers infected during pregnancy. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies reporting ZIKV epidemiological parameters, transmission models and outbreaks (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) to characterize its transmissibility, seroprevalence, risk factors, disease sequelae and natural history. We performed meta-analyses of the proportions of congenital Zika syndrome, pregnancy loss among ZIKV-infected mothers and symptomatic cases. We extracted information from 574 studies. Across 418 included studies assigned a high-quality score, we extracted 969 parameters, 127 outbreak records and 154 models. Using random-effects models, we estimated proportions of congenital Zika syndrome (4.65%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.38–6.67%), pregnancy loss (2.48%, 95% CI: 1.62–3.78%) and symptomatic cases (51.20%, 95% CI: 38.00–64.23%). Seroprevalence estimates (n = 354) were retrieved beyond South America and French Polynesia. Basic reproduction number estimates (n = 77) ranged between 1.12 and 7.4. We found 66 human epidemiological delay estimates, including the intrinsic incubation period (n = 11, range: 4–12.1 days), infectious period (n = 15, range: 3–50 days), extrinsic incubation period (n = 22, range: 5.1–24.2 days) and serial interval (n = 27, range: 7.4–32.9 days).These data are available in the R package ‘epireview’ (version 1.4.5). We provide a comprehensive systematic summary of ZIKV epidemiology, revealing large heterogeneities and inconsistencies in the reporting of parameter estimates, study designs and parameter definitions and underscoring the need for standardized epidemiological definitions.
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