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PosterCooper E, Guzman V, Ward H, et al., 2026,
Defining Long Covid: Using illustration to bring to life people's experiences of persistent symptoms of Covid-19
, IPIC 2026 Annual Conference -
OtherJahn S, Fraser K, Gaythorpe KAM, et al., 2026,
Developing and Applying a Unified Weather and Climate Database to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Infectious Disease Transmission and Burden
<jats:p>Research at the intersection of climate, weather, and health is rapidly expanding and inherently interdisciplinary, requiring integration of information across multiple disciplines. This includes comprehensive, accessible, reliable, and harmonized datasets that combine high-quality observational data with bias-corrected and downscaled climate projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs), such as from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, despite the availability of numerous gridded observational datasets and pre-processed projections, individual products vary in strengths, limitations, and representations of fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns, which can substantially affect downstream modelling and projection of current and future health outcomes. Moreover, the operational scale of epidemiological analysis is typically defined by administrative units, rather than by regular grids, and therefore often relies on the inclusion of area-level estimates that are additionally weighted by indicators such as human population. Hence, spatially resolved weather and climate data, typically provided in specialized formats (e.g., NetCDF), generally require substantial preprocessing before they can be used for respective analysis.To address these challenges, we developed a tailored, quasi-global weather and climate dataset designed to support high-resolution infectious disease transmission modelling in tropical settings. Our dataset comprises (1) high-resolution (0.1°) daily climate projections between 60°N and 60°S, and (2) corresponding spatially averaged (population-weighted) area-level estimates at administrative unit levels 0-2 for over 100 countries. We therefore selected and evaluated multiple global observational datasets, including model- and satellite-based products such as ERA5 and CHIRPS, across heterogeneous, disease-relevant tropical study domains. The observational datasets showing the highest perfo
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Journal articleAbdalla L, Mata ASD, Fraser KJ, et al., 2026,
Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: information gaps and future steps
, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2398-502XYellow fever (YF) remains a significant public health threat in tropical regions, particularly in South America and Africa. The combined forces of climate change, land-use, urbanisation, globalisation, and insufficient surveillance and health infrastructure are driving the re-emergence and expansion of YF into new areas. While mathematical models have been used to estimate transmission risk, disease burden, and the impact of vaccination, there remains a crucial gap in mechanistic models that explicitly capture how climate and environmental changes directly influence YF transmission. To address this gap, we convened a workshop in Brazil as part of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium’s Climate Change programme, bringing together national and international experts. The workshop aimed to present current modelling approaches, identify key knowledge gaps, and develop strategies to improve data collection and model applicability. Discussions highlighted major uncertainties regarding vectors, non-human primates, surveillance sensitivity, vaccination, and climatic and environmental drivers. This paper synthesises the outcomes of the workshop, including priority areas for future research and recommendations for advancing mechanistic YF modelling in the context of climate change, with a focus on both Brazil and broader tropical regions.
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Journal articleNwankwo L, Maidment I, Periselneris J, et al., 2026,
Protocol for a systematic literature review and network meta-analysis of the evidence for therapies in allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA).
, Syst Rev, Vol: 15INTRODUCTION: Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) affects millions worldwide, yet current treatment approaches remain suboptimal due to a one-size-fits-all model that fails to account for the significant heterogeneity across affected populations. While corticosteroids and itraconazole are commonly prescribed, there are associated risks and uncertainties regarding efficacy. Additionally, the efficacy of alternatives such as newer and higher activity triazole antifungals, or the place of "biologic" therapies like anti-IL5 antagonists, has not been thoroughly investigated. OBJECTIVES: This review will assess treatment outcomes in patients with ABPA (Population) receiving antifungal or biologic therapies (Intervention) compared with corticosteroids, placebo, or alternative active treatments (Comparator), evaluating lung function (FEV₁), serological markers, exacerbation frequency, patient-reported outcomes, steroid-sparing effects, and adverse events (Outcomes) through a systematic review and network meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed studies. INCLUSION CRITERIA: All articles using the Population, Exposure/Intervention, Comparator, Outcomes, Duration, and Results (PECODR) framework related to human patients published in English from inception to the date of undertaking the study (present) will be included. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The following literature databases will be searched: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library Trials database, PubMed Central, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception to the present in collaboration with an experienced librarian. The primary researcher will screen the titles and abstracts; deduplication will be performed using Covidence®, and inclusion will be validated by a second checker. Quantitative analyses will be performed to summarise the results as means, frequency tables, and odds ratios of outcomes. Where there is sufficient data, a network meta-analysis will be conducted. The systematic review and network me
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Journal articleBates IH, Li SL, Parag KV, et al., 2026,
Spatial and social determinants of the 1857 yellow fever epidemic in Lisbon
, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1935-2727Despite the availability of a highly effective vaccine, yellow fever virus (YFV) is still endemic in 47 countries globally. Although disease due to YFV was first recorded in 1635, factors contributing to its spread remain poorly understood today. Using archival data from the nineteenth century, we digitalised and mapped the 1857 yellow fever (YF) epidemic in Lisbon, Portugal, to understand how transmission dynamics and spatial and environmental characteristics led to disparities in health outcomes between sociodemographic groups. We modelled the basic and effective reproduction number (R0 and Rt) and found that transmission dynamics throughout this pre-vaccination era epidemic are consistent with prevailing estimates (R0 ≃ 5). Transmission peaked at the end of October 1857 when YF was declared an epidemic, then declined until January 1858. YFV killed 4.2% of the population with infection attack rates ranging between 10.3-13.5%. Out of the 34 parishes in urban Lisbon, our hotspot analysis identified 15 statistically significant high-risk parishes near the coastline. Our maps, combined with a digital terrain model, show that the highest number of deaths occurred within connected streets confined in low-elevation built-up areas with homes. We discuss the potential role of wind and temperature in aiding mosquito dispersal across Lisbon, which were believed as the main historical environmental drivers of YF. More people died at home than in hospitals, and although working-aged men accounted for most fatalities, the highest probability of death was found among women working at home. Our study highlights the role of human-environment interactions in shaping a historical YF epidemic in a pre-vaccination urban setting and enhances our understanding of modern-day transmission dynamics.
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Journal articleBaggaley RF, Hooper CM, Silva L, et al., 2026,
Prevalence and risk factors for key infectious diseases amongst migrants to the UK: a systematic review.
, BMC Infect Dis, Vol: 26BACKGROUND: Migrants are at increased risk of infections including HIV, tuberculosis and viral hepatitis, with poorer outcomes. Early diagnosis and management can reduce morbidity, mortality and onward transmission. This systematic review summarises prevalence of HIV, latent and active tuberculosis and hepatitis B and C among UK migrants and evaluates associated risk factors. METHODS: PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched from 2004 to 11 June 2025. The review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines and registered with PROSPERO (registration CRD42024521191). Quality assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. High heterogeneity (I2 = 95.2%, 99.2%, 87.2%, 96.9% and 91.6% for IGRA, active TB, HIV, HBV and HCV yields, respectively) indicated that meta-analysis was not appropriate. The impact of risk factors on prevalence was explored through meta-regression and descriptive analysis. RESULTS: Of 2033 identified records, 36 were included, reporting Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) (n = 13), active TB (n = 10), HIV (n = 12), HBV (n = 16) and HCV (n = 11) test yields. An additional two publications excluded from the main analysis for reporting duplicate study data were included in the risk factor analysis because they stratified prevalence by additional risk factors. Highest yield was for IGRA which, excluding one lower prevalence outlier (6.9% (n = 1617)), was 15.1%-22.1%. There was high heterogeneity in active TB prevalence: 62-1,484/100,000. HIV prevalence among larger studies (n > 200) was 0.18%-0.48%. HBV prevalence was 0.00%-8.93% (all studies) and 1.06%-4.75% for larger studies (n > 1000). HCV prevalence was lower: 0.00%-1.67%, with only two of 11 included estimates above 0.50%. There was considerable heterogeneit
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Journal articleSilva L, Baggaley RF, Gogoi M, et al., 2026,
Promoting migrant health as a universal right in the United Kingdom.
, BMC Glob Public Health, Vol: 4Migrants arriving in the United Kingdom (UK), many of whom experience vulnerability before and during migration, face a double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases shaped by cumulative exposures in their countries of origin, across the migration journey, and compounded by fragmented access to care upon arrival. Despite improvements in pre-entry health assessments, post-arrival provision in reception centres remains inconsistent, with significant gaps in infectious disease screening, mental health support, medication continuity, and timely registration with a general practitioner (GP). Community-led initiatives like Doctors of the World's Safe Surgeries and the Oxford Refugee Health Initiative promote inclusive healthcare access, yet remain limited in scale. Using a social determinants of health (SDH) lens, this perspective highlights how structural barriers-including overcrowded accommodation, language challenges, and unclear entitlements-undermine the effectiveness of existing health policies and widen inequalities. We propose an essential care package for UK migrant reception centres that integrates early screening, stable access to medicines, mental health assessment, environmental health measures, and robust continuity of care for non-communicable diseases through clear referral pathways into the National Health Service (NHS). Embedding this approach within current public health infrastructure would reduce preventable morbidity, strengthen health system efficiency, and advance the UK's commitment to Sustainable Development Goals. Strengthening care at the point of arrival is therefore critical to promoting health equity and ensuring that no one is left behind.
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Journal articleZanella MC, Gonçalves Cabecinhas AR, Julian TR, et al., 2026,
An integrated surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus infections
, Cmi Communications, Vol: 3Objectives We aimed to describe recent epidemiological trends of SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, using data from the Sentinella network for primary care consultations, hospital-based surveillance at Geneva University Hospitals and municipal wastewater surveillance conducted by Eawag, the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology. Methods We described the temporal trends in weekly SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and RSV infections among primary care consultations, hospitalized patients and the mean normalized viral load per week for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus (A/B), and RSV from wastewater samples between 1 July 2022 and 30 April 2025. We used Kendall’s rank correlation (τ) to assess the correlation between the viral RNA loads in wastewater and SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, and RSV infections among hospitalized patients between 1 September 2024 and 30 April 2025. Results The period from September 2024 to April 2025 was the first extended winter season since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which SARS-CoV-2 activity remained consistently lower than previous seasons across all surveillance systems. In contrast, influenza activity was higher than in recent prior winter seasons. There was a decrease in the number of RSV hospitalizations during the 2024–2025 winter season. The associations between wastewater loads and infections were significant and positive for SARS-CoV-2 (τ = 0.75; p '0.01), influenza A (τ = 0.80; p '0.01), and RSV (τ = 0.68; p '0.01). Conclusions Our findings contribute to understanding the evolving epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to the two other respiratory viruses (influenza and RSV) across complementary surveillance systems.
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Journal articleGray E, Cooper L, Ramirez Gonzalez A, et al., 2026,
Estimating population immunity against serotype-two poliomyelitis from the inactivated polio vaccine in routine immunization across 112 countries: a modelling study
, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1549-1277BackgroundTo mitigate the risk of outbreaks of serotype 2 poliomyelitis after withdrawal of this serotype from oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 2016, inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) was introduced into the routine immunization (RI) programmes of all countries using OPV. Since 2022, WHO has recommended a 2-dose schedule, with a first dose at 14 weeks of age followed by a second dose at least 4 months later (e.g., 14–39 week schedule), although an earlier schedule may be adopted, despite lower immunogenicity, if vaccine coverage is low at older ages.Methods and findingsWe combined published data on type-2 IPV seroconversion with age, national RI coverage estimates, dose introduction dates, and country-specific schedules using a cohort model of population immunity to estimate IPV-induced immunity from 2024–2031 for 112 countries using either one or two doses of IPV. We projected immunity for current, 6–14, and 14–39 week schedules to find the optimal schedule and estimate the impact of interventions such as schedule changes and catch-ups. Under current schedules, estimated median serotype 2 population immunity in 2025 among children under five years of age is at 61% (IQR: 52%, 72%), rising to 71% (IQR: 57%, 80%) in 2031. The later 14–39 week schedule was optimal in all countries, with potential for the median immunity to rise to 78% (IQR: 66%, 85%) by 2031 if adopted by all countries in 2026. Eight countries would still have <50% immunity, rising to 65%−72% if catch-up campaigns with 80% coverage were implemented in 2030. The work is limited by the fact that IPV provides only a partial picture of total immunity where there has been emergency type-2 OPV use. Furthermore, national estimates may mask subnational coverage differences and pockets of extremely low immunity.ConclusionsUnder these estimates, IPV schedules and coverage are suboptimal in many countries. Those with a single dose should introduce a second on the 14&ndash
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Journal articleChindelevitch L, Hedman ÅK, Bichko D, et al., 2026,
ReverseGWAS identifies combined phenotypes associated with a genotype in GWA studies
, Bioinformatics, Vol: 42, ISSN: 1367-4803MotivationTraditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) aim to uncover the genetic variants associated with a single phenotype of interest (typically a disease), and to elucidate its genotypic architecture. However, many of today’s GWAS simultaneously measure multiple related phenotypes, leading to the possibility of pursuing the reverse aim of elucidating the “phenotypic architecture” of a single genetic variant. In other words, we may ask what combination of measured phenotypes is associated with a given genotypic variant. ReverseGWAS is an algorithmic platform for answering such questions in the context of large-scale multi-phenotype GWAS.ResultsWe demonstrate the effectiveness of ReverseGWAS on simulated data, showing its ability to identify logical combinations of phenotypes with a reasonable amount of noise. We then apply it to a selection of combined phenotypes from the UK Biobank, obtaining 719 candidate associations using autoimmune diseases and 205 using common ICD10 codes. We find that the majority of these associations (546/719 and 111/205, respectively) successfully replicate in an independent cohort, FinnGen.AvailabilityThe source code of ReverseGWAS is freely available to non-commercial users as an installable R package at https://github.com/Leonardini/rgwas.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
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