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Journal articleMorel G, Pham A, Morgenstern C, et al., 2026,
An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 could impact the dairy cattle sector and the broader economy in the United States
, Communications Earth & Environment, ISSN: 2662-4435The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle poses substantial risks to public health, economic sustainability of farming, and global food systems. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we simulate its short- to medium-term impacts on Gross Domestic Product and other macro-economic outcomes for the US and its main trading partners. We simulate impacts under the current situation and realistic and reasonable worst-case scenarios. We estimate domestic economic losses ranging between 0.06% and 0.9% of US GDP, with losses to the dairy sector ranging between 3.4% and 20.6%. Trading partners increase dairy production to compensate for the loss. Current government subsidies are about 1.2% (95% HDI: 1% to 1.4%) of output losses, and likely insufficient to incentivise farmers to step up surveillance and biosecurity for mitigating the possible emergence of H5N1 strains with pandemic potential into human populations.
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Journal articleRhodes J, Fisher M, 2026,
Emerging terbinafine-resistant Trichophyton indotineae between 2018 and 2023: a multinational genomic epidemiology study
, The Lancet Microbe, ISSN: 2666-5247 -
Journal articleBellekom B, Troman C, Fitz S, et al., 2026,
Comparison of the sensitivity of targeted and untargeted (metagenomic) methods for the detection of viral pathogens in wastewater.
, Sci Total Environ, Vol: 1013Timely and accurate pathogen detection is critical for the successful implementation of wastewater surveillance and has broad implications for public health. A wide range of surveillance tools are currently available, offering both quantitative and qualitative insights into the wastewater virome. Careful consideration of molecular methodology is required to successfully implement an effective wastewater surveillance scheme. Using SARS-CoV-2 as a model organism, we compared detection success across multiple approaches, including targeted (RT-PCR, qPCR, random priming RT-PCR) and target-agnostic (Rapid SMART-9N metagenomics) methods. We also estimated the copy number required for reliable detection, examined how the ratio of target to off-target genomes in wastewater affects detection and genome coverage using metagenomics, and assessed the efficacy of hybrid capture enrichment of target genomes in improving metagenomic detection. Our results show significant differences between methods, targeted RT-PCR and qPCR were more likely (68 % and 65 % respectively) to detect SARS-CoV-2 than target agnostic approaches. The inclusion of carrier RNA during extraction significantly increased the likelihood of target detection. Our target-agnostic metagenomic approach was consistently unable to detect our target, and, even in the presence of high concentrations that are atypical for wastewater, detection was limited. Target enrichment increased SARS-CoV-2 detection and maximum coverage by metagenomics (SMART-9N), though was outperformed by targeted amplicon sequencing. Overall, our findings support the use of targeted approaches for the routine surveillance of viral pathogens in wastewater. Whilst metagenomics provides broad insights into the virome, enrichment strategies are essential when using it to detect specific viruses, particularly in complex wastewater matrices.
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Journal articleLeelavanich D, Dorigatti I, Turner H, 2026,
The economic burden of dengue: a systematic literature review of unit costs for non-fatal episodes treated in the formal healthcare system
, BMC Infectious Diseases, ISSN: 1471-2334Background: Dengue, a vector-borne disease caused by the dengue virus, has emerged as a global public health concern, given the tenfold rise in reported cases over the last two decades. In light of the upcoming dengue interventions, country-specific cost-of-illness estimates are required to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions against dengue. This study aims to conduct an updated systematic review of dengue cost-of-illness studies, extracting the relevant data, and conducting regression analysis to explore potential factors contributing to the cost variations among countries. Methods: We used the MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science databases to systematically search for published dengue cost-of-illness studies reporting primary data on costs per dengue episode. A descriptive analysis was conducted across all extracted studies. Linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between the GDP per capita and cost per episode. The quality of the included studies was also assessed. Results: Fifty-six studies were included, of which 22 used the societal perspective. The reported total cost per episode ranged from $15.0 for outpatients in Burkina Faso to $9,386.1 for intensive care unit patients in Mexico. Linear regression analysis revealed that the cost of dengue illness varies significantly across countries and regions, and was positively related to the setting’s GDP per capita. The quality assessment demonstrated that improvements are needed in future studies, particularly in the reporting of the methodology. Conclusions: Cost of dengue illness varies widely across countries and regions. Future research should focus on understanding other drivers of cost variations beyond GDP per capita to improve the cost estimates for economic evaluation studies. The results presented in this study can serve as crucial input parameters for future economic evaluations, supporting decision makers in allocating resources for dengue in
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Journal articleStapley JN, Basanez M-G, Ramani A, et al., 2026,
Modelling the effects of immigration on the re-introduction of onchocerciasis
, Parasites and Vectors, ISSN: 1756-3305Background Onchocerciasis is a filarial neglected tropical disease targeted by the World Health Organization for elimination (interruption) of transmission (EOT), principally by mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Variable effectiveness and success of MDA, among other factors, has led to a markedly heterogeneous contemporary spatial landscape of endemicity and transmission, with some foci having achieved or nearing EOT, while in others, transmission persists despite decades of MDA or has only recently been identified. Communities reaching EOT or free from infection are thus vulnerable to re-introduction of infection imported by immigrants from areas with ongoing transmission.Methods We use the stochastic, individual-based EPIONCHO-IBM transmission model to quantify the risk of transmission persistence resulting from importation events and characterise the dynamics of ensuing onchocerciasis outbreaks in terms of microfilarial prevalence (in all ages) and anti-Ov16 seroprevalence (in children aged 5-9 years) in infection-free communities with local populations of blackfly vectors.Results We show how the vulnerability of infection-free communities depends on their population size, the local annual biting rate (ABR, number bites/person/year) and on the magnitude of importation events, defined by the number of immigrants arriving in the community and their worm burdens. We show that small communities with modest ABRs are particularly vulnerable to transmission persistence following importation, with risk exacerbated by the magnitude of infection importation. We illustrate that onchocerciasis outbreak dynamics can be protracted, with seroprevalence in children often taking substantially longer than the currently recommended 3-5 years of post-treatment surveillance(PTS) to exceed 5%. Conclusions Our findings highlight the vulnerability of infection-free communities to introduction/re-introduction of infection and suggest that proposed PTS durations may need to
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Journal articleVerity R, Cori A, Mishra S, et al., 2026,
Robert Verity, Samir Bhatt, Anne Cori, Seth Flaxman, and Swapnil Mishra’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response’ by Wood et al.
, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol: 189, Pages: 117-119, ISSN: 0964-1998 -
Journal articleWhitaker M, Elliott J, Gerard-Ursin I, et al., 2026,
Profiling vaccine attitudes and subsequent uptake in 1·1 million people in England: a nationwide cohort study
, The Lancet, ISSN: 0140-6736BackgroundDespite highly effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy persisted in some populations in England during the pandemic, with rates and motivations for hesitancy varying by demographic group. Addressing the drivers of vaccine hesitancy through targeted interventions in hesitant groups is a public health priority for better and more rapid control of disease spread. We aimed to characterise the determinants and subtypes of vaccine hesitancy and identify more persistent forms of hesitancy via analysis of vaccine uptake in a large cross-sectional cohort with linked National Health Service (NHS) data.MethodsWe conducted an initial cross-sectional analysis of vaccine hesitancy at baseline, followed by a longitudinal analysis of vaccine uptake in the hesitant cohort. We analysed survey data from the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) studies, which monitored the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England during the COVID-19 pandemic at regular intervals from May 1, 2020, to March 31, 2022, in random samples of the population. Participants self-reported detailed sociodemographic information, vaccination status, and attitudes towards vaccination. Participants were classified as hesitant if they reported that they had refused, planned to refuse, or had not yet decided whether to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Participants who said they were unvaccinated when NHS records showed that they had been vaccinated were excluded from further analysis. The primary outcome of the cross-sectional analysis was vaccine hesitancy. Longitudinal analysis of vaccine uptake was done in participants in the hesitant cohort who consented to the use of linked NHS vaccination records to track their vaccination history after the survey, with post-survey vaccination as the outcome. Consensus clustering was used to categorise reasons for vaccine hesitancy, and cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses used logistic regression models to identify demographic pr
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Journal articleAli Z, Abubakar I, Amegah AK, et al., 2026,
Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Africa: an international collaboration for locally led research and action.
, Lancet, Vol: 407, Pages: 185-194Climate change inflicts substantial economic damage on developing African nations, threatening progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals. There are synergies between actions needed to tackle climate change and other ongoing development priorities for Africa, including infectious disease control, facilitating clean energy access, reducing air pollution, tackling malnutrition and food insecurity, and providing universal health coverage. Action to protect human health against climate change needs to be integrated into all systems that are responsible for delivering essential services and implementing policies across all sectors that underpin the attainment of key development priorities for Africa. These systems include the Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union's 2063 Agenda for building The Africa We Want, and the ongoing negotiations and work programmes in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adequate stocktaking of and access to robust data and scientific evidence is needed to support this effort and guide priorities for policies that protect and promote health and for monitoring progress over time. In response to this need, the Lancet Countdown is launching a new initiative to bring together a transdisciplinary research collaboration to help build regional capacity, strengthen existing networks, generate evidence, and mobilise data across numerous domains at the climate change and health nexus in Africa.
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Journal articleDiaz AV, Diouf ND, Léger E, et al., 2026,
Variable efficacy of praziquantel among Schistosoma-infected ruminants of northern Senegal-a drug trial and population genetic study across two contrasting epidemiological regions.
, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 381While efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridization in sub-Saharan Africa has only begun to be appreciated. Recent research revealed widescale use and misuse of praziquantel (PZQ) in livestock among subsistence farmers within West Africa, in response to the often high morbidities and mortalities, and hence socioeconomic impact, of animal schistosomiasis. Such findings raised policy discussion into the potential need to formalize livestock schistosomiasis treatments, balanced against the necessity to protect against PZQ resistance. Here, we present results of an anthelmintic efficacy trial in which 25 mg kg-1 of veterinary-formula PZQ was given orally to naturally Schistosoma spp-infected domestic ruminants of northern Senegal. Miracidial reduction rates revealed acceptable efficacy levels within cattle infected with S. bovis, but near zero efficacies in goats and sheep infected with S. curassoni and/or hybrids. Furthermore, increased miracidial output post-PZQ was observed among several individuals, particularly within sheep. There was a significant increase in body condition in both cattle and sheep post-PZQ. Microsatellite molecular markers of parasites from bovines indicated a greater level of population genetic differentiation between pre- and post-PZQ samples than between villages, with a genetic signature of inbreeding in one village with the lowest PZQ efficacy. We discuss our findings in terms of their implications and applications towards reaching the WHO elimination targets and the need for future One Health research. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue 'Parasite evolution and impact in action: exploring the importance and control of hybrid schistosomes in Africa and beyond'.
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Journal articleAnderson RM, 2026,
Preface
, Philosophical Transactions B, Vol: 381, ISSN: 0962-8436
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
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