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Journal articleStone J, Mutai KK, Artenie A, et al., 2025,
The impact of cuts in the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief funding for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study
, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 12, Pages: e712-e721, ISSN: 2352-3018BackgroundIn January, 2025, the US Government issued a directive, pausing all foreign aid programmes. This directive included a 90-day pausing of all US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding for HIV oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) except for pregnant and breastfeeding women, with a return to funding for PrEP looking increasingly unlikely. We aimed to estimate the impact of a funding pause for PrEP on HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsIn this mathematical modelling study, we developed a static HIV transmission model incorporating PrEP, parameterised with estimates of population size, HIV prevalence and incidence, and PrEP effectiveness for different subpopulations (including key populations) in each PEPFAR-funded sub-Saharan African country. Key populations were men who have sex with men, female sex workers, transgender women, and people who inject drugs. We used PEPFAR reporting on numbers of people in different subpopulations returning for oral PrEP for each country in July to September, 2024, as the estimated number using oral PrEP provided by PEPFAR. For each country and subpopulation, we modelled the relative and absolute increase in new primary HIV infections resulting from removing this funded PrEP for a year and the number of secondary infections that could result from these primary infections during the next 5 years.FindingsTowards the end of 2024, 719 384 individuals who were not breastfeeding or pregnant, including 205 868 people from key populations, received PEPFAR-funded PrEP across 28 sub-Saharan African countries. The estimated proportion of HIV-negative key population individuals receiving PEPFAR-funded PrEP (ie, the coverage) ranged from 2·6% (95% uncertainty interval 2·0–3·4) in people who inject drugs to 5·0% (4·5–5·9) in female sex workers. Estimated coverage among non-key population men was less than 0·1% (<0·1 to <0·1) and in wo
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Journal articlePatel A, Jofre-Bonet M, Hauck K, et al., 2025,
Broadening the lens: a commentary on Sheard and Cauana-Finkel's account of women's progress in UK academic health economics
, Social Science and Medicine, Vol: 382, ISSN: 0277-9536 -
Journal articleWatson OJ, Tran TN-A, Zupko RJ, et al., 2025,
Global risk of selection and spread of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 gene deletions.
, Nat Med, Vol: 31, Pages: 3372-3379Since their first detection in 2010, Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites lacking the P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 gene (pfhrp2) have been observed in 40 of 47 surveyed countries, as documented by the World Health Organization. These genetic deletions reduce detection by the most widely used rapid diagnostic tests, prompting three countries to switch to alternative diagnostics. However, manufacturing of alternative rapid diagnostic tests has not been scaled up and there are no World Health Organization-prequalified combination tests that use P. falciparum Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase. The continuing spread of pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 (pfhrp2/3) deletions threatens malaria control, creating an emerging public health crisis. Here we use mathematical modeling informed by current pfhrp2/3 deletion prevalence and a literature review to assess the global risk of pfhrp2/3 deletions. We identify ten priority countries for surveillance and predict that the primary spread in Africa will move southward from the Horn of Africa through East Africa within 20 years. Despite variation in modeled timelines due to uncertainty in model parameters, four countries yet to switch rapid diagnostic tests are consistently classified as high risk under a range of model assumptions. This updated model offers refined predictions to guide pfhrp2/3 policy and prioritize future surveillance efforts and innovation.
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Journal articleKamgno J, Adeleke M, Basáñez M-G, et al., 2025,
Vector-borne helminthiases: a road map for current and future research to support control and elimination in sub-Saharan Africa.
, Lancet Infect Dis, Vol: 25, Pages: e555-e604 -
Journal articleDorigatti I, Gaythorpe KAM, Cox VM, et al., 2025,
Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change.
, Trends Mol Med, Vol: 31, Pages: 885-894The transmission potential of arboviruses is extremely sensitive to environmental conditions. This sensitivity is due to both their intimate relationship with ectothermic vectors and, in many cases, also to the involvement of multiple host species in zoonotic transmission cycles. Here, we review how climate change will alter the transmission ecology and risk of these important infections. The challenge of predicting how climate change will impact these systems is daunting, but the need for tools to manage arbovirus risk under climate change is urgent and imperative. We argue that the development of climate-driven mechanistic models of disease transmission informed by empirical surveillance data is urgently needed to inform future responses and for generating the evidence that policy needs to tackle this global public health risk.
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Journal articleScheidwasser N, Poulsen LL, Leow PR, et al., 2025,
Deep learning from videography as a tool for measuring E. coli infection in poultry.
, R Soc Open Sci, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2054-5703Poultry farming is threatened by regular outbreaks of Escherichia coli (E. coli) that lead to significant economic losses and public health risks. However, traditional surveillance methods often lack sensitivity and scalability. Early detection of infected poultry using minimally invasive procedures is thus essential for preventing epidemics. To that end, we leverage recent advancements in computer vision, employing deep learning-based tracking to detect behavioural changes associated with E. coli infection in a case-control trial comprising two groups of 20 broiler chickens: (i) a healthy control group and (ii) a group infected with a pathogenic E. coli field strain from the poultry industry. More specifically, kinematic features derived from deep learning-based tracking data revealed markedly reduced activity in the challenged group compared with the negative control. These findings were validated by lower mean optical flow in the infected flock, suggesting reduced movement and activity, and post-mortem physiological markers of inflammation that confirmed the severity of infection in the challenged group. Overall, this study demonstrates that deep learning-based tracking offers a promising solution for real-time monitoring and early infection detection in poultry farming, with the potential to help reduce economic losses and mitigate public health risks associated with infectious disease outbreaks in poultry.
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Journal articlePenn MJ, Donnelly CA, Bhatt S, 2025,
Continuous football player tracking from discrete broadcast data.
, R Soc Open Sci, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2054-5703Player tracking data remain out of reach for many professional football teams, as their video feeds are not sufficiently high quality for computer vision technologies to be used. To help bridge this gap, we present a method that can estimate continuous full-pitch tracking data from discrete data made from broadcast footage. Such data could be collected by clubs or players at a similar cost to event data, which are widely available down to the semi-professional level. We test our method using open-source tracking data and include a version that can be applied to a large set of over 200 games with such discrete data.
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Journal articleStover J, Sonneveldt E, Tam Y, et al., 2025,
Effects of reductions in US foreign assistance on HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal and child health: a modelling study.
, Lancet Glob Health, Vol: 13, Pages: e1669-e1680BACKGROUND: The USA has traditionally been the largest donor to health programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In January 2025, almost all such funding was stopped and prospects for its resumption are uncertain. The suddenness of the funding cuts makes it difficult for national health programmes in LMICs to adapt. We aimed to estimate the impact of these cuts on deaths and other outcomes (new infections, number of family planning users, and unplanned pregnancies) for four health areas that have been a focus of a substantial amount of US foreign assistance: HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal and child health. METHODS: We applied established mathematical models to the countries receiving US foreign assistance in each domain to estimate health impacts over the period 2025 to 2030. We used six models of HIV, three different approaches to estimate family planning impact, and one model each for tuberculosis and maternal and child health, applying these models to as many as 80 countries. We compared model projections assuming constant funding (status quo) with projections assuming complete elimination of US funding in each country. Some models also considered partial cuts or restoration of funding over time. FINDINGS: A complete cessation of US funding without replacement by other sources would lead to drastic increases in deaths from 2025 to 2030: 4·1 million (range 1·6-6·6) additional AIDS-related deaths across 55 countries, 606 900 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 466 000-768 800) additional tuberculosis deaths across 79 countries, 40-55 million additional unplanned pregnancies and 12-16 million unsafe abortions across 51 countries, and 2·5 million (1·3-4·5) additional child deaths from causes other than HIV and tuberculosis across 24 countries. Restoration of funding for HIV treatment but not prevention would avoid most of the increase in deaths but still result in nearly 1 million more new HIV
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Journal articleHendier L, Soule H, Abbas M, et al., 2025,
Evaluation of bacterial survival on inert surfaces in a hyperbaric environment.
, Diving Hyperb Med, Vol: 55, Pages: 231-235, ISSN: 1833-3516INTRODUCTION: Surface cleaning and hand hygiene within hyperbaric chambers are challenging because of the risk of fire with currently used products containing alcohol or glycerine. This study aimed to investigate if hyperbaric conditions could have inhibitory effects on bacteria present on inert materials. METHODS: We deposited Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) and Escherichia coli (E. coli) on inert materials in an experimental chamber (Comex1200Alu) and compressed the chamber environment with air (253 kPa, 95 minutes) (referred to as indoor). The control was contaminated materials placed outside the chamber (referred to as outdoor). We chose inert materials including plastic, metal, and seat upholstery (imitation leather). We measured bacterial growth and survival and compared the groups using a Student's t-test. RESULTS: Regardless of the surface types tested, there were no significant differences in bacterial reduction between indoor and outdoor conditions for either E. coli or S. aureus and any of the materials (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We found that pressurised air (253 kPa for 95 minutes) has neither proliferative nor bactericidal action on S. aureus and E. coli colonies deposited on inert surfaces compared to those present outside a hyperbaric chamber in normobaric air conditions.
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Journal articleDjègbè NDC, Da DF, Somé BM, et al., 2025,
Exploring near-infrared spectroscopy ability to predict the age and species of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes from different environmental conditions in Burkina Faso
, Malaria Journal, Vol: 24, ISSN: 1475-2875BackgroundNear infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has shown ability in previous studies to predict age and species of laboratory-reared and wild mosquitoes with moderate to high accuracy. To validate the technique as a routine tool, it is necessary to assess NIRS accuracy on these variables under different environmental conditions susceptible to affect the mosquito cuticle and interfere with the machine accuracy. This study investigated the influence of environmental conditions on NIRS accuracy to determine the age and species of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.).MethodsEnvironmental conditions of three important seasonal periods in Burkina Faso covering the onset, the peak and the end of the rainy season were mimicked in the laboratory using incubators. Emerged An. gambiae s.s. and An. coluzzii from laboratory colonies were reared in each period using temperature and relative humidity for predicting mosquito species by NIRS. Wild An. gambiae s.l. (n = 3788) were caught during the 3 different periods described above and analysed by NIRS to predict Anopheles species. Furthermore, first generation of wild Anopheles (n = 1014) was used to assess NIRS ability to classify mosquito age in each environmental condition. All data analysis were performed using a binomial logistic regression model.ResultsNIRS discriminated between laboratory-reared Anopheles with 83% of accuracy independently of any environmental condition. Similar trend was found in wild-caught Anopheles. NIRS accuracies varied slightly in laboratory Anopheles (77–85%) and more strongly in their field counterparts (67–84%). In both cases, models developed from the season of interest were more accurate than models trained with insectary conditions or from a different period of the year, indicating temperature and humidity can impact NIRS accuracy. Models derived from laboratory-mosquitoes reared under fluctuating environmental conditions predicted field-derived mosquito spec
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