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  • Journal article
    Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Anderson RMet al., 2003,

    Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

    , BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol: 3, ISSN: 1471-2334

    Background: Past projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years.Methods: A detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues.Results: Our results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene), with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9–540) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates (best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10–2,600) but remains lower than previous projections.Conclusions: The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline.
  • Conference paper
    Baguelin M, Le Fèvre J, Richard JP, 2003,

    A formalism for models with a metadynamically varying structure

    , Pages: 451-456

    We present hereafter a formalism for system with adaptive structure. The axiomatic structure is fully detailed. We then apply it to a biological problem: the modelling of the problem of coevolution in a bacteria-phage system. The results presenting show how this system organises in a quasi-species like structure under darwinian evolution.
  • Journal article
    Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RMet al., 2003,

    Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK

    , PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 270, Pages: 689-698, ISSN: 0962-8452
  • Journal article
    Trotter CL, Gay NJ, 2003,

    Analysis of longitudinal bacterial carriage studies accounting for sensitivity of swabbing: an application to Neisseria meningitidis.

    , Epidemiol Infect, Vol: 130, Pages: 201-205, ISSN: 0950-2688

    Longitudinal carriage studies of colonizing bacteria such as Neisseria meningitidis can provide important insights into the transmission dynamics of these organisms. Carriage is detected by culturing from a nasopharyngeal swab, but the sensitivity of this technique is low and varies between studies. This paper applies a statistical method for estimating the sensitivity of swabbing, infection rate, recovery rate and initial prevalence of carriage to three longitudinal carriage studies of N. meningitidis. These parameters and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using maximum likelihood techniques. The sensitivity of swabbing was estimated to be 60-83% and this should be taken into account when interpreting carriage studies. The estimates of force of infection and recovery rates seem to be consistent with estimates from more traditional methods. Differences in the parameter estimates between datasets may be due to differences in study design. This method could be used to assist in the design of future carriage studies.
  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, Mallett S, Jackson H, Roberts N, Ward Pet al., 2003,

    A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals

    , JOURNAL OF ANTIMICROBIAL CHEMOTHERAPY, Vol: 51, Pages: 977-990, ISSN: 0305-7453
  • Journal article
    Trotter CL, Ramsay ME, Slack MPE, 2003,

    Rising incidence of Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in England and Wales indicates a need for a second catch-up vaccination campaign.

    , Commun Dis Public Health, Vol: 6, Pages: 55-58, ISSN: 1462-1843

    The incidence of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease in the UK fell rapidly following the introduction of routine vaccination in 1992 and the implementation of a catch-up campaign in children under 4 years old in 1992-93. However, since 1999 the number of cases of Hib has been increasing, and in 2002 there were 134 cases in 0-4 year olds (266 in all ages). While still much less than the prevaccine burden of disease (over 800 cases a year in 0-4 year olds), this increase in incidence is worrying and has sparked a range of detailed investigations. In February 2003, the Department of Health announced a second catch-up campaign offering all children between 6 months and 4 years a further dose of Hib vaccine. The epidemiology of Hib disease in England and Wales between 1990 and 2002 is reviewed here to provide a context for this public health response.
  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, Galvani AP, Bush RM, 2003,

    Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution

    , NATURE, Vol: 422, Pages: 428-433, ISSN: 0028-0836
  • Journal article
    Trotter C, Borrow R, Andrews N, Miller Eet al., 2003,

    Seroprevalence of meningococcal serogroup C bactericidal antibody in England and Wales in the pre-vaccination era.

    , Vaccine, Vol: 21, Pages: 1094-1098, ISSN: 0264-410X

    Sera from an age-stratified sample of 1689 individuals, submitted to the PHLS Seroepidemiology Unit between 1996 and 1999 were tested for serum bactericidal antibodies to serogroup C meningococci. Titres decreased during infancy, presumably as maternal antibody waned, and increased in older teenagers, the peak age of meningococcal carriage. The prevalence of antibody titres greater than or equal to 8 was highest in adults, with an average of 25% of adults 25 years old or above with titres above this putative protective level. In the absence of vaccination, antibody may be generated from periods of carriage of serogroup C meningococci, from other meningococcal strains sharing non-capsular antigens, and other cross-reactive organisms. The inverse relationship between disease incidence and the prevalence of 'protective' antibody titres as described by Goldschneider et al. appears more consistent with a titre of > or =8 rather than > or =128, although the proportions 'protected' are much lower here than in Goldschneider's study. This study provides baseline antibody levels which will facilitate the evaluation of the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccination programme.
  • Journal article
    McKee D, Atkinson D, Collings SE, Eaton JW, Gill AB, Harvey I, Hatton K, Heyes T, Wilson D, Moss Bet al., 2003,

    Response of freshwater microcosm communities to nutrients, fish, and elevated temperature during winter and summer

    , LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, Vol: 48, Pages: 707-722, ISSN: 0024-3590
  • Journal article
    Ramsay ME, Andrews NJ, Trotter CL, Kaczmarski EB, Miller Eet al., 2003,

    Herd immunity from meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccination in England: database analysis.

    , BMJ, Vol: 326, Pages: 365-366

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