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  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, Nokes DJ, Anderson RM, 1996,

    Dynamical complexity in age-structured models of the transmission of the measles virus: epidemiological implications at high levels of vaccine uptake

    , Math Biosci, Vol: 138, Pages: 101-130, ISSN: 0025-5564

    This article explores the effect of increasingly finely stratified age structure on the dynamical properties of deterministic metapopulation models of the transmission of the measles virus. The dynamical simplicity of earlier age-structured models is shown to break down once the age-specific force of infection is no longer assumed to be constant across all child age classes below 5 years of age. While the biennial epidemics characteristic of earlier models are still observed, additional higher period stable cycles arise and coexist with the biennial cycle. The existence of multiple stable limit cycles necessarily implies model sensitivity on initial conditions, and for certain parameter values, chaotic dynamics are observed. Using a novel parameterization of the magnitude of seasonal forcing we are also able to make more biologically relevant comparisons between the dynamics of age- and non-age-structured models than have hitherto been possible. The epidemiological significance of these results is discussed, and we demonstrate that perturbations of the kind produced by intensive vaccination programs can shift transmission dynamics between biennial and triennial cycles. The possible implications of this work for studies of intermittency and infection persistence are also considered.
  • Journal article
    DONNELLY CA, 1995,

    THE SPATIAL-ANALYSIS OF COVARIATES IN A STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY

    , STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, Vol: 14, Pages: 2393-2409, ISSN: 0277-6715
  • Journal article
    Gregson S, Zhuwau T, Anderson RM, Chimbadzwa T, Chiwandiwa SKet al., 1995,

    Age and religion selection biases in HIV-1 prevalence data from antenatal clinics in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

    , Cent Afr J Med, Vol: 41, Pages: 339-346, ISSN: 0008-9176

    Sera from 487 women attending antenatal clinics in two areas of Manicaland were tested for the presence of HIV-1 infection. In the Honde Valley and Rusitu Valley areas, 24,3 pc and 14 pc respectively, were found to be infected. HIV-1 infection was found to be associated with age, marital status and location. Younger women, non-married women and women living in the Honde Valley were all more likely to be infected. There was also a weak association with level of education, with women with secondary education being at greater risk of being infected. The unadjusted overall figures for HIV-1 prevalence from the antenatal clinics were shown to provide a poor indication of the relative levels of prevalence of infection in the two study areas because of differences in the age structure and religious affiliations of the antenatal clinic and study populations. Similar problems may exist in sentinel surveillance data and would distort comparisons between locations and over time, especially during periods of rapid fertility change. In particular, the age bias is liable to exaggerate differences between urban and rural populations in developing societies. Where comparable information is available for the general population and sample sizes permit, this problem may be overcome by collecting basic socio-demographic data on the individuals tested and then applying standardization techniques. In the Honde Valley and Rusitu Valley example, the levels of HIV-1 prevalence after adjusting for age differences are 18,4 pc and 13,2 pc respectively.
  • Journal article
    ANDERSON RM, MAY RM, GUPTA S, 1995,

    GENETIC-HETEROGENEITY IN HELMINTHS - A REPLY

    , PARASITOLOGY, Vol: 111, Pages: 537-538, ISSN: 0031-1820
  • Journal article
    DONNELLY CA, SETH J, CLAYTON RM, PHILLIPS CI, CUTHBERT J, PRESCOTT RJet al., 1995,

    SOME BLOOD-PLASMA CONSTITUENTS CORRELATE WITH HUMAN CATARACT

    , BRITISH JOURNAL OF OPHTHALMOLOGY, Vol: 79, Pages: 1036-1041, ISSN: 0007-1161
  • Journal article
    DONNELLY CA, LAIRD NM, WARE JH, 1995,

    PREDICTION AND CREATION OF SMOOTH CURVES FOR TEMPORALLY CORRELATED LONGITUDINAL DATA

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol: 90, Pages: 984-989, ISSN: 0162-1459
    • Cite
    • Citations: 17
  • Journal article
    ANDERSON RM, SWINTON J, GARNETT GP, 1995,

    POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LOW EFFICACY HIV-1 VACCINES IN POPULATIONS WITH HIGH-RATES OF INFECTION

    , PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 261, Pages: 147-151, ISSN: 0962-8452
    • Cite
    • Citations: 42
  • Journal article
    GARNETT GP, ANDERSON RM, 1995,

    STRATEGIES FOR LIMITING THE SPREAD OF HIV IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - CONCLUSIONS BASED ON STUDIES OF THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF THE VIRUS

    , JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES AND HUMAN RETROVIROLOGY, Vol: 9, Pages: 500-513, ISSN: 1077-9450
  • Journal article
    Alfandari D, Whittaker CA, DeSimone DW, Darribère Tet al., 1995,

    Integrin alpha v subunit is expressed on mesodermal cell surfaces during amphibian gastrulation.

    , Dev Biol, Vol: 170, Pages: 249-261, ISSN: 0012-1606

    Mesodermal cell migration during amphibian gastrulation is dependent on cellular interactions with fibronectin. One mechanism whereby cells bind fibronectin is through alpha v-containing integrin heterodimers. In order to investigate the role of alpha v in amphibian gastrulation, we have cloned the Pleurodeles homologue of the integrin alpha v subunit using homology PCR. The deduced amino acid sequence is 73 and 74% identical with the human and chick homologues, respectively. The 4.8-kb mRNA is expressed during oogenesis and persists throughout development. Messenger RNA and protein are widely expressed in oocytes and embryos while cell surface expression is spatially regulated. The protein first appears on the plasma membrane of fully grown oocytes. Fertilization results in the progressive loss of alpha v membrane localization. Before and during gastrulation, the integrin alpha v subunit is expressed on the surface of mesodermal cells. These data show that alpha v expression is developmentally regulated by a post-translational mechanism which correlates with the onset of mesodermal cell migration at gastrulation.
  • Journal article
    BABAD HR, NOKES DJ, GAY NJ, MILLER E, MORGANCAPNER P, ANDERSON RMet al., 1995,

    PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF MEASLES VACCINATION IN ENGLAND AND WALES - MODEL VALIDATION AND ANALYSIS OF POLICY OPTIONS (VOL 114, PG 319, 1995)

    , EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Vol: 115, Pages: 213-213, ISSN: 0950-2688

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