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  • Journal article
    Gregson S, Zaba B, Garnett GP, 1999,

    Low fertility in women with HIV and the impact of the epidemic on orphanhood and early childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

    , AIDS, Vol: 13, Pages: S249-S257, ISSN: 0269-9370
  • Journal article
    Anderson RM, 1999,

    The epidemiology of infectious diseases.

    , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences, Vol: 354, Pages: 689-690
  • Report
    Hauck K, 1999,

    The Social Security Program of the Self-employed Women's Assocation, Ahmedabad, India

    , Geneva, Switzerland, Publisher: World Health Organization
  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Woolhouse ME, Anderson RMet al., 1999,

    Estimation of the basic reproduction number of BSE: the intensity of transmission in British cattle

    , Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 266, Pages: 23-32, ISSN: 0962-8452

    The basic reproduction number, R0, of an infectious agent is a key factor determining the rate of spread and the proportion of the host population affected. We formulate a general mathematical framework to describe the transmission dynamics of long incubation period diseases with complex pathogenesis. This is used to derive expressions for R0 of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in British cattle, and back-calculation methods are used to estimate R0 throughout the time-course of the BSE epidemic. We show that the 1988 meat and bonemeal ban was effective in rapidly reducing R0 below 1, and demonstrate that this indicates that BSE will be unable to become endemic in the UK cattle population even when case clustering is taken into account. The analysis provides some insight into absolute infectiousness for bovine-to-bovine transmission, indicating maximally infectious animals may have infected up to 400 animals each. The relationship between R0 and the early stages of the BSE epidemic and the requirements for additional research are also discussed.
  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, deWolf F, Ghani AC, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Reiss P, Lange JM, Danner SA, Garnett GP, Goudsmit J, Anderson RMet al., 1999,

    Antigen-driven CD4+ T cell and HIV-1 dynamics: residual viral replication under highly active antiretroviral therapy

    , Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 96, Pages: 15167-15172, ISSN: 0027-8424

    Antigen-induced stimulation of the immune system can generate heterogeneity in CD4+ T cell division rates capable of explaining the temporal patterns seen in the decay of HIV-1 plasma RNA levels during highly active antiretroviral therapy. Posttreatment increases in peripheral CD4+ T cell counts are consistent with a mathematical model in which host cell redistribution between lymph nodes and peripheral blood is a function of viral burden. Model fits to patient data suggest that, although therapy reduces HIV replication below replacement levels, substantial residual replication continues. This residual replication has important consequences for long-term therapy and the evolution of drug resistance and represents a challenge for future treatment strategies.
  • Journal article
    Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM, 1999,

    Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: insights from age-stratified sero-prevalence surveys

    , Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 354, Pages: 757-768, ISSN: 0962-8436

    The relationship between infection with the four major serotypes of dengue virus and the occurrence of different forms of disease is complex and not fully understood. Interpreting longitudinal records of the incidence of serious disease to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and epidemiology of the virus is therefore complicated. Since age reflects duration of exposure, age-stratified, strain-specific serological surveys carried out at one point in time, or over a short time interval, can potentially provide a rich source of information on longitudinal patterns. This paper describes the development and application (to data collected in Thailand) of statistically rigorous methods designed to estimate time-varying, strain-specific forces of infection, and thus basic reproduction numbers, from cross-sectional serological data. The analyses provide support for the hypothesis that antibody-dependent enhancement of transmission influences observed epidemiological pattern. Age-stratified serological data also reveal evidence of a propensity for the annual incidence of infection to oscillate over time with a frequency of several years. The latter observation is consistent with the predictions of simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of the virus. The estimates of the basic reproduction numbers obtained are similar in magnitude for each dengue serotype, being in the range of four to six. Such values are higher than those obtained from earlier analyses, and the implications of this for dengue control are discussed.
  • Journal article
    Boily MC, Masse BR, Desai K, Alary Met al., 1999,

    Some important issues in the planning of phase III HIV vaccine efficacy trials

    , Vaccine, Vol: 17:989-1004
  • Journal article
    Raab GM, Donnelly CA, 1999,

    Information on sexual behaviour when some data are missing

    , JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, Vol: 48, Pages: 117-133, ISSN: 0035-9254
  • Journal article
    Austion DJ, Anderson RM, 1999,

    Transmission Dynamics of Epidemic Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci in England and Wales.

    , The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 179, Pages: 883-891
  • Journal article
    Anderson RM, 1998,

    2 Analytical theory of epidemics

    , Biomedical Research Reports, Vol: 1, Pages: 23-50, ISSN: 1874-5326
    • Cite
    • Citations: 10

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