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• Journal article
  Rhodes CJ, Butler AR, Anderson RM, 1998,

  Epidemiology of communicable disease in small populations

  , JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR MEDICINE-JMM, Vol: 76, Pages: 111-116, ISSN: 0946-2716
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  • Citations: 11
• Conference paper
  Halloran ME, Anderson RM, Azevedo-Neto RS, Bellini WJ, Branch O, Burke MA, Compans R, Day K, Gooding L, Gupta S, Katz J, Kew O, Keyserling H, Krause R, Lal AA, Massad E, McLean AR, Rosa P, Rota P, Wiener P, Wynn SG, Zanetta DMTet al., 1998,

  Population biology, evolution, and immunology of vaccination and vaccination programs

  , Workshop on Population Biology, Evolution, and Control of Infectious Diseases, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: 76-86, ISSN: 0002-9629
  • Cite
  • Citations: 5
• Journal article
  Vivas-Martínez S, Basáñez MG, Grillet ME, Weiss H, Botto C, García M, Villamizar NJ, Chavasse DCet al., 1998,

  Onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus of southern Venezuela: altitude and blackfly species composition as predictors of endemicity to select communities for ivermectin control programmes

  , TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 92, Pages: 613-620, ISSN: 0035-9203
  • Cite
  • Citations: 24
• Journal article
  Anderson RM, Darby SC, 1998,

  The role of statistics in human immunodeficiency virus research

  , JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY, Vol: 161, Pages: 161-166, ISSN: 0964-1998
  • Cite
  • Citations: 2
• Journal article
  Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hagenaars TJ, Anderson RMet al., 1998,

  Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain

  , Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 265, Pages: 2443-2452, ISSN: 0962-8452

  Understanding the epidemiology and aetiology of new-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans has become increasingly important given the scientific evidence linking it to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and hence the wide exposure of the population of Great Britain (GB) to potentially infectious tissue. The recent analysis undertaken to determine the risk to the population from dorsal route ganglia illustrated the danger in presenting point estimates rather than ranges of scenarios in the face of uncertainty. We present a mathematical template that relates the past pattern of the BSE epidemic in cattle to the future course of any vCJD epidemic in humans, and use extensive scenario analysis to explore the wide range of possible outcomes given the uncertainty in epidemiological determinants. We demonstrate that the average number of humans infected by one infectious bovine and the incubation period distribution are the two epidemiological factors that have the greatest impact on epidemic size and duration. Using the time-series of the BSE epidemic and the cases seen to date, we show that the minimum length of the incubation period is approximately nine years, and that at least 20% of the cases diagnosed to date were exposed prior to 1986. We also demonstrate that the current age distribution of vCJD cases can only arise if younger people were either exposed to a greater extent, more susceptible to infection, or have shorter incubation periods. Extensive scenario analyses show that given the information currently available, the very high degree of uncertainty in the future size of the epidemic will remain for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this uncertainty is unlikely to be reduced by mass screening for late-stage infection.

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• Conference paper
  Ghani AC, Garnett GP, 1998,

  Measuring sexual partner networks for transmission of sexually transmitted diseases

  , Meeting on Statistical Issues in HIV Research, Publisher: BLACKWELL PUBL LTD, Pages: 227-238, ISSN: 0964-1998
  • Author Web Link
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  • Citations: 27
• Journal article
  Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Denny GO, Anderson RMet al., 1998,

  BSE in Northern Ireland: epidemiological patterns past, present and future

  , Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 265, Pages: 545-554, ISSN: 0962-8452

  By 30 January 1998, there had been 170,259 confirmed cases of BSE in Great Britain (GB), 1766 confirmed cases in Northern Ireland (NI) (2 January 1998), and 276 confirmed cases in the Republic of Ireland (31 January 1998). Analysis of the epidemiological patterns in the NI epidemic reveals significant clustering of cases in herds and counties. The observed clustering of cases within herds results in lower per capita incidence of BSE in previously unaffected herds, providing support for the introduction of a certified herd scheme in NI. By fitting a backcalculation model to the case data, we can estimate the number of animals infected with the aetiological agent of BSE and project the number of future cases. We predict that the epidemic will decline rapidly, with approximately 99 cases (95% confidence interval 30,504) occurring in the five year period 1997-2001.

  • Abstract
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• Journal article
  Gupta S, Ferguson N, Anderson R, 1998,

  Chaos, persistence, and evolution of strain structure in antigenically diverse infectious agents

  , Science, Vol: 280, Pages: 912-915, ISSN: 0036-8075

  The effects of selection by host immune responses on transmission dynamics was analyzed in a broad class of antigenically diverse pathogens. Strong selection can cause pathogen populations to stably segregate into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires. However, over a wide range of intermediate levels of selection, strain structure is unstable, varying in a manner that is either cyclical or chaotic. These results have implications for the interpretation of longitudinal epidemiological data on strain or serotype abundance, design of surveillance strategies, and the assessment of multivalent vaccine trials.

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• Journal article
  Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hagenaars TJ, Anderson RMet al., 1998,

  Estimation of the number of people incubating variant CJD

  , Lancet, Vol: 352, Pages: 1353-1354, ISSN: 0140-6736
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• Journal article
  Zaba B, Gregson S, 1998,

  Measuring the impact of HIV on fertility in Africa

  , AIDS, Vol: 12, Pages: S41-S50, ISSN: 0269-9370
  • Cite
  • Citations: 167

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