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• Journal article
  Howard SC, Donnelly CA, 2000,

  Estimation of a time-varying force of infection and basic reproduction number with application to an outbreak of classical swine fever.

  , J Epidemiol Biostat, Vol: 5, Pages: 161-168, ISSN: 1359-5229

  BACKGROUND: A method was developed for stochastically reconstructing the pattern of infection from observed epidemic data. This allowed for estimation of a time-dependent force of infection, or transmission rate, during an epidemic. METHODS: A discrete-time mechanistic model was used to describe the spread of infection and a stochastic procedure, which utilised the latent and infectious period distributions, was used to reconstruct the dates of infection, becoming infectious and removal from the given data. The four equations describing the model were then solved to obtain least squares estimates of the transmission rate and the basic reproduction number (R0) throughout the epidemic. This process was repeated in order to assess the variability in these key epidemiological parameters. The stochastic epidemic reconstruction procedure was developed to account for changes in the distribution of the survival period over the course of the epidemic and adapted for application to epidemic data where not all infected individuals have yet been observed as cases. RESULTS: The method was applied to a set of epidemic data from an outbreak of classical swine fever in Pakistan. Constant and time-varying estimates of the transmission rate were derived and compared. There was some evidence to suggest that the force of infection varied over time. DISCUSSION: The method described can be applied to data from epidemics where observations are incomplete. The confidence limits obtained for the estimated force of infection provide a means of assessing the evidence for time variation in this parameter.

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• Journal article
  Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Anderson RMet al., 2000,

  Assessment of the prevalence of vCJD through testing tonsils and appendices for abnormal prion protein

  , Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 267, Pages: 23-29, ISSN: 0962-8452

  The objective of this study was to determine the age group or groups which will provide the most information on the potential size of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain via the sampling of tonsil and appendix material to detect the presence of abnormal prion protein (PrP(Sc)). A subsidiary aim was to determine the degree to which such an anonymous age-stratified testing programme will reduce current uncertainties in the size of the epidemic in future years. A cohort- and time-stratified model was used to generate epidemic scenarios consistent with the observed vCJD case incidence. These scenarios, together with data on the age distribution of tonsillectomies and appendectomies, were used to evaluate the optimal age group and calendar time for undertaking testing and to calculate the range of epidemic sizes consistent with different outcomes. The analyses suggested that the optimal five-year age group to test is 25-29 years, although a random sample of appendix tissue from all age groups is nearly as informative. A random sample of tonsil tissue from all age groups is less informative, but the information content is improved if sampling is restricted to tissues removed from those over ten years of age. Based on the assumption that the test is able to detect infection in the last 75% of the incubation period, zero detected infections in an initial random sample of 1000 tissues would suggest that the epidemic will be less than 870,000 cases. If infections are detected, then the model prediction suggests that both relatively small epidemics (800+ cases if one is detected or 8300+ if two are detected) and larger epidemics (21,000+ cases if three or more are detected) are possible. It was concluded that testing will be most informative if undertaken using appendix tissues or tonsil tissues removed from those over ten years of age. Large epidemics can only be excluded if a small number of infections are detected and the test is able to detect infection early in the incubat

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• Journal article
  Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RMet al., 2000,

  Predicted vCJD mortality in Great Britain

  , Nature, Vol: 406, Pages: 583-584, ISSN: 0028-0836
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• Journal article
  Brooker S, Donnelly CA, Guyatt HL, 2000,

  Estimating the number of helminthic infections in the Republic of Cameroon from data on infection prevalence in schoolchildren

  , BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, Vol: 78, Pages: 1456-1465, ISSN: 0042-9686
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  • Citations: 33
• Journal article
  Gupta S, Anderson RM, 1999,

  Population structure of pathogens: The role of immune selection

  , PARASITOLOGY TODAY, Vol: 15, Pages: 497-501, ISSN: 0169-4758
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  • Citations: 80
• Journal article
  Tuyttens FAM, Macdonald DW, Delahay R, Rogers LM, Mallinson RJ, Donnelly CA, Newman Cet al., 1999,

  Differences in trappability of European badgers <i>Meles meles</i> in three populations in England

  , JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Vol: 36, Pages: 1051-1062, ISSN: 0021-8901
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  • Citations: 84
• Journal article
  James CS, Eaton JW, Hardwick K, 1999,

  Competition between three submerged macrophytes, <i>Elodea canadensis</i> Michx, <i>Elodea nuttallii</i> (Planch.) St John and <i>Lagarosiphon major</i> (Ridl.) moss

  , HYDROBIOLOGIA, Vol: 415, Pages: 35-40, ISSN: 0018-8158
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• Journal article
  Brisson M, Boily MC, Mâsse BR, Adrien A, Léaune Vet al., 1999,

  Highlights of the sexual activity of the heterosexual population in the province of Quebec

  , SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS, Vol: 75, Pages: 296-299, ISSN: 1368-4973
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  • Citations: 14
• Conference paper
  Donnelly CA, MaWhinney S, Anderson RM, 1999,

  A review of the BSE epidemic in British cattle

  , 89th Annual Meeting of the American-Phytopathological-Society, Publisher: BLACKWELL PUBLISHING INC, Pages: 164-173, ISSN: 1076-2825
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  • Citations: 7
• Journal article
  Desai KN, Boily MC, Masse BR, Alary M, Anderson RMet al., 1999,

  Simulation studies of phase III clinical trials to test the efficacy of a candidate HIV-1 vaccine

  , EPIDEMIOLOGY & INFECTION, Vol: 123, Pages: 65-88, ISSN: 0950-2688
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  • Citations: 14

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