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Journal articleBoily MC, Mâsse BR, Desai K, et al., 1999,
Some important issues in the planning of phase III HIV vaccine efficacy trials
, VACCINE, Vol: 17, Pages: 989-1004, ISSN: 0264-410X- Cite
- Citations: 22
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Journal articleKilian AHD, Gregson S, Ndyanabangi B, et al., 1999,
Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda
, AIDS, Vol: 13, Pages: 391-398, ISSN: 0269-9370- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 178
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Journal articleAustin DJ, Kristinsson KG, Anderson RM, 1999,
The relationship between the volume of antimicrobial consumption in human communities and the frequency of resistance
, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 96, Pages: 1152-1156, ISSN: 0027-8424- Cite
- Citations: 556
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Journal articleAnderson RM, 1999,
The pandemic of antibiotic resistance
, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 5, Pages: 147-149, ISSN: 1078-8956- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 76
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Journal articleGrassly NC, Harvey PH, Holmes EC, 1999,
Population dynamics of HIV-1 inferred from gene sequences
, GENETICS, Vol: 151, Pages: 427-438, ISSN: 0016-6731- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 48
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Journal articleGupta S, Snow RW, Donnelly C, et al., 1999,
Acquired immunity and postnatal clinical protection in childhood cerebral malaria
, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 266, Pages: 33-38, ISSN: 0962-8452- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 38
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Journal articleBotto C, Gillespie AJ, Vivas-Martínez S, et al., 1999,
Onchocerciasis hyperendemic in the Unturan Mountains: the value of recombinant antigens in describing a new transmission area in southern Venezuela
, TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 93, Pages: 25-30, ISSN: 0035-9203- Cite
- Citations: 12
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Journal articleDonnelly CA, Santos R, Ramos M, et al., 1999,
BSE in Portugal: anticipating the decline of an epidemic.
, J Epidemiol Biostat, Vol: 4, Pages: 277-283, ISSN: 1359-5229BACKGROUND: Attention throughout Europe continues to focus on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), with increasing evidence linking it to the new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans. In particular, recent attention has been directed at Portugal, where the incidence of confirmed BSE cases continues to rise. METHODS: We modelled the age-specific incidence of BSE in Portuguese-born cattle by birth cohort as a function of: the survival distribution; the cohort-specific incidence of BSE infection; the age-specific probability, conditional on survival, that an infected animal will experience clinical onset; and the under-reporting rate of BSE cases prior to 1998. RESULTS: We obtained good fits to the age-specific incidence of BSE by birth cohort in Portugal. Under a range of assumptions, the estimated incidence of BSE infection was relatively low initially, except possibly in the 1989 cohort, and then rose gradually between the 1992 and 1994 cohorts. The estimated decrease in infection incidence between the 1994 and 1995 cohorts probably reflects the effectiveness of the ban on the use of mammalian meat and bone-meal introduced in Portugal in mid-1994. Assuming no infections in animals born after June 1995, the models predict that the incidence of BSE cases in Portugal will peak in 1999 with BSE case-incidence declining thereafter. DISCUSSION: Our results illustrate the power of epidemiological analysis to detect decreasing trends in infection incidence prior to the resulting decrease in case incidence. The findings should inform the deliberations of the European Commission, which recently reported concerns about the sharp increase in case incidence from 1997 to 1998.
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Journal articleDonnnelly CA, MaWhinney S, Anderson RM, 1999,
A Review of the BSE Epidemic in British Cattle.
, Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management, Vol: 5, Pages: 164-173 -
Journal articleFerguson N, Anderson R, Gupta S, 1999,
The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics and persistence of multiple-strain pathogens
, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 96, Pages: 790-794, ISSN: 0027-8424Cross-reactive antibodies produced by a mammalian host during infection by a particular microparasitic strain usually have the effect of reducing the probability of the host being infected by a different, but closely related, pathogen strain. Such cross-reactive immunological responses thereby induce between-strain competition within the pathogen population. However, in some cases such as dengue virus, evidence suggests that cross-reactive antibodies act to enhance rather than restrict the severity of a subsequent infection by another strain. This cooperative mechanism is thought to explain why pre-existing immunity to dengue virus is an important risk factor for the development of severe disease (i.e., dengue shock syndrome and dengue hemorrhagic fever). In this paper, we explore the effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics of multistrain pathogen populations. We show that enhancement frequently may generate complex and persistent cyclical or chaotic epidemic behavior. Furthermore, enhancement acts to permit the coexistence of all strains where in its absence only one or a subset would persist.
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