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  • Journal article
    Vasconcelos A, King JD, Nunes-Alves C, Anderson R, Argaw D, Basáñez M-G, Bilal S, Blok DJ, Blumberg S, Borlase A, Brady OJ, Browning R, Chitnis N, Coffeng LE, Crowley EH, Cucunubá ZM, Cummings DAT, Davis CN, Davis EL, Dixon M, Dobson A, Dyson L, French M, Fronterre C, Giorgi E, Huang C-I, Jain S, James A, Kim SH, Kura K, Lucianez A, Marks M, Mbabazi PS, Medley GF, Michael E, Montresor A, Mutono N, Mwangi TS, Rock KS, Saboyá-Díaz M-I, Sasanami M, Schwehm M, Spencer SEF, Srivathsan A, Stawski RS, Stolk WA, Sutherland SA, Tchuenté L-AT, de Vlas SJ, Walker M, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD, Solomon AW, Fall ISet al., 2024,

    Accelerating progress towards the 2030 neglected tropical diseases targets: how can quantitative modeling support programmatic decisions?

    , Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 78, Pages: S83-S92, ISSN: 1058-4838

    Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.
  • Journal article
    Turner H, Kura K, Roth B, Kuesel AC, Kinrade S, Basanez MGet al., 2024,

    An updated economic assessment of moxidectin treatment strategies for onchocerciasis elimination

    , Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 78, Pages: S138-S145, ISSN: 1058-4838

    Background:Concerns that annual mass administration of ivermectin, the predominant strategy for onchocerciasis control/elimination, may not lead to elimination of parasite transmission (EoT) in all endemic areas, has increased interest in alternative treatment strategies. One such strategy is moxidectin. We performed an updated economic assessment of moxidectin- relative to ivermectin-based strategies.Methods:We investigated annual and biannual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (aCDTI, bCDTI) and moxidectin (aCDTM, bCDTM) implemented with minimal or enhanced coverage (65% or 80% of the total population taking the drug, respectively) in intervention-naïve areas with 30%, 50% or 70% microfilarial baseline prevalence (representative of hypo-, meso- and hyperendemic areas). We compared programmatic delivery costs for the number of treatments achieving 90% probability of EoT (EoT90), calculated with the individual-based stochastic transmission model EPIONCHO-IBM. We used the costs for 40 years of programme delivery when EoT90 was not reached earlier. Delivery costs do not include the drug costs. Results:aCDTM and bCDTM achieved EoT90 with lower programmatic delivery costs than aCDTI with one exception: aCDTM with minimal coverage did not achieve EoT90 in hyperendemic areas within 40 years. With minimal coverage, bCDTI delivery costs as much or more than aCDTM and bCDTM. With enhanced coverage, programmatic delivery costs for aCDTM and bCDTM were lower than for aCDTI and bCDTI. Conclusions:Moxidectin-based strategies could accelerate progress towards EoT and reduce programmatic delivery costs compared to ivermectin-based strategies. The costs of moxidectin to national programmes are needed to quantify whether delivery cost reductions will translate into overall programme cost reduction.
  • Journal article
    Kura K, Stolk WA, Basáñez M-G, Collyer BS, de Vlas SJ, Diggle PJ, Gass K, Graham M, Hollingsworth TD, King JD, Krentel A, Anderson RM, Coffeng LEet al., 2024,

    How does the proportion of never treatment influence the success of mass drug administration programs for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis?

    , Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 78, Pages: S93-S100, ISSN: 1058-4838

    BackgroundMass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.MethodsUsing 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.ResultsFor Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.ConclusionsThe proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.
  • Journal article
    Sittimart M, Rattanavipapong W, Mirelman AJ, Hung TM, Dabak S, Downey LE, Jit M, Teerawattananon Y, Turner Het al., 2024,

    An overview of the perspectives used in health economic evaluations

    , Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1478-7547

    The term ‘perspective’ in the context of economic evaluations and costing studies in healthcare refers to the viewpoint that an analyst has adopted to define the types of costs and outcomes to consider in their studies. However, there are currently notable variations in terms of methodological recommendations, definitions, and applications of different perspectives, depending on the objective or intended user of the study. This can make it a complex area for stakeholders when interpreting these studies. Consequently, there is a need for a comprehensive overview regarding the different types of perspectives employed in such analyses, along with the corresponding implications of their use. This is particularly important, in the context of low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), where practical guidelines may be less well-established and infrastructure for conducting economic evaluations may be more limited. This article addresses this gap by summarising the main types of perspectives commonly found in the literature to a broad audience (namely the patient, payer, health care providers, healthcare sector, health system, and societal perspectives), providing their most established definitions and outlining the corresponding implications of their uses in health economic studies, with examples particularly from LMIC settings. We then discuss important considerations when selecting the perspective and present key arguments to consider when deciding whether the societal perspective should be used. We conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to what perspective should be used and the perspective chosen will be influenced by the context, policymakers'/stakeholders’ viewpoints, resource/data availability, and intended use of the analysis. Moving forward, considering the ongoing issues regarding the variation in terminology and practice in this area, we urge that more standardised definitions of the different perspectives and the boundaries between
  • Journal article
    Klepac P, Hsieh JL, Ducker CL, Assoum M, Booth M, Byrne I, Dodson S, Martin DL, Turner CMR, van Daalen KR, Abela B, Akamboe J, Alves F, Brooker SJ, Ciceri-Reynolds K, Cole J, Desjardins A, Drakeley C, Ediriweera DS, Ferguson NM, Gabrielli AF, Gahir J, Jain S, John MR, Juma E, Kanayson P, Deribe K, King JD, Kipingu AM, Kiware S, Kolaczinski J, Kulei WJ, Laizer TL, Lal V, Lowe R, Maige JS, Mayer S, McIver L, Mosser JF, Nicholls RS, Nunes-Alves C, Panjwani J, Parameswaran N, Polson K, Radoykova H-S, Ramani A, Reimer LJ, Reynolds ZM, Ribeiro I, Robb A, Sanikullah KH, Smith DRM, Shirima GG, Shott JP, Tidman R, Tribe L, Turner J, Nery SV, Velayudhan R, Warusavithana S, Wheeler HS, Yajima A, Abdilleh AR, Hounkpatin B, Wangmo D, Whitty CJM, Campbell-Lendrum D, Hollingsworth TD, Solomon AW, Fall ISet al., 2024,

    Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

    , TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, ISSN: 0035-9203
  • Journal article
    Vieira A, Wan Y, Ryan Y, Li HK, Guy RL, Papangeli M, Huse K, Reeves LC, Soo VWC, Daniel R, Harley A, Broughton K, Dhami C, Ganner M, Mumin Z, Razaei M, Rundberg E, Mammadov R, Mills EA, Sgro V, Mok KY, Didelot X, Croucher NJ, Jauneikaite E, Lamagni T, Brown CS, Coelho J, Sriskandan Set al., 2024,

    Rapid expansion and international spread of M1UK in the post-pandemic UK upsurge of Streptococcus pyogenes

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

    The UK observed a marked increase in scarlet fever and invasive group A streptococcal infection in 2022 with severe outcomes in children and similar trends worldwide. Here we report lineage M1UK to be the dominant source of invasive infections in this upsurge. Compared with ancestral M1global strains, invasive M1UK strains exhibit reduced genomic diversity and fewer mutations in two-component regulator genes covRS. The emergence of M1UK is dated to 2008. Following a bottleneck coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, three emergent M1UK clades underwent rapid nationwide expansion, despite lack of detection in previous years. All M1UK isolates thus-far sequenced globally have a phylogenetic origin in the UK, with dispersal of the new clades in Europe. While waning immunity may promote streptococcal epidemics, the genetic features of M1UK point to a fitness advantage in pathogenicity, and a striking ability to persist through population bottlenecks.
  • Journal article
    Subissi L, Otieno JR, Worp N, Attar Cohen H, Oude Munnink BB, Abu-Raddad LJ, Alm E, Barakat A, Barclay WS, Bhiman JN, Caly L, Chand M, Chen M, Cullinane A, de Oliveira T, Drosten C, Druce J, Effler P, El Masry I, Faye A, Ghedin E, Grant R, Haagmans BL, Happi C, Herring BL, Hodcroft EB, Ikejezie J, Katawera V, Kassamali ZA, Leo Y-S, Leung GM, Kondor RJ, Marklewitz M, Mendez-Rico J, Melhem NM, Munster V, Nahapetyan K, Naindoo D, Oh D-Y, Peacock TP, Peiris M, Peng Z, Poon LLM, Rambaut A, Saha S, Shen Y, Siqueira MM, Volz E, Tessema SK, Thiel V, Triki H, van der Werf S, von Eije K, Cunningham J, Koopmans MPG, von Gottberg A, Agrawal A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2024,

    An updated framework for SARS-CoV-2 variants reflects the unpredictability of viral evolution

    , NATURE MEDICINE, ISSN: 1078-8956
  • Journal article
    Wardle J, Bhatia S, Cori A, Nouvellet Pet al., 2024,

    Temporal variations in international air travel: implications for modelling the spread of infectious diseases

    , JOURNAL OF TRAVEL MEDICINE, Vol: 31, ISSN: 1195-1982
  • Journal article
    Mutono N, Basáñez M-G, James A, Stolk WA, Makori A, Kimani TN, Hollingsworth TD, Vasconcelos A, Dixon MA, de Vlas SJ, Thumbi SMet al., 2024,

    Elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) with long-term ivermectin mass drug administration with or without vector control in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    , The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 12, Pages: e771-e782, ISSN: 2214-109X

    BACKGROUND: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, African Index Medicus, and Google Scholar databases for all articles published from database inception to Aug 19, 2023, without language restrictions. The search terms used were "onchocerciasis" AND "ivermectin" AND "mass drug administration". The three inclusion criteria were (1) focus or foci located in Africa, (2) reporting of elimination of transmission or at least 10 years of ivermectin mass drug administration in the focus or foci, and (3) inclusion of at least one of the following assessments: microfilarial prevalence, nodule prevalence, Ov16 antibody seroprevalence, and blackfly infectivity prevalence. Epidemiological modelling studies and reviews were excluded. Four reviewers (NM, AJ, AM, and TNK) extracted data in duplicate from the full-text articles using a data extraction tool developed in Excel with columns recording the data of interest to be extracted, and a column where important comments for each study could be highlighted. We did not request any individual-level data from authors. Foci were classified as achieving elimination of transmission, being close to elimination of transmission, or with ongoing transmission. We used mixed-effects meta-regression models to identify factors assoc
  • Journal article
    Maddren R, Collyer B, Phillips AE, Rayment Gomez S, Abtew B, Anjulo U, Tadele D, Sharma A, Tamiru A, Firdawek E, Chernet M, Anderson RMet al., 2024,

    Patterns of individual compliance with anthelmintic treatment for soil-transmitted helminth infections in southern Ethiopia over six rounds of community-wide mass drug administration

    , TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 118, Pages: 304-312, ISSN: 0035-9203

This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.

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