In this section
@article{Ferguson:1999:10.1098/rstb.1999.0428,
author = {Ferguson, NM and Donnelly, CA and Anderson, RM},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.1999.0428},
journal = {Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci},
pages = {757--768},
title = {Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: insights from age-stratified sero-prevalence surveys},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1999.0428},
volume = {354},
year = {1999}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The relationship between infection with the four major serotypes of dengue virus and the occurrence of different forms of disease is complex and not fully understood. Interpreting longitudinal records of the incidence of serious disease to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and epidemiology of the virus is therefore complicated. Since age reflects duration of exposure, age-stratified, strain-specific serological surveys carried out at one point in time, or over a short time interval, can potentially provide a rich source of information on longitudinal patterns. This paper describes the development and application (to data collected in Thailand) of statistically rigorous methods designed to estimate time-varying, strain-specific forces of infection, and thus basic reproduction numbers, from cross-sectional serological data. The analyses provide support for the hypothesis that antibody-dependent enhancement of transmission influences observed epidemiological pattern. Age-stratified serological data also reveal evidence of a propensity for the annual incidence of infection to oscillate over time with a frequency of several years. The latter observation is consistent with the predictions of simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of the virus. The estimates of the basic reproduction numbers obtained are similar in magnitude for each dengue serotype, being in the range of four to six. Such values are higher than those obtained from earlier analyses, and the implications of this for dengue control are discussed.
AU - Ferguson,NM
AU - Donnelly,CA
AU - Anderson,RM
DO - 10.1098/rstb.1999.0428
EP - 768
PY - 1999///
SN - 0962-8436
SP - 757
TI - Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: insights from age-stratified sero-prevalence surveys
T2 - Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1999.0428
UR - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10365401
VL - 354
ER -
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