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Journal articleSesini M, Giarola S, Hawkes AD, 2020,
As the energy system progresses towards full decarbonization, natural gas could play an important role in it with its relatively low carbon characteristics and its abundant supply. At the core of the paper is a modelling analysis of the European Union (EU) natural gas network resilience in case of short-term supply disruption or unexpected increase in demand. The adopted linear programming model solves for the most cost effective transmission of gas flows, capacity and storage utilization in an interconnected EU gas system. Results presented in the paper show a significant increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) costs (+40%) when commodity price increases (+40%) and LNG prices decreases (−20%), and an equally significant decline in transport and LNG costs (−30%,-50%) when storage volumes varies (−35%,+35%).The analysis highlights a complementary role between LNG and storage in ensuring a cost-effective response to a natural gas supply shock. It also indicates that LNG alone is inadequate in providing system resilience in case of an emergency in supply, stressing the importance of storage in the gas market and its intrinsic value in the system. The study emphasizes the need to further investigate the reliability and value of gas storage to reinforce energy security in Europe.
Journal articleBudinis S, Sachs J, Giarola S, et al., 2020,
China is the leading ammonia producer and relies on a coal-based technology which makes the already energy intensive Haber-Bosch process, one of the most emission intensive in the world. This work is the first to propose an agent-based modelling framework to model the Chinese ammonia industry as it characterises the specific goals and barriers towards fuel switching and carbon capture and storage adoption for small, medium, and large enterprises either private or state-owned. The results show that facilitated access to capital makes investments in sustainable technologies more attractive for all firms, especially for small and medium enterprises. Without policy instruments such as carbon price, the decrease in emissions in the long-term is due to investments in natural gas-based technologies, as they typically have lower capital and operating costs, and also lower electricity consumption than coal-based production. Conversely, with policy instruments in place, a strong decrease in emissions occurs between 2060 and 2080 due to investors choosing natural gas and biomethane-based technologies, with carbon capture and storage. In the long term, natural gas and biomethane could compete, with the outcome depending on infrastructure, supply chain availability and land use constraints.
Journal articleMoya D, Budinis S, Giarola S, et al., 2020,
Agent-based scenarios comparison for assessing fuel-switching investment in long-term energy transitions of the India’s industry sector, Applied Energy, Vol: 274, Pages: 1-26, ISSN: 0306-2619
This paper presents the formulation and application of a novel agent-based integrated assessment approach to model the attributes, objectives and decision-making process of investors in a long-term energy transition in India’s iron and steel sector. It takes empirical data from an on-site survey of 108 operating plants in Maharashtra to formulate objectives and decision-making metrics for the agent-based model and simulates possible future portfolio mixes. The studied decision drivers were capital costs, operating costs (including fuel consumption), a combination of capital and operating costs, and net present value. Where investors used a weighted combination of capital cost and operating costs, a natural gas uptake of ~12PJ was obtained and the highest cumulative emissions reduction was obtained, 2 Mt CO2 in the period from 2020 to 2050. Conversely if net present value alone is used, cumulative emissions reduction in the same period was lower, 1.6 Mt CO2, and the cumulative uptake of natural gas was equal to 15PJ. Results show how the differing upfront investment cost of the technology options could cause prevalence of high-carbon fuels, particularly heavy fuel oil, in the final mix. Results also represent the unique heterogeneity of fuel-switching industrial investors with distinct investment goals and limited foresight on costs. The perception of high capital expenditures for decarbonisation represents a significant barrier to the energy transition in industry and should be addressed via effective policy making (e.g. carbon policy/price).
Journal articleHuntington HG, Bhargava A, Daniels D, et al., 2020,
Within Canada, Mexico or the United States, policy-making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries’ energy systems are integrated with each other. These analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 study on North American energy integration and trade. This paper compares North American results from 17 models and discusses their policy motivation. Oil and natural gas production in the three major countries are modestly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas price changes, although these elasticities are below unity. Carbon taxes displace coal and some natural gas with renewables within all three power markets. Lower natural gas prices replace coal and some renewables with natural gas within electric generation. Higher intermittent renewable penetration in the power sector displaces coal and some natural gas. A key conclusion is that much remains to be done in integrating future analyses and in sharing and improving the quality and consistency of the underlying data.
ReportSpeirs J, Jalil-Vega F, Cooper J, et al., 2020,
The flexibility of gas - what is it worth?, White Paper 5: The Flexibility of gas – what is it worth?, London, UK, Publisher: Sustainable Gas Institute, Imperial College London, 5
What is the evidence on the flexibility value that gas vectors and gas networks can provide to support the future energy system?There is an increasing debate regarding the use of gas networks in providing support for the decarbonisation of energy systems.The perceived value of gas “vectors” – encompassing natural gas, hydrogen and biomethane – is that they may provide flexibility, helping to support daily and seasonal variation in energy demand, and increasingly intermittent electricity supply as renewable electricity generation increases as a proportion of the electricity mix.Arguments in support of gas suggest that electricity systems will find it difficult to maintain flexibility on their own, whilst also reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing production to meet new demand for heating and transport. Gas, on the other hand, is expected to provide flexibility at relatively low cost, and may be produced and used with relatively low greenhouse gas emissions.White Paper 5 investigates the evidence surrounding the flexibility provided by gas and gas networks and the cost of, and value provided by gas to the future energy system.
Journal articleGarcia Kerdan I, Giarola S, Hawkes A, 2020,
Implications of future natural gas demand on sugarcane production, land use Change and related emissions in Brazil, Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, Vol: 8, Pages: 304-327, ISSN: 1848-9257
Due to its low share of energy-related emissions, energy systems models have overlooked the implications of technological transition in the agricultural sector and its interaction in the wider energy system. This paper explores the role of agriculture intensification by using a novel agricultural-based energy systems model. The aim is to explore the future role of Brazil’s agriculture and its dynamics with other energy sectors under two carbon constraint scenarios. The main focus has been to study resource competition between sugarcane and natural gas at a country level. Results show that in order to meet the future food and bioenergy demand, the agricultural sector would start intensifying by 2030, improving productivity at the expense of higher energy demand, however, land-related emissions would be minimised due to freed-up pasture land and reduction in deforestation rates. Additionally, the development of balanced bioenergy and natural gas markets may help limit the sugarcane expansion rates, preserving up to 12.6 million hectares of forest land, with significant emissions benefits.
Journal articleLyrio de Oliveira L, García Kerdan I, de Oliveira Ribeiro C, et al., 2020,
Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 123, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1364-0321
In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2 °C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9–10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes cost-effective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions.
Journal articleLuh S, Budinis S, Giarola S, et al., 2020,
Long-term development of the industrial sector – case study about electrification, fuel switching, and CCS in the USA, Computers & Chemical Engineering, Vol: 133, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 0098-1354
In the urgent quest for solutions to mitigate climate change, the industry is one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to model the investment decisions in industry, the Industrial Sector Module (ISM) of the ModUlar energy system Simulation Environment (MUSE). This work uses the ISM to quantify effects of three combined measures for CO2 emission reduction in industry, i.e. fuel switching, electrification, and adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and to simulate plausible scenarios (base scenario and climate ambitious scenario) for curbing emissions in the iron and steel sector in the USA between 2010 and 2050. Results show that when the climate ambitious scenario is applied, the cumulative emissions into the atmosphere (2,158 Mt CO2) are reduced by 40% in comparison to the base scenario (3,608 Mt CO2). This decarbonization gap between both scenarios intensifies over time; in the year 2050, the CO2 intensity in the climate ambitious scenario is 81% lower in comparison to the base scenario. The study shows that major contributions to industry decarbonization can come from the further uptake of secondary steel production. Results show also that a carbon tax drives the decarbonization process but is not sufficient on its own. In addition, the uptake of innovative low-carbon breakthrough technologies is necessary. It is concluded that industrial electrification is counterproductive for climate change mitigation, if electricity is not provided by low-carbon sources. Overall, fuel switching, industrial electrification, and CCS adoption as single measures have a limited decarbonization impact, compared to an integrated approach that implements all the measures together providing a much more attractive solution for CO2 mitigation.
Book chapterPanteli A, Giarola S, Shah N, 2020,
Journal articleGarcía Kerdan I, Jalil-Vega F, Toole J, et al., 2019,
Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulation-based integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct cost-optimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.
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