Imperial College London

DrAlaaAl Khourdajie

Faculty of Natural SciencesCentre for Environmental Policy

Research Fellow - IPCC Working Group III Senior Scientist
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6838a.alkhourdajie Website

 
 
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Location

 

405Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

7 results found

Skea J, Shukla P, Al Khourdajie A, McCollum Det al., 2021, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: transparency and integrated assessment modeling, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change, ISSN: 1757-7780

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) connect trends in future socioeconomic and technological development with impacts on the environment, such as global climate change. They occupy a critical position at the global science-policy interface. IAMs and associated scenarios have come under intense scrutiny, with critiques addressing both methodological and substantive issues, such as land use, carbon dioxide removal and technology performance. Criticisms have also addressed the transparency of IAM methods and assumptions as well as the transparency of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of IAMs. This paper, authored by the co-chairs of IPCC Working Group III and members of the Technical Support Unit, documents activities aiming to enhance the transparency of IAMs and their assessment. It includes a history of IPCC's approach to scenarios covering the formation of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2007 and the emergence of the approach by which IPCC facilitates the development of scenarios, but does not produce them itself. An IPCC Expert Meeting at the start of the current assessment cycle made transparency recommendations targeted at both the research community and IPCC. The community has taken steps to “open the black box” by moving toward open-source and web-publishing IAM documentation. IPCC has included an Annex to its next report focusing on scenarios and modeling methodologies. An open call for scenario data linked to the current IPCC report includes an expanded set of input and output variables. This paper ends with suggested criteria for measuring the success of these efforts to improve transparency.

Journal article

Lamb WF, Wiedmann T, Pongratz J, Andrew R, Crippa M, Olivier JGJ, Wiedenhofer D, Mattioli G, Khourdajie AA, House J, Pachauri S, Figueroa M, Saheb Y, Slade R, Hubacek K, Sun L, Ribeiro SK, Khennas S, de la Rue du Can S, Chapungu L, Davis SJ, Bashmakov I, Dai H, Dhakal S, Tan X, Geng Y, Gu B, Minx Jet al., 2021, A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Skea J, van Diemen R, Portugal-Pereira J, Al Khourdajie A, Skea J, van Diemen R, Portugal-Pereira J, Al Khourdajie Aet al., 2021, Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: approaches to global energy futures compared, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol: 168, ISSN: 0040-1625

This paper compares recent global energy scenarios developed by governments, international bodies, businesses and the scientific community. We divide the scenarios into three broad classes: outlooks which extrapolate current trends and anticipate policy developments; exploratory scenarios which may consider disruptions; and normative scenarios which derive energy system pathways consistent with a long-term goal. Many organisations are starting to blend outlooks, exploratory and normative approaches. The paper covers trends in primary energy demand to 2040, snapshots of the energy mix in 2040, drivers of demand, and the evolution of scenarios projections developed in recent years. We find sharp divergences between outlooks and normative scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. All published outlooks imply that the world is not on an energy pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement. We conclude with an assessment of emerging themes including: scenario benchmarking and group think; adaptation of scenarios to real world developments; and the plausibility of different types of scenarios. We propose that more dialogue between scenario developers from the scientific community and those working in governments and commercial organisations could be beneficial. Research focusing on the organisational processes through which scenarios are developed could usefully extend this work.

Journal article

Al Khourdajie A, Finus M, 2020, Measures to enhance the effectiveness of international climate agreements: The case of border carbon adjustments, European Economic Review, Vol: 124, ISSN: 0014-2921

Actions on climate change which are not supported by all countries are not very effective. However, full participation in a global climate treaty with meaningful emission reductions is difficult to achieve. The non-excludability of the public good mitigation provides an incentive to abstain from global action. Moreover, carbon leakage renders it unattractive to join a treaty without full participation. We study whether and under which conditions border carbon adjustments (BCAs) can mitigate free-riding and reduce carbon leakage in a simple strategic trade model. We show that BCAs can lead to large stable climate agreements, including full participation, associated with large global welfare gains if treaties do not restrict membership (open membership), as this is typical for environmental agreements. We caution against restricting accession to treaties (exclusive membership), as this is typical for trade agreements, which may serve individual but not global interests.

Journal article

Finus M, Al Khourdajie A, 2017, Strategic Environmental Policy, International Trade and Self-enforcing Agreements: The Role of Consumers' Taste for Variety, STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR AND THE ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 7, Pages: 317-350, ISSN: 1944-012X

Journal article

Stockhause M, Al Khourdajie A, Alegria A, Chen R, Huard D, Juckes M, Pascoe C, Pirani A, Matthews R, Poloczanska E, Vicuna S, Xing X, Yelekçi Öet al., IPCC Sixth Assessment approaches towards FAIR data and an enhanced data reuse

Journal article

Stockhause M, Al Khourdajie A, Alegria A, Chen R, Huard D, Juckes M, Pascoe C, Pirani A, Matthews R, Poloczanska E, Vicuna S, Xing X, Yelekçi Öet al., IPCC Sixth Assessment approaches towards FAIR data and an enhanced data reuse

Journal article

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