Publications
145 results found
Veness WA, Butler AP, Ochoa-Tocachi BF, et al., 2022, Localizing Hydrological Drought Early Warning Using In Situ Groundwater Sensors, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, Vol: 58, ISSN: 0043-1397
Habib A, Butler AP, Bloomfield JP, et al., 2022, Fractal domain refinement of models simulating hydrological time series, HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, Vol: 67, Pages: 1342-1355, ISSN: 0262-6667
Hamzehloo A, Bahlali ML, Salinas P, et al., 2022, Modelling saline intrusion using dynamic mesh optimization with parallel processing, ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES, Vol: 164, ISSN: 0309-1708
Murphy CWM, Davis GB, Rayner JL, et al., 2022, The role of predicted chemotactic and hydrocarbon degrading taxa in natural source zone depletion at a legacy petroleum hydrocarbon site, Journal of Hazardous Materials, Vol: 430, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 0304-3894
Petroleum hydrocarbon contamination is a global problem which can cause long-term environmental damage and impacts water security. Natural source zone depletion (NSZD) is the natural degradation of such contaminants. Chemotaxis is an aspect of NSZD which is not fully understood, but one that grants microorganisms the ability to alter their motion in response to a chemical concentration gradient potentially enhancing petroleum NSZD mass removal rates. This study investigates the distribution of potentially chemotactic and hydrocarbon degrading microbes (CD) across the water table of a legacy petroleum hydrocarbon site near Perth, Western Australia in areas impacted by crude oil, diesel and jet fuel. Core samples were recovered and analysed for hydrocarbon contamination using gas chromatography. Predictive metagenomic profiling was undertaken to infer functionality using a combination of 16 S rRNA sequencing and PICRUSt2 analysis. Naphthalene contamination was found to significantly increase the occurrence of potential CD microbes, including members of the Comamonadaceae and Geobacteraceae families, which may enhance NSZD. Further work to explore and define this link is important for reliable estimation of biodegradation of petroleum hydrocarbon fuels. Furthermore, the outcomes suggest that the chemotactic parameter within existing NSZD models should be reviewed to accommodate CD accumulation in areas of naphthalene contamination, thereby providing a more accurate quantification of risk from petroleum impacts in subsurface environments, and the scale of risk mitigation due to NSZD.
Bussi G, Whitehead PG, Nelson R, et al., 2022, Green infrastructure and climate change impacts on the flows and water quality of urban catchments: Salmons Brook and Pymmes Brook in north-east London, Hydrology Research, Vol: 53, ISSN: 1998-9563
Poor water quality is a widespread issue in urban rivers and streams in London. Localised pollution can have impacts on local communities, from health issues to environmental degradation and restricted recreational use of water. The Salmons and Pymmes Brooks, located in the London Borough of Enfield, flow into the River Lee, and in this paper, the impacts of misconnected sewers, urban runoff and atmospheric pollution have been evaluated. The first step towards finding a sustainable and effective solution to these issues is to identify sources and paths of pollutants and to understand their cycle through catchments and rivers. The INCA water quality model has been applied to the Salmons and Pymmes urban catchments in north-east London, with the aim of providing local communities and community action groups such as Thames21 with a tool they can use to assess the water quality issue. INCA is a process-based, dynamic flow and quality model, and so it can account for daily changes in temperature, flow, water velocity and residence time that all affect reaction kinetics and hence chemical flux. As INCA is process-based, a set of mitigation strategies have been evaluated including constructed wetland across the catchment to assess pollution control. The constructed wetlands can make a significant difference reducing sediment transport and improving nutrient control for nitrogen and phosphorus. The results of this paper show that a substantial reduction in nitrate, ammonium and phosphorus concentrations can be achieved if a proper catchment-scale wetland implementation strategy is put in place. Furthermore, the paper shows how the nutrient reduction efficiency of the wetlands should not be affected by climate change.
Colyer A, Butler A, Peach D, et al., 2022, How groundwater time series and aquifer property data explain heterogeneity in the Permo-Triassic sandstone aquifers of the Eden Valley, Cumbria, UK, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol: 30, Pages: 445-462, ISSN: 0941-2816
A novel investigation of the impact of meteorological and geological heterogeneity within the Permo-Triassic Sandstoneaquifers of the River Eden catchment, Cumbria (UK), is described. Quantifying the impact of heterogeneity on the watercycle is increasingly important to sustainably manage water resources and minimise food risk. Traditional investigations onheterogeneity at the catchment scale require a considerable amount of data, and this has led to the analysis of available timeseries to interpret the impact of heterogeneity. The current research integrated groundwater-level and meteorological timeseries in conjunction with aquifer property data at 11 borehole locations to quantify the impact of heterogeneity and informthe hydrogeological conceptual understanding. The study visually categorised and used seasonal trend decomposition byLOESS (STL) on 11 groundwater and meteorological time series. Decomposition components of the diferent time serieswere compared using variance ratios. Though the Eden catchment exhibits highly heterogeneous rainfall distribution, comparative analysis at borehole locations showed that (1) meteorological drivers at borehole locations are broadly homogeneousand (2) the meteorological drivers are not sufcient to generate the variation observed in the groundwater-level time series.Three distinct hydrogeological regimes were identifed and shown to coincide with heterogeneous features in the southernBrockram facies, which is the northern silicifed region of the Penrith Sandstone and the St Bees Sandstone. The use of STLanalysis in combination with detailed aquifer property data is a low-impact insightful investigative tool that helps guide thedevelopment of hydrogeological conceptual models.
Vineis P, Butler A, 2021, Commentary: Climate change and health: the importance of experiments, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 50, Pages: 929-930, ISSN: 0300-5771
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Muftah H, Rowan TSL, Butler AP, 2021, Towards open-source LOD2 modelling using convolutional neural networks, MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 8, Pages: 1693-1709, ISSN: 2363-6203
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Dobson B, Jovanovic T, Chen Y, et al., 2021, Integrated modelling to support analysis of COVID-19 impacts on London's water system and in-river water quality, Frontiers in Water, Vol: 3, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 2624-9375
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens of the United Kingdom were required to stay at home for many months in 2020. In the weeks before and months following lockdown, including when it was not being enforced, citizens were advised to stay at home where possible. As a result, in a megacity such as London, where long-distance commuting is common, spatial and temporal changes to patterns of water demand are inevitable. This, in turn, may change where people’s waste is treated and ultimately impact the in-river quality of effluent receiving waters. To assess large scale impacts, such as COVID-19, at the city scale, an integrated modelling approach that captures everything between households and rivers is needed. A framework to achieve this is presented in this study and used to explore changes in water use and the associated impacts on wastewater treatment and in-river quality as a result of government and societal responses to COVID-19. Our modelling results revealed significant changes to household water consumption under a range of impact scenarios, however, they only showed significant impacts on pollutant concentrations in household wastewater were in central London. Pollutant concentrations in rivers simulated by the model were most sensitive in the tributaries of the River Thames, highlighting the vulnerability of smaller rivers and the important role that they play in diluting pollution. Modelled ammonia and phosphates were found to be the pollutants that rivers were most sensitive to because their main source in urban rivers is domestic wastewater that was significantly altered during the imposed mobility restrictions. A model evaluation showed that we can accurately validate individual model components (i.e., water demand generator) and 30emphasised need for continuous water quality measurements. Ultimately, the work provides a basis for further developments of water systems integration approaches to project changes under never-before seen scenarios.
Upton KA, Jackson CR, Butler AP, et al., 2020, An integrated modelling approach for assessing the effect of multiscale complexity on groundwater source yields, JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, Vol: 588, ISSN: 0022-1694
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- Citations: 4
Islam MA, Hoque MA, Ahmed KM, et al., 2019, Impact of climate change and land use on groundwater salinization in southern Bangladesh-implications for other Asian deltas, Environmental Management (New York): an international journal for decision-makers, scientists and environmental auditors, Vol: 64, Pages: 640-649, ISSN: 0364-152X
Pervasive salinity in soil and water is affecting agricultural yield and the health of millions of delta dwellers in Asia. This is also being exacerbated by climate change through increases in sea level and tropical storm surges. One consequence of this has been a widespread introduction of salt water shrimp farming. Here, we show, using field data and modeling, how changes in climate and land use are likely to result in increased salinization of shallow groundwater in SE Asian mega-deltas. We also explore possible adaptation options. We find that possible future increase of episodic inundation events, combined with salt water shrimp farming, will cause rapid salinization of groundwater in the region making it less suitable for drinking water and irrigation. However, modified land use and water management practices can mitigate the impacts on groundwater, as well as the overlying soil, from future salinization. The study therefore provides guidance for adaptation planning to reduce future salinization in Asian deltas.
Weaver KC, Hoque MA, Amin SM, et al., 2019, Validation of basaltic glass adsorption capabilities from geothermal arsenic in a basaltic aquifer: A case study from Bjarnarflag power Station, Iceland, Geoscience Frontiers, Vol: 10, Pages: 1743-1753, ISSN: 1674-9871
Arsenic is a carcinogen known for its acute toxicity to organisms. Geothermal waters are commonly high in arsenic, as shown at the Bjarnarflag Power Plant, Iceland (∼224 μg/kg of solvent). Development of geothermal energy requires adequate disposal of arsenic-rich waters into groundwater/geothermal systems. The outcome of arsenic transport models that assess the effect of geothermal effluent on the environment and ecosystems may be influenced by the sensitivity of hydraulic parameters. However, previous such studies in Iceland do not consider the sensitivity of hydraulic parameters and thereby the interpretations remain unreliable. Here we used the Lake Mývatn basaltic aquifer system as a case study to identify the sensitive hydraulic parameters and assess their role in arsenic transport. We develop a one-dimensional reactive transport model (PHREEQC ver. 2.), using geochemical data from Bjarnarflag, Iceland. In our model, arsenite (H 3 AsO 3 ) was predicted to be the dominant species of inorganic arsenic in both groundwater and geothermal water. Dilution reduced arsenic concentration below ∼5 μg/kg. Adsorption reduced the residual contamination below ∼0.4 μg/kg at 250 m along transect. Based on our modelling, we found volumetric input to be the most sensitive parameter in the model. In addition, the adsorption strength of basaltic glass was such that the physical hydrogeological parameters, namely: groundwater velocity and longitudinal dispersivity had little influence on the concentration profile.
MacAllister DJ, Graham MT, Vinogradov J, et al., 2019, Characterising the self-potential response to concentration gradients in heterogeneous sub-surface environments, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, Vol: 124, Pages: 7918-7933, ISSN: 2169-9356
Self‐potential (SP) measurements can be used to characterise and monitor, in real‐time, fluid movement and behaviour in the sub‐surface. The electrochemical exclusion‐diffusion (EED) potential, one component of SP, arises when concentration gradients exist in porous media. Such concentration gradients are of concern in coastal and contaminated aquifers, and oil and gas reservoirs. It is essential that estimates of EED potential are made prior to conducting SP investigations in complex environments with heterogeneous geology and salinity contrasts, such as the UK Chalk coastal aquifer. Here, we report repeatable laboratory estimates of the EED potential of chalk and marls using natural groundwater (GW), seawater (SW), deionised (DI) water and 5 M NaCl. In all cases the EED potential of chalk was positive (using a GW/SW concentration gradient the EED potential was c.14 to 22 mV), with an increased deviation from the diffusion limit at the higher salinity contrast. Despite the relatively small pore size of chalk (c.1 μm), it is dominated by the diffusion potential and has a low exclusion‐efficiency, even at large salinity contrasts. Marl samples have a higher exclusion‐efficiency which is of sufficient magnitude to reverse the polarity of the EED potential (using a GW/SW concentration gradient the EED potential was c.‐7 to ‐12 mV) with respect to the chalk samples. Despite the complexity of the natural samples used, the method produced repeatable results. We also show that first order estimates of the exclusion‐efficiency can be made using SP logs, supporting the parameterisation of the model reported in Graham et al. (2018), and that derived values for marls are consistent with the laboratory experiments, while values derived for hardgrounds based on field data indicate a similarly high exclusion‐efficiency. While this method shows promise in the absence of laboratory measurements, more rigorous estimates should be made where possible and can be conducted following
Upton KA, Butler AP, Jackson CR, et al., 2019, Modelling boreholes in complex heterogeneous aquifers, Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol: 118, Pages: 48-60, ISSN: 1364-8152
Reliable estimates of the sustainable yield of supply boreholes are critical to ensure that groundwater resources are managed sustainably. Sustainable yields are dependent on the pumped groundwater level in a borehole, how this relates to vertical aquifer heterogeneity, and features of the borehole itself. This paper presents a 3D radial flow model (SPIDERR), based on the Darcy-Forchheimer equation, for simulating the groundwater level response in supply boreholes in unconfined, heterogeneous aquifers. The model provides a tool for investigating the causes of non-linear behaviour in abstraction boreholes, which can have a significant impact on sustainable yields. This is demonstrated by simulating a variable-rate pumping test in a Chalk abstraction borehole. The application suggests the non-linear response to pumping is due to a combination of factors: a reduction in well storage with depth due to changes in the borehole diameter, a reduction in hydraulic conductivity with depth, and non-Darcian flow.
Malcolm G, Jackson M, MacAllister DJ, et al., 2018, Self-potential as a predictor of seawater intrusion in coastal groundwater boreholes, Water Resources Research, Vol: 54, Pages: 6055-6071, ISSN: 0043-1397
Monitoring of self‐potentials (SP) in the Chalk of England has shown that a consistent electrical potential gradient exists within a coastal groundwater borehole previously affected by seawater intrusion (SI) and that this gradient is absent in boreholes further inland. Furthermore, a small but characteristic reduction in this gradient was observed several days prior to SI occurring. We present results from a combined hydrodynamic and electrodynamic model, which matches the observed phenomena for the first time and sheds light on the source mechanisms for the spatial and temporal distribution of SP. The model predictions are highly sensitive to the relative contribution of electrochemical exclusion and diffusion potentials, the ‘exclusion efficiency’, in different rock strata. Geoelectric heterogeneity, largely due to marls and hardgrounds with a relatively high exclusion efficiency, was the key factor in controlling the magnitude of the modelled SP gradient ahead of the saline front and its evolution prior to breakthrough. The model results suggest that, where sufficient geoelectric heterogeneity exists, borehole SP may be used as an early warning mechanism for SI.
Todman LC, Chhang A, Riordan HJ, et al., 2018, Soil osmotic potential and its effect on vapor flow from a pervaporative irrigation membrane, Journal of Environmental Engineering, Vol: 144, ISSN: 0733-9372
Pervaporative irrigation is a membrane technology that can be used for desalination and subsurface irrigation simultaneously. To irrigate, the tube-shaped polymer membrane is buried in soil and filled with water. Because of the membrane transport process, water enters the soil in the vapor phase, drawn across the membrane when the relative humidity in the air-filled pores is low. Soils are typically humid environments; however, the presence of hygroscopic compounds such as fertilizers decreases the humidity. For example, at 20°C the humidity in air in equilibrium above a saturated ammonium nitrate solution is 63%. Here, experiments showed that the presence of fertilizers in sand increased the water flux across the membrane by an order of magnitude. An expression for vapor sorption into sand containing different hygroscopic compounds was developed and combined with a model of vapor and liquid flow in soil. The success of the model in simulating experimental results suggests that the proposed mechanism, adsorption of moisture from the vapor phase by hygroscopic compounds, explains the observed increase in the flux from the irrigation system.
Rahman AKMM, Ahmed KM, Butler AP, et al., 2018, Influence of surface geology and micro-scale land use on the shallow subsurface salinity in deltaic coastal areas: a case from southwest Bangladesh, Environmental Earth Sciences, Vol: 77, ISSN: 1866-6280
Salinity, both in soil and water, is a ubiquitous problem in coastal Bangladesh, particularly in the southwest. Salinity varies at the local scale (5–10 m), but the relative roles of land use and surface geology on salinity variation in near-surface (< 5 m) groundwater are not fully understood. Surface geology, land use and salinity in near-surface (ca. 3 m) groundwater at two small sites (each 0.05 km2) were explored in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. The sediments in the near-surface at both sites are fine and hydrometer analyses of cored samples indicate the dominance of silty clay (70%) along with very fine sand (5%), sandy clay (15%) and clay (10%) materials. Salinity variation in near-surface groundwater tends to follow land use rather than surface geology at the scale of our investigations. The study provides evidence of the influence of land use on the near-surface salinity variation and indicates the importance of land-use planning in salinity management in coastal areas.
Hammoud AS, Leung J, Tripathi S, et al., 2018, The impact of latrine contents and emptying practices on nitrogen contamination of well water in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, AIMS Environmental Science, Vol: 5, Pages: 143-153, ISSN: 2372-0352
Leaching of nitrogen-containing compounds (e.g., ammonia, nitrate) from pit latrines and seepage tanks into groundwater may pose health risks, given that groundwater is a significant source for drinking water in many low-income countries. In this study, three communities within Kathmandu, Nepal (Manohara, Kupondole, and Lokanthali) were visited to investigate the impact of pit latrines on groundwater quality, with a focus on understanding the fate of nitrogen-containing compounds specifically. Well water samples were analyzed over two seasons (wet and dry) for their nitrogen content, dissolved oxygen (DO), chemical oxidation demand (COD), and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), and samples collected from within the nearby pits were also analyzed to determine nitrogen content and COD. Hand dug wells were found to be more likely receptors of contamination than tube wells, as expected, with inter-well variations related to the relative redox conditions in the wells. Increased pit-emptying frequency was related to lower levels of nitrogen in the latrines and in the nearest wells, suggesting this may be an effective strategy for reducing the risks of groundwater contamination in such settings, all else being equal.
MacAllister DJ, Jackson MD, Butler AP, et al., 2018, Remote detection of saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer using borehole measurements of self potential, Water Resources Research, Vol: 54, Pages: 1669-1687, ISSN: 0043-1397
Two years of self‐potential (SP) measurements were made in a monitoring borehole in the coastal UK Chalk aquifer. The borehole SP data showed a persistent gradient with depth, and temporal variations with a tidal power spectrum consistent with ocean tides. No gradient with depth was observed at a second coastal monitoring borehole ca. 1 km further inland, and no gradient or tidal power spectrum were observed at an inland site ca. 80 km from the coast. Numerical modeling suggests that the SP gradient recorded in the coastal monitoring borehole is dominated by the exclusion‐diffusion potential, which arises from the concentration gradient across a saline front in close proximity to, but not intersecting, the base of the borehole. No such saline front is present at the two other monitoring sites. Modeling further suggests that the ocean tidal SP response in the borehole, measured prior to breakthrough of saline water, is dominated by the exclusion‐diffusion potential across the saline front, and that the SP fluctuations are due to the tidal movement of the remote front. The electrokinetic potential, caused by changes in hydraulic head across the tide, is one order of magnitude too small to explain the observed SP data. The results suggest that in coastal aquifers, the exclusion‐diffusion potential plays a dominant role in borehole SP when a saline front is nearby. The SP gradient with depth indicates the close proximity of the saline front to the borehole and changes in SP at the borehole reflect changes in the location of the saline front. Thus, SP monitoring can be used to facilitate more proactive management of abstraction and saline intrusion in coastal aquifers.
Mathias SA, Sorensen JPR, Butler AP, 2017, Soil moisture data as a constraint for groundwater recharge estimation, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 552, Pages: 258-266, ISSN: 0022-1694
Estimating groundwater recharge rates is important for water resource management studies. Modeling approaches to forecast groundwater recharge typically require observed historic data to assist calibration. It is generally not possible to observe groundwater recharge rates directly. Therefore, in the past, much effort has been invested to record soil moisture content (SMC) data, which can be used in a water balance calculation to estimate groundwater recharge. In this context, SMC data is measured at different depths and then typically integrated with respect to depth to obtain a single set of aggregated SMC values, which are used as an estimate of the total water stored within a given soil profile. This article seeks to investigate the value of such aggregated SMC data for conditioning groundwater recharge models in this respect. A simple modeling approach is adopted, which utilizes an emulation of Richards’ equation in conjunction with a soil texture pedotransfer function. The only unknown parameters are soil texture. Monte Carlo simulation is performed for four different SMC monitoring sites. The model is used to estimate both aggregated SMC and groundwater recharge. The impact of conditioning the model to the aggregated SMC data is then explored in terms of its ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with recharge estimation. Whilst uncertainty in soil texture can lead to significant uncertainty in groundwater recharge estimation, it is found that aggregated SMC is virtually insensitive to soil texture.
Scheelbeek P, Chowdhury MAH, Haines A, et al., 2017, Drinking water salinity and raised blood pressure: evidence from a cohort study in coastal Bangladesh, Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 125, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 0091-6765
BACKGROUND: Millions of coastal inhabitants in Southeast Asia have been experiencing increasing sodium concentrations in their drinking-water sources, likely partially due to climate change. High (dietary) sodium intake has convincingly been proven to increase risk of hypertension; it remains unknown, however, whether consumption of sodium in drinking water could have similar effects on health. OBJECTIVES: We present the results of a cohort study in which we assessed the effects of drinking-water sodium (DWS) on blood pressure (BP) in coastal populations in Bangladesh. METHODS: DWS, BP, and information on personal, lifestyle, and environmental factors were collected from 581 participants. We used generalized linear latent and mixed methods to model the effects of DWS on BP and assessed the associations between changes in DWS and BP when participants experienced changing sodium levels in water, switched from "conventional" ponds or tube wells to alternatives [managed aquifer recharge (MAR) and rainwater harvesting] that aimed to reduce sodium levels, or experienced a combination of these changes. RESULTS: DWS concentrations were highly associated with BP after adjustments for confounding factors. Furthermore, for each 100 mg/L reduction in sodium in drinking water, systolic/diastolic BP was lower on average by 0.95/0.57 mmHg, and odds of hypertension were lower by 14%. However, MAR did not consistently lower sodium levels. CONCLUSIONS: DWS is an important source of daily sodium intake in salinity-affected areas and is a risk factor for hypertension. Considering the likely increasing trend in coastal salinity, prompt action is required. Because MAR showed variable effects, alternative technologies for providing reliable, safe, low-sodium fresh water should be developed alongside improvements in MAR and evaluated in "real-life" salinity-affected settings.
Habib A, Sorensen JPR, Bloomfield JP, et al., 2017, Temporal scaling phenomena in groundwater-floodplain systems using robust detrended fluctuation analysis, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 549, Pages: 715-730, ISSN: 0022-1694
In order to determine objectively the fractal behaviour of a time series, and to facilitate potential future attempts to assess model performance by incorporating fractal behaviour, a multi-order robust detrended fluctuation analysis (r-DFAn) procedure is developed herein. The r-DFAn procedure allows for robust and automated quantification of mono-fractal behaviour. The fractal behaviour is quantified with three parts: a global scaling exponent, crossovers, and local scaling exponents. The robustness of the r-DFAn procedure is established by the systematic use of robust regression, piecewise linear regression, Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) and Multiple Comparison Procedure to determine statistically significant scaling exponents and optimum crossover locations. The MATLAB code implementing the r-DFAn procedure has also been open sourced to enable reproducible results.r-DFAn will be illustrated on a synthetic signal after which is used to analyse high-resolution hydrologic data; although the r-DFAn procedure is not limited to hydrological or geophysical time series. The hydrological data are 4 year-long datasets (January 2012 to January 2016) of 1-min groundwater level, river stage, groundwater and river temperature, and 15-min precipitation and air temperature, at Wallingford, UK. The datasets are analysed in both time and fractal domains. The study area is a shallow riparian aquifer in hydraulic connection to River Thames, which traverses the site. The unusually high resolution datasets, along with the responsive nature of the aquifer, enable detailed examination of the various data and their interconnections in both time- and fractal-domains.
Foster T, Brozovic N, Butler AP, 2017, Effects of initial aquifer conditions on economic benefits from groundwater conservation, Water Resources Research, Vol: 53, Pages: 744-762, ISSN: 0043-1397
Worldwide, there is growing recognition of the need to reduce agricultural groundwater use in response to rapid rates of aquifer depletion. To date, however, few studies have evaluated how benefits of conservation vary along an aquifer's depletion pathway. To address this question, we develop an integrated modeling framework that couples an agro-economic model of farmers' field-level irrigation decision-making with a borehole-scale groundwater flow model. Unique to this framework is the explicit consideration of the dynamic reductions in well yields that occur as an aquifer is depleted, and how these changes in intraseasonal groundwater supply affect farmers' ability to manage production risks caused by climate variability and, in particular, drought. For an illustrative case study in the High Plains region of the United States, we apply our model to analyze the value of groundwater conservation activities for different initial aquifer conditions. Our results demonstrate that there is a range of initial conditions for which reducing pumping will have long-term economic benefits for farmers by slowing reductions in well yields and prolonging the usable lifetime of an aquifer for high-value irrigated agriculture. In contrast, restrictions on pumping that are applied too early or too late will provide limited welfare benefits. We suggest, therefore, that there are ‘windows of opportunity’ to implement groundwater conservation, which will depend on complex feedbacks between local hydrology, climate, crop growth, and economics.
MacAllister DJ, Jackson MD, Butler AP, et al., 2016, Tidal influence on self-potential measurements, Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, Vol: 121, Pages: 8432-8452, ISSN: 2169-9313
Long-term surface and borehole self-potential (SP) monitoring was conducted in the UK Chalk aquifer at two sites. The coastal site is ~1.7 km from the coast, and the inland site is ~80 km from the coast. At both sites, power spectral density analysis revealed that SP data contain the main ocean tidal periodic components. However, the principal lunar component (M2), the dominant ocean tidal component, was most significant at the coastal site. The M2 signal in surface-referenced SP data at the inland site was partly due to telluric currents caused by the geomagnetic ocean dynamo. Earth and/or atmospheric tides also contributed, as the SP power spectrum was not typical of a telluric electric field. The M2 component in borehole-referenced data at the inland site was below the significance level of the analysis method and was 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the M2 signal in borehole-referenced SP data at the coastal site. The tidal response of the SP data in the coastal borehole is, therefore, primarily driven by ocean tides. These cause changes in fluid pressure and chemical concentration gradients within the coastal aquifer, leading to time varying electrokinetic and exclusion-diffusion potentials. Borehole-referenced SP measurements could be used to characterize and monitor tidal processes in coastal aquifers such as the intrusion of seawater.
Foster T, Brozović N, Butler AP, et al., 2016, AquaCrop-OS: an open source version of FAO's crop water productivity model, Agricultural Water Management, Vol: 181, Pages: 18-22, ISSN: 1873-2283
Crop simulation models are valuable tools for quantifying crop yield response to water, and for devising strategies to improve agricultural water management. However, applicability of the majority of crop models is limited greatly by a failure to provide open-access to model source code. In this study, we present an open-source version of the FAO AquaCrop model, which simulates efficiently water-limited crop production across diverse environmental and agronomic conditions. Our model, called AquaCrop-OpenSource (AquaCrop-OS), can be run in multiple programming languages and operating systems. Support for parallel execution reduces significantly simulation times when applying the model in large geospatial frameworks, for long-run policy analysis, or for uncertainty assessment. Furthermore, AquaCrop-OS is compliant with the Open Modelling Interface standard facilitating linkage to other disciplinary models, for example to guide integrated water resources planning.
Scheelbeek PFD, Chowdhury MAH, Haines A, et al., 2016, High concentrations of sodium in drinking water and raised blood pressure in coastal deltas affected by episodic seawater inundations, Lancet Global Health, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2214-109X
Background In times of seawater inundation in coastal deltas, unprotected drinking water sources, such as ponds andshallow tube wells, take on salt water with each inundation. Daily consumption of these saline sources contributes tooverall sodium intake. Although there is evidence that a high dietary salt intake is an important risk factor forhypertension, little is known about the eff ect of high concentrations of sodium in drinking water on populationhealth. In this longitudinal study, we aimed to measure the eff ect of high concentrations of sodium in drinking wateron blood pressure and to assess the reversibility of raised blood pressure when conventional drinking water sourceswere replaced by low-saline water.Methods We used a multistage sampling process to recruit participants aged 18 years or older from the salinityaffectedsub-districts of Dacope, Batiagatha, and Paikgatchha in coastal Bangladesh. Most participants consumeddrinking water from highly saline sources, such as ponds and tube-wells, while a small percentage had access torainwater. In March, 2013, we recorded: baseline concentrations of sodium in drinking water; participants’ bloodpressure; and personal, lifestyle, and environmental characteristics. During the study period, some study participantsgained access to low-saline drinking water alternatives that were installed for use in the dry season, when water fromponds becomes more saline. In March, 2014, and May, 2014, we made follow-up assessments of drinking watersodium, blood pressure, and repeated the questionnaire about personal, lifestyle, and environmental characteristics.We used generalised linear mixed methods to model the eff ect of drinking water sodium on blood pressure andassess reversibility of raised blood pressure when participants switched from conventional drinking water sources tolow-saline alternatives.Findings We included data from 581 participants in analysis, of which 277 (48%) were male. Median age was 38 years(IQR 30&
Hoque MA, Scheelbeek PFD, Vineis P, et al., 2016, Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia, Climatic Change, Vol: 136, Pages: 247-236, ISSN: 0165-0009
Drinking water in much of Asia, particularly in coastal and rural settings, isprovided by a variety of sources, which are widely distributed and frequently managed atan individual or local community level. Coastal and near-inland drinking water sources inSouth and South East (SSE) Asia are vulnerable to contamination by seawater, mostdramatically from tropical cyclone induced storm surges. This paper assesses spatialvulnerabilities to salinisation of drinking water sources due to meteorological variabilityand climate change along the (ca. 6000 km) coastline of SSE Asia. The risks of increasingclimatic stresses are first considered, and then maps of relative vulnerability along theentire coastline are developed, using data from global scale land surface models, alongwith an overall vulnerability index. The results show that surface and near-surfacedrinking water in the coastal areas of the mega-deltas in Vietnam and Bangladesh-Indiaare most vulnerable, putting more than 25 million people at risk of drinking ‘saline’ water.Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem, with adverse consequences for health,such as prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. There is a need foridentifying locations that are most at risk of salinisation in order for policy makers andlocal officials to implement strategies for reducing these health impacts. To counter therisks associated with these vulnerabilities, possible adaptation measures are also outlined.
Le Vine N, Butler A, McIntyre N, et al., 2016, Diagnosing hydrological limitations of a land surface model: application of JULES to a deep-groundwater chalk basin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 20, Pages: 143-159, ISSN: 1027-5606
Land surface models (LSMs) are prospective starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. However, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. A diagnostic approach to model evaluation and improvement is taken here that exploits hydrological expert knowledge to detect LSM inadequacies through consideration of the major behavioural functions of a hydrological system: overall water balance, vertical water redistribution in the unsaturated zone, temporal water redistribution, and spatial water redistribution over the catchment's groundwater and surface-water systems. Three types of information are utilized to improve the model's hydrology: (a) observations, (b) information about expected response from regionalized data, and (c) information from an independent physics-based model. The study considers the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to a deep-groundwater chalk catchment in the UK. The diagnosed hydrological limitations and the proposed ways to address them are indicative of the challenges faced while transitioning to a global high resolution model of the water cycle.
Parker SJ, Butler AP, Jackson CR, 2016, Seasonal and interannual behaviour of groundwater catchment boundaries in a Chalk aquifer, Hydrological Processes, Vol: 30, Pages: 3-11, ISSN: 1099-1085
Groundwater catchment boundaries and their associated groundwater catchment areas are typically assumed to be fixed on a seasonal basis. We investigated whether this was true for a highly permeable carbonate aquifer in England, the Berkshire and Marlborough Downs Chalk aquifer, using both borehole hydrograph data and a physics-based distributed regional groundwater model. Borehole hydrograph data time series were used to construct a monthly interpolated water table surface, from which was then derived a monthly groundwater catchment boundary. Results from field data showed that the mean annual variation in groundwater catchment area was about 20% of the mean groundwater catchment area, but interannual variation can be very large, with the largest estimated catchment size being approximately 80% greater than the smallest. The flow in the river was also dependent on the groundwater catchment area. Model results corroborated those based on field data. These findings have significant implications for issues such as definition of source protection zones, recharge estimates based on water balance calculations and integrated conceptual modelling of surface water and groundwater systems.
Hoque MA, Butler AP, 2016, Mineral nutrients and toxicants in Bangladesh groundwater—do we need a holistic approach to water quality?, Pages: 416-418
Groundwater, a drinking water source for > 95% of inhabitants living in Bangladesh, has received much attention because of its naturally occurring Arsenic (As), but the coupling or decou-pling of As toxicity by other water constituents remains unexplored. Although food provides nutrients, in rural settings, where people subsist on a low nutrient diet, drinking-water-nutrients may supply quantities significant for human health thereby preventing diseases. Here, we show, using augmented datasets from Bangladesh, that the content of groundwater is such that in some areas individuals obtain up to 50% or more of the Recommended Daily Intake (RDI) of some nutrients (e.g., calcium, magnesium, iron) from just 2 litres of drinking water. We also show the spatial association of groundwater nutrients and health outcomes in Bangladesh. We suggest, therefore, that a holistic approach, i.e., considering the entire range of groundwater constituents, should be considered when undertaking health impact studies of groundwater.
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