Imperial College London
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DrAnneCori

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Lecturer in Infectious Disease Modelling
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3229a.cori

 
 
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Location

 

404School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Green:2022:10.1098/rsif.2021.0429,
author = {Green, WD and Ferguson, NM and Cori, A},
doi = {10.1098/rsif.2021.0429},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Society Interface},
title = {Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0429},
volume = {19},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Real-time estimation of the reproduction number has become the focus ofmodelling groups around the world as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolds.One of the most widely adopted means of inference of the reproductionnumber is via the renewal equation, which uses the incidence of infectionand the generation time distribution. In this paper, we derive a multi-typeequivalent to the renewal equation to estimate a reproduction numberwhich accounts for heterogeneity in transmissibility including throughasymptomatic transmission, symptomatic isolation and vaccination. Wedemonstrate how use of the renewal equation that misses these heterogeneitiescan result in biased estimates of the reproduction number. While thebias is small with symptomatic isolation, it can be much larger with asymptomatictransmission or transmission from vaccinated individuals if thesegroups exhibit substantially different generation time distributions to unvaccinatedsymptomatic transmitters, whose generation time distribution isoften well defined. The bias in estimate becomes larger with greater populationsize or transmissibility of the poorly characterized group. We applyour methodology to Ebola in West Africa in 2014 and the SARS-CoV-2 inthe UK in 2020–2021.
AU  - Green,WD
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Cori,A
DO  - 10.1098/rsif.2021.0429
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 1742-5662
TI  - Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics
T2  - Journal of the Royal Society Interface
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2021.0429
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000778665500004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2021.0429
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/98032
VL  - 19
ER  -
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