Imperial College London

Emeritus ProfessorAndrewEvans

Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Emeritus Professor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

a.evans Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Mrs Maya Mistry +44 (0)20 7594 6100

 
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Location

 

406Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

116 results found

Evans AW, Hughes P, 2019, Traverses, delays and fatalities at railway level crossings in Great Britain, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol: 129, Pages: 66-75, ISSN: 0001-4575

This paper investigates relationships between traverses, delays and fatalities to road users at railway level crossings in Great Britain. A 'traverse' means a passage across a level crossing by a road user, who may be a pedestrian, cyclist, or occupant of a road vehicle. The paper finds that the road users with the highest fatality rate per traverse are pedestrians at passive crossings. Their rate is about three orders of magnitude higher than that of users with the lowest risk, who are road vehicle occupants at railway-controlled crossings. The paper considers the choice between automatic and railway-controlled crossings on public roads. Railway-controlled crossings are widely used in Britain. They are about one order of magnitude safer than automatic crossings, but they impose greater delays on users. A formula is developed to give the overall delay to road users at either type of crossing in terms of the numbers of road users and trains per day, and in terms of the length of time that the crossing must be closed to the road to allow the passage of one train. It is found that automatic level crossings cause substantially less delay than railway-controlled level crossings. The official monetary values of road user delay and of preventing a fatality were used to estimate the valuations of delays and fatalities at hypothetical but representative automatic and railway-controlled crossings. These valuations were then used to explore the effect of replacing representative railway-controlled with automatic crossings or vice-versa. It is found that the valuation of the reduced delays from adopting automatic crossings typically outweighs the valuation of the losses from the increased casualties. However, in practice Britain has chosen to retain a large number of railway-controlled crossings, which implies accepting the delays in return for a good level crossing safety record. Finally, an analysis is carried out to determine the additional risk of typical car and walk journ

Journal article

Evans AW, 2018, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2017

Report

Evans AW, 2018, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2017 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2017, based on fatal accident data over the 51-year period 1967 to 2017. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2017 for the tenth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.22 per year in 2016 to 0.20 in 2017. The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 0.89 in 2016 to 0.81 in 2017. There were two accidental fatal collisions between trains and road motor vehicles in 2017, each with one fatality. This was a poorer performance than the zero such accidents in 2015 and 2016, but it was in line with previous years. The estimated frequency of such accidents was 1.77 per year in 2017, compared with 1.80in 2016, with 2.45 fatalities per year in 2017 compared with 2.51 in 2016. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 7.2% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.6% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of these estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated more fatalities per year than this paper.

Report

Evans AW, 2017, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2016

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe’s main line railways from 1980 to 2016. The paper is one of an annual series starting with 1980 to 2009. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2016, together with Norway and Switzerland. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is –5.3% per year from 1990 to 2016, with a 95% confidence interval of –7.0% to -3.7%. The estimated accident rate in 2016 is 1.07 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, which represents a fall of 73% since 1990. This gives an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2016 of 4.7. The actual number offatal train collisions and derailments in 2016 was 6, which is fairly close to the trend. The estimated mean number of fatalities in 2016 was 20.4, but the actual number was 51, which is well above its mean. That is because some accidents in 2016 were unusually severe, including accidents with 12 and 23 fatalities. This contrasts with 2015, in which the number of fatalities was 5 from 4 fatal accidents. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of severe accidents at level crossings fell only slowly and not statistically significantly in 1990-2016.

Report

Evans AW, 2017, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2016 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2016, based on fatal accident data over the 50-year period 1967 to 2016. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2016 for the ninth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.26 per year in 2015 to 0.22 in 2016. The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 1.01 in 2015 to 0.89 in 2016. There were no accidental fatal collisions between trains and road motor vehicles in 2016 for the second calendar year in succession. That leads to an estimated frequency of 1.80 such accidents per year in 2016, compared with 2.03 in 2015, with 2.51 fatalities per year in 2016 compared with 2.83 in 2015. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 7.2% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.6% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of these estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated more fatalities per year than this paper

Report

Evans AW, 2016, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2015

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe’s main line railways from 1980 to 2015. The paper is one of an annual series starting with 1980 to 2009. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2015, together with Norway and Switzerland. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is –5.5% per year from 1990 to 2015, with a 95% confidence interval of –7.2% to -3.8%. The estimated accident rate in 2015 is 1.10 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in Europe in 2015 of 4.8. These results are similar to those in the previous paper, because the number of fatal accidents in 2015 was 4, and thus fairly close to the trend. However, the number of fatalities in 2015 was well below its mean, at 5. This was the same as that in 2014, but both figures contrast with the 91 fatalities in 2013, which was far above its mean because of the exceptional severity of the passenger train derailment near Santiago de Compostela in Spain with 79 fatalities. The effect of these results was to raise the estimated overall number of fatalities per fatal accident by 7% from 4.04 in 1990- 2012 to 4.31 in 1990-2013, and to lower it again to 4.20 in 1990-2015. The estimated mean fatalities per year rose by 6% from 22.3 in 2012 to 23.7 in 2013, and then fell again by 14% to 20.4 in 2015. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is sig

Report

Evans AW, 2016, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2015 analysis, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2015 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2015, based on fatal accident data over the 49-year period 1967 to 2015. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2015 for the eighth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.31 per year in 2013 to 0.26 in 2015. The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 1.22 in 2013 to 1.01 in 2015. There were two accidental fatal collisions between trains and road motor vehicles in 2014, causing two road vehicle fatalities, and none in 2015. That performance leads to an estimated frequency of 2.03 such accidents per year in 2015, compared with 2.23 in 2013, with 2.83 fatalities per year in 2015 compared with 3.12 in 2013. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 7.1% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.5% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of the estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated more fatalities per year than this paper.

Report

Evans AW, 2014, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2013, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2013

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe’s main line railways from 1980 to 2013. The paper is the fifth in an annual series starting with 1980 to 2009. The data cover the 28 countries of the European Union as in 2013, together with Norway and Switzerland. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is –5.4% per year from 1990 to 2013, with a 95% confidence interval of –7.2% to 3.5%. The estimated accident rate in 2013 is 1.26 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2013 of 5.5. These results are similar to those in the previous paper, because the number of fatal accidents in 2013 was 6, and close to the trend. However, the number of fatalities in 2013 was 91; this was far above its mean, because of the exceptional severity of the passenger train derailment near Santiago de Compostela in Spain with 79 fatalities. That has the effect of raising the estimated overall number of fatalities per fatal accident by 7% from 4.04 in 1990-2012 to 4.31 in 1990-2013, and the estimated mean fatalities per year by 6% from 22.3 in 2012 to 23.7 in 2013. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of severe accidents at level crossings fell only slowly and not statistically significantly in 1990-2013, despite a good safe

Report

Evans AW, 2014, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2013 analysis, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2013 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2013, based on fatal accident data over the 47-year period 1967 to 2013. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2013 for the sixth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.34 per year in 2012 to 0.31 in 2013 .The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 1.36 in 2012 to 1.22 in 2013. On the other hand, there were three accidental fatal collisions between trains and road vehicles in 2013, causing four car occupant fatalities. That performance leads to an estimated frequency of 2.23 such accidents per year in 2013, compared with 2.27 in 2012, with 3.12 fatalities per year in 2013 compared with 3.18 in 2012. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 6.9% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.3% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of the estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated somewhat more fatalities per year than this paper.

Report

Law TH, Noland RB, Evans AW, 2013, Factors Associated with the Enactment of Safety Belt and Motorcycle Helmet Laws, RISK ANALYSIS, Vol: 33, Pages: 1367-1378, ISSN: 0272-4332

Journal article

Evans AW, 2013, Fatal train accidents on Britain's main line railways: end of 2012 analysis

This paper updates the author’s previous statistical analyses of fatal train accidents on running lines of the national railway system of Great Britain to the end of 2012, based on fatal accident data over the 46-year period 1967 to 2012. There were no fatal train collisions, derailments or overruns in 2012 for the fifth consecutive calendar year. That continuing good performance contributes to a further reduction in the estimated mean frequency of such accidents from 0.38 per year in 2011 to 0.34 in 2012 .The estimated mean number of fatalities per year in such accidents fell from 1.50 in 2011 to 1.36 in 2012. On the other hand, there were three accidental fatal collisions between trains and road vehicles in 2012, each with one fatality. That performance leads to an estimated frequency of 2.27 such accidents per year in 2012, compared with 2.29 in 2011, with 3.18 fatalities per year in 2012 compared with 3.21 in 2011. The long-term rate of reduction in the accident rate per train-kilometre is estimated to be 6.8% per year for train collisions, derailments and overruns, and 3.4% per year for collisions between trains and road motor vehicles. The paper examines the evolution of the estimates since 2001, and makes comparisons with results of the Safety Risk Model (SRM) of the Rail Safety and Standards Board. Both sources estimate long term reductions in mean fatalities per year in train collisions, derailments and overruns, but the SRM has consistently estimated somewhat more fatalities per year than this paper.

Report

Evans AW, 2013, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2012

This paper presents an analysis of fatal train accident rates and trends on Europe’s main line railways from 1980 to 2012. The paper updates a previous analysis by the author for 1980 to 2009. The data cover the 27 countries of the European Union as in 2012, together with Norway and Switzerland. The data were assembled partly under the auspices of the European Railway Agency and partly on the author’s own account. The estimated overall trend in the number of fatal train collisions and derailments per train-kilometre is –5.7% per year from 1990 to 2012, with a 95% confidence interval of –7.6% to 3.7%. The estimated accident rate in 2012 is 1.27 fatal collisions or derailments per billion train-kilometres, giving an estimated mean number of fatal accidents in 2012 of 5.5. The overall number of fatalities per fatal accident in 1990-2012 is 4.04, with no apparent long term change over time, giving an estimated mean of 22.3 fatalities per year in train collisions and derailments in 2012. There are statistically significant differences in the fatal train accident rates and trends between the different European countries, although the estimates of the rates and trends for many individual countries have wide confidence limits. The distribution of broad causes of accidents appears to have remained unchanged over the long term, so that safety improvements appear to have been across the board, and not focused on any specific cause. The most frequent cause of fatal train collisions and derailments is signals passed at danger. In contrast to fatal train collisions and derailments, the rate per train-kilometre of serious accidents at level crossings fell only slowly and not statistically significantly in 1990-2012.The immediate causes of most of the serious level crossing accidents are errors or violations by road users.

Report

Bichou K, Evans A, 2013, Maritime security and regulatory risk-based models: Review and critical analysis, Risk Management in Port Operations, Logistics and Supply-Chain Security, Pages: 265-280, ISBN: 9781315850504

The primary aim of maritime security assessment models is to assess the level of security within and across the maritime network. When managing risk through legislation, regulatory assessment models are used to assess risk levels and examine the impact of policy options, usually in terms of the costs and benefits of a regulatory proposal. This chapter reviews the development, application and adequacy of existing risk assessment and management models to maritime and port security. In particular, we examine the problematical issues of security perception, value and impact, and discuss the limitations of the current regulatory framework in providing an integrated and effective approach to risk assessment and management including for supply-chain security.

Book chapter

Bichou K, Bell MGH, Evans A, 2013, Introduction, ISBN: 9781315850504

Book

Evans AW, 2013, The Economics of Railway Safety, Research in Transportation Economics, Vol: 43, Pages: 137-147

This paper reviews the statistics and economics of railway safety in Great Britain, the European Union and the United States, together with some results for Finland and Japan. In these countries railway safety has improved over recent decades. That finding applies both to train accidents and to personal accidents such as persons struck by trains. Fatal train collisions and derailments command most attention even though they are infrequent and account for only a small minority of railway fatalities. Great Britain, the EU and the USA formally espouse conventional cost benefit analysis for the appraisal of railway safety measures, using the same valuations for the prevention of casualties as are used in road safety appraisal. However there are often strong institutional, legal and political pressures towards adopting railway safety measures with safety benefit: cost ratios well below 1. The best-documented examples of this are automatic train protection systems, which are discussed in the paper. Apart from trespassers, the largest group of railway fatalities occur at level crossings, which the paper also discusses. Level crossing safety measures would seem to be an appropriate subject for cost benefit analysis, but there are few case-studies in the literature. Over the last few decades, the railways in many countries have been privatised or deregulated with the aim of improving their economic performance. Such changes have the potential to affect safety. The paper reviews evidence of the effects on safety of railway restructuring in Great Britain, Japan and the United States, and finds no evidence that safety deteriorated.

Journal article

Bichou K, Bell M, Evans A, otherset al., 2013, Risk management in port operations, logistics and supply chain security, Publisher: CRC Press

Book

Evans AW, 2011, Fatal accidents at railway level crossings in Great Britain 1946-2009, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 43, Pages: 1837-1845, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Law TH, Noland RB, Evans AW, 2011, The sources of the Kuznets relationship between road fatalities and economic growth, JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY, Vol: 19, Pages: 355-365, ISSN: 0966-6923

Journal article

Evans AW, 2011, Fatal train accidents on Europe's railways: 1980-2009, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 43, Pages: 391-401, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Hua LT, Noland RB, Evans AW, 2010, The direct and indirect effects of corruption on motor vehicle crash deaths, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 42, Pages: 1934-1942, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Evans AW, 2010, Rail safety and rail privatisation in Japan, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 42, Pages: 1296-1301, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Law TH, Noland RB, Evans AW, 2009, Factors associated with the relationship between motorcycle deaths and economic growth, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 41, Pages: 234-240, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Evans AW, Addison JD, 2009, Interactions between rail and road safety in Great Britain, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 41, Pages: 48-56, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Evans AW, 2009, Economic Appraisal of Road Safety Measures in Great Britain, 2nd International Symposium on Road Safety, Publisher: TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC, Pages: 160-177, ISSN: 1556-8318

Conference paper

Evans A, 2008, Keynote address, Pages: 1-15

Conference paper

Allsop R, Carsten O, Evans A, Gifford Ret al., 2008, Seat belt laws: Why we should keep them, Significance, Vol: 5, Pages: 84-86, ISSN: 1740-9705

In the June 2007 issue of Significance, John Adams argued for the repeal of seat belt laws. They have never been demonstrated to save lives, he said; and they increase the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed on the roads. Richard Allsop, Oliver Carsten, Andrew Evans and Robert Gifford argue that Parliament should keep the seat belt laws on the statute book and that we should all keep wearing belts whenever we travel in a car, van or coach - and they contest John's statistics. © 2008 The Royal Statistical Society.

Journal article

Gray RC, Quddus MA, Evans A, 2008, Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain, JOURNAL OF SAFETY RESEARCH, Vol: 39, Pages: 483-495, ISSN: 0022-4375

Journal article

Evans AW, 2007, Rail safety and rail privatisation in Britain, ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION, Vol: 39, Pages: 510-523, ISSN: 0001-4575

Journal article

Evans A, 2007, Rail safety and rail privatization, Significance, Vol: 4, Pages: 15-18, ISSN: 1740-9705

Privatisation of the state-owned British railway system was completed in 1997. The following 6 years saw four serious fatal train accidents, leading to 49 deaths. These were the train collisions at Southall in 1997 and Ladbroke Grove in 1999, each caused by trains passing red signals, and the derailments at Hatfield in 2000 and Potters Bar in 2002, each caused by defective track. Has safety been compromised by the sell-off of the railways? Andrew Evans looks at the evidence and asks has privatisation led to more accidents? © 2007 The Royal Statistical Society.

Journal article

Evans AW, 2005, Railway risks, safety values and safety costs, PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-TRANSPORT, Vol: 158, Pages: 3-9, ISSN: 0965-092X

Journal article

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