Imperial College London
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Dr Ajay Gambhir

Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change

Visiting Researcher
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 6363a.gambhir

 
 
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Location

 

Electrical EngineeringSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Vallejo:2021,
author = {Vallejo, L and Mazur, C and Strapasson, A and Cockerill, T and Gambhir, A and Hills, T and Jennings, M and Jones, O and Kalas, N and Keirstead, J and Khor, C and Napp, T and Tong, D and Woods, J and Shah, N},
journal = {International Energy Journal},
pages = {147--158},
title = {Halving Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: Technologies and Costs},
url = {http://www.rericjournal.ait.ac.th/index.php/reric/article/view/2385},
volume = {21},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - This study provides a whole-systems simulation on how to halve global CO2 emissions by 2050, compared to 2010, with an emphasis on technologies and costs, in order to avoid a dangerous increase in the global mean surface temperature by end the of this century. There still remains uncertainty as to how much a low-carbon energy system costs compared to a high-carbon system. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) show a large range of costs of mitigation towards the 2°C target, with up to an order of magnitude difference between the highest and lowest cost, depending on a number of factors including model structure, technology availability and costs, and the degree of feedback with the wider macro-economy. A simpler analysis potentially serves to highlight where costs fall and to what degree. Here we show that the additional cost of a low-carbon energy system is less than 1% of global GDP more than a system resulting from low mitigation effort. The proposed approach aligns with some previous IAMs and other projections discussed in the paper, whilst also providing a clearer and more detailed view of the world. Achieving this system by 2050, with CO2 emissions of about 15GtCO2, depends heavily on decarbonisation of the electricity sector to around 100gCO2/kWh, as well as on maximising energy efficiency potential across all sectors. This scenario would require a major mitigation effort in all the assessed world regions. However, in order to keep the global mean surface temperature increase below 1.5°C, it would be necessary to achieve net-zero emission by 2050, requiring a much further mitigation effort.
AU  - Vallejo,L
AU  - Mazur,C
AU  - Strapasson,A
AU  - Cockerill,T
AU  - Gambhir,A
AU  - Hills,T
AU  - Jennings,M
AU  - Jones,O
AU  - Kalas,N
AU  - Keirstead,J
AU  - Khor,C
AU  - Napp,T
AU  - Tong,D
AU  - Woods,J
AU  - Shah,N
EP  - 158
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1513-718X
SP  - 147
TI  - Halving Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: Technologies and Costs
T2  - International Energy Journal
UR  - http://www.rericjournal.ait.ac.th/index.php/reric/article/view/2385
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86376
VL  - 21
ER  -
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