My research combines the use of mathematical models and statistical methods to understand the transmission dynamics and control of a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. The focus of my research is applied, developing both simple compartmental models and more complex individual-based models, to explore the impact of interventions and to help guide policy. In the past I have worked on a wide range of infectious diseases, including BSE and vCJD, sexually transmitted infections including HIV, and SARS.
More recently my research has focused on the development of models that can inform policies on how, where and when to implement different interventions against malaria to aid local elimination, and eventual eradication, of the parasite. See our malaria research group pages for further details.
Since early 2020 I have been involved in our Centre's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The focus of my research has been to understand the course of the global pandemic and how factors that differ between countries (such as demography, mixing patterns and access to healthcare) shape this. We are currently focused on evaluating the potential impact of different COVID-19 vaccination strategies, and are working closely with global health agencies to use modelling to help support decisions on vaccine roll-out.
I teach on Imperial College's short course on Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases. This is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods.
Short course on Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases: www.infectiousdiseasemodels.org
et al., 2016, Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:16, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:465-472
et al., 2015, Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies, Nature, Vol:528, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:S94-S101
et al., 2015, Expanding the role of diagnostic and prognostic tools for infectious diseases in resource-poor settings, Nature, Vol:528, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:S50-S52
et al., 2015, Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:15, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:1450-1458
et al., 2015, Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:15, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:825-832
et al., 2011, Efficacy model for antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccines, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol:278, ISSN:0962-8452, Pages:1298-1305
et al., 2010, Reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa: a model-based evaluation of intervention strategies., Plos Med, Vol:7, ISSN:1549-1676, Pages:1-27
et al., 2010, Interpreting Tuberculin Skin Tests in a Population With a High Prevalence of HIV, Tuberculosis, and Nonspecific Tuberculin Sensitivity, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol:171, ISSN:0002-9262, Pages:1037-1045
et al., 2010, A Bayesian Approach to Quantifying the Effects of Mass Poultry Vaccination upon the Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam, PLOS Computational Biology, Vol:6, ISSN:1553-734X
et al., 2009, Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic, British Medical Journal, Vol:339, ISSN:0959-8146
et al., 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, Science, Vol:324, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:1557-1561
et al., 2009, Loss of Population Levels of Immunity to Malaria as a Result of Exposure-Reducing Interventions: Consequences for Interpretation of Disease Trends, PLOS One, Vol:4, ISSN:1932-6203
et al., 2008, Modelling the impact of artemisinin combination therapy and long-acting treatments on malaria transmission intensity, Plos Med, Vol:5, ISSN:1549-1676, Pages:e226-e226