Imperial College London
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ProfessorAzraGhani

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5764a.ghani Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Olivera:2022:10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x,
author = {Olivera, Mesa D and Hogan, A and Watson, O and Charles, G and Hauck, K and Ghani, A and Winskill, P},
doi = {10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x},
journal = {Communications Medicine},
title = {Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x},
volume = {2},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background: Vaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-1924pandemic.  Methods: We modelled the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.Results: Our simulations suggest that the mortality over a 2-year period could be up to 7.6 times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if NPIs are relaxed. Alternatively, high vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place.Conclusions: While vaccination is an individual choice, vaccine hesitant individuals have a substantial impact on the pandemic trajectory, which may challenge current efforts to control COVID-19. In order to prevent such outcomes, addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioural interventions is an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.
AU  - Olivera,Mesa D
AU  - Hogan,A
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Charles,G
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Winskill,P
DO  - 10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 2730-664X
TI  - Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic
T2  - Communications Medicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00075-x
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43856-022-00075-x
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/94022
VL  - 2
ER  -
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