Publications
230 results found
Bosch J, Hawkes AD, 2017, Temporally Explicit and Spatially Resolved Global Offshore Wind Energy Potentials, SDEWES Latin America
Guo Y, Hawkes AD, 2017, Natural Gas Game facing Low-carbon Transition: Scenarios on America Gas Exportation Strategies with Agent-based Modelling, SDEWES Latin America
Jalil-Vega F, Hawkes AD, 2017, Integrated Urban Energy Systems Approach for Assessing the Role of Hydrogen in Heat Decarbonisation Pathways: A UK Case Study, SDEWES Latin America
Sechi S, Giarola S, Lanzini A, et al., 2017, Techno-economic assessment of the effects of biogas rate fluctuations on industrial applications of solid-oxide fuel cells, ESCAPE-27, Publisher: Elsevier, ISSN: 1570-7946
Wastewater treatment is an energy and greenhouse gas intensive process. An important opportunity to reduce both of these quantities is via the use of biogas in co-generation systems. Solid-oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are the generator types studied in this work.The feasibility of the retrofitting of a wastewater treatment facility fitted with a SOFC combined heat and power energy provision system is assessed including effects of uncertainties in biogas availability on cost and energy performance. A two-stage stochastic optimization framework is proposed to provide feedback on the energy co-generation system design.Results quantify standard deviations in the biogas rate beyond which the SOFC capacity factor might drop below 80 % and change the optimal size of the modules to install.Keywords: solid-oxide fuel cells, stochastic optimization, wastewater treatment, biogas.
Hawkes AD, Jalil-Vega F, 2017, Modelling heat supply and infrastructure trade-offs for studying heat decarbonisation pathways in a UK case study, Tenth Annual Meeting of the IAMC
Speirs J, Balcombe P, Johnson E, et al., 2017, A Greener Gas Grid: What Are the Options?, A greener gas grid: what are the options?
Bosch J, Staffell, Hawkes AD, 2017, Temporally-explicit and spatially-resolved global onshore wind energy potentials, Energy, Vol: 131, Pages: 207-217, ISSN: 0360-5442
Several influential energy systems models indicate that renewable energy must provide a significant share of the world's electricity to limit global temperature rises to below 2 °C this century. To better represent the costs and other implications of this shift, it is important that these models realistically characterise the technical and economic potential of renewable energy technologies. Towards this goal, this paper presents the first temporally-explicit Geospatial Information System (GIS) methodology to characterise the global onshore wind energy potential with respect to topographical features, land use and environmental constraints. The approach combines the hourly NASA MERRA-2 global wind speed data set with the spatially-resolved DTU Global Wind Atlas. This yields high resolution global capacity factors for onshore wind, binned into seasonal and diurnal time-slices to capture the important temporal variability. For each country, the wind power generation capacity available for various capacity factor ranges is produced, and made freely available to the community. This data set can be used to assess the economically viable wind energy potential on a global or per-country basis, and as an input to various energy systems models.
Sachs J, Giarola S, Hawkes AD, 2017, Agent-based model for energy-related investment decisions in the residential building sector, International Energy Workshop, Publisher: International Energy Workshop
Giarola S, Budinis S, Sachs J, et al., 2017, Long-term decarbonisation scenarios in the industrial sector, International Energy Workshop
Decarbonisation targets will drive every sector in the energy system to rapidly adopt innovativetechnologies to achieve the dramatic emissions reductions required. Among all, sectors like in-dustry, which currently exhibit a very high energy intensity, are likely to undergo major changes.This manuscript focuses on the appraisal of the effects of a CO2tax in the investment and operationdecisions in industry. Within the larger modelling framework typical of an integrated assessmentmodel, the sector is modelled including the top-energy intensive industries, such as those man-ufacturing pulp and paper, iron and steel, chemicals and petrochemicals, the non-ferrous metalsas well as non-metallic minerals. The simulations are carried out using a novel energy systemsmodel, MUSE, the Modular Universal energy systems Simulation Environment model.
Schmidt O, Hawkes, Gambhir, et al., 2017, The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates, Nature Energy, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2058-7546
Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittentsupply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain.Here, we construct experience curves to project future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that,regardless of technology, capital costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh−1for installed stationary systems andUS$175 ± 25 kWh−1for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment ofmaterial and production costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion wouldbe needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growthprojections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of future cost reduction influence when storage becomes economicallycompetitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further studyby industry, policymakers and academics.
Jalil Vega F, Hawkes AD, 2017, Spatially resolved model for studying decarbonisation pathways for heat supply and infrastructure trade-offs, Applied Energy, Vol: 210, Pages: 1051-1072, ISSN: 1872-9118
Heat decarbonisation is one of the main challenges of energy system decarbonisation. However, existing energy planning models struggle to compare heat decarbonisation approaches because they rarely capture trade-offs between heat supply, end-use technologies and network infrastructure at sufficient spatial resolution. A new optimisation model is presented that addresses this by including trade-offs between gas, electricity, and heat infrastructure, together with related supply and end-use technologies, with high spatial granularity. The model is applied in case studies for the UK. For the case modelled it is shown that electrification of heat is most cost-effective via district level heat pumps that supply heat networks, instead of individual building heat pumps. This is because the cost of reinforcing the electricity grid for installing individual heat pumps does not sufficiently offset heat infrastructure costs. This demonstrates the importance of considering infrastructure trade-offs. When modelling the utilisation of a decarbonised gas, the penetration of heat networks and location of district level heat supply technologies was shown to be dependent on linear heat density and on zone topology. This shows the importance of spatial aspects. Scenario-specific linear heat density thresholds for heat network penetration were identified. For the base case, penetration of high temperature heat networks was over 50% and 60% by 2050 for linear heat densities over 1500 and 2500 kWh/m. For the case when medium heat temperature networks were additionally available, a mix of both networks was observed. Medium temperature heat network penetration was over 20%, 30%, and 40% for linear heat densities of over 1500, 2500, and 3000 kWh/m, while high temperature heat network penetration was over 20% and 30% for linear heat densities of under 2000 and 1500 kWh/m respectively.
Chávez-Rodríguez MF, Dias L, Simoes S, et al., 2017, Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America, Applied Energy, Vol: 201, Pages: 219-239, ISSN: 1872-9118
Natural gas plays an important role in the Southern cone energy system, and is expected to increase in primary supply in the future. This paper presents a new energy systems model for the Southern Cone region of Latin America, covering five regions (Argentina, Bolivia, South and Centre Chile, North Chile, and Brazil) with the aim to explore, up to 2030, the interplay between (i) the expected consumption of natural gas for electricity generation and end-use consumption (i.e. residential, commercial, transport and industry) in each country, (ii) the inter- and intra-country potential role as producer and consumer of natural gas, and (iii) the possible supply network of LNG and natural gas via pipeline and domestic production. It is found that, under a Constrained Investment Scenario, the gross domestic gas production of the Southern Cone from 2012 to 2030 could be 62 Tcf, whereas under an Unconstrained Scenario, it could rise to 75 Tcf. This highlights the economic potential of the unconventional gas resources of Argentina and projections of associated gas from the Campos and Santos basins in Brazil. However, accessing these resources poses financial challenges. Nonetheless, results clearly indicate significant potential for an increase in regional natural gas trade in the Southern Cone.
Vijay A, Fouquet N, Staffell IL, et al., 2017, The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems, Applied Energy, Vol: 201, Pages: 111-123, ISSN: 1872-9118
Decarbonising electricity systems is essential for mitigating climate change. Future systems will likely incorporate higher penetrations of intermittent renewable and inflexible nuclear power. This will significantly impact on system operations, particularly the requirements for flexibility in terms of reserves and the cost of such services. This paper estimates the interrelated changes in wholesale electricity and reserve prices using two novel methods. Firstly, it simulates the short run marginal cost of generation using a unit commitment model with post-processing to achieve realistic prices. It also introduces a new reserve price model, which mimics actual operation by first calculating the day ahead schedules and then letting deviations from schedule drive reserve prices. The UK is used as a case study to compare these models with traditional methods from the literature. The model gives good agreement with and historic prices in 2015. In a 2035 scenario, increased renewables penetration reduces mean electricity prices, and leads to price spikes due to expensive plants being brought online briefly to cope with net load variations. Contrary to views previously held in literature, a renewable intensive scenario does not lead to a higher reserve price than a fossil fuel intensive scenario. Demand response technology is shown to offer sizeable economic benefits when maintaining system balance. More broadly, this framework can be used to evaluate the economics of providing reserve services by aggregating decentralised energy resources such as heat pumps, micro-CHP and electric vehicles.
Gambhir A, Napp T, Hawkes A, et al., 2017, The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO2e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO2 mitigation.
Jalil-Vega F, Hawkes AD, 2017, Spatially-resolved systems modelling for cost-effective heat decarbonisation: A case study, WholeSEM Annual Conference
Allison J, Bell K, Clarke J, et al., 2017, Domestic thermal storage requirements for heat demand flexibility, Sustainable Thermal Energy Management International Conference
Few SPM, Gambhir A, Napp T, et al., 2017, The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets - a global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
There exists considerable uncertainty over both shaleand conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extractionand its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model),to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenariosaimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2°C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1-3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expectedleakage rates, are also considered;andare each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting globaltemperature goals. We concludethat the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globallycoordinatedaction, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.
Napp T, Bernie D, Thomas R, et al., 2017, Exploring the feasibility of low-carbon scenarios using historical energy transitions analysis, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
The scenarios generated by energy systems models provide a picture of the range of possible pathways to a low-carbon future. However, in order to be truly useful, these scenarios should not only be possible but also plausible. In this paper, we have used lessons from historical energy transitions to create a set of diagnostic tests to assess the feasibility of an example 2 °C scenario (generated using the least cost optimization model, TIAM-Grantham). The key assessment criteria included the rate of deployment of low carbon technologies and the rate of transition between primary energy resources. The rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies were found to exceed the maximum historically observed rate of deployment of 20% per annum. When constraints were added to limit the scenario to within historically observed rates of change, the model no longer solved for 2 °C. Under these constraints, the lowest median 2100 temperature change for which a solution was found was about 2.1 °C and at more than double the cumulative cost of the unconstrained scenario. The analysis in this paper highlights the considerable challenge of meeting 2 °C, requiring rates of energy supply technology deployment and rates of declines in fossil fuels which are unprecedented.
Gambhir A, Drouet L, McCollum D, et al., 2017, Assessing the feasibility of global long-term mitigation scenarios, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2OC goal is, when compared to the 2.5-4OC goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2OC goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2OC is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
Budinis S, Mac Dowell N, Krevor S, et al., 2017, Can carbon capture and storage unlock `unburnable carbon'?, 13th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT), Publisher: Elsevier Science BV, Pages: 7504-7515, ISSN: 1876-6102
The concept of ‘unburnable carbon’ emerged in 2011, and stems from the observation that if all known fossil fuel reserves are extracted and converted to CO2(unabated), it would exceed the carbon budget and have a very significant effect on the climate. Therefore, if global warming is to be limited to the COP21 target, some of the known fossil fuel reserves should remain unburnt. Several recent reports have highlighted the scale of the challenge, drawing on scenarios of climate change mitigation and their implications for the projected consumption of fossil fuels. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical and available mitigation opportunity and its contributionto timely and cost-effective decarbonisation of the energy system is widely recognised. However, while some studies have considered the role of CCS in enabling access to more fossil fuels, no detailed analysis on this issue has been undertaken. This paper presents a critical review focusing on the technologies that can be applied to enable access to, or ‘unlock’, fossil fuel reserves in a way that will meet climate targets and mitigate climate change. It also quantifies the impact of CCS in unlocking unburnable carbon in the first and in the second half of the century.
Acri M, Fausone U, Fontell E, et al., 2017, DEMOSOFC PROJECT: RESULTS FROM AN INDUSTRIAL-SIZE BIOGAS-FED SOFC, Pages: 253-254
The EU-funded DEMOSOFC project aims to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of operating a 174 kWe SOFC in a wastewater treatment plant. The fuel for the three SOFC modules (3x58 kWe) is biogas, which is available on-site from the anaerobic digestion of sludge collected from the treated wastewater. A heat-recovery loop allows to recover useful thermal energy from the hot SOFC exhaust gases (90 kWth). The present work is related to the plant layout description and first on-field test of the entire plant.
Clark R, Budinis S, Hawkes A, et al., 2017, Analysis of power production and emission reduction through the use of biogas and carbon capture and storage, Editors: Espuna, Graells, Puigjaner, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 2635-2640
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Balcombe P, Anderson K, Speirs J, et al., 2016, The natural gas supply chain: the importance of methane and carbon dioxide emissions, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, Vol: 5, Pages: 3-20, ISSN: 2168-0485
Natural gas is typically considered to be the cleaner-burning fossil fuel that could play an important role within a restricted carbon budget. While natural gas emits less CO2 when burned than other fossil fuels, its main constituent is methane, which has a much stronger climate forcing impact than CO2 in the short term. Estimates of methane emissions in the natural gas supply chain have been the subject of much controversy, due to uncertainties associated with estimation methods, data quality, and assumptions used. This Perspective presents a comprehensive compilation of estimated CO2 and methane emissions across the global natural gas supply chain, with the aim of providing a balanced insight for academia, industry, and policy makers by summarizing the reported data, locating the areas of major uncertainty, and identifying where further work is needed to reduce or remove this uncertainty. Overall, the range of documented estimates of methane emissions across the supply chain is vast among an aggregation of different geological formations, technologies, plant age, gas composition, and regional regulation, not to mention differences in estimation methods. Estimates of combined methane and CO2 emissions ranged from 2 to 42 g CO2 eq/MJ HHV, while methane-only emissions ranged from 0.2% to 10% of produced methane. The methane emissions at the extraction stage are the most contentious issue, with limited data available but potentially large impacts associated with well completions for unconventional gas, liquids unloading, and also the transmission stage. From the range of literature estimates, a constrained range of emissions was estimated that reflects the most recent and reliable estimates: total supply chain GHG emissions were estimated to be between 3.6 and 42.4 g CO2 eq/MJ HHV, with a central estimate of 10.5. The presence of “super emitters”, a small number of facilities or equipment that cause extremely high emissions, is found across all supply chai
Budinis S, Krevor S, Mac Dowell N, et al., 2016, Can technology unlock unburnable carbon?
In 2015, the Conference Of the Parties in Paris (COP21) reached a universal agreement on climate change with the aim of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. In order to stay below 2 °C, the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released, or ‘carbon budget’ must be less than 1,000 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2. At the current emission rate, this budget will be eroded within the next thirty years. Meeting this target on a global scale is challenging and will require prompt and effective climate change mitigation action.The concept of ‘unburnable carbon’ emerged in 2011, and stems from theobservation that if all known fossil fuel reserves are extracted and converted to CO2 (unabated), it would exceed the carbon budget and have a very significant effect on the climate. Therefore, if global warming is to be limited to the COP21 target, some of the known fossil fuel reserves should remain unburnt.Several recent reports have highlighted the scale of the challenge, drawing on scenarios of climate change mitigation and their implications for the projected consumption of fossil fuels. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical and available mitigation opportunity that is often overlooked. The positive contribution of CCS technology to timely and cost-effective decarbonisation of the energy system is widely recognised. However, while some studies have considered the role of CCS in enabling access to more fossil fuels, no detailed analysis on this issue has been undertaken.This White Paper presents a critical review focusing on the technologies that can be applied to enable access to, or ‘unlock’, fossil fuel reserves in a way that will meet climate targets and mitigate climate change.The paper includes an introduction to the key issues of carbon budgets and fossil fuel reserves, a detailed analysis of the current status of CCS technology, as well as a synthesis of a multi-model comparison study on global climate change mitigation strat
Crow D, Giarola S, Hawkes AD, 2016, Modelling imperfect foresight in investment decisions in the upstream gas industry, Energy Systems Conference
Bosch J, Hawkes AD, 2016, Onshore wind potential and regional supply curves for global energy system models: A GIS approach, Energy Systems Conference
Giarola S, Crow DJG, Hawkes A, 2016, A framework for modelling investment decisions in gas infrastructures, 26th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE), Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Pages: 259-264, ISSN: 1570-7946
Balcombe P, Anderson K, Speirs J, et al., 2015, Methane and CO2 emissions from the natural gas supply chain: an evidence assessment, Publisher: Sustainable Gas Institute
Xie C, Hawkes AD, 2015, Estimation of inter-fuel substitution possibilities in China's transport industry using ridge regression, ENERGY, Vol: 88, Pages: 260-267, ISSN: 0360-5442
Vijay A, Hawkes AD, 2015, Modelling the value of decentralised energy resources in supply-demand balancing for low carbon electricity systems, Microgen IV
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