Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

ProfessorAlanHeavens

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics

Chair in Astrostatistics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2930a.heavens Website

 
 
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Location

 

1018EBlackett LaboratorySouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Heavens:2018:04/047,
author = {Heavens, AF and Sellentin, E},
doi = {04/047},
journal = {Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics},
title = {Objective Bayesian analysis of neutrino masses and hierarchy},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2018/04/047},
volume = {2018},
year = {2018}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Given the precision of current neutrino data, priors still impact noticeably the constraints on neutrino masses and their hierarchy. To avoid our understanding of neutrinos being driven by prior assumptions, we construct a prior that is mathematically minimally informative. Using the constructed uninformative prior, we find that the normal hierarchy is favoured but with inconclusive posterior odds of 5.1:1. Better data is hence needed before the neutrino masses and their hierarchy can be well constrained. We find that the next decade of cosmological data should provide conclusive evidence if the normal hierarchy with negligible minimum mass is correct, and if the uncertainty in the sum of neutrino masses drops below 0.025 eV. On the other hand, if neutrinos obey the inverted hierarchy, achieving strong evidence will be difficult with the same uncertainties. Our uninformative prior was constructed from principles of the Objective Bayesian approach. The prior is called a reference prior and is minimally informative in the specific sense that the information gain after collection of data is maximised. The prior is computed for the combination of neutrino oscillation data and cosmological data and still applies if the data improve.
AU  - Heavens,AF
AU  - Sellentin,E
DO  - 04/047
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 1475-7516
TI  - Objective Bayesian analysis of neutrino masses and hierarchy
T2  - Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2018/04/047
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/58912
VL  - 2018
ER  -
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