Imperial College London

Dr Alexandra Hogan

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Imperial College Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3946a.hogan Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hogan:2016:10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003,
author = {Hogan, AB and Glass, K and Moore, HC and Anderssen, RS},
doi = {10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003},
journal = {Theoretical Population Biology},
pages = {78--85},
title = {Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003},
volume = {110},
year = {2016}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the main cause of lower respiratory tract infections in children. Whilst highly seasonal, RSV dynamics can have either one-year (annual) or two-year (biennial) cycles. Furthermore, some countries show a ‘delayed biennial’ pattern, where the epidemic peak in low incidence years is delayed. We develop a compartmental model for RSV infection, driven by a seasonal forcing function, and conduct parameter space and bifurcation analyses to document parameter ranges that give rise to these different seasonal patterns. The model is sensitive to the birth rate, transmission rate, and seasonality parameters, and can replicate RSV dynamics observed in different countries. The seasonality parameter must exceed a threshold for the model to produce biennial cycles. Intermediate values of the birth rate produce the greatest delay in these biennial cycles, while the model reverts to annual cycles if the duration of immunity is too short. Finally, the existence of period doubling and period halving bifurcations suggests robust model dynamics, in agreement with the known regularity of RSV outbreaks. These findings help explain observed RSV data, such as regular biennial dynamics in Western Australia, and delayed biennial dynamics in Finland. From a public health perspective, our findings provide insight into the drivers of RSV transmission, and a foundation for exploring RSV interventions.
AU - Hogan,AB
AU - Glass,K
AU - Moore,HC
AU - Anderssen,RS
DO - 10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003
EP - 85
PY - 2016///
SN - 1096-0325
SP - 78
TI - Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children
T2 - Theoretical Population Biology
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/44650
VL - 110
ER -