Imperial College London

Dr Alexandra Hogan

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Imperial College Research Fellow



+44 (0)20 7594 3946a.hogan Website




Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Smith, RJ and Hogan, AB and Mercer, GN},
doi = {10.3390/vaccines5020012},
journal = {Vaccines},
title = {Unexpected infection spikes in a model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus vaccination},
url = {},
volume = {5},
year = {2017}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.
AU - Smith,RJ
AU - Hogan,AB
AU - Mercer,GN
DO - 10.3390/vaccines5020012
PY - 2017///
SN - 2076-393X
TI - Unexpected infection spikes in a model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus vaccination
T2 - Vaccines
UR -
UR -
VL - 5
ER -