Imperial College London

Dr Alexandre Koberle

Business School

Honorary Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

a.koberle

 
 
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Location

 

Sherfield BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

53 results found

Gambhir A, Mittal S, Lamboll R, Grant N, bernie D, gohar L, Hawkes A, Koberle A, Rogelj J, lowe Jet al., 2023, Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2041-1723

Understanding how 1.5oC pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 o C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 oC target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO 2/yr for the first five years followingthe pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.

Journal article

Shirov AA, Kolpakov AY, Gambhir A, Koasidis K, Köberle AC, McWilliams B, Nikas Aet al., 2023, Stakeholder-driven scenario analysis of ambitious decarbonisation of the Russian economy, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, Vol: 4

Climate change mitigation entails different meanings for developed and developing countries. As a major emitting, high-income, developing economy that is largely dependant on hydrocarbons, Russia currently sits in the middle of the two groups, needing not only to drastically reduce emissions but also to ensure necessary economic growth to finance decarbonisation. This study explores two mitigation scenarios, one reflecting a cautious and the other a more ambitious decarbonisation pathway for Russia. These scenarios are co-created with a group of 135 national stakeholders, who inform the underlying assumptions based on their perceptions, expectations, and reservations: the more conservative scenario reflects the average of all input, while the ambitious scenario represents the optimistic end of the stakeholder input range. The two scenarios are modelled in CONTO, an input-output system of interconnected macro-structural calculations at the national level, to analyse the interplay between Russia's economy and decarbonisation progress, shedding light on the implications of mitigation for socioeconomic development. We find that, even for a country as dependant on hydrocarbons and under the most ambitious pathway that is still within experts’ realistic reach, Russia can achieve drastic reduction in absolute emissions and reach net-zero closely after 2050, while also achieving positive economic development in the long run. We highlight the need to prioritise a diverse set of mitigation options currently available and relevant to the Russian context, including energy efficiency and intensity improvements, electrification, and nuclear power, as well as to exploit the large potential lying within the Russian ecosystem's carbon sinks.

Journal article

van de Ven D-J, Mittal S, Gambhir A, Lamboll RD, Doukas H, Giarola S, Hawkes A, Koasidis K, Koberle AC, McJeon H, Perdana S, Peters GP, Rogelj J, Sognnaes I, Vielle M, Nikas Aet al., 2023, A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 13, Pages: 570-+, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Koberle AC, Shrimali G, Mittal S, Jindal A, Donovan Cet al., 2022, Financial risks to coal value chain from a cost-conscious shift to renewables in India, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1748-9326

A realignment of the financial sector is necessary to both enable the energy system transformation and manage financial risks implied by a transition to net-zero emissions. These include transition risks stemming from policies that limit or price greenhouse gas emissions. The financial sector has turned to scenarios developed by the research community for information on how transitions may unfold. Emerging methodologies linking transition scenarios to risk assessment are in their early stages but are key to enable financial institutions (FIs) to carry out the task at hand. Commercial FIs are exposed to transition risks primarily through their portfolio holdings and how assets therein may fare in a transition. Understanding this counterparty risk is key for development and interpretation of climate-financial scenarios. FIs will need to consider how the firms in a portfolio—the counterparties—will react to the transition and their capacity to navigate the changes involved. Here we apply a transparent and flexible framework to explore transition risks to corporate firms from low-carbon transition scenarios. We show that considering firms' strategic responses to the changes in their operating environment is an important determinant of the resulting transition risk estimates. We provide an illustrative case study of the coal value chain in India to demonstrate how the framework can be applied to both risk assessment and business strategy setting.

Journal article

Chan S, Bauer S, Betsill MM, Biermann F, Boran I, Bridgewater P, Bulkeley H, Bustamente MMC, Deprez A, Dodds F, Hoffmann M, Hornidge A-K, Hughes A, Imbach P, Ivanova M, Koberle A, Kok MTJ, Lwasa S, Morrison T, Portner H-O, Sari AP, VanDeveer SD, Vollmer D, Widerberg O, Pettorelli Net al., 2022, The global biodiversity framework needs a robust action agenda, NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION, ISSN: 2397-334X

Journal article

Grant N, Gambhir A, Mittal S, Greig C, Koberle ACet al., 2022, Enhancing the realism of decarbonisation scenarios with practicable regional constraints on CO<sub>2</sub> storage capacity, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GREENHOUSE GAS CONTROL, Vol: 120, ISSN: 1750-5836

Journal article

van de Ven D-J, Nikas A, Koasidis K, Forouli A, Cassetti G, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Giarola S, Köberle AC, Koutsellis T, Mittal S, Perdana S, Vielle M, Xexakis G, Doukas H, Gambhir Aet al., 2022, COVID-19 recovery packages can benefit climate targets and clean energy jobs, but scale of impacts and optimal investment portfolios differ among major economies, One Earth, Vol: 5, Pages: 1042-1054, ISSN: 2590-3322

To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear. Here, we use three energy-economic models, combined with a portfolio analysis approach, to find optimal low-carbon technology subsidy combinations in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the United States (US). We find that, although numerical estimates differ given different model structures, results consistently show that a >50% investment in solar photovoltaics is more likely to enable CO2 emissions reduction and green jobs, particularly in the EU and China. Our study illustrates the importance of strategically managing investment portfolios in recovery packages to enable optimal outcomes and foster a post-pandemic green economy.

Journal article

Kulkarni S, Hof A, Ambrósio G, Edelenbosch O, Köberle AC, van Rijn J, van Vuuren Det al., 2022, Investment needs to achieve SDGs: An overview, PLOS Sustainability and Transformation, Vol: 1, Pages: e0000020-e0000020

<jats:p>Estimating the investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is key to mobilising the financial resources to achieve them. Despite an increasing body of research to estimate the capital and operational costs towards achieving various related SDG targets individually and collectively, an overview of the total estimated investment needs at the global scale has not been conducted since the adoption of SDGs in 2015. This study provides such an overview. Estimates for investment needs are found for nine goals: SDG 2 (zero hunger), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 4 (quality education), SGD 6 (clean water and sanitation), SDG7 (access to energy), SDG 9 (infrastructure), SDG 13 (climate action), SDG 14 (life below water), and SDG 15 (life on land). The reviewed studies vary significantly in terms of applied methodology, the assumed targets that need to be achieved, and presented estimates, but overall they indicate significantly higher investment needs to achieve all covered SDGs than previous estimates suggest. For most SDGs, annual investment needs are in the order of hundreds of billion USD annually, and for SDG6 and SDG13 estimates of a trillion or more are reported.</jats:p>

Journal article

Nikas A, Koasidis K, Köberle AC, Kourtesi G, Doukas Het al., 2022, A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 156, ISSN: 1364-0321

Transport is among the sectors highly dependent on fossil fuels, relying almost exclusively on petroleum products. Biofuels have been suggested as a technology contributing to the sector's decarbonisation, especially in sub-sectors where upscaling electrification innovation is challenging. Brazil and Argentina have long been top biofuel producers. This research employs an integrated innovation systems framework to study the historical evolution of the dominant regime in the two countries' transportation and the recent emergence of the biodiesel technological system to provide insights and policy implications for future trajectories and decarbonisation strategies. Our analysis highlights that landscape pressures have provided windows of opportunity for technological change, with Brazil following a more sustainable pathway based on ethanol as an alternative fuel, which allowed the country to later build on cumulative knowledge and lessons transferred from the passenger vehicle sector to freight, while Argentina has locked-into a natural gas-based innovation path. It also discusses that, with the recent expansion of the biodiesel industry, a key challenge for Brazil lies in keeping up the pace and unlocking the potential after reaching the 10% mandate amid concerns over food security and the lack of diversified feedstock, and for Argentina in balancing its biodiesel exports and domestic consumption.

Journal article

Koberle AC, Vandyck T, Guivarch C, Macaluso N, Bosetti V, Gambhir A, Tavoni M, Rogelj Jet al., 2022, The cost of mitigation revisited (Nov, 10.1038/s41558-021-01203-6, 2021), NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 12, Pages: 298-298, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Koberle AC, 2022, Food security in climate mitigation scenarios, NATURE FOOD, Vol: 3, Pages: 98-99

Journal article

van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, Bertram C, Després J, Drouet L, den Elzen M, Fragkos P, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Grant N, Harmsen M, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Köberle AC, Kriegler E, Malik A, Mittal S, Oshiro K, Riahi K, Roelfsema M, van Ruijven B, Schaeffer R, Silva Herran D, Tavoni M, Unlu G, Vandyck T, van Vuuren DPet al., 2022, Author Correction: Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap., Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 2041-1723

Journal article

Köberle AC, Daioglou V, Rochedo P, Lucena AFP, Szklo A, Fujimori S, Brunelle T, Kato E, Kitous A, van Vuuren DP, Schaeffer Ret al., 2022, Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil, Climatic Change, Vol: 170, Pages: 1-31, ISSN: 0165-0009

The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.

Journal article

Gambhir A, George M, McJeon H, Arnell NW, Bernie D, Mittal S, Koberle AC, Lowe J, Rogelj J, Monteith Set al., 2022, Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 12, Pages: 88-+, ISSN: 1758-678X

Journal article

Stevenson S, Collins A, Jennings N, Koberle AC, Laumann F, Laverty AA, Vineis P, Woods J, Gambhir Aet al., 2021, A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context (vol 2, 43, 2021), DISCOVER SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 2

Journal article

Sognnaes I, Gambhir A, van de Ven D-J, Nikas A, Anger-Kraavi A, Bui H, Campagnolo L, Delpiazzo E, Doukas H, Giarola S, Grant N, Hawkes A, Köberle AC, Kolpakov A, Mittal S, Moreno J, Perdana S, Rogelj J, Vielle M, Peters GPet al., 2021, A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 11, Pages: 1055-1062, ISSN: 1758-678X

Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.

Journal article

Koberle AC, Vandyck T, Guivarch C, Macaluso N, Bosetti V, Gambhir A, Tavoni M, Rogelj Jet al., 2021, The cost of mitigation revisited, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 11, Pages: 1035-1045, ISSN: 1758-678X

Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation. We synthesize key factors influencing mitigation cost estimates to guide interpretation of estimates, for example from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and suggest ways to improve the underlying models. We propose alternatives for the scenario design framework, the framing of mitigation costs and the methods used to derive them, to better inform public debate and policy.

Journal article

van Soest HL, Aleluia Reis L, Baptista LB, Bertram C, Després J, Drouet L, den Elzen M, Fragkos P, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Grant N, Harmsen M, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Köberle AC, Kriegler E, Malik A, Mittal S, Oshiro K, Riahi K, Roelfsema M, van Ruijven B, Schaeffer R, Silva Herran D, Tavoni M, Unlu G, Vandyck T, van Vuuren DPet al., 2021, Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2041-1723

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Journal article

Stevenson S, Collins A, Jennings N, Koberle A, Laumann F, Laverty A, Vineis P, Woods J, Gambhir Aet al., 2021, A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context, Discover Sustainability, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2662-9984

In 2015 the United Nations drafted the Paris Agreement and established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for all nations. A question of increasing relevance is the extent to which the pursuit of climate action (SDG 13) interacts both positively and negatively with other SDGs. We tackle this question through a two-pronged approach: a novel, automated keyword search to identify linkages between SDGs and UK climate-relevant policies; and a detailed expert survey to evaluate these linkages through specific examples. We consider a particular subset of SDGs relating to health, economic growth, affordable and clean energy and sustainable cities and communities. Overall, we find that of the 89 UK climate-relevant policies assessed, most are particularly interlinked with the delivery of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and that certain UK policies, like the Industrial Strategy and 25-Year Environment Plan, interlink with a wide range of SDGs. Focusing on these climate-relevant policies is therefore likely to deliver a wide range of synergies across SDGs 3 (Good Health and Well-being), 7, 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure), 11, 14 (Life Below Water) and 15 (Life on Land). The expert survey demonstrates that in addition to the range of mostly synergistic interlinkages identified in the keyword search, there are also important potential trade-offs to consider. Our analysis provides an important new toolkit for the research and policy communities to consider interactions between SDGs, which can be employed across a range of national and international contexts.

Journal article

Giarola S, Mittal S, Vielle M, Perdana S, Campagnolo L, Delpiazzo E, Bui H, Anger Kraavi A, Kolpakov A, Sognnaes I, Peters G, Hawkes A, Koberle A, Grant N, Gambhir A, Nikas A, Doukas H, Moreno J, van de Ven D-Jet al., 2021, Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 783, ISSN: 0048-9697

Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.This paper proposes a framework for a harmonisation methodology with the definition of indispensable steps and recommendations to overcome stumbling blocks in order to reduce the variance of the outcomes which depends on controllable modelling assumptions. The harmonisation approach of the PARIS REINFORCE project is presented here to layout such a framework. A decomposition analysis of the harmonisation process is shown through 6 integrated assessment models (GCAM, ICES-XPS, MUSE, E3ME, GEMINI-E3, and TIAM). Results prove the potentials of the proposed framework to reduce the model variance and present a powerful diagnostic tool to feedback on the quality of the harmonisation itself.

Journal article

Nikas A, Elia A, Boitier B, Koasidis K, Doukas H, Cassetti G, Anger-Kraavi A, Bui H, Campagnolo L, De Miglio R, Delpiazzo E, Fougeyrollas A, Gambhir A, Gargiulo M, Giarola S, Grant N, Hawkes A, Herbst A, Köberle AC, Kolpakov A, Le Mouël P, McWilliams B, Mittal S, Moreno J, Neuner F, Perdana S, Peters GP, Plötz P, Rogelj J, Sognnæs I, Van de Ven D-J, Vielle M, Zachmann G, Zagamé P, Chiodi Aet al., 2021, Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison., Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 793, Pages: 148549-148549, ISSN: 0048-9697

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.

Journal article

Harmsen M, Kriegler E, van Vuuren DP, van der Wijst K-I, Luderer G, Cui R, Dessens O, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Morris J, Fosse F, Fragkiadakis D, Fragkiadakis K, Fragkos P, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Gernaat DEHJ, Guivarch C, Iyer GC, Karkatsoulis P, Keppo I, Keramidas K, Köberle A, Kolp P, Krey V, Krüger C, Leblanc F, Mittal S, Paltsev SV, Rochedo P, van Ruijven B, Sands RD, Sano F, Strefler J, Vasquez Arroyo E, Wada K, Zakeri Bet al., 2021, Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1748-9326

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow to compare these models can help to describe and explain differences in model projections. This also increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler et al., 2015). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index (RAI), emission reduction type index (ERT), inertia timescale (IT), fossil fuel reduction (FFR), transformation index (TI) and cost per abatement value (CAV). We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, including both older version as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and allows for comparison of model versions in time. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide an useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend across the different models.

Journal article

Köberle AC, Daioglou V, Rochedo P, Lucena AFP, Szklo A, Fujimori S, Brunelle T, Kato E, Kitous A, Vuuren DPV, Schaeffer Ret al., 2021, Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.</jats:p>

Working paper

Pereira L, Kuiper JJ, Selomane O, Aguiar APD, Asrar GR, Bennett EM, Biggs R, Calvin K, Hedden S, Hsu A, Jabbour J, King N, Köberle AC, Lucas P, Nel J, Norström AV, Peterson G, Sitas N, Trisos C, van Vuuren DP, Vervoort J, Ward Jet al., 2021, Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments, Ecosystems and People, Vol: 17, Pages: 191-204, ISSN: 2639-5908

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.

Journal article

Fragkos P, Laura van Soest H, Schaeffer R, Reedman L, Köberle AC, Macaluso N, Evangelopoulou S, De Vita A, Sha F, Qimin C, Kejun J, Mathur R, Shekhar S, Dewi RG, Diego SH, Oshiro K, Fujimori S, Park C, Safonov G, Iyer Get al., 2021, Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States, Energy, Vol: 216, Pages: 119385-119385, ISSN: 0360-5442

Journal article

Koberle A, Ostrovnaya A, Ganguly G, 2021, A guide to building climate-financial scenarios for financial institutions, A guide to building climate-financial scenarios for financial institutions, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 35

This briefing considers how the financial sector can manage the risks associated with moving to a zero-carbon future. The paper outlines why it is essential for financial institutions to understand so-called climate transition scenarios, which explore this journey to a zero-carbon future. The paper also sets out a framework that financial institutions can use to construct, or understand and use, climate transition scenarios in the context of financial sector risk management.

Report

Daioglou V, Muratori M, Lamers P, Fujimori S, Kitous A, Köberle AC, Bauer N, Junginger M, Kato E, Leblanc F, Mima S, Wise M, van Vuuren DPet al., 2020, Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade, Climatic Change, Vol: 163, Pages: 1639-1658, ISSN: 0165-0009

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

Journal article

Roelfsema M, van Soest HL, Harmsen M, van Vuuren DP, Bertram C, den Elzen M, Höhne N, Iacobuta G, Krey V, Kriegler E, Luderer G, Riahi K, Ueckerdt F, Després J, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Frank S, Fricko O, Gidden M, Humpenöder F, Huppmann D, Fujimori S, Fragkiadakis K, Gi K, Keramidas K, Köberle AC, Aleluia Reis L, Rochedo P, Schaeffer R, Oshiro K, Vrontisi Z, Chen W, Iyer GC, Edmonds J, Kannavou M, Jiang K, Mathur R, Safonov G, Vishwanathan SSet al., 2020, Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement, Nature Communications, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.

Journal article

Cormack C, Donovan C, Koberle A, Ostrovnaya Aet al., 2020, Estimating financial risks from the energy transition: potential impacts from decarbonization in the European power sector, JOURNAL OF ENERGY MARKETS, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-49, ISSN: 1756-3607

Journal article

Köberle AC, Rochedo PRR, Lucena AFP, Szklo A, Schaeffer Ret al., 2020, Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system, Climatic Change, Vol: 162, Pages: 1823-1842, ISSN: 0165-0009

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission scenarios for Brazil for the 2010–2050 period that cost-effectively raise ambition to levels consistent with PA targets. Our results reinforce the fundamental role of the agriculture, forest, and land use (AFOLU) sectors and explore inter-sectoral linkages to power generation and transportation. We identify transportation as a prime candidate for decarbonization, leveraging Brazil’s already low-carbon electricity production and its high bioenergy production. Results indicate the most important mitigation measures are electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet for passenger transportation, biodiesel and biokerosene production via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from lignocellulosic feedstock, and intensification of agricultural production. The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as netzero deforestation make significant contributions. We identify opportunities for Brazil, but synergies and trade-offs across sectors should be minded when designing climate policies.

Journal article

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