12 results found
Lucena AFP, Hejazi M, Vasquez-Arroyo E, et al., 2018, Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil, Energy, Vol: 164, Pages: 1161-1177, ISSN: 0360-5442
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.
, 2018, Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil, Energy Policy, Vol: 122, Pages: 689-700, ISSN: 0301-4215
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Cost minimization is arguably the most important criterion governing decisions about energy sector infrastructure construction. Usually, a winning project is picked among similar alternatives based on lowest levelized cost of energy, because, ceteris paribus, economies of scale drive down the unit cost of energy delivered. As such, megaprojects – here defined as costing more than a benchmark US$ 1 billion – are perceived as more competitive than smaller-scale options. However, megaprojects are prone to construction cost overruns and delays that, if included ex ante, may change the optimality of decision for a given project. We hypothesize that optimistic assumptions on techno-economic performance of megaprojects favor their inclusion in the solution of integrated assessment models (IAMs), preventing higher shares of non-hydro renewables, energy efficiency and other low-carbon options. To test this hypothesis, we ran the COPPE-MSB energy system cost-optimization model for infrastructure expansion. We estimate a factor (named Z factor, for zillions) to determine cost differences both within Brazil and vis-à-vis international parity and adjust the model's parameters for CAPEX and construction times of projects qualifying as megaprojects. Results show decreased coal and increased wind power generation, and a reduction in the number of new refineries leading to higher imports of diesel and gasoline.
Rochedo PRR, Soares-Filho B, Schaeffer R, et al., 2018, The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 8, Pages: 695-+, ISSN: 1758-678X
Oshiro K, 2018, Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs, Energy Policy, Vol: 118, Pages: 462-473, ISSN: 0301-4215
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Since the official submission of the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement framework, a set of studies attempted to assess the energy and economic impacts on NDCs by using large-scale energy-economy models, both at the national and global level. This paper presents a novel approach to quantify policy impacts of NDCs, by combining a set of technology-rich country-level models for major economies with an economy-wide global CGE model. The methodology enhances the credibility of global model-based scenarios, by complementing it with detailed representation of country-level policy priorities and structural heterogeneities, captured by national-level models. It also improves the consistency between national short-to-medium term policy plans with global long-term climate objectives. Results indicate that energy efficiency improvements and increased penetration of RES are the main contributors to emission reduction induced by NDCs. The role of emission reduction options differentiates by country, depending on national socio-economic objectives, energy resource endowment and climate policy ambition. The Paris pledges are found to be consistent with robust economic growth both in developed and in emerging economies. NDCs result in a more labour-intensive economy driven by RES expansion, while major clean energy manufacturers (EU, China) have the potential to improve their balance of trade.
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle A, Lucena AFP, et al., 2018, Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil, CLIMATIC CHANGE, Vol: 148, Pages: 293-309, ISSN: 0165-0009
da Silveira Bezerra PB, Callegari CL, Ribas A, et al., 2017, The power of light: socio-economic and environmental implications of a rural electrification program in Brazil, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1748-9326
, 2017, The role of LNG and unconventional gas in the future natural gas markets of Argentina and Chile, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, Vol: 45, Pages: 584-598, ISSN: 1875-5100
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. The natural gas exports from Argentina to Chile until the last decade represented a milestone for the energy integration aspirations in South America. Since the interruptions of Argentinian gas flows to Chile in 2004, this regional gas trade has been substituted by LNG imports. In 2016, Chile even started delivering gas to Argentina sourced by its LNG regasification terminals. However, tapping into unconventional gas resources in Argentina can reshape the supply-demand balance for these two countries. This study analysed the interplay between LNG and unconventional gas under two scenarios of investments in upstream supported by an integrated modelling tool for gas and power. In the Low-Investment Scenario in upstream, LNG imports increase significantly making it necessary to double the regasification capacity of Argentina by 2030. In the High-Investment scenario, where unconventional gas represents nearly half of natural gas domestic production in 2030, Argentina will rely on LNG only to meet winter demands. For Chile, in both scenarios tested, LNG remains relevant, requiring the construction of new regasification terminals. Still, developing unconventional resources as in the High-Investment scenario allows Argentina to re-take exports to Chile in the next decade, mainly in the summer season, providing another opportunity for discussions on energy integration in the region.
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle AC, Soria R, et al., 2016, Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story, ENERGY, Vol: 115, Pages: 1424-1435, ISSN: 0360-5442
, 2016, Biojet fuel in Brazil: Technological routes and feedstock availability, Pages: 162-173
© 2016 ETA-Florence Renewable Energies. This study aims to evaluate the technical and economic potential for biojet production in Brazil, by identifying the cost-effectiveness of different technological routes and assessing the competitive opportunities for Brazilian growing market of biojet fuel. To this end, a series of indicators have been developed. Preliminary results reveal Brazil may play an important role in the biojet market worldwide. Among different feedstocks, agricultural and forestry wastes present significant potential of production; however, in spite of its low-cost, the technological routes based on residues have yet to become cost-competitive with conventional fossil fuel production. Additionally, there is a large technical potential of biojet production from oleaginous crops. However, this feedstock is already applied in biodiesel production, the environmental gains are limited due to the high dependence on fossil fuel resources both at the agricultural and industrial stages and feedstocks are also expensive. The LCA performed in this study revealed important life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption reductions, as all the alternative fuels modeled revealed reductions of over 70%. However, factors related to infrastructure, taxation and productivity may constrain the findings of this study.
Koberle AC, Gernaat DEHJ, van Vuuren DP, 2015, Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation, ENERGY, Vol: 89, Pages: 739-756, ISSN: 0360-5442
Martinez SH, Koberle A, Rochedo P, et al., 2015, Possible energy futures for Brazil and Latin America in conservative and stringent mitigation pathways up to 2050, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, Vol: 98, Pages: 186-210, ISSN: 0040-1625
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle A, Lucena AFP, et al., 2015, OVERLOOKED IMPACTS OF POWER GENERATION: THE LIFE CYCLE SIDE OF THE STORY, 2nd International Conference on Energy and Environment - Bringing together Engineering and Economics (ICEE), Publisher: UNIV MINHO, Pages: 467-475, ISSN: 2183-3982
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