16 results found
Krey V, Guo F, Kolp P, et al., 2019, Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models, Energy, Vol: 172, Pages: 1254-1267, ISSN: 0360-5442
© 2019 The Authors Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models, which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, making techno-economic parameters available in the future, together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions.
Koberle AC, Portugal-Pereira J, Cunha B, et al., 2019, Brazilian ethanol expansion subject to limitations, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 9, Pages: 209-210, ISSN: 1758-678X
van den Berg NJ, van Soest HL, Hof AF, et al., 2019, Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways, Climatic Change, ISSN: 0165-0009
© 2019, The Author(s). The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-shari
Lap T, Benders R, Köberle A, et al., 2019, Pathways for a Brazilian biobased economy: towards optimal utilization of biomass, Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, ISSN: 1932-104X
© 2019 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Biomass is responsible for 25% of the primary energy supply in Brazil. However, future biomass demand will be influenced by many factors. This study evaluates potential pathways for the utilization of biomass in Brazil until 2050, while considering novel biobased sectors (renewable jet fuel and biochemicals), resource competition, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whereas other least-cost optimization models assess biobased options to meet energy and chemicals demand in Brazil to a limited extent, this study provides a detailed breakdown of biomass feedstock, including an extensive portfolio of biomass conversion technologies. A least-cost optimization model is used to assess the demand for energy and chemicals, and the competition between biomass and other climate-mitigation measures such as renewable power generation technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy efficiency. Varied over the three scenarios, 86–96% of the sustainable biomass supply potential is used. Under more stringent mitigation targets, novel biomass conversion technologies start to play an important role: Biobased electricity production with CCS, jet fuel production from lignocellulosic biomass, and chemicals are partly produced from ethanol and bio-naphtha. The modeling framework provides a transparent view of which type of biomass can be used for which specific purpose. It is therefore an interesting tool for future research, for example to examine the dynamic interaction with demand for land. © 2019 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Lucena AFP, Hejazi M, Vasquez-Arroyo E, et al., 2018, Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil, Energy, Vol: 164, Pages: 1161-1177, ISSN: 0360-5442
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd This paper performs a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways. The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models indicate that a global high emissions trajectory scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than a mitigation scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impacts, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When analyzing investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.
Köberle AC, Garaffa R, Cunha BSL, et al., 2018, Are conventional energy megaprojects competitive? Suboptimal decisions related to cost overruns in Brazil, Energy Policy, Vol: 122, Pages: 689-700, ISSN: 0301-4215
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Cost minimization is arguably the most important criterion governing decisions about energy sector infrastructure construction. Usually, a winning project is picked among similar alternatives based on lowest levelized cost of energy, because, ceteris paribus, economies of scale drive down the unit cost of energy delivered. As such, megaprojects – here defined as costing more than a benchmark US$ 1 billion – are perceived as more competitive than smaller-scale options. However, megaprojects are prone to construction cost overruns and delays that, if included ex ante, may change the optimality of decision for a given project. We hypothesize that optimistic assumptions on techno-economic performance of megaprojects favor their inclusion in the solution of integrated assessment models (IAMs), preventing higher shares of non-hydro renewables, energy efficiency and other low-carbon options. To test this hypothesis, we ran the COPPE-MSB energy system cost-optimization model for infrastructure expansion. We estimate a factor (named Z factor, for zillions) to determine cost differences both within Brazil and vis-à-vis international parity and adjust the model's parameters for CAPEX and construction times of projects qualifying as megaprojects. Results show decreased coal and increased wind power generation, and a reduction in the number of new refineries leading to higher imports of diesel and gasoline.
Rochedo PRR, Soares-Filho B, Schaeffer R, et al., 2018, The threat of political bargaining to climate mitigation in Brazil, NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 8, Pages: 695-+, ISSN: 1758-678X
Fragkos P, Fragkiadakis K, Paroussos L, et al., 2018, Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs, Energy Policy, Vol: 118, Pages: 462-473, ISSN: 0301-4215
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Since the official submission of the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement framework, a set of studies attempted to assess the energy and economic impacts on NDCs by using large-scale energy-economy models, both at the national and global level. This paper presents a novel approach to quantify policy impacts of NDCs, by combining a set of technology-rich country-level models for major economies with an economy-wide global CGE model. The methodology enhances the credibility of global model-based scenarios, by complementing it with detailed representation of country-level policy priorities and structural heterogeneities, captured by national-level models. It also improves the consistency between national short-to-medium term policy plans with global long-term climate objectives. Results indicate that energy efficiency improvements and increased penetration of RES are the main contributors to emission reduction induced by NDCs. The role of emission reduction options differentiates by country, depending on national socio-economic objectives, energy resource endowment and climate policy ambition. The Paris pledges are found to be consistent with robust economic growth both in developed and in emerging economies. NDCs result in a more labour-intensive economy driven by RES expansion, while major clean energy manufacturers (EU, China) have the potential to improve their balance of trade.
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle A, Lucena AFP, et al., 2018, Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil, CLIMATIC CHANGE, Vol: 148, Pages: 293-309, ISSN: 0165-0009
da Silveira Bezerra PB, Callegari CL, Ribas A, et al., 2017, The power of light: socio-economic and environmental implications of a rural electrification program in Brazil, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1748-9326
Chávez-Rodríguez M, Varela D, Rodrigues F, et al., 2017, The role of LNG and unconventional gas in the future natural gas markets of Argentina and Chile, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, Vol: 45, Pages: 584-598, ISSN: 1875-5100
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. The natural gas exports from Argentina to Chile until the last decade represented a milestone for the energy integration aspirations in South America. Since the interruptions of Argentinian gas flows to Chile in 2004, this regional gas trade has been substituted by LNG imports. In 2016, Chile even started delivering gas to Argentina sourced by its LNG regasification terminals. However, tapping into unconventional gas resources in Argentina can reshape the supply-demand balance for these two countries. This study analysed the interplay between LNG and unconventional gas under two scenarios of investments in upstream supported by an integrated modelling tool for gas and power. In the Low-Investment Scenario in upstream, LNG imports increase significantly making it necessary to double the regasification capacity of Argentina by 2030. In the High-Investment scenario, where unconventional gas represents nearly half of natural gas domestic production in 2030, Argentina will rely on LNG only to meet winter demands. For Chile, in both scenarios tested, LNG remains relevant, requiring the construction of new regasification terminals. Still, developing unconventional resources as in the High-Investment scenario allows Argentina to re-take exports to Chile in the next decade, mainly in the summer season, providing another opportunity for discussions on energy integration in the region.
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle AC, Soria R, et al., 2016, Overlooked impacts of electricity expansion optimisation modelling: The life cycle side of the story, ENERGY, Vol: 115, Pages: 1424-1435, ISSN: 0360-5442
Carvalho F, Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle A, et al., 2016, Biojet fuel in Brazil: Technological routes and feedstock availability, Pages: 162-173
© 2016 ETA-Florence Renewable Energies. This study aims to evaluate the technical and economic potential for biojet production in Brazil, by identifying the cost-effectiveness of different technological routes and assessing the competitive opportunities for Brazilian growing market of biojet fuel. To this end, a series of indicators have been developed. Preliminary results reveal Brazil may play an important role in the biojet market worldwide. Among different feedstocks, agricultural and forestry wastes present significant potential of production; however, in spite of its low-cost, the technological routes based on residues have yet to become cost-competitive with conventional fossil fuel production. Additionally, there is a large technical potential of biojet production from oleaginous crops. However, this feedstock is already applied in biodiesel production, the environmental gains are limited due to the high dependence on fossil fuel resources both at the agricultural and industrial stages and feedstocks are also expensive. The LCA performed in this study revealed important life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel consumption reductions, as all the alternative fuels modeled revealed reductions of over 70%. However, factors related to infrastructure, taxation and productivity may constrain the findings of this study.
Koberle AC, Gernaat DEHJ, van Vuuren DP, 2015, Assessing current and future techno-economic potential of concentrated solar power and photovoltaic electricity generation, ENERGY, Vol: 89, Pages: 739-756, ISSN: 0360-5442
Martinez SH, Koberle A, Rochedo P, et al., 2015, Possible energy futures for Brazil and Latin America in conservative and stringent mitigation pathways up to 2050, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, Vol: 98, Pages: 186-210, ISSN: 0040-1625
Portugal-Pereira J, Koberle A, Lucena AFP, et al., 2015, OVERLOOKED IMPACTS OF POWER GENERATION: THE LIFE CYCLE SIDE OF THE STORY, 2nd International Conference on Energy and Environment - Bringing together Engineering and Economics (ICEE), Publisher: UNIV MINHO, Pages: 467-475, ISSN: 2183-3982
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