Publications
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Ebrahimi H, Aryan Z, Moghaddam SS, et al., 2021, Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 1030-1049, ISSN: 2213-2600
BackgroundPrevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010–19 period.FindingsGlobally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised i
Hayhoe B, 2021, Public preferences for delayed or immediate antibiotic prescriptions in UK primary care: a choice experiment, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1549-1277
Delayed (or ‘back-up’) antibiotic prescription, where the patient is given a prescription but advised todelay initiating antibiotics, has been shown to be effective in reducing antibiotic use in primary care.However, this strategy is not widely used in the UK. This study aimed to identify factors influencingpreferences among the UK public for delayed prescription, and understand their relative importance,to help increase appropriate use of this prescribing option.Methods and FindingsWe conducted an online choice experiment in two UK general population samples: adults, and parentsof children under 18 years. Respondents were presented with twelve scenarios in which they, or theirchild, might need antibiotics for a respiratory tract infection, and asked to choose either an immediateor a delayed prescription. Scenarios were described by seven attributes. Data were collected betweenNovember 2018 and February 2019. Respondent preferences were modelled using mixed-effectslogistic regression.The survey was completed by 802 adults and 801 parents (75% of those who opened the survey). Thesamples reflected the UK population in age, sex, ethnicity and country of residence. The mostimportant determinant of respondent choice was symptom severity, especially for cough-relatedsymptoms. In the adult sample the probability of choosing delayed prescription was 0.53 (95% CI 0.50-0.56, p<.001) for a chesty cough and runny nose, compared to 0.30 (0.28-0.33, p<.001) for a chestycough with fever, 0.47 (0.44-0.50, p<.001) for sore throat with swollen glands and 0.37 (0.34-0.39,p<.001) for sore throat, swollen glands and fever. Respondents were less likely to choose delayedprescription with increasing duration of illness (odds ratio 0.94 (0.92-0.96, p<0.001)). Probabilities ofchoosing delayed prescription were similar for parents considering treatment for a child (44% ofchoices vs. 42% for adults, p=0.04). However, parents differed from the adult sample in showing
Webb J, Peerbux S, Ang A, et al., 2021, Long-term effectiveness of a digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation: a randomized controlled trial, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Introduction: The present study evaluated the long-term effectiveness of Quit Genius (QG), an extended digital smoking cessation intervention.Methods: Participants were adult smokers (N=556) recruited between January and November of 2019 via social media and referrals from primary care practices who were given nicotine replacement therapy and randomly assigned to Quit Genius (QG) (n=277), a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) based digital intervention or Very Brief Advice (VBA) (n=279), a face-to-face control intervention. Primary analyses (N=530), by intention-to-treat, compared QG and VBA on biochemically verified continuous 7-day abstinence at 4, 26, and 52 weeks post-quit date. Secondary outcomes included sustained abstinence, quit attempts, self-efficacy and mental well-being.Results: Seven-day point prevalence abstinence from weeks 4 through 52 ranged from 27% to nearly 45% among those who received QG, and from 13% to 29% for those in VBA. Continuous 7-day abstinence at 26 and 52 weeks occurred in 27.2% and 22.6% of QG participants, respectively, relative to 16.6% and 13.2% of VBA participants; QG participants were more likely to remain abstinent than those in VBA (Relative Risk [RR]= 1.71, 95% CI 1.17-2.50; p=0.005).Conclusions: This study provides evidence for the long-term effectiveness of an extended digital therapeutic intervention.Implications The long-term effectiveness of digital smoking cessation interventions has not been well-studied. This study established the long-term effectiveness of an extended CBT-based intervention; results may inform implementation of scalable, cost-effective approaches to smoking cessation in the health system.
Neves AL, Li E, Serafini A, et al., 2021, Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the adoption of virtual care in general practice in 20 countries (inSIGHT): rationale and study protocol, Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol: 10, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1438-8871
Background: In recent decades, virtual care has emerged as a promising option to support primary care delivery. However, despite the potential, adoption rates remained low. With the outbreak of COVID-19, it has suddenly been pushed to the forefront of care delivery. As we progress into the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need and opportunity to review the impact remote care had in primary care settings and reassess its potential future role. This study aims to explore the perspectives of General Practitioners (GPs) / Family Doctors on a.) use of virtual care during the COVID-19 pandemic; b.) perceived impact on quality and safety of care; c.) essential factors for high-quality and sustainable use of virtual care in the future. Methods: Online cross-sectional questionnaire of GPs, distributed across 20 countries. The survey was hosted in Qualtrics and distributed using email, social media, and the researchers’ personal contact networks. General Practitioners were eligible for the survey if they were working mainly in primary care during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive statistical analysis will be performed for quantitative variables, and relationships between the use of virtual care and perceptions on impact on quality and safety of care, and participants’ characteristics, may be explored. Qualitative data (free-text responses) will be analysed using framework analysis. Results: Data collection took place from June to September 2020. As of this manuscript’s submission, a total of 1,605 GP respondents participated in the questionnaire. Further data analysis is currently ongoing. Discussion: The study will provide a comprehensive overview of the availability of virtual care technologies, perceived impact on quality and safety of care and essential factors for high-quality future use. In addition, a description of the under
Salman D, Beaney T, Robb C, et al., 2021, The impact of social restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic on the physical activity levels of adults aged 50-92 years: a baseline survey of the CHARIOT COVID-19 Rapid Response prospective cohort study, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives: Physical inactivity is more common in older adults, is associated with social isolation and loneliness, and contributes to increased morbidity and mortality. We examined the effect of social restrictions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK (lockdown), on physical activity (PA) levels of older adults, and the social predictors of any change.Design: Baseline analysis of a survey-based prospective cohort study Setting: Adults enrolled in the Cognitive Health in Ageing Register for Investigational and Observational Trials (CHARIOT) cohort from General Practitioner (GP) practices in North West London were invited to participate from April to July 2020.Participants: 6,219 cognitively healthy adults aged 50 to 92 years completed the survey.Main outcome measures: Self-reported PA before and after the introduction of lockdown, as measured by Metabolic Equivalent of Task (MET) minutes. Associations of PA with demographic, lifestyle and social factors, mood and frailty.Results: Mean PA was significantly lower following the introduction of lockdown, from 3,519 MET minutes/week to 3,185 MET minutes/week (p<0.001). After adjustment for confounders and pre-lockdown PA, lower levels of PA after the introduction of lockdown were found in those who were over 85 years old (640 [95% CI: 246 to 1034] MET minutes/week less); were divorced or single (240 [95% CI: 120 to 360] MET minutes/week less); living alone (277 [95% CI: 152 to 402] MET minutes/week less); reported feeling lonely often (306 [95% CI: 60 to 552] MET minutes/week less); and showed symptoms of depression (1007 [95% CI: 1401 to 612] MET minutes/week less) compared to those aged 50-64 years, married, co-habiting, and not reporting loneliness or depression, respectively. Conclusions and Implications: Markers of social isolation, loneliness and depression were associated with lower PA following the introduction of lockdown in the UK. Targeted interventions to increase PA in these groups should be consid
Shemtob L, Ferris M, Asanati K, et al., 2021, Vaccinating healthcare workers against covid-19, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 374, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 0959-535X
Majeed A, 2021, Longitudinal data on covid-19 immunity could be collected from medical records, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 374, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 0959-535X
Aliabadi S, Anyanwu P, Beech E, et al., 2021, Effect of antibiotic stewardship interventions in primary care on antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England (2013-18): a quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1473-3099
BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a major global health concern, driven by overuse of antibiotics. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a national antimicrobial stewardship intervention, the National Health Service (NHS) England Quality Premium implemented in 2015-16, on broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing and Escherichia coli bacteraemia resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics in England. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, we used longitudinal data on bacteraemia for patients registered with a general practitioner in the English National Health Service and patients with E coli bacteraemia notified to the national mandatory surveillance programme between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2018. We linked these data to data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing of E coli from Public Health England's Second-Generation Surveillance System. We did an ecological analysis using interrupted time-series analyses and generalised estimating equations to estimate the change in broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribing over time and the change in the proportion of E coli bacteraemia cases for which the causative bacteria were resistant to each antibiotic individually or to at least one of five broad-spectrum antibiotics (co-amoxiclav, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, ofloxacin), after implementation of the NHS England Quality Premium intervention in April, 2015. FINDINGS: Before implementation of the Quality Premium, the rate of antibiotic prescribing for all five broad-spectrum antibiotics was increasing at rate of 0·2% per month (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·002 [95% CI 1·000-1·004], p=0·046). After implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in total broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing rate was observed (IRR 0·867 [95% CI 0·837-0·898], p<0·0001). This effect was sustained until the end of the study period; a 57% reduction in rate of antibiotic pr
Ngaosuwan K, Johnston DG, Godsland IF, et al., 2021, Mortality risk in patients with adrenal insufficiency using prednisolone or hydrocortisone: a retrospective cohort study, Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 106, Pages: 2242-2251, ISSN: 0021-972X
CONTEXT: Prednisolone has been recommended rather than hydrocortisone for glucocorticoid replacement in adrenal insufficiency due its longer duration of action and lower cost. OBJECTIVE: To determine mortality rates with prednisolone versus hydrocortisone. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: A UK primary care database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, treated with either prednisolone or hydrocortisone, and controls individually matched for age, sex, period and place of follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Nil. OUTCOMES: Mortality relative to individually matched controls. RESULTS: As expected, mortality in adrenal insufficiency irrespective of cause was increased, based on 5478 patients (4228 on hydrocortisone; 1250 on prednisolone) and 54314 controls (41934 and 12380, respectively). Overall, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was similar with the two treatments (prednisolone, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.54-2.01] vs. hydrocortisone 1.69 [1.57-1.82]; p=0.65). This was also the case for secondary adrenal insufficiency. In primary disease (1405 on hydrocortisone vs. 137 on prednisolone:13965 and 1347 controls, respectively), prednisolone-users were older, more likely to have another autoimmune disease and malignancy, and less likely to have mineralocorticoid replacement. Nevertheless, after adjustment, the HR for prednisolone-treated patients remained higher than for those taking hydrocortisone (2.92 [2.19-3.91] vs. 1.90 [1.66-2.16]; p=0.0020). CONCLUSIONS: In primary but not in secondary adrenal insufficiency mortality was higher with prednisolone. The study was large, but the number of prednisolone-treated patients was small, and they had greater risk factors. Nonetheless the increased mortality associated with prednisolone persisted despite statistical adjustment. Further evidence is needed regarding the long-term safety of prednisolone as routine replacement.
Nugawela MD, Gurudas S, Prevost AT, et al., 2021, Ethnic disparities in the development of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in a uk multi-ethnic population with diabetes: an observational cohort study, Journal of Personalized Medicine, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2075-4426
There is little data on ethnic differences in incidence of DR and sight threatening DR (STDR) in the United Kingdom. We aimed to determine ethnic differences in the development of DR and STDR and to identify risk factors of DR and STDR in people with incident or prevalent type II diabetes (T2DM). We used electronic primary care medical records of people registered with 134 general practices in East London during the period from January 2007–January 2017. There were 58,216 people with T2DM eligible to be included in the study. Among people with newly diagnosed T2DM, Indian, Pakistani and African ethnic groups showed an increased risk of DR with Africans having highest risk of STDR compared to White ethnic groups (HR: 1.36 95% CI 1.02–1.83). Among those with prevalent T2DM, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Caribbean ethnic groups showed increased risk of DR and STDR with Indian having the highest risk of any DR (HR: 1.24 95% CI 1.16–1.32) and STDR (HR: 1.38 95% CI 1.17–1.63) compared with Whites after adjusting for all covariates considered. It is important to optimise prevention, screening and treatment options in these ethnic minority groups to avoid health inequalities in diabetes eye care.
Tilney M, Majeed A, Vallejo-Vaz AJ, 2021, Disparities by gender among adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia in the maltese FH registry, EAS 2021, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: e187-e187, ISSN: 0021-9150
El-Osta A, Webber I, Alaa A, et al., 2021, What is the suitability of clinical vignettes in benchmarking the performance of online symptom checkers? An audit study, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Objective To assess the suitability of primary care vignettes in benchmarking the performance of online symptom checkersDesign Observational study using publicly available, free online symptom checkersParticipants Three symptom checkers (Healthily, Ada and Babylon) that provided consultations in English. 139 standardized patient vignettes were compiled by RCGP. Three independent GPs interpreted the vignettes to arrive at a “Gold Standard” consisting of 3 dispositions and divided into one of three categories of triage urgency: (1) emergency care required, (2) primary care required and (3) self-care.Main outcome measures Six professional non-medical and lay inputters simulated 2774 standardized patient evaluations using 3 online symptom checkers (OSC). We recorded when OSC provided a triage recommendation and whether it correctly recommended the appropriate triage recommendation across three categories of triage urgency (emergency care, primary care or self-care). We collected data on whether the solution appeared within the first 3 dispositions in each of the standards across 2774 standardized patient evaluations.Results When benchmarked against the Gold Standard, Healthily provided an appropriate triage recommendation 61.9% of the time compared to 45.3% and 42.4% of the time for Babylon and Ada respectively. There was poor agreement between OSC consultation outcome and Gold Standard dispositions. When compared to the Gold Standard, Healthily gave an unsafe “under-triage” recommendation 28.6% of the time overall across the three categories compared to 43.3% for Ada and 47.5% for Babylon (P<0.001).Conclusions OSCs recommended ‘very unsafe’ triages only <4% of the time suggesting that the online consultation tools are generally working at a safe level of risk. Primary care vignettes are a helpful tool to support development of OSC, but not ideally suited to benchmark the performance of different OSC. Real-world evidence studies
Tudor Car L, Myint Kyaw B, Nannan Panday RS, et al., 2021, Digital health training programs for medical students: a scoping review, Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1438-8871
Background: Medical schools worldwide are accelerating the introduction of digital health courses into their curricula. This review collated and analyzed the literature evaluating digital health education for medical students to inform development of future courses and identify areas where curricula may need to be strengthened.Methods: We carried out a scoping review following the Joanna Briggs Institute’s guidance and reported in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We searched six major bibliographic databases and grey literature sources for the articles published from January 2000 to November 2019. Two authors independently screened the retrieved citations and extracted the data from the included studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus discussion between the authors. The findings were analyzed using thematic analysis and presented narratively.Results: A total of 34 studies focusing on different digital courses were included in this review. Most (n=22) were published from 2010 to 2019 and originated from the US (n=20). The reported digital health courses were mostly elective (n=20), integrated into the existing curriculum (n=24) and focused mainly on medical informatics (n=17). Most of the courses targeted medical students from first to third year (n=17) and the duration of the courses ranged from an hour to three academic years. Most (n=22) reported the use of blended education. Six of 34 delivered courses entirely digitally using online modules, offline learning, Massive Open Online Courses, and virtual patient simulations. The reported courses used various assessment approaches such as paper-based assessments, in person observations and/or online-based assessment. Thirty studies evaluated courses mostly using uncontrolled before and after design and generally reported improvements in students’ learning outcomes. ConclusionsDigital health courses reported in the literature were mostly elective, focused on a single area of digital health and lac
Cecil E, Dewa L, Ma R, et al., 2021, General practitioner and nurse practitioner attitudes towards electronic reminders in primary care: A qualitative analysis, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives Reminders in primary care administrative systems aim to help clinicians provide evidence-based care, prescribe safely and save money. However, increased use of reminders can lead to alert fatigue. Our study aimed to assess general practitioners’ (GPs) and nurse practitioners’ (NPs) views on electronic reminders in primary care.Design A qualitative analysis using semistructured interviews.Setting and participants Fifteen GPs and NP based in general practices located in North-West London and Yorkshire, England.Methods We collected data on participants’ views on: (1) perceptions of the value of information provided; (2) reminder-related behaviours and (3) how to improve reminders. We carried out a thematic analysis.Results Participants were familiar with reminders in their clinical systems and felt many were important to support their clinical work. However, participants reported, on average, 70% of reminders were ignored. Four major themes emerged: (1) reaction to a reminder, which was mixed and varied by situation. (2) Factors influencing the decision to act on reminders, often related to experience, consultation styles and interests of participants. Time constraints, alert design, inappropriate presentation and litigation were also factors. (3) Negative consequences of using reminders were increased workload or costs and compromising GP and NPs behaviour. (4) Factors relating to improving users’ engagement with reminders were prevention of unnecessary reminders through data linkage across healthcare administrative systems or the development of more intelligent algorithms. Participants felt training was vital to effectively manage reminders.Conclusions GPs and NPs believe reminders are useful in supporting the provision of good quality patient care. Improving GPs and NPs’ engagement with reminders centres on further developing their relevance to their clinical practice, which is personalised, considers cognitive workflow and s
Majeed A, Papaluca M, Molokhia M, 2021, Assessing the long-term safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 114, Pages: 337-340, ISSN: 0141-0768
Sekhon Inderjit Singh HK, Lal N, Majeed A, et al., 2021, Ethnic disparities in the uptake of colorectal cancer screening: An analysis of the West London population, Colorectal Disease, Vol: 23, Pages: 1804-1813, ISSN: 1462-8910
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening reduces mortality but variation exists in uptake with poorer uptake in ethnic minority groups. We aim to evaluate the relationship between ethnicity and CRC screening uptake in West London. METHODS: CRC screening results from the Central London, West London, Hammersmith and Fulham, Hounslow and Ealing Clinical commissioning group collaborative between 2012-2017 were retrospectively analysed. These five clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) are located in West London. Compliance with screening according to ethnic groups was evaluated compared to the White British control. RESULTS: 155,038 individuals were screened. White British individuals had the highest compliance (52.6%). A maximal difference of 8.2% compliance was seen between CCGs. The odds of being less likely to participate was significant (p<0.05) in all ethnic minorities except for Asian Chinese on univariate and multivariate analysis (adjusted OR:1.091 p=0.88). CONCLUSION: This is the largest retrospective study focusing on the role of ethnicity in the uptake of CRC screening in England. Poor uptake of screening in all ethnic minorities in West London with the exception of Asian Chinese individuals, in particular, is a novel finding. A mandate to routinely collect ethnicity data, the use of a single more diverse census and further intervention is needed to understand this disparity and improve health inequity. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD TO THE LITERATURE?: We clarify the independent role of ethnic minority as a risk factor for poor colorectal screening uptake in West London. Only Chinese individuals are an exception. This is an important avenue to address to increase screening uptake and decrease cancer mortality overall but to also improve health inequity.
Gurudas S, Nugawela M, Prevost AT, et al., 2021, Development and validation of resource-driven risk prediction models for incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2045-2322
Prediction models for population-based screening need, for global usage, to be resource-driven, involving predictors that are affordably resourced. Here, we report the development and validation of three resource-driven risk models to identify people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) at risk of stage 3 CKD defined by a decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to below 60 mL/min/1.73m2. The observational study cohort used for model development consisted of data from a primary care dataset of 20,510 multi-ethnic individuals with T2DM from London, UK (2007–2018). Discrimination and calibration of the resulting prediction models developed using cox regression were assessed using the c-statistic and calibration slope, respectively. Models were internally validated using tenfold cross-validation and externally validated on 13,346 primary care individuals from Wales, UK. The simplest model was simplified into a risk score to enable implementation in community-based medicine. The derived full model included demographic, laboratory parameters, medication-use, cardiovascular disease history (CVD) and sight threatening retinopathy status (STDR). Two less resource-intense models were developed by excluding CVD and STDR in the second model and HbA1c and HDL in the third model. All three 5-year risk models had good internal discrimination and calibration (optimism adjusted C-statistics were each 0.85 and calibration slopes 0.999–1.002). In Wales, models achieved excellent discrimination(c-statistics ranged 0.82–0.83). Calibration slopes at 5-years suggested models over-predicted risks, however were successfully updated to accommodate reduced incidence of stage 3 CKD in Wales, which improved their alignment with the observed rates in Wales (E/O ratios near to 1). The risk score demonstrated similar model performance compared to direct evaluation of the cox model. These resource-driven risk prediction models may enable universal screening for Stage 3 CKD t
Ngaosuwan K, Johnston DG, Godsland IF, et al., 2021, Increased mortality risk in patients with primary and secondary adrenal insufficiency, Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism, Vol: 106, Pages: e2759-e2768, ISSN: 0021-972X
CONTEXT: Mortality data in patients with adrenal insufficiency are inconsistent, possibly due to temporal and geographical differences between patients and their reference populations. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality risk and causes of death in adrenal insufficiency with an individually-matched reference population. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: UK general practitioner database (CPRD). PARTICIPANTS: 6821 patients with adrenal insufficiency (primary, 2052; secondary, 3948) and 67564 individually-matched controls (primary, 20366; secondary, 39134). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality; hospital admission from adrenal crisis. RESULTS: With follow-up of 40799 and 406899 person-years for patients and controls respectively, the hazard ratio (HR; [95%CI]) for all-cause mortality was 1.68 [1.58 - 1.77]. HRs were greater in primary (1.83 [1.66 - 2.02]) than in secondary (1.52 [1.40 - 1.64]) disease; (HR; primary versus secondary disease, 1.16 [1.03 - 1.30]). The leading cause of death was cardiovascular disease (HR 1.54 [1.32-1.80]), along with malignant neoplasms and respiratory disease. Deaths from infection were also relatively high (HR 4.00 [2.15 - 7.46]). Adrenal crisis contributed to 10% of all deaths. In the first two years following diagnosis, the patients' mortality rate and hospitalisation from adrenal crisis were higher than in later years. CONCLUSION: Mortality was increased in adrenal insufficiency, especially primary, even with individual matching and was observed early in the disease course. Cardiovascular disease was the major cause but mortality from infection was also high. Adrenal crisis was a common contributor. Early education for prompt treatment of infections and avoidance of adrenal crisis hold potential to reduce mortality.
Kendrick PJ, Reitsma MB, Abbasi-Kangevari M, et al., 2021, Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e482-e499, ISSN: 2468-2667
BackgroundChewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.MethodsWe estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period.FindingsIn 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant
Cecil E, Bottle A, Majeed A, et al., 2021, Factors associated with potentially missed acute deterioration in primary care, British Journal of General Practice, Vol: 24/6/21, Pages: e547-e554, ISSN: 0960-1643
BACKGROUND: In the UK, the majority of primary care contacts are uncomplicated. However, safety incidents resulting in patient harm occur, such as failure to recognise a patient's deterioration in health. AIM: We aimed to determine patient and healthcare factors associated with potentially missed deterioration. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort of patients registered with English CPRD general practices between 01-04-2014 and 31-12-2017 with linked hospital data. METHODS: We defined a potentially missed deterioration as a patient, seen in primary care by a GP in the three days before hospitalisation, having a self-referred admission. We used generalised estimating equations to investigate factors associated with odds of a self-referred admission. We investigated all diagnoses and subsets of commonly reported missed conditions. RESULTS: There were 116,097 patients who contacted a GP three days prior to an emergency admission. Patients with sepsis or urinary tract infections were more likely to self-refer, adjusted odds ratio 1.10 95%CI(1.02-1.19) and 1.09 (1.04-1.14) respectively. GP appointment durations were associated with self-referral. On average, a 5-minute increase resulted in 10% decrease in odds of self-referred admissions, 0.90 (0.89-0.91). Patients having a telephone (compared with face-to-face) consultation 1.13 (1.09-1.16), previous health service use and health status were also associated with self-referred admission. CONCLUSIONS: Differentiating deterioration from self-limiting conditions can be difficult for clinicians, particularly in patients with sepsis, UTI or with long-term conditions. Our findings supports the call for longer GP consultations and cautions reliance on telephone consultations in primary care; however, research is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms.
Udeh-Momoh CT, Watermeyer T, Price G, et al., 2021, Protocol of the cognitive health in ageing register: investigational, observational and trial studies in dementia research (CHARIOT): prospective readiness cOhort (PRO) SubStudy., BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2044-6055
INTRODUCTION: The Cognitive Health in Ageing Register: Investigational, Observational and Trial Studies in Dementia Research (CHARIOT): Prospective Readiness cOhort (PRO) SubStudy (CPSS), sponsored by Janssen Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC, is an Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarker enriched observational study that began 3 July 2015 CPSS aims to identify and validate determinants of AD, alongside cognitive, functional and biological changes in older adults with or without detectable evidence of AD pathology at baseline. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: CPSS is a dual-site longitudinal cohort (3.5 years) assessed quarterly. Cognitively normal participants (60-85 years) were recruited across Greater London and Edinburgh. Participants are classified as high, medium (amnestic or non-amnestic) or low risk for developing mild cognitive impairment-Alzheimer's disease based on their Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status performance at screening. Additional AD-related assessments include: a novel cognitive composite, the Global Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite, brain MRI and positron emission tomography and cerebrospinal fluid analysis. Lifestyle, other cognitive and functional data, as well as biosamples (blood, urine, and saliva) are collected. Primarily, study analyses will evaluate longitudinal change in cognitive and functional outcomes. Annual interim analyses for descriptive data occur throughout the course of the study, although inferential statistics are conducted as required. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: CPSS received ethical approvals from the London-Central Research Ethics Committee (15/LO/0711) and the Administration of Radioactive Substances Advisory Committee (RPC 630/3764/33110) The study is at the forefront of global AD prevention efforts, with frequent and robust sampling of the well-characterised cohort, allowing for detection of incipient pathophysiological, cognitive and functional changes that could inform therape
Hodes S, Majeed A, 2021, Building a sustainable infrastructure for covid-19 vaccinations long term, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 373, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 0959-535X
Reitsma MB, Kendrick PJ, Ababneh E, et al., 2021, Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 2337-2360, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundEnding the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally.MethodsWe estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available.FindingsGlobally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers.Int
Johnson SC, Cunningham M, Dippenaar IN, et al., 2021, Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1472-6947
BackgroundAccurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.MethodsWe describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.ResultsThe proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number
Harris M, Kreindler J, El-Osta A, et al., 2021, Safe management of full-capacity live/mass events in COVID19 will require mathematical, epidemiological and economic modelling, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 114, Pages: 290-294, ISSN: 0141-0768
McKay AJ, Gunn LH, Nugawela MD, et al., 2021, Associations between attainment of incentivized primary care indicators and incident sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in England: A population-based historical cohort study, Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism: a journal of pharmacology and therapeutics, Vol: 23, Pages: 1322-1330, ISSN: 1462-8902
AimTo examine the impact of attainment of primary care diabetes clinical indicators on progression to sight‐threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) among those with mild non‐proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR).Materials and MethodsAn historical cohort study of 18,978 adults (43.63% female) diagnosed with type 2 diabetes before 1 April 2010 and mild NPDR before 1 April 2011 was conducted. The data were obtained from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink during 2010‐2017, provided by 330 primary care practices in England. Exposures included attainment of the Quality and Outcomes Framework HbA1c (≤59 mmol/mol [≤7.5%]), blood pressure (≤140/80 mmHg) and cholesterol (≤5 mmol/L) indicators in the financial year 2010‐2011, as well as the number of National Diabetes Audit processes completed in 2010‐2011. The outcome was time to incident STDR. Nearest neighbour propensity score matching was undertaken, and univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were then fitted using the matched samples. Concordance statistics were calculated for each model.ResultsA total of 1037 (5.5%) STDR diagnoses were observed over a mean follow‐up of 3.6 (SD 2.0) years. HbA1c, blood pressure and cholesterol indicator attainment were associated with lower rates of STDR (adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] 0.64 [0.55‐0.74; p < .001], 0.83 [0.72‐0.94; p = .005] and 0.80 [0.66‐0.96; p = .015], respectively).ConclusionsOur findings provide support for meeting appropriate indicators for the management of type 2 diabetes in primary care to bring a range of benefits, including improved health outcomes—such as a reduction in the risk of STDR—for people with type 2 diabetes.
Rao A, Razzaq H, Panamarenko B, et al., 2021, Online application for self-referral of the patients with breast symptoms, Annals of Medicine and Surgery, Vol: 66, ISSN: 2049-0801
IntroductionThe study aimed to devise a self-referral mobile/web application for patients with new breast symptoms, giving them an outcome, thus bypassing the need for primary care consultation.MethodsThe online application was designed on the automated algorithm based on evidence-based guidelines for referral to breast onco-plastic units. A retrospective questionnaire-based anonymous survey was carried out at the breast unit in Southend University Hospital (January 2019 to March 2020). The outcome of the patients was recorded, the same data was entered in the software and its outcome was compared with their clinic outcome to assess and validate the software. Chi-square and t-test were used in formulating results.ResultsData was collected for 366 patients who were referred urgently to the clinic. Only 50.5% (n = 186) were appropriately referred, with the main complaint being breast lump (94.1%). 39.6% of referred patients did not require a secondary care referral. Sensitivity and specificity for identifying patients requiring urgent referral was 100% and 98%, respectively.ConclusionA significant number of urgent referrals to breast units do not require urgent specialist referral, and this results in a big strain on the hospital service. The discussed self-referral pathway is a promising alternative with the potential to reduce workload in primary and secondary care and improve patient satisfaction.
Sartorius B, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, et al., 2021, Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 8, Pages: e363-e375, ISSN: 2352-3018
BackgroundHigh-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.FindingsThe estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated ra
Anderson M, Pitchforth E, Asaria M, et al., 2021, LSE-Lancet Commission on the future of the NHS: re-laying the foundations for an equitable and efficient health and care service after COVID-19, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 1915-1978, ISSN: 0140-6736
Anderson M, O'Neill C, Macleod Clark J, et al., 2021, Securing a sustainable and fit-for-purpose UK health and care workforce, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 1992-2011, ISSN: 0140-6736
Approximately 13% of the total UK workforce is employed in the health and care sector. Despite substantial workforce planning efforts, the effectiveness of this planning has been criticised. Education, training, and workforce plans have typically considered each health-care profession in isolation and have not adequately responded to changing health and care needs. The results are persistent vacancies, poor morale, and low retention. Areas of particular concern highlighted in this Health Policy paper include primary care, mental health, nursing, clinical and non-clinical support, and social care. Responses to workforce shortfalls have included a high reliance on foreign and temporary staff, small-scale changes in skill mix, and enhanced recruitment drives. Impending challenges for the UK health and care workforce include growing multimorbidity, an increasing shortfall in the supply of unpaid carers, and the relative decline of the attractiveness of the National Health Service (NHS) as an employer internationally. We argue that to secure a sustainable and fit-for-purpose health and care workforce, integrated workforce approaches need to be developed alongside reforms to education and training that reflect changes in roles and skill mix, as well as the trend towards multidisciplinary working. Enhancing career development opportunities, promoting staff wellbeing, and tackling discrimination in the NHS are all needed to improve recruitment, retention, and morale of staff. An urgent priority is to offer sufficient aftercare and support to staff who have been exposed to high-risk situations and traumatic experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. In response to growing calls to recognise and reward health and care staff, growth in pay must at least keep pace with projected rises in average earnings, which in turn will require linking future NHS funding allocations to rises in pay. Through illustrative projections, we show that, to sustain annual growth in the workforce at
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