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Pouwels KB, Vansteelandt S, Batra R, et al., 2020, Estimating the effect of healthcare-associated infections on excess length of hospital stay using inverse probability-weighted survival curves, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 71, Pages: e415-e420, ISSN: 1058-4838
BACKGROUND: Studies estimating excess length of stay (LOS) attributable to nosocomial infections have failed to address time-varying confounding, likely leading to overestimation of their impact. We present a methodology based on inverse probability-weighted survival curves to address this limitation. METHODS: A case study focusing on intensive care unit-acquired bacteremia using data from 2 general intensive care units (ICUs) from 2 London teaching hospitals were used to illustrate the methodology. The area under the curve of a conventional Kaplan-Meier curve applied to the observed data was compared with that of an inverse probability-weighted Kaplan-Meier curve applied after treating bacteremia as censoring events. Weights were based on the daily probability of acquiring bacteremia. The difference between the observed average LOS and the average LOS that would be observed if all bacteremia cases could be prevented was multiplied by the number of admitted patients to obtain the total excess LOS. RESULTS: The estimated total number of extra ICU days caused by 666 bacteremia cases was estimated at 2453 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1803-3103) days. The excess number of days was overestimated when ignoring time-varying confounding (2845 [95% CI, 2276-3415]) or when completely ignoring confounding (2838 [95% CI, 2101-3575]). CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired bacteremia was associated with a substantial excess LOS. Wider adoption of inverse probability-weighted survival curves or alternative techniques that address time-varying confounding could lead to better informed decision making around nosocomial infections and other time-dependent exposures.
Hassanzadeh R, Klaber R, Watson M, et al., 2020, Data-driven, integrated primary and secondary care for children: moving from policy to practice, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 114, Pages: 63-68, ISSN: 0141-0768
Despite the best efforts of clinicians, traditional healthcare models often struggle to meet the increasingly complex needs of children and young people under the age of 18 years, as well as 21st century challenges such as obesity and mental health problems. Policy makers and clinical leaders have argued that greater integration of primary and secondary care has the potential to meet the ‘Quadruple aim’ of better population health outcomes, patient and family satisfaction, provider satisfaction and reduced costs.1 More integrated services and improved data sharing across organisations are key enablers of child health improvement. However, there is sparse literature on how more integrated care for children and young people might work in practice or contribute to achieving these goals. We present the experience of developing a new model for integrated care delivery for children and young people in North West London, based on a common system of clinical records or dashboards across all providers. It includes case studies that illustrate the development of strong relationships and shared learning experiences between primary and secondary care.
Al-Saffar M, Hayhoe B, Harris M, et al., 2020, Children as frequent attenders in primary care: a systematic review, BJGP Open, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2398-3795
Background: Frequent paediatric attendances make up a large proportion of the general practitioner (GP) workload. Currently no systematic reviews on frequent paediatric attendances in primary care exists. Aim: To identify the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics of children who attend primary care frequently. Design and setting: A systematic review.Methods: The electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched up to January 2020, using terms relating to frequent attendance in primary care settings. Studies were eligible if they considered children frequently attending in primary care (0-19 years). Relevant data were extracted and analysed by narrative synthesis.Results: Six studies, of overall fair quality, were included in the review. Frequent attendance was associated with presence of psycho-social and mental health problems, younger age, school absence, presence of chronic conditions, and high level of anxiety in their parents.Conclusions: Various sociodemographic and medical characteristics of children were associated with frequent attendance in primary care. Research on interventions needs to account for the social context and community characteristics. Integrating GP services with mental health and social care could potentially provide a response to medical and psycho-social needs of frequently attending children and their families.
Murray CJL, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 2020, Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1135-1159, ISSN: 0140-6736
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.
Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, et al., 2020, Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1250-1284, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundAchieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified
Bloom C, Ramsey H, Alter M, et al., 2020, Qualitative study of practices and challenges of stepping down asthma medication in primary care across the UK, Journal of Asthma and Allergy, Vol: 13, Pages: 429-437, ISSN: 1178-6965
Background: Guidelines recommend that asthma treatment should be stepped down to the minimally effective dose that achieves symptom control to prevent medication side effects and reduce unnecessary costs. Little is known about the practice of stepping down and the challenges in primary care, where most asthma patients are managed.Objective: To explore views, experiences, barriers and ideas, of doctors, nurses and pharmacists working in primary care, related to step down of asthma medication.Methods: Primary care practitioners from across the UK participated in a survey and/or semi-structured interview. Questions explored four main areas: how asthma medication is reviewed, views on asthma guidelines, perceived barriers faced by healthcare workers and facilitators of stepping down. Qualitative content analysis enabled data coding of interview transcripts to identify major themes.Results: A total of 274 participants responded to the survey, 29 participated in an interview (12 doctors, 9 nurses, and 8 pharmacists), working in GP practices from across the UK. Nearly half of the survey participants infrequently step down asthma medication (doctors=42.7%, nurses=46.3%). Four major themes related to barriers to stepping down were (i) lack of awareness of the need to step down, (ii) inertia to step down, driven by low confidence in ability, fear of consequences, and concern for who is responsible for stepping down, (iii) self-efficacy of ability to step down, influenced by lack of clear, applied guidance and limited training, and (iv) feasibility of step down, driven by a lack of systematic acceptance of stepping down and time. Strategies proposed to reduce overtreatment included education and training, improved gathering of evidence and guidance, and integrating step down into routine asthma care.Conclusion: Failure to implement this guideline recommendation into everyday asthma management is influenced by several contributing factors. Future directions should include addre
Webb J, Peerbux S, Smittenaar P, et al., 2020, Preliminary outcomes of a digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation in adult smokers: randomized controlled trial, JMIR Mental Health, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2368-7959
Background: Tobacco smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death and disease worldwide. Digital interventions delivered through smartphones offer a promising alternative to traditional methods, but little is known about their effectiveness.Objective: Our objective was to test the preliminary effectiveness of Quit Genius, a novel digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation.Methods: A 2-arm, single-blinded, parallel-group randomized controlled trial design was used. Participants were recruited via referrals from primary care practices and social media advertisements in the United Kingdom. A total of 556 adult smokers (aged 18 years or older) smoking at least 5 cigarettes a day for the past year were recruited. Of these, 530 were included for the final analysis. Participants were randomized to one of 2 interventions. Treatment consisted of a digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation consisting of a smartphone app delivering cognitive behavioral therapy content, one-to-one coaching, craving tools, and tracking capabilities. The control intervention was very brief advice along the Ask, Advise, Act model. All participants were offered nicotine replacement therapy for 3 months. Participants in a random half of each arm were pseudorandomly assigned a carbon monoxide device for biochemical verification. Outcomes were self-reported via phone or online. The primary outcome was self-reported 7-day point prevalence abstinence at 4 weeks post quit date.Results: A total of 556 participants were randomized (treatment: n=277; control: n=279). The intention-to-treat analysis included 530 participants (n=265 in each arm; 11 excluded for randomization before trial registration and 15 for protocol violations at baseline visit). By the quit date (an average of 16 days after randomization), 89.1% (236/265) of those in the treatment arm were still actively engaged. At the time of the primary outcome, 74.0% (196/265) of participants were still engagi
Dharmayat K, Woringer M, Mastellos N, et al., 2020, Investigation of Cardiovascular Health and Risk factors among the diverse and contemporary population in London (TOGETHER study): Protocol for linking longitudinal medical records (Preprint), JMIR Research Protocols, Vol: 9, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 1929-0748
Background:Global trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) exhibit considerable inter-regional and inter-ethnic differences, which in turn affect long term CVD risk across diverse populations. An in-depth understanding of the interplay between ethnicity, socio-economic status and CVD risk factors and mortality in a contemporaneous population is crucial to informing health policy and resource allocation aimed at mitigating long-term CVD risk. Generating bespoke large-scale and reliable data with sufficient numbers of events is expensive and time consuming but can be circumvented through utilisation and linkage of routine collected data in electronic health records (EHR).Objective:We therefore aim to characterise the burden of CVD risk factors across different ethnicities, age-groups and socio-economic groups, and study CVD incidence and mortality by EHR linkage in London.Methods:The proposed study will initially be a cross-sectional observational study unfolding into prospective CVD ascertainment through longitudinal follow-up involving linked data. The government funded NHS Health Check programme provides an opportunity for the systematic collation of CVD risk factors on a large-scale. NHS Health Check data on approximately 200,000 individuals will be extracted from consenting GP practices across London that use the EHR Egton Medical Information Systems (EMIS) software. Data will be analysed using appropriate statistical techniques to: (i) determine cross-sectional burden of CVD risk factors and their prospective association with CVD outcomes, (ii) validate existing prediction tools in diverse populations and (iii) develop bespoke risk prediction tools across diverse ethnic groups.Results:Enrolment began January 2019 and is ongoing with initial results to be published mid-to-late 2020.Conclusions:There is an urgent need for more real-life population health studies based on analyses of routine health data available in EHRs. Findings from our study will help quantify on
Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, et al., 2020, Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i12-i626, ISSN: 1353-8047
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Parnham JC, Laverty AA, Majeed A, et al., 2020, Half of children entitled to free school meals did not have access to the scheme during COVID-19 lockdown in the UK, Public Health, Vol: 187, Pages: 161-164, ISSN: 0033-3506
OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the study were to investigate access to free school meals (FSMs) among eligible children, to describe factors associated with uptake and to investigate whether receiving FSMs was associated with measures of food insecurity in the UK using the Coronavirus (COVID-19) wave of the UK Household Longitudinal Study. STUDY DESIGN: The study design was cross-sectional analyses of questionnaire data collected in April 2020. METHODS: Six hundred and thirty-five children who were FSM eligible with complete data were included in the analytic sample. Accessing a FSM was defined as receiving a FSM voucher or a cooked meal at school. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate (i) associations between characteristics and access to FSMs and (ii) associations between access to FSMs and household food insecurity measures. All analyses accounted for survey design and sample weights to ensure representativeness. RESULTS: Fifty-one percent of eligible children accessed a FSM. Children in junior schools or above (aged 8+ years) (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 11.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.54, 25.19), who belonged to low-income families (AOR: 4.81; 95% CI: 2.10, 11.03) or still attending schools (AOR: 5.87; 95% CI: 1.70, 20.25) were more likely to receive FSMs. Children in Wales were less likely to access FSMs than those in England (AOR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.43). Receiving a FSM was associated with increased odds of recently using a food bank but not reporting feeling hungry. CONCLUSIONS: In the month after the COVID-19 lockdown, 49% of eligible children did not receive any form of FSMs. The present analyses highlight that the voucher scheme did not adequately serve children who could not attend school during the lockdown. Moreover, more needs to be done to support families relying on income-related benefits, who still report needing to access a food bank. As the scheme may be continued in summer or in a potential second wave, large improve
Younan H-C, Junghans C, Harris M, et al., 2020, Maximising the impact of social prescribing on population health in the era of COVID-19, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 113, Pages: 377-382, ISSN: 0141-0768
James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, et al., 2020, Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i96-i114, ISSN: 1353-8047
BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C, et al., 2020, Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1204-1222, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundIn an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.MethodsGBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of
Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, et al., 2020, Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1223-1249, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundRigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.MethodsGBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quant
Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, et al., 2020, Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1160-1203, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundAccurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated usin
Hargreaves S, Deal A, Mounier-Jack S, et al., 2020, Migration and outbreaks of vaccine-preventable disease in Europe: a systematic analysis (1990-2019), EPH 2020, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Pages: V406-V406, ISSN: 1101-1262
Palladino R, Majeed A, Millett C, et al., 2020, The association between non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and incident vascular disease, 16th World Congress on Public Health, Publisher: Oxford University Press, ISSN: 1101-1262
Greenfield G, Blair M, Aylin P, et al., 2020, Frequent attendances at emergency departments in England, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 37, Pages: 597-599, ISSN: 1472-0205
Background: A small proportion of patients referred to as ‘frequent attenders’ account for a large proportion of hospital activity such as emergency departments (ED) attendances and admissions. There is lack of recent, national estimates of the volume of frequent ED attenders. We aimed to estimate the volume and age distribution of frequent ED attenders in English hospitals.Method: We included all attendances at all major EDs across England in the financial year 2016–2017. Patients who attended 3 times or more were classified as frequent attenders. We used a logistic regression model to predict the odds of being a frequent attender by age group.Results: 14,829,519 attendances were made by 10,062,847 patients who attended at least once. 73.5% of ED attenders attended once and accounted for 49.8% of the total ED attendances. 9.5% of ED attenders attended 3 times or more; they accounted for 27.1% of the ED attendances. While only 1.2% attended 6 times or more, their contribution was 7.6% of the total attendances. Infants and adults aged over 80 years were significantly more likely to be frequent attenders than adults aged 30-59 years (OR=2.11, 95% CI 2.09 to 2.13, OR=2.22, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.23, respectively). The likelihood of hospital admission rose steeply with the number of attendances a patient had.Conclusion: One in ten patients attending the ED are frequent attenders and account for over a quarter of attendances. Emergency care systems should consider better ways of reorganising health services to meet the needs of patients who attend EDs frequently.
Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators, 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17., The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1162-e1185, ISSN: 2214-109X
BACKGROUND: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-
Beaney T, Clarke JM, Jain V, et al., 2020, Excess mortality: the gold standard in measuring the impact of COVID-19 worldwide?, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 113, Pages: 329-334, ISSN: 0141-0768
Robb C, Loots C, Ahmadi-Abhari S, et al., 2020, Associations of social isolation with anxiety and depression during the early COVID-19 Pandemic: a survey of older adults in London, UK, Frontiers in Psychiatry, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1664-0640
The COVID-19 pandemic is imposing a profound negative impact on the health and wellbeing of societies and individuals, worldwide. One concern is the effect of social isolation as a result of social distancing on the mental health of vulnerable populations, including older people.Within six weeks of lockdown, we initiated the CHARIOT COVID-19 Rapid Response Study, a bespoke survey of cognitively healthy older people living in London,to investigate the impact of COVID-19 and associated social isolation on mental and physical wellbeing. The sample was drawn from CHARIOT, a register of people over 50 who have consented to be contacted for ageing related research. A total of 327,127 men and women (mean age=70.7 [SD=7.4]) participated in the baseline survey, May-July 2020. Participants were asked about changes to the 14 components of the Hospital Anxiety Depression scale (HADS) after lockdown was introduced in the UK,on 23rd March. A total of 12.8% of participants reported feeling worse on the depression components of HADS (7.8% men and 17.3% women) and 3612.3% reported feeling worse on the anxiety components (7.8% men and 16.5% women). Fewer participants reported feeling improved (1.5% for depression and 4.9% for anxiety). Women, younger participants, those single/widowed/divorced, reporting poor sleep, feelings of loneliness and who reported living alone were more likely to indicate feeling worse on both the depression and/or anxiety components of the HADS. There was a significant negative association between subjective loneliness and worsened components of both depression (OR 17.24, 95% CI 13.20, 22.50) and anxiety (OR 10.85, 95% CI 8.39, 14.03). Results may inform targeted interventions and help guide policy recommendations in reducing the effects of social isolation related to the pandemic, and beyond, on the mental health of older people.
James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, et al., 2020, Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i125-i153, ISSN: 1353-8047
BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Han SM, Greenfield G, Majeed A, et al., 2020, Impact of Remote Consultations on Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Healthcare: Systematic Review (Preprint), Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> <p>There is growing interest internationally in using remote consultations in primary care, particularly amidst the current COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, the evidence surrounding safety of remote consultations is inconclusive. Appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing in remote consultations is an important aspect of patient safety that needs to be addressed.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> <p>To summarise evidence on the impact of remote consultation in primary care on antibiotic prescribing.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> <p>Searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, HMIC, PSYCINFO and CINAHL from their inception to February 2020. Peer-reviewed publications conducted in primary healthcare settings were included. All remote consultation types were considered, and studies were required to report any quantitative measure of antibiotic prescribing. Studies were excluded if there were no comparison group (face-to-face consultations).</p> </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title> <p>Thirteen studies were identified. Five studies demonstrated higher antibiotic prescribing rates in remote consultations compared to face-to-face consultations, three studies demonstrated lower antibiotic prescribing rate and two studies found no significant difference. Guideline-concordant prescribing was not significantly different between remote and face-to-face consultations for sinusitis patients, but conflicting results were found for patients with acute respiratory infections.</p> </s
Fadahunsi KP, O'Connor S, Akinlua JT, et al., 2020, Information Quality Frameworks for Digital Health Technologies: Systematic Review (Preprint), Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> <p>Digital health technologies (DHTs) generate a large volume of information used in health care for administrative, educational, research, and clinical purposes. The clinical use of digital information for diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic purposes has multiple patient safety problems, some of which result from poor information quality (IQ).</p> </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> <p>This systematic review aims to synthesize an IQ framework that could be used to evaluate the extent to which digital health information is fit for clinical purposes.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> <p>The review was conducted according to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines. We searched Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, Maternity and Infant Care, PsycINFO, Global Health, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, Scopus, and HMIC (the Health Management Information Consortium) from inception until October 2019. Multidimensional IQ frameworks for assessing DHTs used in the clinical context by health care professionals were included. A thematic synthesis approach was used to synthesize the Clinical Information Quality (CLIQ) framework for digital health.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title> <p>We identified 10 existing IQ frameworks from which we developed the CLIQ framework for digital health with 13 unique dimensions: accessibility, completeness, portability, security, timeliness, accuracy, interpretability, plausibility, provenance, relevance, conformanc
Webb J, Peerbux S, Smittenaar P, et al., 2020, Preliminary Outcomes of a Digital Therapeutic Intervention for Smoking Cessation in Adult Smokers: Randomized Controlled Trial (Preprint), Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> <p>Tobacco smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death and disease worldwide. Digital interventions delivered through smartphones offer a promising alternative to traditional methods, but little is known about their effectiveness.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> <p>Our objective was to test the preliminary effectiveness of Quit Genius, a novel digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation.</p> </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> <p>A 2-arm, single-blinded, parallel-group randomized controlled trial design was used. Participants were recruited via referrals from primary care practices and social media advertisements in the United Kingdom. A total of 556 adult smokers (aged 18 years or older) smoking at least 5 cigarettes a day for the past year were recruited. Of these, 530 were included for the final analysis. Participants were randomized to one of 2 interventions. Treatment consisted of a digital therapeutic intervention for smoking cessation consisting of a smartphone app delivering cognitive behavioral therapy content, one-to-one coaching, craving tools, and tracking capabilities. The control intervention was very brief advice along the Ask, Advise, Act model. All participants were offered nicotine replacement therapy for 3 months. Participants in a random half of each arm were pseudorandomly assigned a carbon monoxide device for biochemical verification. Outcomes were self-reported via phone or online. The primary outcome was self-reported 7-day point prevalence abstinence at 4 weeks post quit date.</p> </sec> <sec>
Majeed A, 2020, The impact of COVID-19 on academic primary care and public health, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 113, Pages: 319-319, ISSN: 0141-0768
Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, et al., 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1038-e1060, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundOral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs.MethodsWe used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws.FindingsWhile ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively co
Clarke J, Beaney T, Majeed A, et al., 2020, Identifying naturally occurring communities of primary care providers in the English National Health Service in London, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objectives - Primary Care Networks (PCNs) are a new organisational hierarchy with wide-ranging responsibilities introduced in the National Health Service (NHS) Long Term Plan. The vision is that they represent ‘natural’ communities of general practices (GP practices) working together at scale and covering a geography that make sense to practices, other healthcare providers and local communities. Our study aims to identify natural communities of GP practices based on patient registration patterns using Markov Multiscale Community Detection, an unsupervised network-based clustering technique to create catchments for these communities.Design - Retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics – patient-level administrative records of inpatient, outpatient and emergency department attendances to hospital.Setting – General practices in the 32 Clinical Commissioning Groups of Greater London Participants - All adult patients resident in and registered to a GP practices in Greater London that had one or more outpatient encounters at NHS hospital trusts between 1st April 2017 and 31st March 2018.Main outcome measures The allocation of GP practices in Greater London to PCNs based on the registrations of patients resident in each Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of Greater London. The population size and coverage of each proposed PCN. Results - 3,428,322 unique patients attended 1,334 GPs in 4,835 LSOAs in Greater London. Our model grouped 1,291 GPs (96.8%) and 4,721 LSOAs (97.6%), into 165 mutually exclusive PCNs. The median PCN list size was 53,490, with a lower quartile of 38,079 patients and an upper quartile of 72,982 patients. A median of 70.1% of patients attended a GP within their allocated PCN, ranging from 44.6% to 91.4%.Conclusions - With PCNs expected to take a role in population health management and with community providers expected to reconfigure around them, it is vital we recognise how PCNs represent their communities. O
Anyanwu PE, Pouwels K, Walker A, et al., 2020, Investigating the mechanism of impact and differential effect of the Quality Premium scheme on antibiotic prescribing in England: a longitudinal study, BJGP Open, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2398-3795
BACKGROUND: In 2017, approximately 73% of antibiotics in England were prescribed from primary care practices. It has been estimated that 9%-23% of antibiotic prescriptions between 2013 and 2015 were inappropriate. Reducing antibiotic prescribing in primary care was included as one of the national priorities in a financial incentive scheme in 2015-2016. AIM: To investigate whether the effects of the Quality Premium (QP), which provided performance-related financial incentives to clinical commissioning groups (CCGs), could be explained by practice characteristics that contribute to variations in antibiotic prescribing. DESIGN & SETTING: Longitudinal monthly prescribing data were analysed for 6251 primary care practices in England from April 2014 to March 2016. METHOD: Linear generalised estimating equations models were fitted, examining the effect of the 2015-2016 QP on the number of antibiotic items per specific therapeutic group age-sex related prescribing unit (STAR-PU) prescribed, adjusting for seasonality and months since implementation. Consistency of effects after further adjustment for variations in practice characteristics were also examined, including practice workforce, comorbidities prevalence, prescribing rates of non-antibiotic drugs, and deprivation. RESULTS: Antibiotics prescribed in primary care practices in England reduced by -0.172 items per STAR-PU (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.180 to -0.171) after 2015-2016 QP implementation, with slight increases in the months following April 2015 (+0.014 items per STAR-PU; 95% CI = +0.013 to +0.014). Adjusting the model for practice characteristics, the immediate and month-on-month effects following implementation remained consistent, with slight attenuation in immediate reduction from -0.172 to -0.166 items per STAR-PU. In subgroup analysis, the QP effect was significantly greater among the top 20% prescribing practices (interaction p<0.001). Practices with low workforce and those with higher diabet
Laverty AA, Millett C, Majeed A, et al., 2020, COVID-19 presents opportunities and threats to transport and health, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, Vol: 113, Pages: 251-254, ISSN: 0141-0768
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