Imperial College London

Professor Toby Prevost

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Visiting Professor







57Stadium HouseWhite City Campus





Since May 2020, Toby Prevost has been a Visiting Professor at Imperial, and the Nightingale-Saunders Chair in Complex Clinical Trials and Statistics at King's College London where he is the Director of the Nightingale-Saunders Clinical Trials & Epidemiology Unit @ King's CTU. 

Between January 2016 and May 2020, Toby was Chair in Medical Statistics and Clinical Trials at Imperial. He headed the statistics groups in the Clinical Trials Unit and the Statistical Advisory Service.

Before this he held a Chair in Medical Statistics at King's College London, following posts at the University of Cambridge in a nationwide survey team, a statistical consulting unit, as trial statistician in a primary care research unit, and in a methodology post, researching complex interventions, in the MRC Biostatistics Unit.

Toby currently has roles on the NIHR COVID call committee for Recovery and Learning (since June 2020), and NICE public health advisory committees (since 2008), and as expert advisor to the NICE Centre for Guidelines (since 2017), and previously a Royal Statistical Society Primary Health Care study group committee member (2002-2013), and  NIHR Public Health Research funding committee member (2014-2020).

The following publications and PhD collaborations show his research interests in designing and conducting trials to evaluate primary care interventions (largely lifestyle behaviour intervention aimed at preventing health deteriorating), and clinical treatments (recently, ophthalmology trials of treatments aiming to improve health conditions), and the study of methods to improve this research (focused on trial design research).

Health Research

Tan T, Khoo B, Mills EG, Phylactou M, Patel B, Eng PC, Thurston L, Muzi B, Meeran K, Prevost AT, Comninos AN, Abbara A, Dhillo WS. Higher serum total cortisol levels are associated with increased mortality from Covid-19. Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology 2020;June 18th.

Hardeman W, Mitchell J, Pears S, Van Emmenis M, Theil F, GC VS, Vasconcelos JC, Westgate K, Brage S, Suhrcke M, Griffin S, Kinmonth AL, Wilson ECF, Prevost AT, Sutton S. Evaluation of a very brief pedometer-based physical activity intervention delivered in NHS Health Checks: The VBI randomised controlled trial. Plos Medicine 2020;17(3):e1003046

Jawad S, Modi N, Prevost AT, Gale C. A systematic review identifying common data items in neonatal trials and assessing their completeness in routinely recorded United Kingdom national neonatal data. Trials 2019;20:731

Gulliford MC, Prevost AT, Charlton J et al., Juszczyk D, Soames J, McDermott L, Sultana K, Wright M, Fox R, Hay A, Little P, Moore MV, Yardley L, Ashworth M. Effectiveness and safety of electronically-delivered prescribing feedback and decision support on antibiotic utilization for respiratory illness in primary care. BMJ 2019;364:I236

Hykin P, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Murphy C, Kelly J, Ramu J, Hounsome B, Yang Y, Harding SP, Lotery A, Chakravarthy U, Sivaprasad S; LEAVO Study Group. Clinical Effectiveness of Intravitreal Therapy With Ranibizumab vs Aflibercept vs Bevacizumab for Macular Edema Secondary to Central Retinal Vein Occlusion: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Ophthalmol. 2019 Aug 29.

Crockett RA, King SE, Marteau TM, Prevost AT, Bignardi G, Roberts NW, Stubbs B, Hollands GJ, Jebb SA. Nutritional labelling for healthier food or non-alcoholic drink purchasing and consumption. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2018, Issue 2. Art. No.: CD009315.

Sivaprasad S, Vasconcelos JC, Prevost AT, Holmes H, Hykin P, George S, Murphy C, Kelly J, Arden GB. Clinical efficacy and safety of a light mask for prevention of dark adaption in treating and preventing progression of early diabetic macular oedema at 24 months (CLEOPATRA): a multicentre, phase 3, randomised controlled trial. Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology 2018;391.

Sivaprasad S, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Riddell A, Murphy C, Kelly J, Bainbridge J, Tudor-Edwards R, Hopkins D, Hykin P.  Clinical efficacy of intravitreal aflibercept versus panretinal photocoagulation for best corrected visual acuity in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy at 52 weeks (CLARITY): a multicentre, single-blinded, randomised, controlled, phase 2b, non-inferiority trial. The Lancet 2017;389:2193-2203.

Pears S, Bijker M, Morton K, Vasconcelos J, Parker RA, Westgate K, Brage S, Wilson E, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Griffin S, Sutton S, Hardeman W. A randomised controlled trial of three very brief interventions for physical activity in primary care. BMC Public Health 2016 Sep;16(1):1033

Hollands GJ, French DP, Griffin SJ, Prevost AT, Sutton S, King S, Marteau TM. The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis. BMJ 2016 Mar;352i1102.

Farquhar M, Prevost AT, McCrone P, Brafman-Price B, Bentley A, Higginson IJ, Todd C, Booth S. The clinical and cost-effectiveness of a Breathlessness Intervention Service for patients with advanced non-malignant disease and their informal carers - mixed findings of a mixed method randomised controlled trial. Trials 2016 Apr;17:185.

Hankonen N, Sutton S, Prevost AT, Simmons RK, Griffin SJ, Kinmonth AL, Hardeman W. Which Behavior Change Techniques are Associated with Changes in Physical Activity, Diet and Body Mass Index in People with Recently Diagnosed Diabetes? Annals of Behavioral Medicine 2015 Feb;49:7-17

Farquhar MC, Prevost AT, McCrone P, Brafman-Price B, Bentley A, Higginson IJ, Todd C, Booth S. Is a specialist breathlessness service more effective and cost-effective for patients with advanced cancer and their carers than standard care? Findings of a mixed-method randomised controlled trial. BMC Medicine. 2014;12:194.

Simmons D, Prevost AT, Bunn C, Holman D, Parker RA, Cohn S, Donald S, Paddison CA, Ward C, Robins P, Graffy J. Impact of Community Based Peer Support in Type 2 Diabetes: A Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial of Individual and/or Group Approaches.  PLoS One 2015 Mar;10(3):e0120277

Naughton F, Jamison J, Boase S, Sloan M, Gilbert H, Prevost AT, Mason D, Smith S, Brimicombe J, Evans R, Sutton S. Randomized controlled trial to assess the short-term effectiveness of tailored web- and text-based facilitation of smoking cessation in primary care (iQuit in Practice).Addiction 2014;109:1184-93

Marcovecchio ML, Woodside J, Jones T, Daneman D, Neil A, Prevost T, Dalton RN, Deanfield J, Dunger D; on behalf of the AdDIT Investigators. Adolescent Type 1 Diabetes cardio-renal Intervention Trial (AdDIT): Urinary screening and baseline biochemical and cardiovascular assessments. Diabetes Care 2014;37:805-13.

Booth H, Khan O, Prevost T, Reddy M, Dregan A, Charlton J, Ashworth M, Rudsill C, Littlejohns P, Gulliford MC. Incidence of type 2 diabetes after bariatric surgery: population-based matched cohort study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinology 2014;2(12):963-8.

Corrie PG, Moody AM, Armstrong G, Nolasco S, Lao-Sirieix S-H, Bavister L, Prevost AT, Parker R, Sabes-Figuera R, McCrone P, Balsdon H, McKinnon K, Hounsell A, O’Sullivan B, Barclay S. Is community treatment best? A randomised trial comparing delivery of cancer treatment in the hospital, home and GP surgery. British Journal of Cancer 2013;109:1549-55.

Simmons RK, Echouffo-Tcheugui JB, Sharp SJ, Sargeant LA, Williams KM, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ, Griffin SJ. Screening for type 2 diabetes and population mortality over 10 years (ADDITION-Cambridge): a cluster-randomised controlled trial. The Lancet 2012;380(9855):1741-8.

Farmer A, Hardeman W, Hughes D, Prevost AT, Kim Y, Craven A, Oke J, Boase S, Selwood M, Kellar I, Graffy J, Griffin S, Sutton S, Kinmonth AL. An explanatory randomised controlled trial of a nurse-led, consultation-based intervention to support patients with adherence to taking glucose lowering medication for type 2 diabetes. BMC Family Practice 2012;13:30

Walter FM, Prevost AT, Birt L, Grehan N, Restarick K, Morris HC, Sutton S, Rose P, Downing S, Emery JD. Development and evaluation of a brief self-completed family history screening tool for common chronic disease prevention in primary care. British Journal of General Practice 2013;63:393-400.

Walter FM, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos J, Hall PN, Burrows NP, Morris HC, Kinmonth AL, Emery JD. Using the seven-point checklist as a diagnostic aid for pigmented skin lesions in general practice: a diagnostic validation study. British Journal of General Practice 2013;63:345-353.

Walter FM, Morris HC, Humphrys E, Hall PN, Prevost AT, Burrows N, Bradshaw L, Wilson EC, Norris P, Walls J, Johnson M, Kinmonth AL, Emery JD. Effect of adding a diagnostic aid to best practice to manage suspicious pigmented lesions in primary care: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4110

Hollands GJ, Whitwell SC, Parker RA, Prescott NJ, Forbes A, Sanderson J, Mathew CG, Lewis CM, Watts S, Sutton S, Armstrong D, Kinmonth AL, Prevost AT, Marteau TM. Effect of communicating DNA based risk assessments for Crohn’s disease on smoking cessation: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4708.

Marteau TM, Aveyard P, Munafò MR, Prevost AT, Hollands GJ, Armstrong D, Sutton S, Hill C, Johnstone E, Kinmonth AL. Effect on adherence to nicotine replacement therapy of informing smokers their dose is determined by their genotype: a randomised controlled trial. PLoS One 2012;7(4):e35249.

Marteau TM, Mann E, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Kellar I, Sanderson S, Parker M, Griffin S, Sutton S, Kinmonth AL. Impact of an informed choice invitation on uptake of screening for diabetes in primary care (DICISION): a randomised trial. BMJ 2010;340:c2138

Paddison CAM, Eborall HC, Sutton S, French DP, Vasconcelos J, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Griffin SJ. Are people with negative diabetes screening tests falsely reassured? A parallel group cohort study embedded in the ADDITION (Cambridge) randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2009;339:b4535

Naughton F, Prevost AT, Sutton S. Self-help smoking cessation interventions in pregnancy - a systematic review and meta-analysis. Addiction 2008;103:566-79

Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ, Hardeman W, Sutton S, Prevost AT, Fanshawe T, Williams K, Ekelund U, Spiegelhalter D, Griffin SJ. Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial. The Lancet 2008;371:41-48

Hardeman W, Michie S, Fanshawe T, Prevost AT, Mcloughlin K, Kinmonth AL. Fidelity of delivery of a physical activity intervention: Predictors and consequences. Psychology and Health 2008;23:11-24

Eborall HC, Griffin SJ, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, French DP, Sutton S. Psychological Impact of Screening for Type 2 Diabetes: Controlled Trial and Comparative Study Embedded in the ADDITION (Cambridge) Randomised Controlled trial. BMJ 2007;335:486

Emery J, Morris H, Goodchild R, Fanshawe T, Prevost AT, Bobrow M, Kinmonth AL. The GRAIDS Trial: a cluster randomised controlled trial of computer decision support for the management of familial cancer risk in primary care. British Journal of Cancer 2007;97:486-493

Braithwaite D, Emery J, Walter F, Prevost AT, Sutton S. Psychological impact of genetic counseling for familial cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2004;96:122-133 

Brown PJB, Warmington V, Laurence M, Prevost AT. Randomised crossover trial comparing the performance of Clinical Terms Version 3 and Read Codes 5 byte set coding schemes in general practice. BMJ 2003;326:1127-30 

Stoeber K, Swinn R, Prevost AT, DeClive-Lowe P, Halsall, I, Dilworth SM, Marr, J, Turner WH, Bullock N, Doble A, Hales CN, Williams GH. Diagnosis of genito-urinary tract cancer by detection of Mcm5 in urine sediments. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2002;94:1071-9

Hunt PJ, Gurnell EM, Huppert FA, Richards C, Prevost AT, Wass JAH, Herbert J, Chatterjee VKK. Improvement in mood and fatigue after dehydroepiandrosterone replacement in Addison's disease in a randomized, double blind trial. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism 2000;12:4650-6

Williams DEM, Prevost AT, Whichelow MJ, Cox BD, Day NE, Wareham NJ. A cross-sectional study of dietary patterns with glucose intolerance and other features of the metabolic syndrome. British Journal of Nutrition 2000;83:257-66

Prevost AT, Whichelow MJ, Cox BD. Longitudinal dietary changes between 1984-5 and 1991-2 in British adults: associations with socio-demographic, lifestyle and health factors.British Journal of Nutrition 1997;78:873-88

Whichelow MJ, Prevost AT. Dietary patterns and their association with demographic, lifestyle and health parameters in a random sample of British adults. British Journal of Nutrition 1996;76:17-30

PhD research collaborations

Julia Kenkre, NIHR Doctoral Research Fellowship (2018-), Who will benefit from bariatric surgery for diabetes? Using genetic markers and measurement of fat distribution to predict remission of diabetes. Lead Supervisor: Tricia Tan 

Sizarum Choudhury, NIHR Doctoral Research Fellowship (2018-), Safety and Efficacy of Prednisolone in Adrenal Insufficiency Disease. Supervisors: Karim Meeran and Tricia Tan

Sena Jawad, PhD in Trial statistics, Exploring the Use of Electronic Patient Record Data for Clinical Trials (E-PReDicT). Lead supervisor: Chris Gale

Joana Vasconcelos, PhD in Medical Statistics (2014-), Handling missing statistics in meta-analyses of trials. External supervisor: Rebecca Turner.

Fowzia Ibrahim, PhD in Medical Statistics (2013-2020), Handling missing data in composite outcomes in Rheumatology Trials. External supervisor: Brian Tom.

David Robertson, PhD in Medical Statistics (2013-2016), Cambridge. Adaptive Design in two-stage studies. Lead supervisor: Jack Bowden.

Helen Booth, PhD in Epidemiology (2011-2014), KCL. An Epidemiological study of obesity using primary care electronic health records. Lead supervisor: Martin Gulliford.

Neil Casey, PhD in Medical Statistics (2008-2011), Cambridge. Causal mediation methods in trials of complex interventions. Supervised with Simon Thompson.


Methodological Research

Santhakumaran S, Gordon A, Prevost AT, O'Kane C, McAuley DF, Shankar-Hari M. Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect by Baseline Risk of Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: Re-analysis of three recent Sepsis and ARDS Randomised Controlled Trials. Critical Care 2019;23(1):156 

Vasconcelos J, Turner R, Prevost AT. A way to assess the impact of an omitted study on the overall meta-analysis estimate. Trials 2017;18(Suppl 1):O60

Ibrahim F, Tom BDM, Scott DL, Prevost AT. A systematic review of randomised controlled trials in rheumatoid arthritis: the reporting and handling of missing data in composite outcomes. Trials 2016 Jun;17(1):272

Robertson D, Prevost AT, Bowden J. Unbiased estimation in seamless phase II/III trials with unequal treatment effect variances and hypothesis driven selection rules. Statistics in Medicine 2016 Sep 30;35(22):3907-22.

Robertson D, Prevost AT, Bowden J. Accounting for selection and correlation in the analysis of two-stage genome-wide association studies. Biostatistics 2016;1-16 

Robertson D, Prevost AT, Bowden J. Correcting for bias in the selection and validation of informative diagnostic tests. Statistics in Medicine 2015;34:1417-37

Prevost AT, Bowden J. Designing a preliminary adaptive study to inform a biomarker trial in Psoriasis. Trials 2011;12(Suppl1),p.A17

Casey N, Thompson S, Prevost AT. Modelling multiple outcomes to improve the detection of causal mediation effects in complex intervention trials. Trials 2011;12(Suppl1):O

Lancaster GA, Campbell MJ, Eldridge S, Farrin A, Marchant M, Muller S, Perera R, Peters TJ, Prevost AT, Rait G. Trials in Primary Care: statistical  issues in the design, conduct and evaluation of complex interventions. Statistical Methods in Medical Research  2010;19:349-77 

Fanshawe TR, Prevost AT, Roberts JS, Green RC, Armstrong D, Marteau TM. Explaining behaviour change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates. Genetic Testing 2008;12:381-6

Prevost AT, Mason D, Griffin S, Kinmonth AL, Sutton S, Spiegelhalter D. Allowing for correlations between correlations in random-effects meta-analysis of correlation matrices. Psychological Methods 2007;12:434-50 

Turner RM, Prevost AT, Thompson SG. Allowing for imprecision of the intracluster correlation coefficient in the design of cluster randomised trials. Statistics in Medicine 2004;23:1195-1214




Farne H, Glanville N, Johnson N, et al., 2022, Effect of CRTH2 antagonism on the response to experimental rhinovirus infection in asthma: a pilot randomized controlled trial, Thorax, Vol:77, ISSN:0040-6376, Pages:950-959

Ibrahim F, Tom BDM, Scott DL, et al., 2022, Characterization of missing data patterns and mechanisms in longitudinal composite outcome trial in rheumatoid arthritis, Therapeutic Advances in Musculoskeletal Disease, Vol:14, ISSN:1759-720X

Nugawela MD, Gurudas S, Prevost AT, et al., 2022, Development and validation of predictive risk models for sight threatening diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes to be applied as triage tools in resource limited settings, Eclinicalmedicine, Vol:51

Antcliffe DB, Mi Y, Santhakumaran S, et al., 2022, Inflammatory sub-phenotypes in sepsis: relationship to outcomes, treatment effect and transcriptomic sub-phenotypes

Gulliford MC, Prevost AT, Clegg A, et al., 2022, Mortality of Care Home Residents and Community-Dwelling Controls During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020: Matched Cohort Study, Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, Vol:23, ISSN:1525-8610, Pages:923-+

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