Publications
13 results found
Kalamara E, Turrell A, Redl C, et al., 2022, Making text count: Economic forecasting using newspaper text, JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Vol: 37, Pages: 896-919, ISSN: 0883-7252
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- Citations: 1
Turrell A, Speigner B, Copple D, et al., 2021, Is the UK's productivity puzzle mostly driven by occupational mismatch? An analysis using big data on job vacancies, LABOUR ECONOMICS, Vol: 71, ISSN: 0927-5371
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- Citations: 1
Hill E, Bardoscia M, Turrell A, 2021, Solving Heterogeneous General Equilibrium Economic Models with Deep Reinforcement Learning
General equilibrium macroeconomic models are a core tool used by policymakersto understand a nation's economy. They represent the economy as a collection offorward-looking actors whose behaviours combine, possibly with stochasticeffects, to determine global variables (such as prices) in a dynamicequilibrium. However, standard semi-analytical techniques for solving thesemodels make it difficult to include the important effects of heterogeneouseconomic actors. The COVID-19 pandemic has further highlighted the importanceof heterogeneity, for example in age and sector of employment, in macroeconomicoutcomes and the need for models that can more easily incorporate it. We usetechniques from reinforcement learning to solve such models incorporatingheterogeneous agents in a way that is simple, extensible, and computationallyefficient. We demonstrate the method's accuracy and stability on a toy problemfor which there is a known analytical solution, its versatility by solving ageneral equilibrium problem that includes global stochasticity, and itsflexibility by solving a combined macroeconomic and epidemiological model toexplore the economic and health implications of a pandemic. The lattersuccessfully captures plausible economic behaviours induced by differentialhealth risks by age.
Duchini E, Simion S, Turrell A, et al., 2020, Pay Transparency and Gender Equality
Since 2018 UK firms with at least 250 employees have been mandated topublicly disclose gender equality indicators. Exploiting variations in thismandate across firm size and time we show that pay transparency closes 18percent of the gender pay gap by reducing men's wage growth. The publicavailability of the equality indicators seems to influence employers' responseas worse performing firms and industries more exposed to public scrutiny reducetheir gender pay gap the most. Employers are also 9 percent more likely to postwages in job vacancies, potentially in an effort to improve gender equality atentry level.
Haldane AG, Turrell AE, 2019, Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models, JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMICS, Vol: 29, Pages: 39-66, ISSN: 0936-9937
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- Citations: 23
G Haldane A, E Turrell A, 2018, Un modelo interdisciplinario para la macroeconomía, Revista de Economía Institucional, Vol: 21, Pages: 69-110, ISSN: 0124-5996
<jats:p>La modelación macroeconómica está bajo intenso escrutinio desde la gran crisis financiera, que dejó al descubierto los graves defectos de la metodología utilizada para entender la economía en su conjunto. Se critican los supuestos empleados en los modelos dominantes, en particular que los agentes económicos son homogéneos y optimizadores y que la economía se equilibra. Este escrito explora un enfoque interdisciplinario de modelación macroeconómica con técnicas tomadas de otras ciencias, y examina la modelación basada en agentes como ejemplo de esas técnicas. Los modelos basados en agentes complementan los enfoques existentes y son adecuados para responder preguntas macroeconómicas donde la complejidad, la heterogeneidad, las redes y las heurísticas cumplen un papel importante.</jats:p>
Braun-Munzinger K, Liu Z, Turrell AE, 2018, An agent-based model of corporate bond trading, QUANTITATIVE FINANCE, Vol: 18, Pages: 591-608, ISSN: 1469-7688
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- Citations: 3
Turrell AE, Sherlock M, Rose SJ, 2016, Efficient evaluation of collisional energy transfer terms for plasma particle simulations, JOURNAL OF PLASMA PHYSICS, Vol: 82, ISSN: 0022-3778
Turrell A, Sherlock M, Rose SJ, 2015, Ultra-fast collisional ion heating by electrostatic shocks, Nature Communications, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2041-1723
High intensity lasers can be used to generate shockwaves which have found applications in nuclear fusion, proton imaging, cancer therapies, and materials science. Collisionless electrostatic shocks are one type of shockwave widely studied for applications involving ion acceleration. Here we show a novel mechanism for collisionlesselectrostatic shocks to heat small amounts of solid density matter to temperatures of ∼ keV in tens of femtoseconds. Unusually, electrons play no direct role in the heating, and it is the ions which determine the heating rate. Ions are heated due to an interplay between the electric field of the shock, the local density increaseduring the passage of the shock, and collisions between different species of ion. In simulations, these factors combine to produce rapid, localised heating of the lighter ion species. Although the heated volume is modest, this would be one of the fastest heating mechanisms discovered if demonstrated in the laboratory.
Turrell AE, Sherlock M, Rose SJ, 2015, Self-consistent inclusion of classical large-angle Coulomb collisions in plasma Monte Carlo simulations, Journal of Computational Physics, Vol: 299, Pages: 144-155, ISSN: 1090-2716
Large-angle Coulomb collisions allow for the exchange of a significant proportion of the energy of a particle in a single collision, but are not included in models of plasmas based on fluids, the Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equation, or currently available plasma Monte Carlo techniques. Their unique effects include the creation of fast ‘knock-on’ ions, which may be more likely to undergo certain reactions, and distortions to ion distribution functions relative to what is predicted by small-angle collision only theories. We present a computational method which uses Monte Carlo techniques to include the effects of large-angle Coulomb collisions in plasmas and which self-consistently evolves distribution functions according to the creation of knock-on ions of any generation. The method is used to demonstrate ion distribution function distortions in an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) relevant scenario of the slowing of fusion products.
Turrell AE, Rose SJ, Sherlock M, 2014, Effects of Large-Angle Coulomb Collisions on Inertial Confinement Fusion Plasmas, Physical Review Letters, Vol: 112
Large-angle Coulomb collisions affect the rates of energy and momentum exchange in a plasma, and it is expected that their effects will be important in many plasmas of current research interest, including in inertial confinement fusion. Their inclusion is a long-standing problem, and the first fully self-consistent method for calculating their effects is presented. This method is applied to “burn” in the hot fuel in inertial confinement fusion capsules and finds that the yield increases due to an increase in the rate of temperature equilibration between electrons and ions which is not predicted by small-angle collision theories. The equilibration rate increases are 50%–100% for number densities of 10^{30} m^{−3} and temperatures around1 keV.
Turrell AE, Sherlock M, Rose SJ, 2013, A Monte Carlo algorithm for degenerate plasmas, JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS, Vol: 249, Pages: 13-21, ISSN: 0021-9991
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- Citations: 7
Haldane A, Turrell A, An Interdisciplinary Model for Macroeconomics, SSRN Electronic Journal
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