Imperial College London
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ProfessorApostolosVoulgarakis

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics

Professor in Global Climate and Environmental Change
 
 
 
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Contact

 

a.voulgarakis Website

 
 
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Location

 

Huxley 709BHuxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Shawki:2017:10.1002/2017GL073660,
author = {Shawki, D and Field, RD and Tippett, MK and Saharjo, BH and Albar, I and Atmoko, D and Voulgarakis, A},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073660},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
pages = {9996--10005},
title = {Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073660},
volume = {44},
year = {2017}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - We conducted a case study of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180 day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.
AU  - Shawki,D
AU  - Field,RD
AU  - Tippett,MK
AU  - Saharjo,BH
AU  - Albar,I
AU  - Atmoko,D
AU  - Voulgarakis,A
DO  - 10.1002/2017GL073660
EP  - 10005
PY  - 2017///
SN  - 0094-8276
SP  - 9996
TI  - Long-Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia
T2  - Geophysical Research Letters
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073660
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/54945
VL  - 44
ER  -
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