Imperial College London
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DrAdrianLeach

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)1557 331 337a.w.leach

 
 
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Location

 

Silwood ParkSilwood Park

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Holt:2017:10.1111/risa.12852,
author = {Holt, J and Leach, AW and Johnson, S and Tu, DM and Nhu, DT and Anh, NT and Quinlan, MM and Whittle, PJL and Mengersen, K and Mumford, JD},
doi = {10.1111/risa.12852},
journal = {Risk Analysis},
pages = {297--310},
title = {Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12852},
volume = {38},
year = {2017}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain.
AU  - Holt,J
AU  - Leach,AW
AU  - Johnson,S
AU  - Tu,DM
AU  - Nhu,DT
AU  - Anh,NT
AU  - Quinlan,MM
AU  - Whittle,PJL
AU  - Mengersen,K
AU  - Mumford,JD
DO  - 10.1111/risa.12852
EP  - 310
PY  - 2017///
SN  - 0272-4332
SP  - 297
TI  - Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.
T2  - Risk Analysis
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12852
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/56077
VL  - 38
ER  -
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