Imperial College London
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DrAdaYan

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Infectious Disease

Imperial College Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

a.yan Website

 
 
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Location

 

421Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Menkir:2021:10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8,
author = {Menkir, TF and Chin, T and Hay, JA and Surface, ED and De, Salazar PM and Buckee, CO and Watts, A and Khan, K and Sherbo, R and Yan, AWC and Mina, MJ and Lipsitch, M and Niehus, R},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8},
journal = {Nature Communications},
title = {Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations. We estimate that 10.4 (6.2 - 27.1) COVID-19 cases were imported to these African destinations, which exhibited marked variation in their magnitude and main sources of importation. We estimate that 90% of imported cases arrived between 17 January and 7 February, prior to the first case detections. Our results highlight the dynamic role of source locations, which can help focus surveillance and response efforts.
AU  - Menkir,TF
AU  - Chin,T
AU  - Hay,JA
AU  - Surface,ED
AU  - De,Salazar PM
AU  - Buckee,CO
AU  - Watts,A
AU  - Khan,K
AU  - Sherbo,R
AU  - Yan,AWC
AU  - Mina,MJ
AU  - Lipsitch,M
AU  - Niehus,R
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2041-1723
TI  - Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33436574
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85711
VL  - 12
ER  -
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