Imperial College London
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Dr Alexandre Strapasson

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

alexandre.strapasson Website

 
 
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Location

 

403Weeks BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@inproceedings{Bessah:2020,
author = {Bessah, E and Raji, A and Taiwo, O and Agodzo, S and Ololade, O and Strapasson, A and Larbi, I},
pages = {21--22},
publisher = {Magus Group},
title = {Extreme changes of daily rainfall and temperature patterns in a tropical sub-humid basin: A statistical downscaling assessment for the 21st century},
url = {https://magnusconferences.com/climate-change/about/past-events},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - CPAPER
AB  - Climate change has exacerbated the occurrence of extreme weather events in many regions worldwide. The objective of this study was to assess extreme temperature and rainfall variations in the Pra River Basin (a tropical sub-humid basin in Ghana), as a case-study potentially applicable to other similar regions globally. The methodology was based on the use of different climate models. Firstly, we tested the capability of the statistical downscaling model SDSM-DC to simulate past extreme climate indices for the period 1981 – 2010 (observed). We then projected temperature indices for the period 2011 – 2100 under CMIP5 RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios in the basin. Ten rainfall and nine temperature extreme indices were examined and the accuracy of SDSM-DC was evaluated with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and Percent bias. The results show that observed number of heavy precipitation days increased, whilst consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days decreased, although the trend was not significant. Moreover, observed warm and cool temperature generally showed a significant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. Performance analysis shows that SDSM-DC had a poor accuracy level in simulating rainfall indices; however, whilst simulating TX90p, TX10p, TN10p and DTR, the model was acceptable at more than 50% of the stations. Generally, TX90p showed a significant increasing trend, whereas TX10p, TN10p and DTR showed a significant decreasing trend between 2011 and 2100 under both RCP4.5 and 8.5. By 2100, under the RCP4.5 scenario, TX90p, TX10p, TN10p and DTR could increase by 0.72%, 0.36%, 0.35% and decrease 0.08°C respectively; whereas under the RCP8.5 scenario it could increase by 0.73%, 0.32%, 0.34% and decrease 0.15°C respectively. Therefore, the continuous warming trend poses threat to water resources, food security (including pest invasion, e.g. armyworms) and human health in the basin. The findings are relevant for adaptation and management
AU  - Bessah,E
AU  - Raji,A
AU  - Taiwo,O
AU  - Agodzo,S
AU  - Ololade,O
AU  - Strapasson,A
AU  - Larbi,I
EP  - 22
PB  - Magus Group
PY  - 2020///
SP  - 21
TI  - Extreme changes of daily rainfall and temperature patterns in a tropical sub-humid basin: A statistical downscaling assessment for the 21st century
UR  - https://magnusconferences.com/climate-change/about/past-events
ER  -
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