72 results found
Fan PY, Chun KP, Mijic A, et al., 2021, Quantifying land use heterogeneity on drought conditions for mitigation strategies development in the Dongjiang River Basin, China, Ecological Indicators, Vol: 129, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1470-160X
Spatially-invariant land use and cover changes (LUCC) are not suitable for managing non-stationary drought conditions. Therefore, developing a spatially varying framework for managing land resources is necessary. In this study, the Dongjiang River Basin in South China is used to exemplify the significance of spatial heterogeneity in land planning optimization for mitigating drought risks. Using ERA5 that is the 5th major atmospheric reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, we computed the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) to quantify the hydrologic drought during 1992 to 2018. Also, based on Climate Change Initiative land use product, The Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis was used to identify the most dominant land types in the same period. Then, we used the Emerging Hot Spots Analysis to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of historical LUCC and SRI. The spatially varying coefficients of Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression models were used to reveal the empirical relationships between land types and the SRI. Results indicated that rainfed cropland with herbaceous cover, mosaic tress and shrub, shrubland, and grassland were four land types having statistical correlations with drought conditions over 27 years. Moreover, since 2003, the DRB was becoming drier, and the northern areas generally experienced severer hydrologic drought than the south. More importantly, we proposed region-specific land-use strategies for drought risk reductions. At a basin scale, we recommended to 1) increase rainfed herbaceous cropland and 2) reduce mosaic tree and shrub. At a sub-basin scale, the extents of shrub and grassland were suggested to increase in the northern DRB but to reduce in the south. Region-specific land use planning, including suitable locations, scales, and strategies, will contribute to handling current ‘one-size-fits-all’ LUCC. Planners are suggested to integrate spatial characteristics int
Zhang Z, Paschalis A, Mijic A, 2021, Planning London’s green spaces in an integrated water management approach to enhance future resilience in urban stormwater control, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 597, ISSN: 0022-1694
Vegetation, as a fundamental element of urban green infrastructure, plays a vital role in mitigating urban flooding. Green infrastructure performance in mitigating floods depends on plant responses to meteorological forcing. This puts urban green infrastructure in risk under a changing climate. In this study, the resilience and efficiency of London’s green infrastructure under climate change is evaluated. The coupled water and carbon dynamics were evaluated using a mechanistic ecohydrological model forced with the new generation of 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18).It was found that despite overall reductions of runoff production in London under climate change in winter/autumn, current urban green infrastructure in London can lose its efficiency due to the elevated levels of plant water stress unless it operates in an integrated manner with the traditional grey infrastructure drainage system. Plant water stress induced mostly by changes in climate is expected to limit vegetation performance during the end of growing seasons. The negative effects of varying climatic factors on vegetation dynamics can only be partially alleviated by the positive effects of the elevated CO2 concentration level, and are highly uncertain due to the large uncertainty of climate projections.
Mijic A, 2021, Systems water management for catchment scale processes
Dobson B, Jovanovic T, Chen Y, et al., 2021, Integrated modelling to support analysis of COVID-19 impacts on London's water system and in-river water quality, Frontiers in Water, Vol: 3, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 2624-9375
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, citizens of the United Kingdom were required to stay at home for many months in 2020. In the weeks before and months following lockdown, including when it was not being enforced, citizens were advised to stay at home where possible. As a result, in a megacity such as London, where long-distance commuting is common, spatial and temporal changes to patterns of water demand are inevitable. This, in turn, may change where people’s waste is treated and ultimately impact the in-river quality of effluent receiving waters. To assess large scale impacts, such as COVID-19, at the city scale, an integrated modelling approach that captures everything between households and rivers is needed. A framework to achieve this is presented in this study and used to explore changes in water use and the associated impacts on wastewater treatment and in-river quality as a result of government and societal responses to COVID-19. Our modelling results revealed significant changes to household water consumption under a range of impact scenarios, however, they only showed significant impacts on pollutant concentrations in household wastewater were in central London. Pollutant concentrations in rivers simulated by the model were most sensitive in the tributaries of the River Thames, highlighting the vulnerability of smaller rivers and the important role that they play in diluting pollution. Modelled ammonia and phosphates were found to be the pollutants that rivers were most sensitive to because their main source in urban rivers is domestic wastewater that was significantly altered during the imposed mobility restrictions. A model evaluation showed that we can accurately validate individual model components (i.e., water demand generator) and 30emphasised need for continuous water quality measurements. Ultimately, the work provides a basis for further developments of water systems integration approaches to project changes under never-before seen scenarios.
Muhandes S, Dobson B, Mijic A, 2021, A method for adjusting design storm peakedness to reduce bias in hydraulic simulations, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management, Pages: 1-31, ISSN: 1741-7589
In the UK, decision makers use hydraulic model outputs to inform funding, connection consent, adoption of new drainage networks and planning application decisions. Current practice requires the application of design storms to calculate sewer catchment performance metrics such as flood volume, discharge rate and flood count. With flooding incidents occurring more frequently than their designs specify, hydraulic modelling outputs required by practice are questionable. The main focus of this paper is the peakedness factor (ratio of maximum to average rainfall intensity) of design storms, adjudging that this is a key contributor to model bias. Hydraulic models of two UK sewer catchments were simulated under historical storms, design storms and design storms with modified peakedness to test bias in modelling outputs and the effectiveness of peakedness modification in reducing bias. Sustainable drainage systems (Suds) were implemented at catchment scale and the betterment achieved in the modelling outputs was tested. The proposed design storm modification reduced the bias that occurs when driving hydraulic models using design storms in comparison with historical storms. It is concluded that Suds benefits are underestimated when using design rainfall because the synthetic rainfall shape prevents infiltration. Thus, Suds interventions cannot accurately be evaluated by design storms, modified or otherwise.
Mijic A, Whyte J, Fisk D, et al., 2021, The Centre for Systems Engineering and Innovation – 2030 vision and 10-year celebration
The 2030 vision of the Centre is to bring Systems Engineering and Innovation to Civil Infrastructure by changing how cross-sector infrastructure challenges are addressedin an integrated way using principles of systems engineering to maximise resilience, safety and sustainability in an increasingly complex world.We want to better understand the environmental and societal impacts of infrastructure interventions under uncertainty. This requires a change in current approaches to infrastructure systems engineering: starting from the natural environmentand its resources, encompassing societaluse of infrastructure and the supporting infrastructure assets and services.We argue for modelling that brings natural as well as built environments within the system boundaries to better understand infrastructure and to better assess sustainability. We seethe work as relevant to both the academic community and to a wide range of industry and policy applications that are working on infrastructure transition pathways towards fair, safe and sustainable society.This vision was developed through discussions between academics in preparation for the Centre for Systems Engineering and Innovation (CSEI) 10 years celebration. These rich discussions about the future of the Centre were inspired by developing themes for a celebration event, through which we have summarised the first 10 years of the Centre’s work and our vision for the future and identified six emerging research areas.
Puchol-Salort P, OKeeffe J, van Reeuwijk M, et al., 2021, An urban planning sustainability framework: systems approach to blue green urban design, Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol: 66, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2210-6707
The climate emergency and population growth are challenging water security and sustainable urban design in cities worldwide. Sustainable urban development is crucial to minimise pressures on the natural environment and on existing urban infrastructure systems, including water, energy, and land. These pressures are particularly evident in London, which is considered highly vulnerable to water shortages and floods and where there has been a historical shortage of housing. However, the impacts of urban growth on environmental management and protection are complex and difficult to evaluate. In addition, there is a disconnection between the policy and decision-making processes as to what comprises a sustainable urban development project.We present a systems-based Urban Planning Sustainability Framework (UPSUF) that integrates sustainability evaluation, design solutions and planning system process. One of the features of this master planning framework is the spatial representation of the urban development in a Geographical Information System to create an operational link between design solutions and evaluation metrics. UPSUF moves from an initial baseline scenario to a sustainable urban development design, incorporating the requirements of governance and regulatory bodies, as well as those of the end-users. Ultimately, UPSUF has the potential to facilitate partnership between the public and the private sectors.
Whyte J, Mijic A, Myers RJ, et al., 2020, A research agenda on systems approaches to infrastructure, Journal of Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, Vol: 37, Pages: 214-233, ISSN: 1029-0249
At a time of system shocks, significant underlying challenges are revealed in current approaches to delivering infrastructure, including that infrastructure users in many societies feel distant from nature. We set out a research agenda on systems approaches to infrastructure, drawing on ten years of interdisciplinary work on operating infrastructure, infrastructure interventions and lifecycles. Research insights and directions on complexity, systems integration, data-driven systems engineering, infrastructure life-cycles, and the transition towards zero pollution are summarised. This work identifies a need to better understand the natural and societal impacts of infrastructure interventions under uncertainty. We argue for a change in current approaches to infrastructure: starting from the natural environment and its resources, encompassing societal use of infrastructure and the supporting infrastructure assets and services. To support such proposed new systems approaches to infrastructure, researchers need to develop novel modelling methods, forms of model integration, and multi-criteria indicators.
De Stercke S, Chaturvedi V, Buytaert W, et al., 2020, Water-energy nexus-based scenario analysis for sustainable development of Mumbai, Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol: 134, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 1364-8152
The urban water-energy nexus sits at the intersection of the global phenomena of water scarcity, energy transitions and urbanisation. Research found that end use dominates the waterenergy nexus and that this component plays an important role in urban dynamics, but focussed on the Global North. We investigate the nexus of Mumbai and its long term resource demand. Our tool is a novel system dynamics model representing the urban water-energy nexus and takes into account characteristics such as intermittent water supply and the presence of slums. We devised scenarios around the Sustainable Development Goals and the Swachh Bharat Mission. The model shows that both can be achieved while saving on future water system infrastructure investments compared to business-as-usual. We find that also in Mumbai end use dominates the nexus. Representing end-use interactions increases expected water demand. This work indicates that globally, sustainable development of infrastructure must consider the urban water-energy nexus.
Dobson B, Mijic A, 2020, Protecting rivers by integrating supply-wastewater infrastructure planning and coordinating operational decisions, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1748-9326
Placing water quality in rivers at the centre of water infrastructure planning and management is an important objective. In response there has been a range of 'whole system' analyses. Few studies, however, consider both abstraction (water removed from rivers) and discharge (water returned) to inform the future planning of water systems. In this work we present a systems approach to analysing future water planning options where system development prioritises the water quality of the receiving river. We provide a theoretical demonstration by integrating water supply and wastewater infrastructure, and downstream river water quality, on an open-source, stylised, systems model for London, UK, at a citywide scale. We show that models which consider either supply or wastewater separately will underestimate impacts of effluent on the water quality, in some cases by amounts that would require £1 billion worth of infrastructure equivalent to mitigate. We highlight the utility of the systems approach in evaluating integrated water infrastructure planning using both socio-economic and environmental indicators. Through this approach we find unintended impacts from planning options on downstream river quality; including benefits from water demand management and rainwater harvesting, and costs from wastewater reuse. Finally, we present a novel management planning option between supply and wastewater, which we refer to as Abstraction-Effluent Dilution (AED), that is, to reduce river abstractions during high precipitation events to dilute untreated sewer spills. The AED option is found to provide up to £200 million worth of equivalent infrastructure in river quality improvements and has minimal impact on the reliability of water supply while requiring only a change in operational decision making. The results highlight that seeing our water systems differently with this holistic approach could fundamentally change the way we think about future water infrastructure plannin
Muhadi NA, Abdullah AF, Bejo SK, et al., 2020, The Use of LiDAR-Derived DEM in Flood Applications: A Review, REMOTE SENSING, Vol: 12
Muhadi NA, Abdullah AF, Bejo SK, et al., 2020, Image Segmentation Methods for Flood Monitoring System, WATER, Vol: 12
Chun KP, He Q, Fok HS, et al., 2020, Gravimetry-based water storage shifting over the China-India border area controlled by regional climate variability, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 714, ISSN: 0048-9697
The regional water storage shifting causes nonstationary spatial distribution of droughts and flooding, leading to water management challenges, environmental degradation and economic losses. The regional water storage shifting is becoming evident due to the increasing climate variability. However, the previous studies for climate drivers behind the water storage shifting are not rigorously quantified. In this study, the terrestrial water storage (TWS) spatial shifting pattern during 2002-2017 over the China-India border area (CIBA) is developed using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), suggesting that the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra basin (IGBB) was wetting while the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) was drying. Similar drying and wetting patterns were also found in the precipitation, snow depth, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and potential evaporation data. Based on our newly proposed Indian monsoon (IM) and western North Pacific monsoon (WNPM) variation indices, the water shifting pattern over the CIBA was found to be affected by the weakening of the variation of IM and WNPM through modulating the regional atmospheric circulation. The weakening of IM and WNPM variations has shown to be attributed to the decreasing temperature gradient between the CIBA and the Indian Ocean, and possibly related to increasing regional temperatures associated with the increasing global temperature. As the global warming intensifies, it is expected that the regional TWS shifting pattern over the CIBA will be further exaggerated, stressing the need of advancing water resources management for local communities in the region.
O'Keeffe J, Moulds S, Scheidegger JM, et al., 2020, Isolating the impacts of anthropogenic water use within the hydrological regime of north India, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol: 45, Pages: 1217-1228, ISSN: 0197-9337
The effects of anthropogenic water use play a significant role in determining the hydrological cycle of north India. This paper explores anthropogenic impacts within the regions’ hydrological regime by explicitly including observed human water use behaviour, irrigation infrastructure and the natural environment in the CHANSE (Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment) socio‐hydrological modelling framework. The model is constrained by observed qualitative and quantitative information collected in the study area, along with climate and socio‐economic variables from additional sources. Four separate scenarios, including business as usual (BAU, representing observed irrigation practices), groundwater irrigation only (where the influence of the canal network is removed), canal irrigation only (where all irrigation water is supplied by diverted surface water) and rainfed only (where all human interventions are removed) are used. Under BAU conditions the modelling framework closely matched observed groundwater levels. Following the removal of the canal network, which forces farmers to rely completely on groundwater for irrigation, water levels decrease, while under a canal only scenario flooding occurs. Under the rainfed only scenario, groundwater levels similar to current business as usual conditions are observed, despite much larger volumes of recharge and discharge entering and leaving the system under BAU practices. While groundwater abstraction alone may lead to aquifer depletion, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, which includes unintended contributions of canal leakage, create conditions similar to those where no human interventions are present. Here, the importance of suitable water management practices, in maintaining sustainable water resources, are shown. This may include augmenting groundwater resources through managed aquifer recharge and reducing the impacts on aquifer resources through occasional canal water use where possib
El Hattab M, Theodoropoulos G, Rong X, et al., 2020, Applying the systems approach to decompose the SuDS decision-making process for appropriate hydrologic model selection, Water, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2073-4441
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) have gained popularity over the last few decades as an effective and optimal solution for urban drainage systems to cope with continuous population growth and urban sprawl. A SuDS provides not only resilience to pluvial flooding but also multiple other benefits, ranging from amenity improvement to enhanced ecological and social well-being. SuDS modelling is used as a tool to understand these complex interactions and to inform decision makers. Major developments in SuDS modelling techniques have occurred in the last decade, with advancement from simple lumped or conceptual models to very complex fully distributed tools. Several software packages have been developed specifically to support planning and implementation of SuDS. These often require extensive amounts of data and calibration to reach an acceptable level of accuracy. However, in many cases, simple models may fulfil the aims of a stakeholder if its priorities are well understood. This work implements the soft system engineering and Analytic Network Process (ANP) approaches in a methodological framework to improve the understanding of the stakeholders within the SuDS system and their key priorities, which leads to selecting the appropriate modelling technique according to the end-use application.
Stercke SD, Chaturvedi V, Buytaert W, et al., 2020, Water-energy nexus-based scenario analysis for sustainable development of Mumbai., Environ. Model. Softw., Vol: 134, Pages: 104854-104854
Agrawal S, Chakraborty A, Karmakar N, et al., 2019, Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon (correction to vol 53, pg 3147, 2019), Climate Dynamics, Vol: 53, Pages: 6519-6519, ISSN: 0930-7575
Babovic F, Mijic A, 2019, The development of adaptation pathways for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems, Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1753-318X
Cities must adapt their drainage systems to cope with the effects of land use and climate change on growing flood risk. However, the development of robust adaptation strategies remains a challenge due to the deep uncertainty surrounding future conditions. To address this problem, an Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) approach was utilised to investigate the impacts of future rainfall with respect to increases in both depth and intensity on an urban drainage system. A set of Adaptation Pathways was generated to assess how the drainage system could be adapted using a range of infrastructure solutions. The most effective combination of adaptations to increase the system's ATP was an increase in system storage followed by green infrastructure solutions to add additional capacity to the system. The methodology enabled no‐regret adaptation by proposing a set of selected interventions that can be incrementally implemented to achieve maximal combined effect. The resulting pathways effectively communicate to decision makers how short‐term solutions allow for long‐term adaptation and sustainable development. The ATP approach proved to be an excellent tool for decision‐making that provided a structured approach for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems.
Agrawal S, Chakraborty A, Karmakar N, et al., 2019, Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, Vol: 53, Pages: 3147-3166, ISSN: 0930-7575
The decreasing trend in rainfall in the last few decades over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of northern India as observed in ground-based observations puts increasing stress on groundwater because irrigation uses up to 70% of freshwater resources. In this work, we have analyzed the effects of extensive irrigation over the Gangetic Plains on the seasonal mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon, using a general circulation model and a very high-resolution soil moisture dataset created using extensive field observations in a state-of-the-art hydrological model. We find that the winter-time (November–March) irrigation has a positive feedback on the Indian summer monsoon through large scale circulation changes. These changes are analogous to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during winter months. The effects of the positive NAO phase persist from winter to spring through widespread changes in surface conditions over western and central Asia, which makes the pre-monsoon conditions suitable for a subsequent good monsoon over India. Winter-time irrigation also resulted in a reduction of low frequency intra-seasonal variability over the Indian region during the monsoon season. However, when irrigation is practiced throughout the year, a decrease in June–September precipitation over the Gangetic Plains, significant at 95% level, is noted as compared to the no-irrigation scenario. This decrease is attributed to the increase in local soil moisture due to irrigation, which results in a southward shift of the moisture convergence zone during the active phase of monsoon, decreasing its mean and intraseasonal variability. Interestingly, these changes show a remarkable similarity to the long-term trend in observed rainfall spatial pattern and low-frequency variability. Our results suggest that with a decline in the mean summer precipitation and stressed groundwater resources in the Gangetic Plains, the water crisis could exacerbate, wi
Brown K, Mijic A, 2019, Integrating green and blue spaces into our cities: Making it happen, Publisher: Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment, Briefing Paper No 30
Urban blue-green infrastructure (BGI) is a network of nature-based featuressituated in built-up areas that form part of the urban landscape. These featuresare either based on vegetation (green), water (blue), or both. Green roofs andwalls, grassed areas, rain gardens, swales (shallow channels, or drains), trees,parks, rivers and ponds are all examples of this type of architecture. Blue-greeninfrastructure is important as a climate change mitigation and adaptation measure,and has a host of wider benefits to people and wildlife. This briefing note summarises the benefits that blue-greeninfrastructure brings to people, recent trends in the use of blueor green features in urban settings, and the perceived barriersto greater uptake in the UK and how these might be overcome.This paper also explores how thinking about the way thesefeatures fit within a wider system of natural and human factors,so-called systems thinking, can help improve the evaluation ofblue-green assets from a range of different perspectives.
Rezazadeh Helmi N, Verbeiren B, Mijic A, et al., 2019, Developing a modeling tool to allocate Low Impact Development practices in a cost-optimized method, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 573, Pages: 98-108, ISSN: 0022-1694
Nowadays there is a need to overcome the effects caused by rapid urbanization with more innovative methods. Recently, source control approaches, known as Low Impact Development (LID), are being used by urban planners to cope with water-related problems due to their cost-effectiveness and reliability. To do this, allocation of LID techniques in most suitable locations is done by introducing a new modeling tool called LID locator to the WetSpa-Urban software package and tested in the Watermaelbeek catchment situated in the Brussels capital region. In the first step, almost half of the catchment is eliminated from the implementation of LIDs by considering only pixels with high runoff. Also, by considering the sewer network behavior, the total area of high potential pixels for implementing LID is reduced to the range of 37% and 10% of the entire area of the catchment for different scenarios. In the next step, the selected area is further eliminated by use of suitable location algorithm based on size and other installation limitation of each type of LID. Then, the results are used as an input for the newly developed cost-optimization tool. In the end, the best scenario (10-year design storm with the current state of sewer network) is selected based on their performance in surface runoff volume reduction and the total cost. As a result, maximum flow and total volume at the outlet is reduced by 21 and 8% for the most cost-optimized scenario in January and February 2015. In addition to considering sewer network performance, land characteristics and LID installation limits for LID implementation, producing maps indicating the most cost-efficient locations and combinations for LIDs and visualizing them through the GUI make this tool a user-friendly product. This tool was applied to this case study in Brussels however it is applicable for other urban catchments.
El Hattab M, Mijic A, Vernon D, 2019, Optimised triangular Weir design for assessing the full-scale performance of green infrastructure, Water, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2073-4441
Conventional triangular weirs have been originally developed to measure, divert, and control surface water. However, special application of these weirs, such as for low flow measurements in full-scale monitoring of Green Infrastructure (GI) is not well investigated. Available head-discharge relationships for triangular sharp-crested weirs are only valid under a free-flow regime. Literature focusing on the V-notch weir usage for GI assessment suggests that it is necessary to calibrate the head-discharge relationship before its use. This study focuses on understanding the effects of site constraints on the measurement performance of a V-notch weir at low flow rates, and the validity of equations derived for similar applications that can be found in the literature. The variation of discharge coefficient in various flow regimes was investigated experimentally based on calibration runs covering flow rates between 0.054 l/s and 7 l/s. The results show that for 30° and 45° V-notch weirs three flow regimes can be identified. It was observed that literature equations to calculate the discharge coefficient are valid for partially-contracted triangular weir only at heads greater than vertex distance from the channel. However, for low flows that are expected to occur when estimating the full-scale performance of GI, the equations available from the literature for similar site conditions underestimated the flow rate between 85% and 17%. This emphasises the need for accurate calibration of a V-notch device under the site conditions to achieve the necessary level of accuracy in GI performance estimation. The procedure outlined in this work can be easily replicated to determine the optimal monitoring system configuration. Alternatively, if the site conditions would match those described, the computed discharge using the proposed relations, in combination with the general V-notch weir equation, provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of measurements, expands the h
Babovic F, Mijic A, 2019, Economic evaluation of adaptation pathways for an urban drainage system experiencing deep uncertainty, Water, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2073-4441
As Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty methodologies are becoming more widely utilised, there has been a growth in the use and generation of Adaptation Pathways. These are meant to convey to policy makers how short-term adaptations can act as elements of longer-term adaptation strategies. However, sets of Adaptation Pathways do not convey the individual pathway’s relative costs and benefits. To address this problem in relation to urban pluvial flooding, an economic analysis of a set of Adaptation Pathways was conducted. Initially, a methodology to conduct an economic assessment for deterministic climate change scenarios is developed. This methodology is then modified, using methods that underpin real options to assess how a pathway performs across a bundle of possible futures. This delivered information on how the performance of adaptations can vary across different climate change scenarios. By comparing the deterministic analysis to the new method, it was found that the order in which options are implemented greatly affects the financial performance of an Adaptation Pathway, even if the final combination of options is identical. The presented methodology has the potential to greatly improve decision making by informing policy makers on the potential performance of adaptation strategies being considered.
De Stercke S, Mijic A, Buytaert W, et al., 2018, Modelling the dynamic interactions between London’s water and energy systems from an end-use perspective, Applied Energy, Vol: 230, Pages: 615-626, ISSN: 0306-2619
Cities are concentrations of demand to water and energy systems that rely on resources under increasing pressure from scarcity and climate change mitigation targets. They are linked in many ways across their different components, the collection of which is termed a nexus. In industrialised countries, the residential end-use component of the urban water-energy nexus has been identified as significant. However, the effect of the end-use water and energy interdependence on urban dynamics had not been studied. In this work, a novel system dynamics model is developed with an explicit representation of the water-energy interactions at the residential end use and their influence on the demand for resources. The model includes an endogenous carbon tax based climate change mitigation policy which aims to meet carbon targets by reducing consumer demand through price. It also encompasses water resources planning with respect to system capacity and supply augmentation. Using London as a case study, we show that the inclusion of end-use interactions has a major impact on the projections of water sector requirements. In particular, future water demand per capita is lower, and less supply augmentation is needed than would be planned for without considering the interactions. We find that deep decarbonisation of electricity is necessary to maintain an acceptable quality of life while remaining within water and greenhouse gas emissions constraints. The model results show a clear need for consideration of the end-use level water-energy interactions in policy analysis. The modelling tool provides a base for this that can be adapted to the context of any industrialised country.
Shukla AK, Pathak S, Pal L, et al., 2018, Spatio-temporal assessment of annual water balance models for upper Ganga Basin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 22, Pages: 5357-5371, ISSN: 1027-5606
The upper Ganga Basin in Uttarakhand, India, hashigh hydropower potential and plays an important role in thedevelopment of the state economy. Thus, an accurate knowledge of annual water yield is of paramount importance tothis region. This paper deals with use of contemporary water yield estimation models such as the distributed IntegratedValuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST)model and the Lumped Zhang model and their validation toidentify the most suited one for water yield estimation in theupper Ganga Basin. In previous studies utilizing these models, water yield was estimated by considering a single valueof some important model parameters for the entire basin,which in fact show distributed variation at a finer (pixel)scale. Therefore, in this study, pixel-level computations areperformed to assess and ascertain the need for incorporating the spatial variation of such parameters in model applications. To validate the findings, the observed sub-basin discharge data are analyzed with the computed water yield for4 decades, i.e., 1980, 1990, 2001 and 2015. The results obtained are in good agreement with the water yield obtained atthe pixel scale.
Babovic F, Mijic A, Madani K, 2018, Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change, Urban Water Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 552-560, ISSN: 1573-062X
Urbanisation and climate change are augmenting the uncertainty surrounding the future state of the world’s water resource and are resulting in cities experiencing growing levels of risk of pluvial flooding. Drainage infrastructure is generally built using the paradigm of ‘predict and optimise’; however, this approach fails to account for erroneous predictions. This can result in drainage systems delivering insufficient levels of flood protection. Irrespective of these uncertainties new drainage systems must be built, and existing ones adapted in such a way that they remain reliable. This work presents a critical analysis of the drivers of change of urban pluvial flooding and the uncertainties surrounding urban flood planning; thereby highlighting the shortcomings of current planning methodologies. Different Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) frameworks are then explored and it is shown that they offer an improved ability to design reliable urban flood systems regardless of highly uncertain future conditions.
Helmi NR, Verbeiren B, Hattab ME, et al., 2018, Developing a new modelling tool to allocate low impact development practices in a cost optimized method, International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Pages: 108-114, ISSN: 1865-3529
Nowadays there is a need to overcome the effects caused by rapid urbanisation with more innovative methods. Recently, source control approaches, known as Low Impact Development (LID), are being used by urban planners to cope with water related problems and any other environmental issues due to their cost-effectiveness and reliability. To meet the needs of decision makers, the effects of these practices should be analysed at catchment scale. To do this, allocation of LID techniques in most suitable locations is essential. In this research a new modelling tool called LID locator is added to the WetSpa-Urban software package for more accurate placement of these techniques. The maximum area that can be covered by different types of LIDs are defined by finding the potential areas prone to generate runoff in combination with suitability maps calculated based on size limitation and implementation restriction for each LID measures. Then, the new cost-optimization tool is added through new procedure. This study is testified in the Watermaelbeek catchment situated in Brussels capital region.
Shukla AK, Ojha CSP, Mijic A, et al., 2018, Population growth, land use and land cover transformations, and water quality nexus in the Upper Ganga River basin, HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 22, Pages: 4745-4770, ISSN: 1027-5606
The Upper Ganga River basin is socioeconomically the most important river basin in India and is highly stressed in terms of water resources due to uncontrolled land use and land cover (LULC) activities. This study presents a comprehensive set of analyses to evaluate the population growth, LULC transformations, and water quality nexus for sustainable development in this river basin. The study was conducted at two spatial scales: basin scale and district scale. First, population data were analyzed statistically to study demographic changes, followed by LULC change detection over the period of February–March 2001 to 2012 (Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data) using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) techniques. Trends and spatiotemporal variations in monthly water quality parameters, viz. biological oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO, measured in percentage), fluoride (F), hardness (CaCO3), pH, total coliform bacteria and turbidity, were studied using the Mann–Kendall rank test and an overall index of pollution (OIP) developed specifically for this region, respectively. A relationship was deciphered between LULC classes and OIP using multivariate techniques, viz. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression. From the results, it was observed that population has increased in the river basin. Therefore, significant and characteristic LULC changes were observed. The river became polluted in both rural and urban areas. In rural areas, pollution is due to agricultural practices, mainly fertilizers, whereas in urban areas it is mainly contributed from domestic and industrial wastes. Water quality degradation has occurred in the river basin, and consequently the health status of the river has also changed from acceptable to slightly polluted in urban areas. Multiple linear regression models developed for the Upper Ganga River basin could successfully predict status of the water quality, i.e., OIP, using LULC clas
El Hattab M, Mijic A, 2018, Adaptation of SuDS Modelling Complexity to End-Use Application, 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Moulds S, Buytaert W, Mijic A, 2018, A spatio-temporal land use and land cover reconstruction for India from 1960-2010, Scientific Data, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2052-4463
In recent decades India has undergone substantial land use/land cover change as a result of population growth and economic development. Historical land use/land cover maps are necessary to quantify the impact of change at global and regional scales, improve predictions about the quantity and location of future change and support planning decisions. Here, a regional land use change model driven by district-level inventory data is used to generate an annual time series of high-resolution gridded land use/land cover maps for the Indian subcontinent between 1960-2010. The allocation procedure is based on statistical analysis of the relationship between contemporary land use/land cover and various spatially explicit covariates. A comparison of the simulated map for 1985 against remotely-sensed land use/land cover maps for 1985 and 2005 reveals considerable discrepancy between the simulated and remote sensing maps, much of which arises due to differences in the amount of land use/land cover change between the inventory data and the remote sensing maps.
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