52 results found
Agrawal S, Chakraborty A, Karmakar N, et al., 2019, Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon (vol 53, pg 3147, 2019), CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 53, Pages: 6519-6519, ISSN: 0930-7575
Babovic F, Mijic A, 2019, The development of adaptation pathways for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems, Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1753-318X
Cities must adapt their drainage systems to cope with the effects of land use and climate change on growing flood risk. However, the development of robust adaptation strategies remains a challenge due to the deep uncertainty surrounding future conditions. To address this problem, an Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP) approach was utilised to investigate the impacts of future rainfall with respect to increases in both depth and intensity on an urban drainage system. A set of Adaptation Pathways was generated to assess how the drainage system could be adapted using a range of infrastructure solutions. The most effective combination of adaptations to increase the system's ATP was an increase in system storage followed by green infrastructure solutions to add additional capacity to the system. The methodology enabled no‐regret adaptation by proposing a set of selected interventions that can be incrementally implemented to achieve maximal combined effect. The resulting pathways effectively communicate to decision makers how short‐term solutions allow for long‐term adaptation and sustainable development. The ATP approach proved to be an excellent tool for decision‐making that provided a structured approach for the long‐term planning of urban drainage systems.
Agrawal S, Chakraborty A, Karmakar N, et al., 2019, Effects of winter and summer-time irrigation over Gangetic Plain on the mean and intra-seasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, Vol: 53, Pages: 3147-3166, ISSN: 0930-7575
The decreasing trend in rainfall in the last few decades over the Indo-Gangetic Plains of northern India as observed in ground-based observations puts increasing stress on groundwater because irrigation uses up to 70% of freshwater resources. In this work, we have analyzed the effects of extensive irrigation over the Gangetic Plains on the seasonal mean and intra-seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon, using a general circulation model and a very high-resolution soil moisture dataset created using extensive field observations in a state-of-the-art hydrological model. We find that the winter-time (November–March) irrigation has a positive feedback on the Indian summer monsoon through large scale circulation changes. These changes are analogous to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during winter months. The effects of the positive NAO phase persist from winter to spring through widespread changes in surface conditions over western and central Asia, which makes the pre-monsoon conditions suitable for a subsequent good monsoon over India. Winter-time irrigation also resulted in a reduction of low frequency intra-seasonal variability over the Indian region during the monsoon season. However, when irrigation is practiced throughout the year, a decrease in June–September precipitation over the Gangetic Plains, significant at 95% level, is noted as compared to the no-irrigation scenario. This decrease is attributed to the increase in local soil moisture due to irrigation, which results in a southward shift of the moisture convergence zone during the active phase of monsoon, decreasing its mean and intraseasonal variability. Interestingly, these changes show a remarkable similarity to the long-term trend in observed rainfall spatial pattern and low-frequency variability. Our results suggest that with a decline in the mean summer precipitation and stressed groundwater resources in the Gangetic Plains, the water crisis could exacerbate, wi
Rezazadeh Helmi N, Verbeiren B, Mijic A, et al., 2019, Developing a modeling tool to allocate Low Impact Development practices in a cost-optimized method, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 573, Pages: 98-108, ISSN: 0022-1694
Nowadays there is a need to overcome the effects caused by rapid urbanization with more innovative methods. Recently, source control approaches, known as Low Impact Development (LID), are being used by urban planners to cope with water-related problems due to their cost-effectiveness and reliability. To do this, allocation of LID techniques in most suitable locations is done by introducing a new modeling tool called LID locator to the WetSpa-Urban software package and tested in the Watermaelbeek catchment situated in the Brussels capital region. In the first step, almost half of the catchment is eliminated from the implementation of LIDs by considering only pixels with high runoff. Also, by considering the sewer network behavior, the total area of high potential pixels for implementing LID is reduced to the range of 37% and 10% of the entire area of the catchment for different scenarios. In the next step, the selected area is further eliminated by use of suitable location algorithm based on size and other installation limitation of each type of LID. Then, the results are used as an input for the newly developed cost-optimization tool. In the end, the best scenario (10-year design storm with the current state of sewer network) is selected based on their performance in surface runoff volume reduction and the total cost. As a result, maximum flow and total volume at the outlet is reduced by 21 and 8% for the most cost-optimized scenario in January and February 2015. In addition to considering sewer network performance, land characteristics and LID installation limits for LID implementation, producing maps indicating the most cost-efficient locations and combinations for LIDs and visualizing them through the GUI make this tool a user-friendly product. This tool was applied to this case study in Brussels however it is applicable for other urban catchments.
El Hattab M, Mijic A, Vernon D, 2019, Optimised triangular Weir design for assessing the full-scale performance of green infrastructure, Water, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2073-4441
Conventional triangular weirs have been originally developed to measure, divert, and control surface water. However, special application of these weirs, such as for low flow measurements in full-scale monitoring of Green Infrastructure (GI) is not well investigated. Available head-discharge relationships for triangular sharp-crested weirs are only valid under a free-flow regime. Literature focusing on the V-notch weir usage for GI assessment suggests that it is necessary to calibrate the head-discharge relationship before its use. This study focuses on understanding the effects of site constraints on the measurement performance of a V-notch weir at low flow rates, and the validity of equations derived for similar applications that can be found in the literature. The variation of discharge coefficient in various flow regimes was investigated experimentally based on calibration runs covering flow rates between 0.054 l/s and 7 l/s. The results show that for 30° and 45° V-notch weirs three flow regimes can be identified. It was observed that literature equations to calculate the discharge coefficient are valid for partially-contracted triangular weir only at heads greater than vertex distance from the channel. However, for low flows that are expected to occur when estimating the full-scale performance of GI, the equations available from the literature for similar site conditions underestimated the flow rate between 85% and 17%. This emphasises the need for accurate calibration of a V-notch device under the site conditions to achieve the necessary level of accuracy in GI performance estimation. The procedure outlined in this work can be easily replicated to determine the optimal monitoring system configuration. Alternatively, if the site conditions would match those described, the computed discharge using the proposed relations, in combination with the general V-notch weir equation, provides a significant improvement in the accuracy of measurements, expands the h
Babovic F, Mijic A, 2019, Economic evaluation of adaptation pathways for an urban drainage system experiencing deep uncertainty, Water, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2073-4441
As Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty methodologies are becoming more widely utilised, there has been a growth in the use and generation of Adaptation Pathways. These are meant to convey to policy makers how short-term adaptations can act as elements of longer-term adaptation strategies. However, sets of Adaptation Pathways do not convey the individual pathway’s relative costs and benefits. To address this problem in relation to urban pluvial flooding, an economic analysis of a set of Adaptation Pathways was conducted. Initially, a methodology to conduct an economic assessment for deterministic climate change scenarios is developed. This methodology is then modified, using methods that underpin real options to assess how a pathway performs across a bundle of possible futures. This delivered information on how the performance of adaptations can vary across different climate change scenarios. By comparing the deterministic analysis to the new method, it was found that the order in which options are implemented greatly affects the financial performance of an Adaptation Pathway, even if the final combination of options is identical. The presented methodology has the potential to greatly improve decision making by informing policy makers on the potential performance of adaptation strategies being considered.
De Stercke S, Mijic A, Buytaert W, et al., 2018, Modelling the dynamic interactions between London’s water and energy systems from an end-use perspective, Applied Energy, Vol: 230, Pages: 615-626, ISSN: 0306-2619
Cities are concentrations of demand to water and energy systems that rely on resources under increasing pressure from scarcity and climate change mitigation targets. They are linked in many ways across their different components, the collection of which is termed a nexus. In industrialised countries, the residential end-use component of the urban water-energy nexus has been identified as significant. However, the effect of the end-use water and energy interdependence on urban dynamics had not been studied. In this work, a novel system dynamics model is developed with an explicit representation of the water-energy interactions at the residential end use and their influence on the demand for resources. The model includes an endogenous carbon tax based climate change mitigation policy which aims to meet carbon targets by reducing consumer demand through price. It also encompasses water resources planning with respect to system capacity and supply augmentation. Using London as a case study, we show that the inclusion of end-use interactions has a major impact on the projections of water sector requirements. In particular, future water demand per capita is lower, and less supply augmentation is needed than would be planned for without considering the interactions. We find that deep decarbonisation of electricity is necessary to maintain an acceptable quality of life while remaining within water and greenhouse gas emissions constraints. The model results show a clear need for consideration of the end-use level water-energy interactions in policy analysis. The modelling tool provides a base for this that can be adapted to the context of any industrialised country.
Shukla AK, Pathak S, Pal L, et al., 2018, Spatio-temporal assessment of annual water balance models for upper Ganga Basin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 22, Pages: 5357-5371, ISSN: 1027-5606
The upper Ganga Basin in Uttarakhand, India, hashigh hydropower potential and plays an important role in thedevelopment of the state economy. Thus, an accurate knowledge of annual water yield is of paramount importance tothis region. This paper deals with use of contemporary water yield estimation models such as the distributed IntegratedValuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST)model and the Lumped Zhang model and their validation toidentify the most suited one for water yield estimation in theupper Ganga Basin. In previous studies utilizing these models, water yield was estimated by considering a single valueof some important model parameters for the entire basin,which in fact show distributed variation at a finer (pixel)scale. Therefore, in this study, pixel-level computations areperformed to assess and ascertain the need for incorporating the spatial variation of such parameters in model applications. To validate the findings, the observed sub-basin discharge data are analyzed with the computed water yield for4 decades, i.e., 1980, 1990, 2001 and 2015. The results obtained are in good agreement with the water yield obtained atthe pixel scale.
Babovic F, Mijic A, Madani K, 2018, Decision making under deep uncertainty for adapting urban drainage systems to change, Urban Water Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 552-560, ISSN: 1573-062X
Urbanisation and climate change are augmenting the uncertainty surrounding the future state of the world’s water resource and are resulting in cities experiencing growing levels of risk of pluvial flooding. Drainage infrastructure is generally built using the paradigm of ‘predict and optimise’; however, this approach fails to account for erroneous predictions. This can result in drainage systems delivering insufficient levels of flood protection. Irrespective of these uncertainties new drainage systems must be built, and existing ones adapted in such a way that they remain reliable. This work presents a critical analysis of the drivers of change of urban pluvial flooding and the uncertainties surrounding urban flood planning; thereby highlighting the shortcomings of current planning methodologies. Different Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) frameworks are then explored and it is shown that they offer an improved ability to design reliable urban flood systems regardless of highly uncertain future conditions.
Helmi NR, Verbeiren B, Hattab ME, et al., 2018, Developing a new modelling tool to allocate low impact development practices in a cost optimized method, International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling, Publisher: Springer International Publishing, Pages: 108-114, ISSN: 1865-3529
Nowadays there is a need to overcome the effects caused by rapid urbanisation with more innovative methods. Recently, source control approaches, known as Low Impact Development (LID), are being used by urban planners to cope with water related problems and any other environmental issues due to their cost-effectiveness and reliability. To meet the needs of decision makers, the effects of these practices should be analysed at catchment scale. To do this, allocation of LID techniques in most suitable locations is essential. In this research a new modelling tool called LID locator is added to the WetSpa-Urban software package for more accurate placement of these techniques. The maximum area that can be covered by different types of LIDs are defined by finding the potential areas prone to generate runoff in combination with suitability maps calculated based on size limitation and implementation restriction for each LID measures. Then, the new cost-optimization tool is added through new procedure. This study is testified in the Watermaelbeek catchment situated in Brussels capital region.
Shukla AK, Ojha CSP, Mijic A, et al., 2018, Population growth, land use and land cover transformations, and water quality nexus in the Upper Ganga River basin, HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, Vol: 22, Pages: 4745-4770, ISSN: 1027-5606
The Upper Ganga River basin is socioeconomically the most important river basin in India and is highly stressed in terms of water resources due to uncontrolled land use and land cover (LULC) activities. This study presents a comprehensive set of analyses to evaluate the population growth, LULC transformations, and water quality nexus for sustainable development in this river basin. The study was conducted at two spatial scales: basin scale and district scale. First, population data were analyzed statistically to study demographic changes, followed by LULC change detection over the period of February–March 2001 to 2012 (Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data) using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) techniques. Trends and spatiotemporal variations in monthly water quality parameters, viz. biological oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO, measured in percentage), fluoride (F), hardness (CaCO3), pH, total coliform bacteria and turbidity, were studied using the Mann–Kendall rank test and an overall index of pollution (OIP) developed specifically for this region, respectively. A relationship was deciphered between LULC classes and OIP using multivariate techniques, viz. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression. From the results, it was observed that population has increased in the river basin. Therefore, significant and characteristic LULC changes were observed. The river became polluted in both rural and urban areas. In rural areas, pollution is due to agricultural practices, mainly fertilizers, whereas in urban areas it is mainly contributed from domestic and industrial wastes. Water quality degradation has occurred in the river basin, and consequently the health status of the river has also changed from acceptable to slightly polluted in urban areas. Multiple linear regression models developed for the Upper Ganga River basin could successfully predict status of the water quality, i.e., OIP, using LULC clas
El Hattab M, Mijic A, Adaptation of SuDS Modelling Complexity to End-Use Application, 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling
Moulds S, Buytaert W, Mijic A, 2018, A spatio-temporal land use and land cover reconstruction for India from 1960-2010, Scientific Data, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2052-4463
In recent decades India has undergone substantial land use/land cover change as a result of population growth and economic development. Historical land use/land cover maps are necessary to quantify the impact of change at global and regional scales, improve predictions about the quantity and location of future change and support planning decisions. Here, a regional land use change model driven by district-level inventory data is used to generate an annual time series of high-resolution gridded land use/land cover maps for the Indian subcontinent between 1960-2010. The allocation procedure is based on statistical analysis of the relationship between contemporary land use/land cover and various spatially explicit covariates. A comparison of the simulated map for 1985 against remotely-sensed land use/land cover maps for 1985 and 2005 reveals considerable discrepancy between the simulated and remote sensing maps, much of which arises due to differences in the amount of land use/land cover change between the inventory data and the remote sensing maps.
O'Keeffe J, Moulds S, Bergin E, et al., 2018, Including farmer irrigation behavior in a socio‐hydrological modelling framework with application in north India, Water Resources Research, Vol: 54, Pages: 4849-4866, ISSN: 0043-1397
Understanding water user behavior and its potential outcomes is important for the development of suitable water resource management options. Computational models are commonly used to assist water resource management decision making; however, while natural processes are increasingly well modeled, the inclusion of human behavior has lagged behind. Improved representation of irrigation water user behavior within models can provide more accurate and relevant information for irrigation management in the agricultural sector. This paper outlines a model that conceptualizes and proceduralizes observed farmer irrigation practices, highlighting impacts and interactions between the environment and behavior. It is developed using a bottom‐up approach, informed through field experience and farmer interaction in the state of Uttar Pradesh, northern India. Observed processes and dynamics were translated into parsimonious algorithms, which represent field conditions and provide a tool for policy analysis and water management. The modeling framework is applied to four districts in Uttar Pradesh and used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in climate and irrigation behavior on water resources and farmer livelihood. Results suggest changes in water user behavior could have a greater impact on water resources, crop yields, and farmer income than changes in future climate. In addition, increased abstraction may be sustainable but its viability varies across the study region. By simulating the feedbacks and interactions between the behavior of water users, irrigation officials and agricultural practices, this work highlights the importance of directly including water user behavior in policy making and operational tools to achieve water and livelihood security.Publication cover imageEarly ViewOnline Version of Record before inclusion in an issueThis article also appears in:Socio-hydrology: Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Coupled Human-Water Systems
Babovic F, Babovic V, Mijic A, 2018, Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure, International Journal of Water Resources Development, Vol: 34, Pages: 499-509, ISSN: 0790-0627
Antifragility is a system property that results in systems becoming increasingly resistant to external shocks by being exposed to them. These systems have the counter-intuitive property of benefiting from uncertain conditions. This paper presents one of the first known applications of antifragility to water infrastructure systems and outlines the development of antifragility at the city scale through the use of local governance, data collection and a bimodal strategy for infrastructure development. The systems architecture presented results in a management paradigm that can deliver reliable water systems in the face of highly uncertain future conditions.
El Hattab M, Vernon D, Mijic A, 2017, Performance evaluation of retrofitted low impact development practices in urban environments: a case study from London, UK, International Conference on Sustainable Infrastructure, Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers, Pages: 282-294
Low impact development practices (LID), or what are known as sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDS) in the U.K., are expected to have a synergetic effect with the existing infrastructure to mitigate urban storm-water flooding. Designing and implementing effective LID practices require reliable full-scale data about their performance in different applications over an extended period of time; however, relatively few examples of LID practices have been monitored to provide such information. This study developed an innovative micro-monitoring system to assess the performance of porous pavement and rain gardens as retrofitting technologies. The system includes the installation of a V-notch weir at the outlet of each LID device to provide an accurate and reliable quantification of a wide range of discharges. In addition, a low flow sensor is installed downstream to check the readings. Extensive laboratory calibrations under different flows depicting the exact site conditions were performed. The micro-monitoring system is well suited for high-resolution temporal monitoring and enables accurate long-term evaluation of LID components’ performance.
Bozovic R, Maksimovic C, Mijic A, et al., 2017, Blue Green Solutions. A Systems Approach to Sustainable and Cost-Effective Urban Development
This guide presents an innovative framework to systematically unlock the multiple benefits of city natural infrastructure; thus producing resilient, sustainable and cost-effective solutions. The framework is applicable at a building, neighbourhood and city-scale and is suitable both for new and retrofit developments.
Ossa-Moreno J, Smith KM, Mijic A, 2016, Economic analysis of wider benefits to facilitate SuDS uptake in London, UK, Sustainable Cities and Society, Vol: 28, Pages: 411-419, ISSN: 2210-6707
Urban water management via Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) has been successfully applied in cities worldwide. This infrastructure has proven to be a cost efficient solution to manage flood risks whilst also delivering wider benefits. Despite their technical performance, large-scale SuDS uptake in many places has been slow, mostly due to reasons beyond the engineering realm. This is the case of England and Wales, where the implementation of SuDS has not reached its full potential. This paper investigates the strategic role of SuDS retrofit in managing environmental risks to urban infrastructure at a catchment level, through an economic appraisal of all benefits (i.e. flood reduction and wider benefits). The Decoy Brook catchment in London, UK, was used as a case study. Average Annual Benefits were used to monetise the value of SuDS in reducing surface flood risk, whilst a Value Transfer approach was used to appraise wider benefits. It was found that by including the latter, their economic feasibility improves considerably. This paper also shows how to split the investment amongst multiple stakeholders, by highlighting the benefits each one derives. Finally, recommendations regarding incentives and policies to enhance the uptake of SuDS are given. The proposed methodology for SuDS mapping and economic appraisal in the planning phase can be used in cities worldwide, as long as general principles are adapted to local contexts.
O'Keeffe J, Buytaert W, Mijic A, et al., 2016, The use of semi-structured interviews for the characterisation of farmer irrigation practices, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 20, Pages: 1911-1924, ISSN: 1607-7938
Generating information on the behaviours, characteristics and drivers of users, as well on the resource itself, is vital in developing sustainable and realistic water security options. In this paper we present a methodology for collecting qualitative and quantitative data on water use practices through semi-structured interviews. This approach facilitates the collection of detailed information on actors' decisions in a convenient and cost-effective manner. The interview is organised around a topic guide, which helps lead the conversation in a standardised way while allowing sufficient opportunity to identify relevant issues previously unknown to the researcher. In addition, semi-structured interviews can be used to obtain certain types of quantitative data. While not as accurate as direct measurements, it can provide useful information on local practices and farmers' insights. We present an application of the methodology on two districts in the State of Uttar Pradesh in North India. By means of 100 farmer interviews, information was collected on various aspects of irrigation practices, including irrigation water volumes, irrigation cost, water source and their spatial variability. A statistical analysis of the information, along with some data visualisation is also presented, which highlights a significant variation in irrigation practices both within and between the districts. Our application shows that semi-structured interviews are an effective and efficient method of collecting both qualitative and quantitative information for the assessment of drivers, behaviours and their outcomes in a data scarce region. The collection of this type of data could significantly improve insight on water resources, leading to more realistic management options and increased water security in the future.
McMillan H, Montanari A, Cudennec C, et al., 2016, Panta Rhei 2013-2015: global perspectives on hydrology, society and change, Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, Vol: 61, Pages: 1174-1191, ISSN: 0262-6667
In 2013, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) launched the hydrological decade 2013–2022 with the theme “Panta Rhei: Change in Hydrology and Society”. The decade recognizes the urgency of hydrological research to understand and predict the interactions of society and water, to support sustainable water resource use under changing climatic and environmental conditions. This paper reports on the first Panta Rhei biennium 2013–2015, providing a comprehensive resource that describes the scope and direction of Panta Rhei. We bring together the knowledge of all the Panta Rhei working groups, to summarize the most pressing research questions and how the hydrological community is progressing towards those goals. We draw out interconnections between different strands of research, and reflect on the need to take a global view on hydrology in the current era of human impacts and environmental change. Finally, we look back to the six driving science questions identified at the outset of Panta Rhei, to quantify progress towards those aims.
Pina RD, Ochoa Rodriguez S, Simões NE, et al., 2016, Semi- vs. Fully-Distributed Urban Stormwater Models: Model Set Up and Comparison with Two Real Case Studies, Water, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2073-4441
Urban stormwater models can be semi-distributed (SD) or fully distributed (FD). SD models are based on subcatchment units with various land use types, where rainfall is applied and runoff volumes are estimated and routed. FD models are based on the two dimensional (2D) discretization of the overland surface, which has a finer resolution with each grid-cell representing one land use type, where runoff volumes are estimated and directly routed by the 2D overland flow module. While SD models have been commonly applied in urban stormwater modeling, FD models are generally more detailed and theoretically more realistic. This paper presents a comparison between SD and FD models using two case studies in Coimbra (Portugal) and London (UK). To enable direct comparison between SD and FD setups, a model-building process is proposed and a novel sewer inlet representation is applied. SD and FD modeling results are compared against observed records in sewers and photographic records of flood events. The results suggest that FD models are more sensitive to surface storage parameters and require higher detail of the sewer network representation.
Moulds S, Buytaert W, Mijic A, 2015, An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 8, Pages: 3215-3229, ISSN: 1991-9603
We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.
Paterson W, Rushforth R, Ruddell BL, et al., 2015, Water Footprint of Cities: A Review and Suggestions for Future Research, SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 7, Pages: 8461-8490, ISSN: 2071-1050
Moulds SC, Buytaert W, Mijic A, 2015, An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0), Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 8, Pages: 3359-3402, ISSN: 1991-9603
Tsarouchi GM, Buytaert W, Mijic A, 2014, Coupling a land-surface model with a crop growth model to improve ET flux estimations in the Upper Ganges basin, India, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., Vol: 18, Pages: 4223-4238
Mijic A, LaForce TC, Muggeridge AH, 2014, CO2 injectivity in saline aquifers: the impact of non-Darcy flow, phase miscibility and gas compressibility, Water Resources Research
Tsarouchi GM, Mijic A, Moulds S, et al., 2014, Historical and future land-cover changes in the Upper Ganges basin of India, International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol: 35, Pages: 3150-3176
The green revolution represents one of the greatest environmental changes in India over the last century. The Upper Ganges (UG) basin is experiencing rapid rates of change of land cover and irrigation practices. In this study, we investigated the historical rate of change and created future scenario projections by means of 30 m-resolution multi-temporal Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data of the UG basin. Post-classification change analysis methods were applied to Landsat images in order to detect and quantify land-cover changes in the UG basin. Subsequently, Markov chain analysis was applied to project future scenarios of land-cover change. Fifteen different scenarios were generated based on historic land-cover change. These scenarios diverged in terms of future projections, highlighting the dynamic nature of the changes. This study has shown that between the years 1984 and 2010 the main land-cover change trends are conversion from shrubs to forest (+4.7%), urbanization (+5.8%), agricultural expansion (+1.3%), and loss of barren land (–9.5%). The land-cover change patterns in the UG basin were mapped and quantified, showing the capability of Landsat data in providing accurate land-cover maps. These results, in combination with those derived from the Markov model, provide the necessary evidence base to support regional land-use planning and develop future-proof water resource management strategies.
LaForce T, Mijic A, Ennis-King J, et al., 2014, Semi-analytical solutions for nonisothermal fluid injection including heat loss from the reservoir: Part 2. Pressure and stress, Advances in Water Resources
In this work semi-analytical solutions for saturation, temperature, pressure and in situ reservoir stress are found for immiscible nonisothermal injection into a radial porous medium. A model for advection-dominated, nonisothermal, two-phase flow from a previous work is used to estimate the reservoir pressure and stress that result from injection of cold CO2. Flow is assumed to be one-dimensional and purely advective, while temperature has radial advection in the reservoir and transverse diffusion into the surrounding media. A simplified thermal solution is developed to allow for easier analysis of the reservoir stress. Two pressure models are presented, one which requires numerical integration of the pressure in the two-phase region, and one which is fully analytical, but simplifies the pressure profile. Two models are used to calculate reservoir stress, one which uses the full pressure and temperature profiles and must be numerically integrated, and one which uses the simplified models and has a closed-form analytical solution. The resulting radial and tangential (hoop) stress profiles in the reservoir are compared and it is shown that the simplified model is adequate for estimating the reservoir stresses. The impact of outer boundary conditions on reservoir pressure and stresses are also explored.
Mijic A, LaForce TC, 2012, Spatially varying fractional flow in radial CO2-brine displacement (vol 48, W09503, 2012), WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, Vol: 48, ISSN: 0043-1397
Mijic A, LaForce T, Muggeridge A, 2012, Non-Darcy CO2-brine Displacement with Spatially Varying Flux: Effects on Near-wellbore Permeability, ECMOR XIII
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