Imperial College London

Professor Anthony Gordon

Faculty of MedicineDepartment of Surgery & Cancer

Chair in Anaesthesia and Critical Care
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3312 6328anthony.gordon

 
 
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Location

 

ICUQueen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Wing (QEQM)St Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Santhakumaran:2019:10.1186/s13054-019-2446-1,
author = {Santhakumaran, S and Gordon, AC and Prevost, A and O'Kane, C and McAuley, DF and Shankar-Hari, M},
doi = {10.1186/s13054-019-2446-1},
journal = {Critical Care},
title = {Heterogeneity of treatment effect by baseline risk of mortality in critically ill patients: re-analysis of three recent sepsis and ARDS randomised controlled trials},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13054-019-2446-1},
volume = {23},
year = {2019}
}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB - BackgroundRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) enrolling patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) generate heterogeneous trial populations. Non-random variation in the treatment effect of an intervention due to differences in the baseline risk of death between patients in a population represents one form of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). We assessed whether HTE in two sepsis and one ARDS RCTs could explain indeterminate trial results and inform future trial design.MethodsWe assessed HTE for vasopressin, hydrocortisone and levosimendan in sepsis and simvastatin in ARDS patients, on 28-day mortality, using the total Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score as the baseline risk measurement, comparing above (high) and below (low) the median score. Secondary risk measures were the acute physiology component of APACHE II and predicted risk of mortality using the APACHE II score. HTE was quantified both in additive (difference in risk difference (RD)) and multiplicative (ratio of relative risks (RR)) scales using estimated treatment differences from a logistic regression model with treatment risk as the interaction term.ResultsThe ratio of the odds of death in the highest APACHE II quartile was 4.9 to 7.4 times compared to the lowest quartile, across the three trials. We did not observe HTE for vasopressin, hydrocortisone and levosimendan in the two sepsis trials. In the HARP-2 trial, simvastatin reduced mortality in the low APACHE II group and increased mortality in the high APACHE II group (difference in RD = 0.34 (0.12, 0.55) (p = 0.02); ratio of RR 3.57 (1.77, 7.17) (p < 0.001). The HTE patterns were inconsistent across the secondary risk measures. The sensitivity analyses of HTE effects for vasopressin, hydrocortisone and levosimendan were consistent with the main analyses and attenuated for simvastatin.ConclusionsWe assessed HTE in three recent ICU RCTs, using m
AU - Santhakumaran,S
AU - Gordon,AC
AU - Prevost,A
AU - O'Kane,C
AU - McAuley,DF
AU - Shankar-Hari,M
DO - 10.1186/s13054-019-2446-1
PY - 2019///
SN - 1364-8535
TI - Heterogeneity of treatment effect by baseline risk of mortality in critically ill patients: re-analysis of three recent sepsis and ARDS randomised controlled trials
T2 - Critical Care
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13054-019-2446-1
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/70223
VL - 23
ER -