Imperial College London

Professor SirBrianHoskins

Faculty of Natural SciencesThe Grantham Institute for Climate Change

Visiting Professor (Chair of Grantham Institute)
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9667b.hoskins

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Gosia Gayer +44 (0)20 7594 9666

 
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Location

 

Electrical EngineeringSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

248 results found

Sherwood S, Hoskins B, 2021, Clarion call from climate panel, SCIENCE, Vol: 373, Pages: 719-719, ISSN: 0036-8075

Journal article

Hoskins B, 2021, Reginald Sutcliffe and the Invention of Modern Weather Systems Science, WEATHER, Vol: 76, Pages: 275-276, ISSN: 0043-1656

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Yang G-Y, 2021, The Detailed Dynamics of the Hadley Cell. Part II: December-February, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 34, Pages: 805-823, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Tamarin-Brodsky T, Hodges K, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TGet al., 2020, Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Vol: 13, Pages: 414-+, ISSN: 1752-0894

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Yang G-Y, Fonseca RM, 2020, The detailed dynamics of the June-August Hadley Cell, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 557-575, ISSN: 0035-9009

Journal article

Hartung K, Shepherd TG, Hoskins BJ, Methven J, Svensson Get al., 2019, Diagnosing topographic forcing in an atmospheric dataset: The case of the North American Cordillera, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 314-326, ISSN: 0035-9009

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI, 2019, The annual cycle of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. Part II: Regional detail (vol 32, pg 1761, 2019), JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 32, Pages: 5701-5702, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI, 2019, The Annual Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. Part II: Regional Detail, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 32, Pages: 1761-1775, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Hodges KI, 2019, The Annual Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. Part I: Seasons, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 32, Pages: 1743-1760, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Tamarin-Brodsky T, Hodges K, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TGet al., 2019, A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and Its Response to Climate Change, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 32, Pages: 1707-1724, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Boers N, Goswami B, Rheinwalt A, Bookhagen B, Hoskins B, Kurths Jet al., 2019, Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections, NATURE, Vol: 566, Pages: 373-+, ISSN: 0028-0836

Journal article

Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Hoskins BJ, Brayshaw DJ, Smith DM, Dunstone N, Stringer N, Bett PEet al., 2019, Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Lee RW, Woollings TJ, Hoskins BJ, Williams KD, O'Reilly CH, Masato Get al., 2018, Impact of Gulf Stream SST biases on the global atmospheric circulation, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 51, Pages: 3369-3387, ISSN: 0930-7575

Journal article

Yang G-Y, Methven J, Woolnough S, Hodges K, Hoskins Bet al., 2018, Linking African Easterly Wave Activity with Equatorial Waves and the Influence of Rossby Waves from the Southern Hemisphere, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, Vol: 75, Pages: 1783-1809, ISSN: 0022-4928

Journal article

Woollings T, Barnes E, Hoskins B, Kwon Y-O, Lee RW, Li C, Madonna E, McGraw M, Parker T, Parker T, Rodrigues R, Spensberger C, Williams Ket al., 2018, Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 31, Pages: 1297-1314, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Thornton HE, Scaife AA, Hoskins BJ, Brayshaw DJet al., 2017, The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Yang G-Y, Hoskins BJ, 2017, The equivalent barotropic structure of waves in the tropical atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 74, Pages: 1689-1704, ISSN: 0022-4928

Tropical waves are generally considered to have a baroclinic structure. However, analysis of ERA-Interim and NOAA OLR data for the period 1979–2010 shows that in the equatorial and Northern Hemisphere near-equatorial regions in the tropical Western Hemisphere (WH), westward- and eastward-moving transients, with zonal wavenumbers 2–10 and periods of 2–30 days, have little tilt in the vertical and can be said to be equivalent barotropic. The westward-moving transients in the equatorial region have large projections onto the westward mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) wave and those in the near-equatorial region project onto the gravest Rossby wave and also the WMRG. The eastward-moving transients have large projections onto the Doppler-shifted eastward-moving versions of these waves.To examine how such equivalent barotropic structures are possible in the tropics, terms in the vorticity equation are analyzed. It is deduced that waves must have westward intrinsic phase speeds and can exist in the WH with its large westerly vertical shear. Throughout the depth, the advection of vorticity by the zonal flow and the β term are large and nearly cancel. In the upper troposphere the zonal advection by the strong westerly flow wins and the residual is partially balanced by vortex shrinking associated with divergence above a region of ascent. Below the region of ascent the β term wins and is partially balanced by vortex stretching associated with the convergence. An equivalent barotropic structure is therefore maintained in a similar manner to higher latitudes. The regions of ascent are usually associated with deep convection and, consistently, WH waves directly connected to tropical convection are also found to be equivalent barotropic.

Journal article

Thornton HE, Hoskins BJ, Scaife AA, 2016, The role of temperature in the variability and extremes of electricity and gas demand in Great Britain, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Rockstrom J, Schellnhuber HJ, Hoskins B, Ramanathan V, Schlosser P, Brasseur GP, Gaffney O, Nobre C, Meinshausen M, Rogelj J, Lucht Wet al., 2016, The world's biggest gamble, Earth's Future, Vol: 4, Pages: 465-470, ISSN: 2328-4277

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

Journal article

Masato G, Woollings T, Williams KD, Hoskins BJ, Lee RWet al., 2016, A regime analysis of Atlantic winter jet variability applied to evaluate HadGEM3-GC2, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 142, Pages: 3162-3170, ISSN: 0035-9009

Journal article

Thomas R, Graven H, Hoskins B, Prentice Iet al., 2016, What is meant by ‘balancing sources and sinks of greenhouse gases’ to limit global temperature rise?, Grantham Institute Briefing Note, Imperial College London, 3

In an effort to limit global temperature rise to well below 2˚C, the COP21 Paris Agreement stipulates that a ‘balance’ between anthropogenic (man-made) sources and sinks of greenhouse gases must be reached by 2050-2100. An overall greenhouse gas ‘balance’ must consider individual gases in terms of how strongly they absorb solar infrared radiation, their concentration in the atmosphere, and their lifetime in the atmosphere.• Long-lived greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), accumulate in the atmosphere and continue to affect the climate for many centuries. To stabilise the concentrations of these long-lived gases, and thereby their effect on the climate, their sources must be progressively reduced towards zero. • For short-lived greenhouse gases that remain in the atmosphere for less than 100 years, including methane, stable or decreasing concentrations could be achieved within decades if emissions were stabilised or decreased. However, these gases currently only contribute about 20% of the total warming from greenhouse gases, so their reduction alone cannot successfully stabilise global temperature.• An overall ‘balance’ of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases could be facilitated by deliberate removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, for example, by combining biomass energy production with carbon capture and storage. Most current greenhouse gas emission scenarios that keep global temperature rise below 2˚C include some deliberate removal of CO2 to compensate for continued emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases

Report

Yang G-Y, Hoskins BJ, 2016, ENSO-related variation of equatorial MRG and Rossby waves and forcing from higher latitudes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 142, Pages: 2488-2504, ISSN: 1477-870X

The contrasting behaviour of westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) and the first Rossby (R1) waves in El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) seasons is documented with a focus on the Northern Hemisphere winter. The eastward-moving variance in the upper troposphere is dominated by WMRG and R1 structures that appear to be Doppler-shifted by the flow and are referred to as WMRG-E and R1-E. In the east Pacific and Atlantic the years with stronger equatorial westerly winds, LN in the former and EN in the latter, have the stronger WMRG and WMRG-E. In the east Pacific, R1 is also a maximum in LN. However, R1-E exhibits an eastward shift between LN and EN.The changes with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase provide a test bed for the understanding of these waves. In the east Pacific and Atlantic, the stronger WMRG-E and WMRG with stronger westerlies are in accord with the dispersion relation with simple Doppler-shifting by the zonal flow. The possible existence of free waves can also explain stronger R1 in EN in the Eastern Hemisphere. 1-D free-wave propagation theory based on wave activity conservation is also important for R1. However, this theory is unable to explain the amplitude maxima for other waves observed in the strong equatorial westerly regions in the Western Hemisphere, and certainly not their ENSO-related variation. The forcing of equatorial waves by higher-latitude wave activity and its variation with ENSO phase is therefore examined. Propagation of extratropical eastward-moving Rossby wave activity through the westerly ducts into the equatorial region where it triggers WMRG-E is favoured in the stronger westerlies, in LN in the east Pacific and EN in the Atlantic. It is also found that WMRG is forced by Southern Hemisphere westward-moving wave trains arching into the equatorial region where they are reflected. The most significant mechanism for both R1 and R1-E appears to be lateral forcing by subtropical wave trains.

Journal article

Hoskins BJ, Yang G-Y, 2016, The Longitudinal Variation of Equatorial Waves due to Propagation on a Varying Zonal Flow, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 73, Pages: 605-620, ISSN: 1520-0469

The general 1D theory of waves propagating on a zonally varying flow is developed from basic wave theory, and equations are derived for the variation of wavenumber and energy along ray paths. Different categories of behavior are found, depending on the sign of the group velocity cg and a wave property B. For B positive, the wave energy and the wavenumber vary in the same sense, with maxima in relative easterlies or westerlies, depending on the sign of cg. Also the wave accumulation of Webster and Chang occurs where cg goes to zero. However, for B negative, they behave in opposite senses and wave accumulation does not occur. The zonal propagation of the gravest equatorial waves is analyzed in detail using the theory. For nondispersive Kelvin waves, B reduces to 2, and an analytic solution is possible. For all the waves considered, B is positive, except for the westward-moving mixed Rossby–gravity (WMRG) wave, which can have negative B as well as positive B.Comparison is made between the observed climatologies of the individual equatorial waves and the result of pure propagation on the climatological upper-tropospheric flow. The Kelvin wave distribution is in remarkable agreement, considering the approximations made. Some aspects of the WMRG and Rossby wave distributions are also in qualitative agreement. However, the observed maxima in these waves in the winter westerlies in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are generally not in accord with the theory. This is consistent with the importance of the sources of equatorial waves in these westerly duct regions due to higher-latitude wave activity.

Journal article

Whitmarsh F, Hoskins B, McCoy D, 2015, Climate science: frequently asked questions, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 351, ISSN: 1756-1833

Journal article

Zappa G, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TG, 2015, The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change (vol 10, 104012, 2015), ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Zappa G, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TG, 2015, The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1748-9326

Journal article

Hoskins B, Woollings T, 2015, Persistent Extratropical Regimes and Climate Extremes, CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS, Vol: 1, Pages: 115-124, ISSN: 2198-6061

Journal article

Zappa G, Hoskins BJ, Shepherd TG, 2015, Improving Climate Change Detection through Optimal Seasonal Averaging: The Case of the North Atlantic Jet and European Precipitation, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, Vol: 28, Pages: 6381-6397, ISSN: 0894-8755

Journal article

Hoskins B, 2015, Potential Vorticity and the PV Perspective, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, Vol: 32, Pages: 2-9, ISSN: 0256-1530

Journal article

Rockstrom J, Brasseur G, Hoskins B, Lucht W, Schellnhuber J, Kabat P, Nakicenovic N, Gong P, Schlosser P, Costa MM, Humble A, Eyre N, Gleick P, James R, Lucena A, Masera O, Moench M, Schaeffer R, Seitzinger S, van der Leeuw S, Ward B, Stern N, Hurrell J, Srivastava L, Morgan J, Nobre C, Sokona Y, Cremades R, Roth E, Liverman D, Arnott Jet al., 2014, Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment, Earth's Future, Vol: 2, Pages: 606-611, ISSN: 2328-4277

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

Journal article

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