44 results found
Ezzati M, Mishra A, Zhou B, et al., 2023, Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development, Nature, Vol: 615, Pages: 874-883, ISSN: 0028-0836
Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1,2,3,4,5,6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
Zhang M, Shi Y, Zhou B, et al., 2023, Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in China, 2004-18: findings from six rounds of a national survey, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 380, ISSN: 0959-535X
Objective: To assess the recent trends in prevalence and management of hypertension in China, nationally and by population subgroups.Design: Six rounds of a national survey, China.Setting China Chronic Disease and Risk Factors Surveillance, 2004-18.Participants: 642 523 community dwelling adults aged 18-69 years (30 501 in 2004, 47 353 in 2007, 90 491 in 2010, 156 836 in 2013, 162 293 in 2015, and 155 049 in 2018).Main outcome measures: Hypertension was defined as a blood pressure of ≥140/90 mm Hg or taking antihypertensive drugs. The main outcome measures were hypertension prevalence and proportion of people with hypertension who were aware of their hypertension, who were treated for hypertension, and whose blood pressure was controlled below 140/90 mm Hg.Results: The standardised prevalence of hypertension in adults aged 18-69 years in China increased from 20.8% (95% confidence interval 19.0% to 22.5%) in 2004 to 29.6% (27.8% to 31.3%) in 2010, then decreased to 24.7% (23.2% to 26.1%) in 2018. During 2010-18, the absolute annual decline in prevalence of hypertension among women was more than twice that among men (−0.83 percentage points (95% confidence interval −1.13 to −0.52) v −0.40 percentage points (−0.73 to −0.07)). Despite modest improvements in the awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension since 2004, rates remained low in 2018, at 38.3% (36.3% to 40.4%), 34.6% (32.6% to 36.7%), and 12.0% (10.6% to 13.4%). Of 274 million (95% confidence interval 238 to 311 million) adults aged 18-69 years with hypertension in 2018, control was inadequate in an estimated 240 million (215 to 264 million). Across all surveys, women with low educational attainment had higher prevalence of hypertension than those with higher education, but the finding was mixed for men. The gap in hypertension control between urban and rural areas persisted, despite larger improvements in diagnosis an
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, et al., 2022, Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved], Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2398-502X
Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective trea
Pearson-Stuttard J, Cheng Y, Bennett J, et al., 2022, Trends in leading causes of hospitalisation among adults with diabetes in England from 2003 to 2018: an epidemiological analysis of linked primary care records, The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 10, Pages: 46-57, ISSN: 2213-8595
BackgroundDiabetes mellitus (DM) leads to a wide range of established vascular and metabolic complications which has resulted in specific prevention programmes being implemented across high-income countries. DM has been associated with increased risk of a broader set of conditions including cancers, liver disease and common infections. We aimed to examine the trends in a broad set of cause-specific hospitalisations in individuals with DM in England from 2003-2018.MethodsWe identified 309,874 individuals with DM in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a well described primary care database, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient data from 2003-2018. We generated a mixed prevalence and incident DM study population through serial cross sections and follow-up over time. We used a discretised Poisson regression model to estimate annual cause-specific hospitalisation rates in men and women with DM across 17 cause groupings. We generated a 1:1 age and sex matched non-DM population to compare findings. FindingsHospitalisation rates were higher for all causes in persons with DM compared to those without throughout the study period. DM itself and Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) were the leading causes of excess hospitalisation in 2003, but by 2018, respiratory conditions, cancers and IHD were the most common causes of excess hospitalisation across men and women. Hospitalisation rates declined in almost all traditional DM complication groupings (IHD, stroke, DM, amputations) whilst generally increasing across broader conditions (cancers, infections, respiratory conditions). These differing trends resulted in a diversification in the cause of hospitalisation, such that the traditional DM complications accounted for more than 50% of hospitalisations in 2003, but only approximately 30% in 2018. In contrast, the portion of hospitalisations that broader conditions accounted for increased including respiratory infections being attributable for 12% of hospitalisations in 2
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, et al., 2021, Lessons learned and lessons missed: Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination
<jats:p>Industrialised countries have varied in their early response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and how they have adapted to new situations and knowledge since the pandemic began. These variations in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from Covid-19 as well as from other diseases. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in any of these countries. Taken over the entire year, an estimated 1,401,900 (95% credible interval 1,259,700-1,572,500) more people died in these 40 countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. This is equivalent to 140 (126-157) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (13-17) increase in deaths over this period in all of these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower over this period than what would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the populations of the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Netherlands. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Until the great majority of national and global populations have vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the death toll of the pandemic from Covid-19 and other diseases will remain depende
Wang L, Zhou B, Zhao Z, et al., 2021, Body-mass index and obesity in urban and rural China: findings from consecutive nationally representative surveys during 2004-18, LANCET, Vol: 398, Pages: 53-63, ISSN: 0140-6736
Zhou B, Perel P, Mensah GA, et al., 2021, Global epidemiology, health burden and effective interventions for elevated blood pressure and hypertension, NATURE REVIEWS CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 18, Pages: 785-802, ISSN: 1759-5002
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC, Iurilli N, 2021, Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body-mass index to change in obesity and underweight, eLife, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2050-084X
From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
Liu Y, Zhou B, Wang J, et al., 2021, Health benefits and cost of using air purifiers to reduce exposure to ambient fine particulate pollution in China, JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS, Vol: 414, ISSN: 0304-3894
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, et al., 2021, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries (vol 26, pg 1919, 2020), NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 27, Pages: 562-562, ISSN: 1078-8956
Zhou B, Carrillo-Larco RM, Danaei G, et al., 2021, Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 957-980, ISSN: 0140-6736
Rodriguez-Martinez A, Zhou B, Sophiea MK, et al., 2020, Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1511-1524, ISSN: 0140-6736
SummaryBackgroundComparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.MethodsFor this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.FindingsWe pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, et al., 2020, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 1919-1928, ISSN: 1078-8956
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC, 2020, Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol, Nature, Vol: 582, Pages: 73-77, ISSN: 0028-0836
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and per
Taddei C, Jackson R, Zhou B, et al., 2020, National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: an analysis of trends in Asian and Western countries, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 49, Pages: 173-192, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease (CHD), multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries.Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol, and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group.Results: Since ~1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, ~0.4 mmol/Lper decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ~0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ~26% decline in CHD risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only weak correlation to changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.
Jaime Miranda J, Carrillo-Larco RM, Ferreccio C, et al., 2020, Trends in cardiometabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: E123-E133, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundDescribing the prevalence and trends of cardiometabolic risk factors that are associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is crucial for monitoring progress, planning prevention, and providing evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure, and diabetes in the Americas, between 1980 and 2014.MethodsWe did a pooled analysis of population-based studies with data on anthropometric measurements, biomarkers for diabetes, and blood pressure from adults aged 18 years or older. A Bayesian model was used to estimate trends in BMI, raised blood pressure (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg), and diabetes (fasting plasma glucose ≥7·0 mmol/L, history of diabetes, or diabetes treatment) from 1980 to 2014, in 37 countries and six subregions of the Americas.Findings389 population-based surveys from the Americas were available. Comparing prevalence estimates from 2014 with those of 1980, in the non-English speaking Caribbean subregion, the prevalence of obesity increased from 3·9% (95% CI 2·2–6·3) in 1980, to 18·6% (14·3–23·3) in 2014, in men; and from 12·2% (8·2–17·0) in 1980, to 30·5% (25·7–35·5) in 2014, in women. The English-speaking Caribbean subregion had the largest increase in the prevalence of diabetes, from 5·2% (2·1–10·4) in men and 6·4% (2·6–10·4) in women in 1980, to 11·1% (6·4–17·3) in men and 13·6% (8·2–21·0) in women in 2014). Conversely, the prevalence of raised blood pressure has decreased in all subregions; the largest decrease was found in North America from 27·6% (22·3–33·2) in men and 19·9% (15·8–24·4) in women in 1980, to 15·
Carrillo Larco R, Di Cesare MC, Ezzati M, et al., 2019, Transitions of cardio-metabolic risk factors in the Americas between 1980 and 2014, The Lancet Global Health, ISSN: 2214-109X
Background: Describing the levels and trends of cardio-metabolic risk factors associated with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is vital for monitoring progress, planning prevention and provide evidence to support policy efforts. We aimed to analyse the transition in body-mass index (BMI), obesity, blood pressure, raised blood pressure (RBP) and diabetes in the Americas, 1980-2014.Methods: Pooled analysis of population-based studies with data on anthropometric measurements, biomarkers for diabetes, and blood pressure from adults aged 18+ years. A Bayesian model was used to estimate trends in BMI, RBP (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg) and diabetes(fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes, or diabetes treatment) from 1980 to 2014 in 37 countries and 6 sub-regions of the Americas.Findings: 389 population-based surveys from the Americas were available. Comparing the 2014 with the 1980 prevalence estimates, the obesity ratio was the largest in the non-English-speaking Caribbean sub-region (4.71 in men and 2.50 in women) showing that the prevalence in 2014 for men is almost five times larger than it was in 1980. The English-speaking Caribbean sub-region had the largest ratio regarding diabetes (2.14 in men and 2.13 in women). Conversely, the ratio for RBP signals that the frequency of this condition has diminished across the region; the largest decrease was found in North America (0.56 in men and 0.54 in women). Interpretation: Despite the generally high prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors across the Americas region, estimates also show a high level of heterogeneity in the transition between countries.
Zhou B, Danaei G, Stevens GA, et al., 2019, Long-term and recent trends in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in 12 high-income countries: an analysis of 123 nationally representative surveys, Lancet, Vol: 394, Pages: 639-651, ISSN: 0140-6736
Background: Antihypertensive medicines are effective in reducing adverse cardiovascular events. Our aim was to compare hypertension awareness, treatment and control, and how they have changed over time, in high-income countries. Methods: We used data on 526,336 participants aged 40-79 years in 123 national health examination surveys from 1976 to 2017 in twelve high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the USA. We calculated the percent of participants with hypertension – defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90mmHg or being on pharmacological treatment for hypertension – who were aware of their condition, who were treated, and whose hypertension was controlled (i.e. lower than 140/90 mmHg). Findings: Canada, South Korea, Australia and the UK have the lowest prevalence of hypertension, and Finland the highest. In the 1980s and early 1990s, treatment rates were at most 40% and control rates were below 25% in most countries and age-sex groups. Over time, hypertension awareness and treatment increased and control rate improved in all twelve countries, with South Korea and Germany experiencing the largest improvements. Most of the increase occurred in the 1990s and early-mid 2000s, having plateaued since in most countries.Canada, Germany, South Korea and the USA have the highest rates of awareness, treatment and control, while Finland, Ireland, Japan and Spain the lowest. Even in the best performing countries, treatment coverage was at most 80% and control rates were below 70%. Interpretation: Hypertension awareness, treatment and control have improved substantially in high-income countries since the 1980s and 1990s. However, control rates have plateaued in the past decade, at levels lower than those in high-quality hypertension
Bixby H, Bentham J, Zhou B, et al., 2019, Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic, Nature, Vol: 569, Pages: 260-264, ISSN: 0028-0836
Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
Ji W, Zhou B, Zhao B, 2019, Potential reductions in premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 by reducing indoor pollution: A model analysis for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei of China, Environmental Pollution, Vol: 245, Pages: 260-271, ISSN: 0269-7491
BackgroundChina has one of the highest PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm) pollution levels in the world. It might still be long before air quality reaches the National Class II standard of 35 μg/m3.ObjectiveWe aim to estimate the potential reduction in premature mortality by reducing indoor PM2.5 levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and compare it with reducing outdoor levels.MethodsWe combined PM2.5 transport model and the Global Burden of Disease (2016) methodology to estimate potential reductions in premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 by reducing indoor PM2.5 to National Class I standard of 15 μg/m3, and compared with reducing outdoor PM2.5 to Government 2020 Interim target of 64 μg/m3 or National Class II standard of 35 μg/m3.ResultsA total of 74,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 43,000–111,000) premature deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure in 2013. Thirty percent, or 22,000 (95% CI: 17,000–32,000) deaths, would have been averted if indoor PM2.5 had reached the National Class I standard. The benefit is greater than that from reaching the Government 2020 Interim target for outdoor PM2.5 [22%, or 16,000 (95% CI: 12,000–23,000), deaths], although still smaller than that from reaching the National Class II standard [42%, or 31,000 (95% CI: 24,000–45,000), deaths].ConclusionsReaching the National Class I level of indoor PM2.5 at current outdoor pollution levels could bring considerable health benefits, which are comparable to those from reaching the Government 2020 Interim target for outdoor PM2.5.Main findingsThe avertable premature deaths gained from cleaning indoor PM2.5 to National Class I standard level would be greater than reducing outdoor PM2.5 to Government 2020 Interim target.
Zhao B, Chen C, Zhou B, 2018, Is there a timelier solution to air pollution in today's cities?, LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: E240-E240
Pearson-Stuttard J, Zhou B, Kontis V, et al., 2018, Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index: a comparative risk assessment, The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 6, Pages: E6-E15, ISSN: 2213-8595
BackgroundDiabetes and high body-mass index (BMI) are associated with increased risk of several cancers, and are increasing in prevalence in most countries. We estimated the cancer incidence attributable to diabetes and high BMI as individual risk factors and in combination, by country and sex.MethodsWe estimated population attributable fractions for 12 cancers by age and sex for 175 countries in 2012. We defined high BMI as a BMI greater than or equal to 25 kg/m2. We used comprehensive prevalence estimates of diabetes and BMI categories in 2002, assuming a 10-year lag between exposure to diabetes or high BMI and incidence of cancer, combined with relative risks from published estimates, to quantify contribution of diabetes and high BMI to site-specific cancers, individually and combined as independent risk factors and in a conservative scenario in which we assumed full overlap of risk of diabetes and high BMI. We then used GLOBOCAN cancer incidence data to estimate the number of cancer cases attributable to the two risk factors. We also estimated the number of cancer cases in 2012 that were attributable to increases in the prevalence of diabetes and high BMI from 1980 to 2002. All analyses were done at individual country level and grouped by region for reporting.FindingsWe estimated that 5·7% of all incident cancers in 2012 were attributable to the combined effects of diabetes and high BMI as independent risk factors, corresponding to 804 100 new cases. 187 600 (24·5%) of 766 000 cases of liver cancer and 121 700 (38·4%) of 317 000 cases of endometrial cancer were attributable to these risk factors. In the conservative scenario, about 4·5% (629 000 new cases) of all incident cancers assessed were attributable to diabetes and high BMI combined. Individually, high BMI (544 300 cases) was responsible for almost twice as many cancer cases as diabetes (293 300 cases). 25·8% of diabetes-related cancers (equating to 75 600 new cases) and
Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, et al., 2018, Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1,018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 47, Pages: 872-883i, ISSN: 1464-3685
BackgroundChange in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.MethodsWe pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20–29 years to 70–79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.ResultsIn 2005–16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.ConclusionsChange in mean bloo
Arku RE, Ezzati M, Baumgartner J, et al., 2018, Elevated blood pressure and household solid fuel use in premenopausal women: Analysis of 12 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 10 countries, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 160, Pages: 499-505, ISSN: 0013-9351
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration NCD-RisC, 2017, Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults., Lancet, Vol: 390, Pages: 2627-2642, ISSN: 0140-6736
BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m(2) per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m(2) per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m(2) per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m(2) per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m(2) per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Tre
Kenge AP, Bentham J, Zhou B, et al., 2017, Trends in obesity and diabetes across regions in Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies., International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 46, Pages: 1421-1432, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background: The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and other NCDs advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends, from 1980 to 2014, in age-standardised mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation.Methods: We pooled data from African and world-wide population-based studies which measured height, weight, and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged >18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends, by sex, for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions, (central, eastern, northern, southern and western) in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of >7.0 mmol/L, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). ResultsAfrican data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n=17), Nigeria (n=15) and Egypt (n=13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n=8), Tunisia (n=7), Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n=6). The age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3-21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7-23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3-22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6-25.1) in women. The age-standardised prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5-6.3) to 8.5% (6.5-10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0-7.5) to 8.9 % (6.9-11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence
Ezzati M, Zhou B, Riley L, et al., 2017, Challenges of monitoring global diabetes prevalence, Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, ISSN: 2213-8595
Ezzati M, Zhou B, Riley L, et al., 2017, Challenges of monitoring global diabetes prevalence, Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 5, Pages: 162-162, ISSN: 2213-8595
Ueda P, Woodward M, Lu Y, et al., 2017, Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys., Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol: 5, Pages: 196-213, ISSN: 2213-8595
BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS: Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for
Zhou B, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, et al., 2016, Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1,479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants, The Lancet, Vol: 389, Pages: 37-55, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the es
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