Imperial College London
Dr Bin Zhou

DrBinZhou

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

b.zhou13

 
 
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Location

 

Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hajifathalian:2015:10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9,
author = {Hajifathalian, K and Ueda, P and Lu, Y and Woodward, M and Ahmadvand, A and Aguilar-Salinas, CA and Azizi, F and Cifkova, R and Di, Cesare M and Eriksen, L and Farzadfar, F and Ikeda, N and Khalili, D and Khang, Y-H and Lanska, V and Leon-Munoz, L and Magliano, D and Msyamboza, KP and Oh, K and Rodriguez-Artalejo, F and Rojas-Martinez, R and Shaw, JE and Stevens, GA and Tolstrup, J and Zhou, B and Salomon, JA and Ezzati, M and Danaei, G},
doi = {10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9},
journal = {The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology},
pages = {339--355},
title = {A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk): a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health examination surveys},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9},
volume = {3},
year = {2015}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundTreatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be recalibrated and updated for application in different countries with routinely available information.MethodsWe used data from eight prospective cohort studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equation with proportional hazard regressions. The risk prediction equation included smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol, and allowed the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease to vary between cohorts or countries. We developed risk equations for fatal cardiovascular disease and for fatal plus non-fatal cardiovascular disease. We validated the risk equations internally and also using data from three cohorts that were not used to create the equations. We then used the risk prediction equation and data from recent (2006 or later) national health surveys to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of cardiovascular disease risk in 11 countries from different world regions (China, Czech Republic, Denmark, England, Iran, Japan, Malawi, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and USA).FindingsThe risk score discriminated well in internal and external validations, with C statistics generally 70% or more. At any age and risk factor level, the estimated 10 year fatal cardiovascular disease risk varied substantially between countries. The prevalence of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was lowest in South Korea, Spain, and Denmark, where only 5–10% of men and women had more than a 10% risk, and 62–76% of men and 79–82% of women had less than a 3% risk. Conversely, the proportion of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was largest in China and Mexico. In China, 33% of men and 28% of women had a 10-year risk of
AU  - Hajifathalian,K
AU  - Ueda,P
AU  - Lu,Y
AU  - Woodward,M
AU  - Ahmadvand,A
AU  - Aguilar-Salinas,CA
AU  - Azizi,F
AU  - Cifkova,R
AU  - Di,Cesare M
AU  - Eriksen,L
AU  - Farzadfar,F
AU  - Ikeda,N
AU  - Khalili,D
AU  - Khang,Y-H
AU  - Lanska,V
AU  - Leon-Munoz,L
AU  - Magliano,D
AU  - Msyamboza,KP
AU  - Oh,K
AU  - Rodriguez-Artalejo,F
AU  - Rojas-Martinez,R
AU  - Shaw,JE
AU  - Stevens,GA
AU  - Tolstrup,J
AU  - Zhou,B
AU  - Salomon,JA
AU  - Ezzati,M
AU  - Danaei,G
DO  - 10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9
EP  - 355
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 2213-8587
SP  - 339
TI  - A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk): a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health examination surveys
T2  - The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9
UR  - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000353413700018&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00081-9
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/106531
VL  - 3
ER  -
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