BibTex format
@unpublished{Contaldi:2020,
author = {Contaldi, CR},
publisher = {arXiv},
title = {COVID-19: nowcasting reproduction factors using biased case testing data},
url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12252v1},
year = {2020}
}
Publications
Citation
RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)
TY - UNPB
AB - Timely estimation of the current value for COVID-19 reproduction factor $R$has become a key aim of efforts to inform management strategies. $R$ is animportant metric used by policy-makers in setting mitigation levels and is alsoimportant for accurate modelling of epidemic progression. This brief paperintroduces a method for estimating $R$ from biased case testing data. Usingtesting data, rather than hospitalisation or death data, provides a muchearlier metric along the symptomatic progression scale. This can be hugelyimportant when fighting the exponential nature of an epidemic. We develop apractical estimator and apply it to Scottish case testing data to infer acurrent (20 May 2020) $R$ value of $0.74$ with $95\%$ confidence interval$[0.48 - 0.86]$.
AU - Contaldi,CR
PB - arXiv
PY - 2020///
TI - COVID-19: nowcasting reproduction factors using biased case testing data
UR - http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12252v1
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86236
ER -