Imperial College London
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Professor Christl Donnelly CBE FMedSci FRS

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Professor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

c.donnelly Website

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Redding:2021:10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y,
author = {Redding, DW and Gibb, R and Dan-Nwafor, CC and Ilori, EA and Usman, YR and Saliu, OH and Michael, AO and Akanimo, I and Attfield, LA and Donnelly, C and Abubakar, I and Jones, KE and Ihekweazu, C},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--10},
title = {Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomysnatalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.
AU  - Redding,DW
AU  - Gibb,R
AU  - Dan-Nwafor,CC
AU  - Ilori,EA
AU  - Usman,YR
AU  - Saliu,OH
AU  - Michael,AO
AU  - Akanimo,I
AU  - Attfield,LA
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Abubakar,I
AU  - Jones,KE
AU  - Ihekweazu,C
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y
EP  - 10
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25910-y
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91675
VL  - 12
ER  -
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