Publications
307 results found
Fidler S, Fraser C, Fox J, et al., 2006, Comparative potency of three antiretroviral therapy regimes in primary HIV infection., AIDS.
Donnelly CA, Riley S, Fraser C, et al., 2006, Epidemiological analysis of SARS: a novel infectious disease, Challenges of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Editors: Chan, Wong, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 9-30
Fraser C, 2005, HIV recombination: what is the impact on antiretroviral therapy?, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 2, Pages: 489-503, ISSN: 1742-5689
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- Citations: 49
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hooper J, et al., 2005, Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 2, Pages: 349-363, ISSN: 1742-5689
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- Citations: 23
Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR, et al., 2005, Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 162, Pages: 479-486, ISSN: 0002-9262
During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital.
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, et al., 2005, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia., Nature, Vol: 437, Pages: 209-214
Hanage WP, Fraser C, Spratt BG, 2005, Fuzzy species among recombinogenic bacteria, BMC Biology, Vol: 3, ISSN: 1741-7007
Background: It is a matter of ongoing debate whether a universal species concept is possible forbacteria. Indeed, it is not clear whether closely related isolates of bacteria typically form discretegenotypic clusters that can be assigned as species. The most challenging test of whether species canbe clearly delineated is provided by analysis of large populations of closely-related, highlyrecombinogenic, bacteria that colonise the same body site. We have used concatenated sequencesof seven house-keeping loci from 770 strains of 11 named Neisseria species, and phylogenetic trees,to investigate whether genotypic clusters can be resolved among these recombinogenic bacteriaand, if so, the extent to which they correspond to named species.Results: Alleles at individual loci were widely distributed among the named species but thisdistorting effect of recombination was largely buffered by using concatenated sequences, whichresolved clusters corresponding to the three species most numerous in the sample, N. meningitidis,N. lactamica and N. gonorrhoeae. A few isolates arose from the branch that separated N. meningitidisfrom N. lactamica leading us to describe these species as 'fuzzy'.Conclusion: A multilocus approach using large samples of closely related isolates delineatesspecies even in the highly recombinogenic human Neisseria where individual loci are inadequate forthe task. This approach should be applied by taxonomists to large samples of other groups ofclosely-related bacteria, and especially to those where species delineation has historically beendifficult, to determine whether genotypic clusters can be delineated, and to guide the definition ofspecies.
Fraser C, Hanage WP, Spratt BG, 2005, Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogens, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 102, Pages: 1968-1973, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 102
Grassly NC, Fraser C, Garnett GP, 2005, Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States, NATURE, Vol: 433, Pages: 417-421, ISSN: 0028-0836
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- Citations: 157
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2005, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic., SARS: a case study in emerging infections., Editors: McLean, May, Pattison, Weiss, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Pages: 61-80
Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Lam TH, et al., 2005, Transmission Dynamics and Control of the Viral Aetiological Agent of SARS, SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME, Editors: Peiris, Anderson, Osterhaus, Stohr, Yuen, Publisher: BLACKWELL SCIENCE PUBL, Pages: 111-130
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- Citations: 1
Donnelly CA, Fisher MC, Fraser C, et al., 2004, Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 4, Pages: 672-683, ISSN: 1473-3099
The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–2003 showed how quickly a novel infectious disease can spread both within communities and internationally. We have reviewed the epidemiological and genetic analyses that have been published both during and since these epidemics, and show how quickly data were collected and analyses undertaken. Key factors that determine the speed and scale of transmission of an infectious disease were estimated using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, and phylogenetic analyses provided insights into the origin and evolution of the SARS-associated coronavirus. The SARS literature continues to grow, and it is hoped that international collaboration in the analysis of epidemiological and contact-network databases will provide further insights into the spread of this newly emergent infectious disease.
Leung GM, Chung P-H, Tsang T, et al., 2004, SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 10, Pages: 1653-1656, ISSN: 1080-6040
A total of 1,068 asymptomatic close contacts of patients with severe acute respiratory (SARS) from the 2003 epidemic in Hong Kong were serologically tested, and 2 (0.19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus.
Anderson RM, Fraser C, Ghani AC, et al., 2004, Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic, Philos Trans R Soc Lond, B, Biol Sci, Vol: 359, Pages: 1091-1105
Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al., 2004, Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic, SCIENCE, Vol: 304, Pages: 968-969, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 124
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, et al., 2004, Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol: 101, Pages: 6146-6151
Bocharov G, Ludewig B, Bertoletti A, et al., 2004, Underwhelming the immune response:: Effect of slow virus growth on CD8<SUP>+</SUP>-T-lymphocyte responses, JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY, Vol: 78, Pages: 2247-2254, ISSN: 0022-538X
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- Citations: 77
G M Leung, A J Hedley, L M Ho, et al., 2004, The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients, Ann Intern Med, Vol: 141, Pages: 662-673, ISSN: 0003-4819
Garnett GP, Fraser C, 2003, Let it be sexual - selection, aggregation and distortion used to construct a case against sexual transmission, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STD & AIDS, Vol: 14, Pages: 782-784, ISSN: 0956-4624
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- Citations: 5
Fraser C, Anderson RM, 2003, HIV viral sex: inbreeding, recombination, drug resistance and clinical outcome, 12th International HIV Drug Resistance Workshop, Publisher: INT MEDICAL PRESS LTD, Pages: U68-U69, ISSN: 1359-6535
Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al., 2003, Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions, Science, Vol: 300, Pages: 1961-1966
Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, et al., 2003, Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, The Lancet, Vol: 361, Pages: 1761-1766, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundHealth authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong.MethodsWe included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients’age and the time from onset to admission.FindingsAfter the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% Cl 5.2–7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8–16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2–52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric γ distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0–9.6) and 55.0% (45.3–64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic.InterpretationPatients’age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quaranti
Fraser C, Ferguson NM, de Wolf F, et al., 2002, Antigen-driven T-cell turnover, JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 219, Pages: 177-192, ISSN: 0022-5193
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- Citations: 8
Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, et al., 2002, Viral replication under combination antiretroviral therapy: A comparison of four different regimens, JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES, Vol: 30, Pages: 167-176, ISSN: 1525-4135
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- Citations: 12
&NA;, 2002, VIRAL REPLICATION UNDER COMBINATION ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY: A COMPARISON OF FOUR DIFFERENT REGIMENS, Infectious Diseases in Clinical Practice, Vol: 11, Pages: 267-267, ISSN: 1056-9103
Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2001, Quantification of intrinsic residual viral replication in treated HIV-infected patients, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 98, Pages: 15167-15172, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 23
Fraser C, Ferguson NM, de Wolf D, et al., 2001, The role of antigenic stimulation and cytotoxic T cell activity in regulating the long-term immunopathogenesis of HIV: mechanisms and clinical implications, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 268, Pages: 2085-2095, ISSN: 0962-8452
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- Citations: 32
Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Anderson RM, 2001, Viral dynamics and anti-viral pharmacodynamics:: rethinking <i>in vitro</i> measures of drug potency, TRENDS IN PHARMACOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 22, Pages: 97-100, ISSN: 0165-6147
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- Citations: 28
Fraser C, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, et al., 2000, Reduction of the HIV-1-infected T-cell reservoir by immune activation treatment is dose-dependent and restricted by the potency of antiretroviral drugs, AIDS, Vol: 14, Pages: 659-669, ISSN: 0269-9370
BACKGROUND: Treatments combining T-cell activating agents and potent antiretroviral drugs have been proposed as a possible means of reducing the reservoir of long-lived HIV-1 infected quiescent CD4 T-cells. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the effect of such therapies on HIV-1 dynamics and T-cell homeostasis. DESIGN AND METHODS: A mathematical framework describing HIV-1 dynamics and T-cell homeostasis was developed. Three patients who were kept on a particularly potent course of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were treated with the anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody OKT3 and interleukin (IL)-2. Plasma HIV-RNA, and HIV-RNA and DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and lymph node mononuclear cells were measured. These results and other published studies on the use of IL-2 alone were assessed using our mathematical framework. RESULTS: We show that outcome of treatment is determined by the relative rates of depletion of the infected quiescent T-cell population by activation and of its replenishment through new infection. Which of these two processes dominates is critically dependent on both the potency of HAART and also the degree of T-cell activation induced. We demonstrate that high-level T-cell stimulation is likely to produce negative outcomes, both by failing to reduce viral reservoirs and by depleting the CD4 T-cell pool and disrupting CD4/CD8 T-cell homeostasis. In contrast, repeated low-level stimulation may both aid CD4 T-cell pool expansion and achieve a substantial reduction in the long-lived HIV-1 reservoir. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that although treatment that activates T-cells can reduce the long-lived HIV-1 reservoir, caution should be used as high-level stimulation may result in a negative outcome.
Dall'Agata G, Fabbri D, Fraser C, et al., 1999, The <i>Osp</i>(8|4) singleton action from the supermembrane, NUCLEAR PHYSICS B, Vol: 542, Pages: 157-194, ISSN: 0550-3213
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- Citations: 26
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