4 results found
McCormack CP, Yan AWC, Brown JC, et al., 2023, Modelling the viral dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in different cell types., Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1742-5662
We use viral kinetic models fitted to viral load data from in vitro studies to explain why the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant replicates faster than the Delta variant in nasal cells, but slower than Delta in lung cells, which could explain Omicron's higher transmission potential and lower severity. We find that in both nasal and lung cells, viral infectivity is higher for Omicron but the virus production rate is higher for Delta, with an estimated approximately 200-fold increase in infectivity and 100-fold decrease in virus production when comparing Omicron with Delta in nasal cells. However, the differences are unequal between cell types, and ultimately lead to the basic reproduction number and growth rate being higher for Omicron in nasal cells, and higher for Delta in lung cells. In nasal cells, Omicron alone can enter via a TMPRSS2-independent pathway, but it is primarily increased efficiency of TMPRSS2-dependent entry which accounts for Omicron's increased activity. This work paves the way for using within-host mathematical models to understand the transmission potential and severity of future variants.
McCormack CP, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, 2019, Fine-scale modelling finds that breeding site fragmentation can reduce mosquito population persistence, COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY, Vol: 2
Dorigatti I, McCormack C, Nedjati-Gilani G, et al., 2017, Using Wolbachia for Dengue Control: Insights from Modelling., Trends in Parasitology, Vol: 34, Pages: 102-113, ISSN: 1471-5007
Dengue is the most common arboviral infection of humans, responsible for a substantial disease burden across the tropics. Traditional insecticide-based vector-control programmes have limited effectiveness, and the one licensed vaccine has a complex and imperfect efficacy profile. Strains of the bacterium Wolbachia, deliberately introduced into Aedes aegyptimosquitoes, have been shown to be able to spread to high frequencies in mosquito populations in release trials, and mosquitoes infected with these strains show markedly reduced vector competence. Thus, Wolbachia represents an exciting potential new form of biocontrol for arboviral diseases, including dengue. Here, we review how mathematical models give insight into the dynamics of the spread of Wolbachia, the potential impact of Wolbachia on dengue transmission, and we discuss the remaining challenges in evaluation and development.
McCormack C, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, 2017, THE EFFECTS OF METAPOPULATION STRUCTURE ON FINE-SCALE MOSQUITO POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE AND MALARIA, 66th Annual Meeting of the American-Society-of-Tropical-Medicine-and-Hygiene (ASTMH), Publisher: AMER SOC TROP MED & HYGIENE, Pages: 191-191, ISSN: 0002-9637
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