Publications
420 results found
Silva V, Regnier G, Salinas P, et al., 2022, Rapid modelling of reactive transport in porous media using machine learning
Reactive transport in porous media can play an important role in a variety of processes in subsurface reservoirs, such as groundwater flow, geothermal heat production, oil recovery and CO2 storage. However, numerical solution of fluid flow in porous media coupled with chemical reaction is very computationally demanding. Simultaneously, the success of machine learning in different fields has opened up new possibilities in reactive transport simulations. In this project, we focus on using machine learning techniques to replace the geochemical kinetic calculations generated by PHREEQC. PHREEQC is an open-source aqueous geochemical code that can be used in stand-alone mode or as a reaction module coupled with a flow and transport simulator. Here, we apply machine learning approaches to produce a fast proxy model of PHREEQC. This enables us to have a coupling between transport and reaction while minimizing the added computational cost. We focus initially on calcite dissolution during CO2 sequestration. Different machine learning techniques are investigated and compared to see which is more appropriate for the calcite dissolution problem. The proposed machine learning approach is designed to deal with different time-step sizes and unstructured elements. It accelerates the numerical simulation and proves to be practical to replace the reaction model presented in PHREEQC. This considerably reduces the computational cost of reactive transport while ensuring excellent simulation accuracy. The rapid modelling of reactive transport in porous media has a broad potential to replace many other phase equilibrium models across a wide range of reactive transport problems.
Arcucci R, Casas CQ, Joshi A, et al., 2022, Merging Real Images with Physics Simulations via Data Assimilation, 27th International European Conference on Parallel and Distributed Computing (Euro-Par), Publisher: SPRINGER INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHING AG, Pages: 255-266, ISSN: 0302-9743
Jolaade M, Silva VLS, Heaney CE, et al., 2022, Generative Networks Applied to Model Fluid Flows, 22nd Annual International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS), Publisher: SPRINGER INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHING AG, Pages: 742-755, ISSN: 0302-9743
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- Citations: 2
Silva VLS, Salinas P, Jackson MD, et al., 2021, Machine learning acceleration for nonlinear solvers applied to multiphase porous media flow, Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, Vol: 384, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 0045-7825
A machine learning approach to accelerate convergence of the nonlinear solver in multiphase flow problems is presented here. The approach dynamically controls an acceleration method based on numerical relaxation. It is demonstrated in a Picard iterative solver but is applicable to other types of nonlinear solvers. The aim of the machine learning acceleration is to reduce the computational cost of the nonlinear solver by adjusting to the complexity/physics of the system. Using dimensionless parameters to train and control the machine learning enables the use of a simple two-dimensional layered reservoir for training, while also exploring a wide range of the parameter space. Hence, the training process is simplified and it does not need to be rerun when the machine learning acceleration is applied to other reservoir models. We show that the method can significantly reduce the number of nonlinear iterations without compromising the simulation results, including models that are considerably more complex than the training case.
Obeysekara A, Salinas P, Heaney CE, et al., 2021, Prediction of multiphase flows with sharp interfaces using anisotropic mesh optimisation, Advances in Engineering Software, Vol: 160, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 0965-9978
We propose an integrated, parallelised modelling approach to solve complex multiphase flow problems with sharp interfaces. This approach is based on a finite-element, double control-volume methodology, and employs highly-anisotropic mesh optimisation within a framework of high-order numerical methods and algorithms, which include adaptive time-stepping, metric advection, flux limiting, compressive advection of interfaces, multi-grid solvers and preconditioners. Each method is integral to increasing the fidelity of representing the underlying physics while maximising computational efficiency, and, only in combination, do these methods result in the accurate, reliable, and efficient simulation of complex multiphase flows and associated regime transitions. These methods are applied simultaneously for the first time in this paper, although some of the individual methods have been presented previously. We validate our numerical predictions against standard benchmark results from the literature and demonstrate capabilities of our modelling framework through the simulation of laminar and turbulent two-phase pipe flows. These complex interfacial flows involve the creation of bubbles and slugs, which involve multi-scale physics and arise due to a delicate interplay amongst inertia, viscous, gravitational, and capillary forces. We also comment on the potential use of our integrated approach to simulate large, industrial-scale multiphase pipe flow problems that feature complex topological transitions.
Titus Z, Heaney C, Jacquemyn C, et al., 2021, Conditioning surface-based geological models to well data using artificial neural networks, Computational Geosciences: modeling, simulation and data analysis, Vol: 26, Pages: 779-802, ISSN: 1420-0597
Surface-based modelling provides a computationally efficient approach for generating geometrically realistic representations of heterogeneity in reservoir models. However, conditioning Surface-Based Geological Models (SBGMs) to well data can be challenging because it is an ill-posed inverse problem with spatially distributed parameters. To aid fast and efficient conditioning, we use here SBGMs that model geometries using parametric, grid-free surfaces that require few parameters to represent even realistic geological architectures. A neural network is trained to learn the underlying process of generating SBGMs by learning the relationship between the parametrized SBGM inputs and the resulting facies identified at well locations. To condition the SBGM to these observed data, inverse modelling of the SBGM inputs is achieved by replacing the forward model with the pre-trained neural network and optimizing the network inputs using the back-propagation technique applied in training the neural network. An analysis of the uncertainties associated with the conditioned realisations demonstrates the applicability of the approach for evaluating spatial variations in geological heterogeneity away from control data in reservoir modelling. This approach for generating geologically plausible models that are calibrated with observed well data could also be extended to other geological modelling techniques such as object- and process-based modelling.
Phillips TRF, Heaney CE, Smith PN, et al., 2021, An autoencoder‐based reduced‐order model for eigenvalue problems with application to neutron diffusion, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol: 122, Pages: 3780-3811, ISSN: 0029-5981
Using an autoencoder for dimensionality reduction, this article presents a novel projection‐based reduced‐order model for eigenvalue problems. Reduced‐order modeling relies on finding suitable basis functions which define a low‐dimensional space in which a high‐dimensional system is approximated. Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are often used for this purpose and yield an optimal linear subspace. Autoencoders provide a nonlinear alternative to POD/SVD, that may capture, more efficiently, features or patterns in the high‐fidelity model results. Reduced‐order models based on an autoencoder and a novel hybrid SVD‐autoencoder are developed. These methods are compared with the standard POD‐Galerkin approach and are applied to two test cases taken from the field of nuclear reactor physics.
Salinas P, Regnier G, Jacquemyn C, et al., 2021, Dynamic mesh optimisation for geothermal reservoir modelling, Geothermics, Vol: 94, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 0375-6505
Modelling geothermal reservoirs is challenging due to the large domain and wide range of length- and time-scales of interest. Attempting to represent all scales using a fixed computational mesh can be very computationally expensive. Application of dynamic mesh optimisation in other fields of computational fluid dynamics has revolutionised the accuracy and cost of numerical simulations. Here we present a new approach for modelling geothermal reservoirs based on unstructured meshes with dynamic mesh optimisation. The resolution of the mesh varies during a simulation, to minimize an error metric for solution fields of interest such as temperature and pressure. Efficient application of dynamic mesh optimisation in complex subsurface reservoirs requires a new approach to represent geologic heterogeneity and we use parametric spline surfaces to represent key geological features such as faults and lithology boundaries. The resulting 3D surface-based models are mesh free; a mesh is created only when required for numerical computations. Dynamic mesh optimisation preserves the surfaces and hence geologic heterogeneity. The governing equations are discretised using a double control volume finite element method that ensures heat and mass are conserved and provides robust solutions on distorted meshes. We apply the new method to a series of test cases that model sedimentary geothermal reservoirs. We demonstrate that dynamic mesh optimisation yields significant performance gains, reducing run times by up to 8 times whilst capturing flow and heat transport with the same accuracy as fixed meshes.
Wu P, Gong S, Pan K, et al., 2021, Reduced order model using convolutional auto-encoder with self-attention, PHYSICS OF FLUIDS, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1070-6631
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- Citations: 18
Yang L, Buchan A, Pavlidis D, et al., 2021, A three-phase interpenetrating continua approach for wave and porous structure interaction, ENGINEERING COMPUTATIONS, Vol: 38, Pages: 1157-1169, ISSN: 0264-4401
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- Citations: 2
Cheng M, Fang F, Navon IM, et al., 2021, A real-time flow forecasting with deep convolutional generative adversarial network: Application to flooding event in Denmark, Physics of Fluids, Vol: 33, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1070-6631
Real-time flood forecasting is crucial for supporting emergency responses to inundation-prone regions. Due to uncertainties in the future (e.g., meteorological conditions and model parameter inputs), it is challenging to make accurate forecasts of spatiotemporal floods. In this paper, a real-time predictive deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) is developed for flooding forecasting. The proposed methodology consists of a two-stage process: (1) dynamic flow learning and (2) real-time forecasting. In dynamic flow learning, the deep convolutional neural networks are trained to capture the underlying flow patterns of spatiotemporal flow fields. In real-time forecasting, the DCGAN adopts a cascade predictive procedure. The last one-time step-ahead forecast from the DCGAN can act as a new input for the next time step-ahead forecast, which forms a long lead-time forecast in a recursive way. The model capability is assessed using a 100-year return period extreme flood event occurred in Greve, Denmark. The results indicate that the predictive fluid flows from the DCGAN and the high fidelity model are in a good agreement (the correlation coefficient
Tajnafoi G, Arcucci R, Mottet L, et al., 2021, Variational Gaussian process for optimal sensor placement, Applications of Mathematics, Vol: 66, Pages: 287-317, ISSN: 0373-6725
Sensor placement is an optimisation problem that has recently gained great relevance. In order to achieve accurate online updates of a predictive model, sensors are used to provide observations. When sensor location is optimally selected, the predictive model can greatly reduce its internal errors. A greedy-selection algorithm is used for locating these optimal spatial locations from a numerical embedded space. A novel architecture for solving this big data problem is proposed, relying on a variational Gaussian process. The generalisation of the model is further improved via the preconditioning of its inputs: Masked Autoregressive Flows are implemented to learn nonlinear, invertible transformations of the conditionally modelled spatial features. Finally, a global optimisation strategy extending the Mutual Information-based optimisation and fine-tuning of the selected optimal location is proposed. The methodology is parallelised to speed up the computational time, making these tools very fast despite the high complexity associated with both spatial modelling and placement tasks. The model is applied to a real three-dimensional test case considering a room within the Clarence Centre building located in Elephant and Castle, London, UK.
Lyu Z, Lei Q, Yang L, et al., 2021, A novel approach to optimising well trajectory in heterogeneous reservoirs based on the fast-marching method, Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, Vol: 88, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1875-5100
To achieve efficient recovery of subsurface energy resources, a suitable trajectory needs to be identified for the production well. In this study, a new approach is presented for automated identification of optimum well trajectories in heterogeneous oil/gas reservoirs. The optimisation procedures are as follows. First, a productivity potential map is generated based on the site characterisation data of a reservoir (when available). Second, based on the fast-marching method, well paths are generated from a number of entrance positions to a number of exit points at opposite sides of the reservoir. The well trajectory is also locally constrained by a prescribed maximum curvature to ensure that the well trajectory is drillable. Finally, the optimum well trajectory is selected from all the candidate paths based on the calculation of a benefit-to-cost ratio. If required, a straight directional well path, may also be derived through a linear approximation to the optimised non-linear trajectory by least squares analysis. Model performance has been demonstrated in both 2D and 3D. In the 2D example, the benefit-to-cost ratio of the optimised well is much higher than that of a straight well; in the 3D example, laterals of various curvatures are generated. The applicability of the method is tested by exploring different reservoir heterogeneities and curvature constraints. This approach can be applied to determine the entrance/exit positions and the well path for subsurface energy system development, which is useful for field applications.
Zheng J, Wu X, Fang F, et al., 2021, Numerical study of COVID-19 spatial-temporal spreading in London, PHYSICS OF FLUIDS, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1070-6631
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- Citations: 14
Burridge HC, Bhagat RK, Stettler MEJ, et al., 2021, The ventilation of buildings and other mitigating measures for COVID-19: a focus on wintertime, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol: 477, Pages: 1-31, ISSN: 1364-5021
The year 2020 has seen the emergence of a global pandemic as a result of the disease COVID-19. This report reviews knowledge of the transmission of COVID-19 indoors, examines the evidence for mitigating measures, and considers the implications for wintertime with a focus on ventilation.
Cheng S, Pain CC, Guo Y-K, et al., 2021, Real-time Updating of Dynamic Social Networks for COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Vaccination strategy is crucial in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the supply is still limited in many countries, contact network-based interventions can be most powerful to set an efficient strategy by identifying high-risk individuals or communities. However, due to the high dimension, only partial and noisy network information can be available in practice, especially for dynamic systems where contact networks are highly time-variant. Furthermore, the numerous mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have a significant impact on the infectious probability, requiring real-time network updating algorithms. In this study, we propose a sequential network updating approach based on data assimilation techniques to combine different sources of temporal information. We then prioritise the individuals with high-degree or high-centrality, obtained from assimilated networks, for vaccination. The assimilation-based approach is compared with the standard method (based on partially observed networks) and a random selection strategy in terms of vaccination effectiveness in a SIR model. The numerical comparison is first carried out using real-world face-to-face dynamic networks collected in a high school, followed by sequential multi-layer networks generated relying on the Barabasi-Albert model emulating large-scale social networks with several communities.</jats:p>
Phillips T, Heaney C, Tollit B, et al., 2021, Reduced-order modelling with domain decomposition applied to multi-group neutron transport, Energies, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1996-1073
Solving the neutron transport equations is a demanding computational challenge. This paper combines reduced-order modelling with domain decomposition to develop an approach that can tackle such problems. The idea is to decompose the domain of a reactor, form basis functions locally in each sub-domain and construct a reduced-order model from this. Several different ways of constructing the basis functions for local sub-domains are proposed, and a comparison is given with a reduced-order model that is formed globally. A relatively simple one-dimensional slab reactor provides a test case with which to investigate the capabilities of the proposed methods. The results show that domain decomposition reduced-order model methods perform comparably with the global reduced-order model when the total number of reduced variables in the system is the same with the potential for the offline computational cost to be significantly less expensive.
Heaney CE, Buchan AG, Pain CC, et al., 2021, Reduced-order modelling applied to the multigroup neutron diffusion equation using a nonlinear interpolation method for control-rod movement, Energies, ISSN: 1996-1073
Kumar P, Kalaiarasan G, Porter AE, et al., 2021, An overview of methods of fine and ultrafine particle collection for physicochemical characterisation and toxicity assessments., Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 756, Pages: 1-22, ISSN: 0048-9697
Particulate matter (PM) is a crucial health risk factor for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The smaller size fractions, ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5; fine particles) and ≤0.1 μm (PM0.1; ultrafine particles), show the highest bioactivity but acquiring sufficient mass for in vitro and in vivo toxicological studies is challenging. We review the suitability of available instrumentation to collect the PM mass required for these assessments. Five different microenvironments representing the diverse exposure conditions in urban environments are considered in order to establish the typical PM concentrations present. The highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM0.1 were found near traffic (i.e. roadsides and traffic intersections), followed by indoor environments, parks and behind roadside vegetation. We identify key factors to consider when selecting sampling instrumentation. These include PM concentration on-site (low concentrations increase sampling time), nature of sampling sites (e.g. indoors; noise and space will be an issue), equipment handling and power supply. Physicochemical characterisation requires micro- to milli-gram quantities of PM and it may increase according to the processing methods (e.g. digestion or sonication). Toxicological assessments of PM involve numerous mechanisms (e.g. inflammatory processes and oxidative stress) requiring significant amounts of PM to obtain accurate results. Optimising air sampling techniques are therefore important for the appropriate collection medium/filter which have innate physical properties and the potential to interact with samples. An evaluation of methods and instrumentation used for airborne virus collection concludes that samplers operating cyclone sampling techniques (using centrifugal forces) are effective in collecting airborne viruses. We highlight that predictive modelling can help to identify pollution hotspots in an urban environment for the efficient collection of PM mass. This review provides
Quilodrán-Casas C, Silva VS, Arcucci R, et al., 2021, Digital twins based on bidirectional LSTM and GAN for modelling COVID-19
The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spreadthroughout the globe infecting over 100 million people and causing the death ofover 2.2 million people. Thus, there is an urgent need to study the dynamics ofepidemiological models to gain a better understanding of how such diseasesspread. While epidemiological models can be computationally expensive, recentadvances in machine learning techniques have given rise to neural networks withthe ability to learn and predict complex dynamics at reduced computationalcosts. Here we introduce two digital twins of a SEIRS model applied to anidealised town. The SEIRS model has been modified to take account of spatialvariation and, where possible, the model parameters are based on official virusspreading data from the UK. We compare predictions from a data-correctedBidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network and a predictive GenerativeAdversarial Network. The predictions given by these two frameworks are accuratewhen compared to the original SEIRS model data. Additionally, these frameworksare data-agnostic and could be applied to towns, idealised or real, in the UKor in other countries. Also, more compartments could be included in the SEIRSmodel, in order to study more realistic epidemiological behaviour.
Amendola M, Arcucci R, Mottet L, et al., 2021, Data Assimilation in the Latent Space of a Convolutional Autoencoder, Pages: 373-386, ISSN: 0302-9743
Data Assimilation (DA) is a Bayesian inference that combines the state of a dynamical system with real data collected by instruments at a given time. The goal of DA is to improve the accuracy of the dynamic system making its result as real as possible. One of the most popular technique for DA is the Kalman Filter (KF). When the dynamic system refers to a real world application, the representation of the state of a physical system usually leads to a big data problem. For these problems, KF results computationally too expensive and mandates to use of reduced order modeling techniques. In this paper we proposed a new methodology we called Latent Assimilation (LA). It consists in performing the KF in the latent space obtained by an Autoencoder with non-linear encoder functions and non-linear decoder functions. In the latent space, the dynamic system is represented by a surrogate model built by a Recurrent Neural Network. In particular, an Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network is used to train a function which emulates the dynamic system in the latent space. The data from the dynamic model and the real data coming from the instruments are both processed through the Autoencoder. We apply the methodology to a real test case and we show that the LA has a good performance both in accuracy and in efficiency.
Padrino JC, Srinil N, Kurushin V, et al., 2021, A ONE-DIMENSIONAL MECHANISTIC MODEL FOR TRACKING UNSTEADY SLUG FLOW, ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition (IMECE), Publisher: AMER SOC MECHANICAL ENGINEERS
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- Citations: 1
ViaEstrem L, Salinas P, Xie Z, et al., 2020, Robust control volume finite element methods for numerical wave tanks using extreme adaptive anisotropic meshes, International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, Vol: 92, Pages: 1707-1722, ISSN: 0271-2091
Multiphase inertia‐dominated flow simulations, and free surface flow models in particular, continue to this day to present many challenges in terms of accuracy and computational cost to industry and research communities. Numerical wave tanks and their use for studying wave‐structure interactions are a good example. Finite element method (FEM) with anisotropic meshes combined with dynamic mesh algorithms has already shown the potential to significantly reduce the number of elements and simulation time with no accuracy loss. However, mesh anisotropy can lead to mesh quality‐related instabilities. This article presents a very robust FEM approach based on a control volume discretization of the pressure field for inertia dominated flows, which can overcome the typically encountered mesh quality limitations associated with extremely anisotropic elements. Highly compressive methods for the water‐air interface are used here. The combination of these methods is validated with multiphase free surface flow benchmark cases, showing very good agreement with experiments even for extremely anisotropic meshes, reducing by up to two orders of magnitude the required number of elements to obtain accurate solutions.
Cheng M, Fang F, Pain CC, et al., 2020, An advanced hybrid deep adversarial autoencoder for parameterized nonlinear fluid flow modelling, Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, Vol: 372, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 0045-7825
Considering the high computation cost required in conventional computation fluid dynamic simulations, machine learning methods have been introduced to flow dynamic simulations in years, aiming on reducing CPU time. In this work, we propose a hybrid deep adversarial autoencoder (VAE-GAN) to integrate generative adversarial network (GAN) and variational autoencoder (VAE) for predicting parameterized nonlinear fluid flows in spatial and temporal dimensions. High-dimensional inputs are compressed into the low-dimensional representations by nonlinear functions in a convolutional encoder. In this way, the predictive fluid flows reconstructed in a convolutional decoder contain the dynamic fluid flow physics of high nonlinearity and chaotic nature. In addition, the low-dimensional representations are applied to the adversarial network for model training and parameter optimization, which enables fast computation process. The capability of the hybrid VAE-GAN is illustrated by varying inputs on a flow past a cylinder test case as well as a second case of water column collapse. Numerical results show that this hybrid VAE-GAN has successfully captured the spatio-temporal flow features with CPU speed-up of three orders of magnitude. These promising results suggest that the hybrid VAE-GAN can play a critical role in efficiently and accurately predicting complex flows in future research efforts.
Yekta A, Salinas P, Hajirezaie S, et al., 2020, Reactive transport modeling in heterogeneous porous media with dynamic mesh optimization, Computational Geosciences: modeling, simulation and data analysis, Vol: 25, Pages: 357-372, ISSN: 1420-0597
This paper presents a numerical simulator for solving compositional multiphase flow and reactive transport. The simulator was developed by effectively linking IC-FERST (Imperial College Finite Element Reservoir SimulaTor) with PHREEQCRM. IC-FERST is a next-generation three-dimensional reservoir simulator based on the double control volume finite element method and dynamic unstructured mesh optimization and is developed by the Imperial College London. PHREEQCRM is a state-of-the-art geochemical reaction package and is developed by the United States Geological Survey. We present a step-by-step framework on how the coupling is performed. The coupled code is called IC-FERST-REACT and is capable of simulating complex hydrogeological, biological, chemical, and mechanical processes occurring including processes occur during CO2 geological sequestration, CO2 enhanced oil recovery, and geothermal systems among others. In this paper, we present our preliminary work as well as examples related to CO2 geological sequestration. We performed the model coupling through developing an efficient application programming interface (API). IC-FERST-REACT inherits high-order methods and unstructured meshes with dynamic mesh optimization from IC-FERST. This reduces the computational cost by placing the mesh resolution where and when necessary and it can better capture flow instabilities if they occur. This can have a strong impact on reactive transport simulations which usually suffer from computational cost. From PHREEQCRM the code inherits the ability to efficiently model geochemical reactions. Benchmark examples are used to show the capability of IC-FERST-REACT in solving multiphase flow and reactive transport.
Dargaville S, Smedley-Stevenson RP, Smith PN, et al., 2020, Goal-based angular adaptivity for Boltzmann transport in the presence of ray-effects, Journal of Computational Physics, Vol: 421, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 0021-9991
Boltzmann transport problems often involve heavy streaming, where particles propagate long distance due to the dominance of advection over particle interaction. If an insufficiently refined non-rotationally invariant angular discretisation is used, there are areas of the problem where no particles will propagate. These “ray-effects” are problematic for goal-based error metrics with angular adaptivity, as the metrics in the pre-asymptotic region will be zero/incorrect and angular adaptivity will not occur. In this work we use low-order filtered spherical harmonics, which are rotationally invariant and hence not subject to ray-effects, to “bootstrap” our error metric and enable highly refined anisotropic angular adaptivity with a Haar wavelet angular discretisation. We test this on three simple problems with pure streaming in which traditional error metrics fail. We show our method is robust and produces adapted angular discretisations that match results produced by fixed a priori refinement with either reduced runtime or a constant additional cost even with angular refinement.
Casas CQ, Arcucci R, Wu P, et al., 2020, A Reduced Order Deep Data Assimilation model, PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA, Vol: 412, ISSN: 0167-2789
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- Citations: 25
Cheng M, Fang F, Kinouchi T, et al., 2020, Long lead-time daily and monthly streamflow forecasting using machine learning methods, Journal of Hydrology, Vol: 590, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 0022-1694
Long lead-time streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management in both the short and long terms. Despite of some studies using machine learning methods in streamflow forecasting, only few studies have been conducted to explore long lead-time forecasting capabilities of these methods, and gain an insight into systematic comparison of model forecasting performance in both the short and long terms. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) and a long short term memory (LSTM), a powerful tool for learning long-term temporal dependencies and capturing nonlinear relationship, have been adopted to forecast streamflow at daily and monthly scales for a long lead-time period. For long lead-time streamflow forecasting, a recursive forecasting procedure, which takes the last one-step-ahead forecast as a new input for the next-step-ahead forecast, is used in the ANN and LSTM forecasting systems. Two models are trained and validated for streamflow forecasting using the rainfall and runoff datasets collected from the Nan River Basin and Ping River Basin, Thailand, covering the period 1974 to 2014. To further explore the impact of parameter settings on model performance, two parameters, i.e. the length of time lag and the number of maximum epochs, are examined in the ANN and LSTM models. The main findings are highlighted here. First, with an optimal setting up of model parameters, both the ANN and LSTM model can provide accurate daily forecasting (up to 20 days ahead). Second, in comparison to the ANN model, the LSTM model exhibits better model performance in long lead-time daily forecasting, but less satisfactory in multi-monthly forecasting due to lack of large monthly training dataset. Third, the selection of the length of the time lag and number of maximum epochs used in both ANN and LSTM modelling are the key for long lead-time streamflow forecasting at daily and monthly scales. These findings suggest that the LSTM could be ad
Joulin C, Xiang J, Latham J-P, et al., 2020, Capturing heat transfer for complex-shaped multibody contact problems, a new FDEM approach, Computational Particle Mechanics, Vol: 7, Pages: 919-934, ISSN: 2196-4378
This paper presents a new approach for the modelling of heat transfer in 3D discrete particle systems. Using a combined finite–discrete element (FDEM) method, the surface of contact is numerically computed when two discrete meshes of two solids experience a small overlap. Incoming heat flux and heat conduction inside and between solid bodies are linked. In traditional FEM (finite element method) or DEM (discrete element method) approaches, to model heat transfer across contacting bodies, the surface of contact is not directly reconstructed. The approach adopted here uses the number of surface elements from the penetrating boundary meshes to form a polygon of the intersection, resulting in a significant decrease in the mesh dependency of the method. Moreover, this new method is suitable for any sizes or shapes making up the particle system, and heat distribution across particles is an inherent feature of the model. This FDEM approach is validated against two models: a FEM model and a DEM pipe network model. In addition, a multi-particle heat transfer contact problem of complex-shaped particles is presented.
Kramer S, Wilson C, Davies R, et al., 2020, FluidityProject/fluidity: New test cases "Analytical solutions for mantle flow in cylindrical and spherical shells"
This release adds new test cases described in the GMD paper "Analytical solutions for mantle flow in cylindrical and spherical shells"
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