Publications
432 results found
De Noblet-Ducoudré N, Claussen M, Prentice C, 2000, Mid-Holocene greening of the Sahara: First results of the GAIM 6000 year BP experiment with two asynchronously coupled atmosphere/biome models, Climate Dynamics, Vol: 16, Pages: 643-659, ISSN: 0930-7575
The mid-Holocene 'green' Sahara represents the largest anomaly of the atmosphere-biosphere system during the last 12 000 years. Although this anomaly is attributed to precessional forcing leading to a strong enhancement of the African monsoon, no climate model so far has been able to simulate the full extent of vegetation in the Sahara region 6000 years ago. Here two atmospheric general circulation models (LMD 5.3 and ECHAM 3) are asynchronously coupled to an equilibrium biogeography model to give steady-state simulations of climate and vegetation 6000 years ago, including biogeophysical feedback. The two model results are surprisingly different, and neither is fully realistic. ECHAM shows a large northward extension of vegetation in the western part of the Sahara only. LMD shows a much smaller and more zonal vegetation shift. These results are unaffected by the choice of 'green' or modern initial conditions. The inability of LMD to sustain a 'green' Sahara 6000 years ago is linked to the simulated strength of the tropical summer circulation. During the northern summer monsoon season, the meridional gradient of sea-level pressure and subsidence over the western part of northern Africa are both much weaker in ECHAM than in LMD in the present as well as the mid-Holocene. These features allow the surface moist air flux to penetrate further into northern Africa in ECHAM than in LMD. This comparison illustrates the importance of correct simulation of atmospheric circulation features for the sensitivity of climate models to changes in radiative forcing, particularly for regional climates where atmospheric changes are amplified by biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.
Yu G, Chen X, Ni J, et al., 2000, Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen data-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 27, Pages: 635-664, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 321
Prentice IC, Jolly D, 2000, Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 27, Pages: 507-519, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 430
Farrera I, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, et al., 1999, Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake levels and geochemistry, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 15, Pages: 823-856, ISSN: 0930-7575
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- Citations: 246
Pinot S, Ramstein G, Harrison SP, et al., 1999, Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 15, Pages: 857-874, ISSN: 0930-7575
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- Citations: 172
Mahowald N, Kohfeld K, Hansson M, et al., 1999, Dust sources and deposition during the last glacial maximum and current climate: A comparison of model results with paleodata from ice cores and marine sediments, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol: 104, Pages: 15895-15916, ISSN: 2169-897X
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- Citations: 500
Joussaume S, Taylor KE, Braconnot P, et al., 1999, Monsoon changes for 6000 years ago: Results of 18 simulations from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 26, Pages: 859-862, ISSN: 0094-8276
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- Citations: 321
Kicklighter DW, Bruno M, Dönges S, et al., 1999, A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization to affect the global carbon budget:: a comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models, TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, Vol: 51, Pages: 343-366, ISSN: 1600-0889
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- Citations: 102
Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Laarif F, 1999, Quantifying the impact of global climate change on potential natural vegetation, CLIMATIC CHANGE, Vol: 41, Pages: 37-52, ISSN: 0165-0009
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- Citations: 33
Prentice IC, Webb T, 1998, BIOME 6000: reconstructing global mid-Holocene vegetation patterns from palaeoecological records, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 25, Pages: 997-1005, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 228
Tarasov PE, Webb T, Andreev AA, et al., 1998, Present-day and mid-Holocene biomes reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 25, Pages: 1029-1053, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 211
Yu G, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, et al., 1998, Pollen-based biome reconstructions for China at 0 and 6000 years, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 25, Pages: 1055-1069, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 155
Jolly D, Prentice IC, Bonnefille R, et al., 1998, Biome reconstruction from pollen and plant macrofossil data for Africa and the Arabian peninsula at 0 and 6000 years, JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Vol: 25, Pages: 1007-1027, ISSN: 0305-0270
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- Citations: 242
Brostrom A, Coe M, Harrison SP, et al., 1998, Land surface feedbacks and palaeomonsoons in northern Africa, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 25, Pages: 3615-3618, ISSN: 0094-8276
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- Citations: 110
Foley JA, Levis S, Prentice IC, et al., 1998, Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation, Global Change Biology, Vol: 4, Pages: 561-579, ISSN: 1354-1013
Numerous studies have underscored the importance of terrestrial ecosystems as an integral component of the Earth's climate system. This realization has already led to efforts to link simple equilibrium vegetation models with Atmospheric General Circulation Models through iterative coupling procedures. While these linked models have pointed to several possible climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms, they have been limited by two shortcomings: (i) they only consider the equilibrium response of vegetation to shifting climatic conditions and therefore cannot be used to explore transient interactions between climate and vegetation; and (ii) the representations of vegetation processes and land-atmosphere exchange processes are still treated by two separate models and, as a result, may contain physical or ecological inconsistencies. Here we present, as a proof concept, a more tightly integrated framework for simulating global climate and vegetation interactions. The prototype coupled model consists of the GENESIS (version 2) Atmospheric General Circulation Model and the IBIS (version 1) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. The two models are directly coupled through a common treatment of land surface and ecophysiological processes, which is used to calculate the energy, water, carbon, and momentum fluxes between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere. On one side of the interface, GENESIS simulates the physics and general circulation of the atmosphere. On the other side, IBIS predicts transient changes in the vegetation structure through changes in the carbon balance and competition among plants within terrestrial ecosystems. As an initial test of this modelling framework, we perform a 30 year simulation in which the coupled model is supplied with modern CO2 concentrations, observed ocean temperatures, and modern insolation. In this exploratory study, we run the GENESIS atmospheric model at relatively coarse horizontal resolutioin (4.5° latitude by 7.5° longitude) and I
Foley JA, Levis S, Prentice IC, et al., 1998, Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 4, Pages: 561-579, ISSN: 1354-1013
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- Citations: 215
Steffen W, Noble I, Canadell J, et al., 1998, The terrestrial carbon cycle:: Implications for the Kyoto Protocol, SCIENCE, Vol: 280, Pages: 1393-1394, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 296
Pan Y, Melillo JM, McGuire AD, et al., 1998, Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO<inf>2</inf>: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), Oecologia, Vol: 114, Pages: 389-404, ISSN: 0029-8549
Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO2. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In
Yu G, Sun XJ, Qin BQ, et al., 1998, Pollen-based reconstruction of vegetation patterns of China in mid-Holocene, SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES, Vol: 41, Pages: 130-136, ISSN: 1006-9313
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- Citations: 10
Heimann M, Esser G, Haxeltine A, et al., 1998, Evaluation of terrestrial Carbon Cycle models through simulations of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>:: First results of a model intercomparison study, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-24, ISSN: 0886-6236
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- Citations: 118
Clark JS, Fastie C, Hurtt G, et al., 1998, Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration, BioScience, Vol: 48, Pages: 13-24, ISSN: 0006-3568
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- Citations: 575
Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Jolly D, et al., 1998, The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions, QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, Vol: 17, Pages: 659-668, ISSN: 0277-3791
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- Citations: 103
Prentice IC, 1998, Ecology and the earth system, Symposium on Earth System Analysis, Publisher: SPRINGER-VERLAG BERLIN, Pages: 219-240
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- Citations: 1
Prentice IC, Lloyd J, 1998, C-quest in the Amazon Basin, Nature, Vol: 396, Pages: 619-620, ISSN: 0028-0836
Texier D, de Noblet N, Harrison SP, et al., 1997, Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 13, Pages: 865-882, ISSN: 0930-7575
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- Citations: 207
Fulton MR, Prentice IC, 1997, Edaphic controls on the boreonemoral forest mosaic, OIKOS, Vol: 78, Pages: 291-298, ISSN: 0030-1299
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- Citations: 5
Schimel DS, Braswell BH, Emanuel W, et al., 1997, Continental scale variability in ecosystem processes: Models, data, and the role of disturbance, Ecological Monographs, Vol: 67, Pages: 251-271, ISSN: 0012-9615
Management of ecosystems at large regional or continental scales and determination of the vulnerability of ecosystems to large-scale changes in climate or atmospheric chemistry require understanding how ecosystem processes are governed at large spatial scales. A collaborative project, the Vegetation and Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), addressed modeling of multiple resource limitation at the scale of the conterminous United States, and the responses of ecosystems to environmental change. In this paper, we evaluate the model-generated patterns of spatial variability within and between ecosystems using Century, TEM, and Biome-BGC, and the relationships between modeled water balance, nutrients, and carbon dynamics. We present evaluations of models against mapped and site-specific data. In this analysis, we compare model-generated patterns of variability in net primary productivity (NPP) and soil organic carbon (SOC) to, respectively, a satellite proxy and mapped SOC from the VEMAP soils database (derived from USDA-NRCS [Natural Resources Conservation Service] information) and also compare modeled results to site-specific data from forests and grasslands. The VEMAP models simulated spatial variability in ecosystem processes in substantially different ways, reflecting the models' differing implementations of multiple resource limitation of NPP. The models had substantially higher COrrelations across vegetation types compared to within vegetation types. All three models showed correlation among water use, nitrogen availability, and primary production, indicating that water and nutrient limitations of NPP were equilibrated with each other at steady state. This model result may explain a number of seemingly contradictory observations and provides a series of testable predictions. The VEMAP ecosystem models were implicitly or explicitly sensitive to disturbance in their simulation of NPP and carbon storage. Knowledge of the effects of disturbance (human and
Haxeltine A, Prentice IC, 1996, BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 10, Pages: 693-709, ISSN: 0886-6236
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- Citations: 718
Foley JA, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, et al., 1996, An integrated biosphere model of land surface processes, terrestrial carbon balance, and vegetation dynamics, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, Vol: 10, Pages: 603-628, ISSN: 0886-6236
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- Citations: 917
Cheddadi R, Yu G, Guiot J, et al., 1996, The climate of Europe 6000 years ago, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0930-7575
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- Citations: 156
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