Publications
251 results found
Hibino M, Verma S, Jarret CM, et al., 2023, Temporal trends in mortality of aortic dissection and rupture in the UK, Japan, the USA and Canada., Heart
OBJECTIVE: Aortic dissection and aortic aneurysm rupture are aortic emergencies and their clinical outcomes have improved over the past two decades; however, whether this has translated into lower mortality across countries remains an open question. The purpose of this study was to compare mortality trends from aortic dissection and rupture between the UK, Japan, the USA and Canada. METHODS: We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from aortic dissection and rupture in four countries from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated, and annual percentage change was estimated using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons from aortic dissection and rupture in 2019 were 1.04 and 1.80 in the UK, 2.66 and 1.16 in Japan, 0.76 and 0.52 in the USA, and 0.67 and 0.81 in Canada, respectively. There was significantly decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic rupture in all four countries and decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic dissection in the UK over the study period. There was significantly increasing trends in mortality from aortic dissection in Japan over the study period. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in the aortic dissection trends from decreasing to increasing in the USA from 2010 and Canada from 2012. In sensitivity analyses stratified by sex, similar trends were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Trends in mortality from aortic rupture are decreasing; however, mortality from aortic dissection is increasing in Japan, the USA and Canada. Further study to explain these trends is warranted.
Dehghan A, Rezaei F, Aune D, 2023, A comparative assessment between Globorisk and WHO cardiovascular disease risk scores: a population-based study., Sci Rep, Vol: 13
The Globorisk and WHO cardiovascular risk prediction models are country-specific and region-specific, respectively. The goal of this study was to assess the agreement and correlation between the WHO and Globorisk 10-year cardiovascular disease risk prediction models. The baseline data of 6796 individuals aged 40-74 years who participated in the Fasa cohort study without a history of cardiovascular disease or stroke at baseline were included. In the WHO and Globorisk models scores were calculated using age, sex, systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, diabetes, and total cholesterol for laboratory-based risk and age, sex, SBP, current smoking, and body mass index (BMI) for non-laboratory-based risk (office-based or BMI-based). In Globorisk and WHO risk agreement across risk categories (low, moderate, and high) was examined using the kappa statistic. Also, Pearson correlation coefficients and scatter plots were used to assess the correlation between Globorisk and WHO models. Bland-Altman plots were presented for determination agreement between Globorisk and WHO risk scores in individual's level. In laboratory-based models, agreement across categories was substantial in the overall population (kappa values: 0.75) and also for females (kappa values: 0.74) and males (kappa values: 0.76), when evaluated separately. In non-laboratory-based models, agreement across categories was substantial for the whole population (kappa values: 0.78), and almost perfect for among males (kappa values: 0.82) and substantial for females (kappa values: 0.73). The results showed a very strong positive correlation (r ≥ 0.95) between WHO and Globorisk laboratory-based scores for the whole population, males, and females and also a very strong positive correlation (r > 0.95) between WHO and Globorisk non-laboratory-based scores for the whole population, males, and females. In the laboratory-based models, the limit of agreements was better in males
Almanza-Aguilera E, Guiñón-Fort D, Perez-Cornago A, et al., 2023, Intake of the Total, Classes, and Subclasses of (Poly)Phenols and Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Prospective Analysis of the EPIC Study., Cancers (Basel), Vol: 15, ISSN: 2072-6694
Existing epidemiological evidence regarding the potential role of (poly)phenol intake in prostate cancer (PCa) risk is scarce and, in the case of flavonoids, it has been suggested that their intake may increase PCa risk. We investigated the associations between the intake of the total and individual classes and subclasses of (poly)phenols and the risk of PCa, including clinically relevant subtypes. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort included 131,425 adult men from seven European countries. (Poly)phenol intake at baseline was assessed by combining validated center/country-specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In total, 6939 incident PCa cases (including 3501 low-grade and 710 high-grade, 2446 localized and 1268 advanced, and 914 fatal Pca cases) were identified during a mean follow-up of 14 years. No associations were observed between the total intake of (poly)phenols and the risk of PCa, either overall (HRlog2 = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.04) or according to PCa subtype. Null associations were also found between all classes (phenolic acids, flavonoids, lignans, and stilbenes) and subclasses of (poly)phenol intake and the risk of PCa, overall and according to PCa subtype. The results of the current large prospective cohort study do not support any association between (poly)phenol intake and PCa incidence.
Madsen H, Sen A, Aune D, 2023, Fruit and vegetable consumption and the risk of hypertension: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies, European Journal of Nutrition, Vol: 62, Pages: 1941-1955, ISSN: 0044-264X
Purpose:A high fruit and vegetable intake has been associated with reduced risk of hypertension; however, results have been inconsistent and it is unclear whether specific types of fruits and vegetables are particularly beneficial. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the published prospective studies on fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of hypertension.Methods:Embase and PubMed databases were searched for relevant prospective studies up to 15th May 2022. Random effects models were used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of hypertension. Strength of evidence was assessed using World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) criteria.Results:Eighteen prospective studies (451 291 participants, 145 492 cases) were included. The summary RR (95% CI) of hypertension per 200 g/day was 0.97 (0.95–0.99, I2 = 68%, n = 8) for fruits and vegetables, 0.93 (0.89–0.98, I2 = 77%, n = 10) for fruits, and 1.00 (0.98–1.02, I2 = 38%, n = 10) for vegetables. Reductions in risk were observed up to 800 g/day for fruits and vegetables, and 550 g/day for fruits, and these two associations were considered probably causal using WCRF criteria. Inverse associations were observed for apples or pears, blueberries, raisins or grapes, avocado, broccoli, carrots and lettuce, while positive associations were observed for cantaloupe, Brussels sprouts, cruciferous vegetables, and total and fried potatoes (n = 2–5).Conclusion:A high intake of fruit and vegetables combined, and total fruit was associated with reduced risk of hypertension, while results for fruit and vegetable subtypes were mixed and need further study.
Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Haghighatdoost F, Mohammadifard N, et al., 2023, Impact of diabesity phenotype on cardiovascular diseases, major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality., Sci Rep, Vol: 13
To investigate the longitudinal association of different phenotypes of diabetes and obesity with the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD- and all-cause mortality. A total of 5432 adults, aged ≥ 35 years and free of CVD were included in this cohort study. Diabesity phenotypes were defined in six categories based on the presence of diabetes (normal (NG), prediabetes and diabetes) and obesity (obese, non-obese). Fasting blood sugar, 2-h post prandial glucose, or using anti-diabetic medicines were used to define diabetes, and body mass index and waist circumference were used to define obesity. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident CVD, CVD- and all-cause mortality across these categories. After a median follow-up of 11.25 years, 819 CVD cases, 181 CVD deaths and 488 all-cause deaths occurred. In multivariable-adjusted models and irrespective of obesity definition, the phenotypes of normal glucose-obese, prediabetes-obese and pre-diabetes-non obese were not associated with CVD incidence in comparison with NG-non obese phenotype, however, the phenotypes of diabesity, either defined by general or abdominal obesity, were associated with increased risk of incident CVD events (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.01, 1.99, and HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.07, 1.98, respectively). These findings were sex-specific and only in men with a phenotype of abdominal obesity-diabetes, a positive link was observed for CVD incidence (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.01, 2.52). No significant association was found between diabesity and death from CVD or all causes. Diabesity is a predictor of CVD and stroke incidence, but not CVD or all-cause mortality, among Iranians. This association is more pronounced amongst men than women.
Castro-Espin C, Bonet C, Crous-Bou M, et al., 2023, Association of Mediterranean diet with survival after breast cancer diagnosis in women from nine European countries: results from the EPIC cohort study, BMC Medicine, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1741-7015
BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower risk of breast cancer (BC) but evidence from prospective studies on the role of Mediterranean diet on BC survival remains sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate whether adherence to Mediterranean diet prior to diagnosis is associated with overall and BC-specific mortality. METHODS: A total of 13,270 incident breast cancer cases were identified from an initial sample of 318,686 women in 9 countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was estimated through the adapted relative Mediterranean diet (arMED), a 16-point score that includes 8 key components of the Mediterranean diet and excludes alcohol. The degree of adherence to arMED was classified as low (score 0-5), medium (score 6-8), and high (score 9-16). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between the arMED score and overall mortality, and Fine-Gray competing risks models were applied for BC-specific mortality. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 8.6 years from diagnosis, 2340 women died, including 1475 from breast cancer. Among all BC survivors, low compared to medium adherence to arMED score was associated with a 13% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.13, 95%CI 1.01-1.26). High compared to medium adherence to arMED showed a non-statistically significant association (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.84-1.05). With no statistically significant departures from linearity, on a continuous scale, a 3-unit increase in the arMED score was associated with an 8% reduced risk of overall mortality (HR3-unit 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97). This result sustained when restricted to postmenopausal women and was stronger among metastatic BC cases (HR3-unit 0.81, 95% CI: 0.72-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Consuming a Mediterranean diet before BC diagnosis may improve long-term prognosis, particularly after menopause and in cases of metastatic breast can
Cariolou M, Markozannes G, Becerra Tomas N, et al., 2023, Association between adiposity after diagnosis of prostate cancer and mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis, BMJ Medicine, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2754-0413
OBJECTIVE To explore the associations between adiposity indices, assessed at or after a diagnosis of prostate cancer, and mortality. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES PubMed and Embase, from inception to 16 November 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES Cohort studies or randomised controlled trials of men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer that investigated the associations between adiposity (body mass index, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue) after diagnosis and mortality outcomes. A modified version of the risk of bias for nutrition observational studies tool was used to assess risk of bias. RESULTS 79 studies were identified that investigated adiposity indices after a diagnosis of prostate cancer in relation to mortality. No randomised controlled trials were found. A non-linear dose-response meta-analysis indicated a J shaped association between body mass index and all-cause mortality (33910 men, 11095 deaths, 17 studies). The highest rate of all-cause mortality was found at the lowest and upper range of the distribution: 11-23% higher rate for a body mass index of 17-21and 4-43% higher rate for a body mass index of 30-40. The association between body mass index and mortality specific to prostate cancer was flat until body mass index reached 26- 27, and then increased linearly by 8-66% for a body mass index of 30-40 (33137 men, 2947 deaths, 13 studies), but the 95% confidence intervals were wide. These associations did not differ in most predefined subgroups by study design, number of deaths, anthropometric assessment, follow-up time, geographical location, prostate cancer risk group, and adjustment variables. No associations were found in meta-analyses between 10cm increases in waist circumference and all-cause mortality or mortality specific to prostate cancer, but only three studies were available. The few studies with data on change in weight, waist-to-hip ratio, a
Dehghan A, Rayatinejad A, Khezri R, et al., 2023, Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based World Health Organization risk equations for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk., BMC Med Res Methodol, Vol: 23
BACKGROUND: The WHO model has laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based versions for 10-year risk prediction of cardiovascular diseases. Due to the fact that in some settings, there may not be the necessary facilities for risk assessment with a laboratory-based model, the present study aimed to determine the agreement between laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based WHO cardiovascular risk equations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we used the baseline data of 6796 individuals without a history of cardiovascular disease and stroke who participated in the Fasa cohort study. The risk factors of the laboratory-based model included age, sex, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, smoking and total cholesterol, while the non-laboratory-based model included age, sex, SBP, smoking and BMI. Kappa coefficients was used to determine the agreement between the grouped risk and Bland-Altman plots were used to determine the agreement between the scores of the two models. Sensitivity and specificity of non-laboratory-based model were measured at the high-risk threshold. RESULTS: In the whole population, the agreement between the grouped risk of the two models was substantial (percent agreement = 79.0%, kappa = 0.68). The agreement was better in males than in females. A substantial agreement was observed in all males (percent agreement = 79.8%, kappa = 0.70) and males < 60 years old (percent agreement = 79.9%, kappa = 0.67). The agreement in males ≥ 60 years old was moderate (percent agreement = 79.7%, kappa = 0.59). The agreement among females was also substantial (percent agreement = 78.3%, kappa = 0.66). The agreement for females < 60 years old, (percent agreement = 78.8%, kappa = 0.61) was substantial and for females ≥ 6
Aune D, Schlesinger S, Mahamat-Saleh Y, et al., 2023, Diabetes mellitus, prediabetes and the risk of Parkinson’s disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 15 cohort studies with 29.9 million participants and 86,345 cases, European Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 38, Pages: 591-604, ISSN: 0393-2990
A diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and prediabetes has been associated with increased risk of Parkinson’s disease (PD) in several studies, but results have not been entirely consistent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies on diabetes mellitus, prediabetes and the risk of PD to provide an up-to-date assessment of the evidence. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for relevant studies up to 6th of February 2022. Cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between diabetes, prediabetes and Parkinson’s disease were included. Summary RRs (95% CIs) were calculated using a random effects model. Fifteen cohort studies (29.9 million participants, 86,345 cases) were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR (95% CI) of PD for persons with diabetes compared to persons without diabetes was 1.27 (1.20–1.35, I2 = 82%). There was no indication of publication bias, based on Egger’s test (p = 0.41), Begg’s test (p = 0.99), and inspection of the funnel plot. The association was consistent across geographic regions, by sex, and across several other subgroup and sensitivity analyses. There was some suggestion of a stronger association for diabetes patients reporting diabetes complications than for diabetes patients without complications (RR = 1.54, 1.32–1.80 [n = 3] vs. 1.26, 1.16–1.38 [n = 3]), vs. those without diabetes (pheterogeneity=0.18). The summary RR for prediabetes was 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02–1.07, I2 = 0%, n = 2). Our results suggest that patients with diabetes have a 27% increased relative risk of developing PD compared to persons without diabetes, and persons with prediabetes have a 4% increase in RR compared to persons with normal blood glucose. Further studies are warranted to clarify the specific role age
Hibino M, Pandey AK, Hibino H, et al., 2023, Mortality trends of aortic stenosis in high-income countries from 2000 to 2020., Heart
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to describe recent mortality trends from aortic stenosis (AS) among eight high-income countries. METHODS: We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from AS in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, the USA and Canada from 2000 to 2020. Crude and age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated. We calculated age-specific mortality rates in three groups (<64, 65-79 and ≥80 years). Annual percentage change was analysed using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: During the observation period, the crude mortality rates per 100 000 persons increased in all the eight countries (from 3.47 to 5.87 in the UK, from 2.98 to 8.93 in Germany, from 3.84 to 5.52 in France, from 1.97 to 4.33 in Italy, from 1.12 to 5.49 in Japan, from 2.14 to 3.38 in Australia, from 3.58 to 4.22 in the USA and from 2.12 to 5.00 in Canada). In joinpoint regression of age-standardised mortality rates, trend changes towards a decrease were observed in Germany after 2012 (-1.2%, p=0.015), Australia after 2011 (-1.9%, p=0.005) and the USA after 2014 (-3.1%, p<0.001). Age-specific mortality rates in age group ≥80 years had shifts towards decreasing trends in all the eight countries in contrast to other younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: While crude mortality rates increased in the eight countries, shifts towards decreasing trends were identified in age-standardised mortality rates in three countries and in the elderly aged ≥80 years in the eight countries. Further multidimensional observation is warranted to clarify the mortality trends.
Parasuaraman G, Ayyasamy L, Aune D, et al., 2023, The association between body mass index, abdominal fatness, and weight change and the risk of adult asthma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies., Sci Rep, Vol: 13
Obesity has been associated with increased risk of adult asthma, however, not all studies have found a clear association between overweight and the incidence of asthma, and data on other adiposity measures have been limited. Hence, we aimed to summarize evidence on association between adiposity and adult asthma. Relevant studies were retrieved through searches conducted in PubMed, and EMBASE up to March 2021. A total of sixteen studies (63,952 cases and 1,161,169 participants) were included in the quantitative synthesis. The summary RR was 1.32 (95% CI 1.21-1.44, I2 = 94.6%, pheterogeneity < 0.0001, n = 13) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI, 1.26 (95% CI 1.09-1.46, I2 = 88.6%, pheterogeneity < 0.0001, n = 5) per 10 cm increase in waist circumference and 1.33 (95% CI 1.22-1.44, I2 = 62.3%, pheterogeneity= 0.05, n = 4) per 10 kg increase in weight gain. Although the test for nonlinearity was significant for BMI (pnonlinearity < 0.00001), weight change (pnonlinearity = 0.002), and waist circumference (pnonlinearity = 0.02), there was a clear dose-response relationship between higher levels of adiposity and asthma risk. The magnitude of the associations and the consistency of the results across studies and adiposity measures provide strong evidence that overweight and obesity, waist circumference and weight gain increases asthma risk. These findings support policies to curb the global epidemic of overweight and obesity.
Bonet C, Crous-Bou M, Tsilidis KK, et al., 2023, The association between body fatness and mortality among breast cancer survivors: results from a prospective cohort study., Eur J Epidemiol, Vol: 38, Pages: 545-557
Evidence linking body fatness to breast cancer (BC) prognosis is limited. While it seems that excess adiposity is associated with poorer BC survival, there is uncertainty over whether weight changes reduce mortality. This study aimed to assess the association between body fatness and weight changes pre- and postdiagnosis and overall mortality and BC-specific mortality among BC survivors. Our study included 13,624 BC survivors from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with a mean follow-up of 8.6 years after diagnosis. Anthropometric data were obtained at recruitment for all cases and at a second assessment during follow-up for a subsample. We measured general obesity using the body mass index (BMI), whereas waist circumference and A Body Shape Index were used as measures of abdominal obesity. The annual weight change was calculated for cases with two weight assessments. The association with overall mortality and BC-specific mortality were based on a multivariable Cox and Fine and Gray models, respectively. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the potential causal association. Five-unit higher BMI prediagnosis was associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval: 5-15%) increase in overall mortality and 7% (0-15%) increase in dying from BC. Women with abdominal obesity demonstrated a 23% (11-37%) increase in overall mortality, independent of the association of BMI. Results related to weight change postdiagnosis suggested a U-shaped relationship with BC-specific mortality, with higher risk associated with losing weight or gaining > 2% of the weight annually. MR analyses were consistent with the identified associations. Our results support the detrimental association of excess body fatness on the survival of women with BC. Substantial weight changes postdiagnosis may be associated with poorer survival.
Bolling B, Aune D, Noh H, et al., 2023, Dried fruits, nuts, and cancer risk and survival: a review of the evidence and future research directions, Nutrients, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 2072-6643
Dried fruits and nuts contain high amounts of nutrients and phytochemicals—all of which may have anticarcinogenic, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant properties. This narrative review summarizes the evidence for dried fruits and nuts and cancer incidence, mortality, and survival and their potential anticancer properties. The evidence for dried fruits in cancer outcomes is limited, but existing studies have suggested an inverse relationship between total dried fruit consumption and cancer risk. A higher consumption of nuts has been associated with a reduced risk of several site-specific cancers in prospective cohort studies, including cancers of the colon, lung, and pancreas, with relative risks per 5 g/day increment equal to 0.75 (95% CI 0.60, 0.94), 0.97 (95% CI 0.95, 0.98), and 0.94 (95% CI 0.89, 0.99), respectively. A daily intake of total nuts of 28 g/day has also been associated with a 21% reduction in the rate of cancer mortality. There is also some evidence that frequent nut consumption is associated with improved survival outcomes among patients with colorectal, breast, and prostate cancer; however, further studies are needed. Future research directions include the investigation of additional cancer types, including rare types of cancer. For cancer prognosis, additional studies with pre- and postdiagnosis dietary assessment are warranted.
Clasen J, Cole R, Aune D, et al., 2023, Vitamin D status and risk of rheumatoid arthritis: systematic review and meta-analysis, BMC Rheumatology, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2520-1026
BackgroundVitamin D is important for immunomodulation and may play a role in autoimmune diseases. Studies have reported a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, and vitamin D status, assessed by circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration, is inversely associated with RA disease activity. However, it is unclear whether vitamin D deficiency increases the risk of later developing RA. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of pre-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations and risk of RA.MethodsMedline and Embase databases were searched in December 2021 using various keywords for ‘vitamin D’, ‘rheumatoid arthritis’, and ‘prospective study’. Publications identified from the search were screened for eligibility, studies were excluded if vitamin D status was measured at or after RA diagnosis, and data were extracted from relevant articles. Bayesian meta-analysis was used to estimate the summary relative risk (RR) and 95% credible interval (CrI) for risk of RA in relation to circulating 25(OH)D concentrations, as well as the between-study heterogeneity.ResultsThe search strategy yielded 908 records, of which 4 publications reporting on 7 studies, involving a total of 15,604 participants and 1049 incident RA cases, were included in the meta-analysis. There was no suggestion of an association between 25(OH)D concentration and subsequent risk of RA. The pooled RR per 25 nmol/L increment in 25(OH)D was 0.96 (95% CrI 0.82–1.13; I2 = 52%). No associations were evident in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CrI 0.65–1.61; I2 = 77%, 2 studies) or women (RR = 0.94, 95% CrI 0.73–1.22; I2 = 71%, 4 studies).ConclusionsThis systematic review and meta-analysis did not identify evidence of an association between 25(OH)D and RA risk, but there was notable between-study heterogeneity and a lack of precision. Investigations in larg
Kliemann N, Rauber F, Levy R, et al., 2023, Food processing and cancer risk in Europe: results from the prospective EPIC cohort study, The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 7, Pages: E219-E232, ISSN: 2542-5196
BackgroundFood processing has been hypothesised to play a role in cancer development; however, data from large-scale epidemiological studies are scarce. This study investigated the association between dietary intake according to amount of food processing and risk of cancer at 25 anatomical sites using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.MethodsThis study used data from the prospective EPIC cohort study, which recruited participants between March 18, 1991, and July 2, 2001, from 23 centres in ten European countries. Participant eligibility within each cohort was based on geographical or administrative boundaries. Participants were excluded if they had a cancer diagnosis before recruitment, had missing information for the NOVA food processing classification, or were within the top and bottom 1% for ratio of energy intake to energy requirement. Validated dietary questionnaires were used to obtain information on food and drink consumption. Participants with cancer were identified using cancer registries or during follow-up from a combination of sources, including cancer and pathology centres, health insurance records, and active follow-up of participants. We performed a substitution analysis to assess the effect of replacing 10% of processed foods and ultra-processed foods with 10% of minimally processed foods on cancer risk at 25 anatomical sites using Cox proportional hazard models.Findings521 324 participants were recruited into EPIC, and 450 111 were included in this analysis (318 686 [70·8%] participants were female individuals and 131 425 [29·2%] were male individuals). In a multivariate model adjusted for sex, smoking, education, physical activity, height, and diabetes, a substitution of 10% of processed foods with an equal amount of minimally processed foods was associated with reduced risk of overall cancer (hazard ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·95–0·9
Horn JW, Feng T, Mørkedal B, et al., 2023, Body mass index measured repeatedly over 42 years as a risk factor for ischemic stroke: the HUNT study., Nutrients, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2072-6643
BACKGROUND: Higher BMI in middle age is associated with ischemic stroke, but little is known about BMI over adulthood, and the risk for ischemic stroke as most studies relied on a single measurement of BMI. METHODS: BMI was measured four times over a period of 42 years. We calculated average BMI values and group-based trajectory models and related these to the prospective risk of ischemic stroke after the last examination in Cox models with a follow-up time of 12 years. RESULTS: A total of 14,139 participants, with a mean age of 65.2 years and 55.4% women, had information on BMI from all four examinations, and we observed 856 ischemic strokes. People with overweight and obesity over adulthood had a higher risk for ischemic stroke with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 1.29 (95% CI 1.11-1.48) and 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.67), respectively, when compared to normal weight participants. Excess weight tended to have stronger effects earlier than later in life. A trajectory of developing obesity throughout life was associated with higher risk than other trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: High average BMI, especially at an early age, is a risk factor for ischemic stroke. Early weight control and long-term weight reduction for those with high BMI may decrease the later occurrence of ischemic stroke.
Hibino M, Halkos ME, Murphy DA, et al., 2023, Age period cohort analysis of rheumatic heart disease in high-income countries., Clin Res Cardiol
INTRODUCTION: Rheumatic heart disease is considered well-controlled in high-income countries; however, its actual trends in mortality remain unclarified. We analyzed trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in association with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: We analyzed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, USA, and Canada from 2000 to 2020. We used age-cohort-period modeling to estimate cohort and period effects. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) and heterogeneity were calculated. RESULTS: In the most recent year, crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 1.10 in the USA to 6.17 in Germany, and 0.32 (95% CI 0.31-0.34) in Japan and 1.70 (95% CI 1.65-1.75) in Germany, respectively. During the observation period, while Germany had a constant trend in overall annual percentage change, all the other countries had significant decreasing trends (p < 0.0001, respectively). Annual percent change was not homogeneous across each group in all 8 countries (pheterogeneity < 0.0001), with 2 peaks in the younger and older age categories. In Germany, Italy, Australia, and Canada, we found increasing mortality rates among older patients. Improving period and cohort risks for rheumatic heart disease mortality were generally observed, excluding Germany where the period effect was worsening and the cohort effect was constant. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality trends from rheumatic heart disease were decreasing in the study high-income countries except for Germany where higher mortality and two peaks in annual percentage change in younger and older age groups warrant further investigation.
Chan DSM, Vieira R, Abar L, et al., 2023, Postdiagnosis body fatness, weight change and breast cancer prognosis: Global Cancer Update Program (CUP global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 152, Pages: 572-599, ISSN: 0020-7136
Previous evidence on postdiagnosis body fatness and mortality after breast cancer was graded as limited-suggestive. To evaluate the evidence on body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-hip-ratio and weight change in relation to breast cancer prognosis, an updated systematic review was conducted. PubMed and Embase were searched for relevant studies published up to 31 October, 2021. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate summary relative risks (RRs). The evidence was judged by an independent Expert Panel using pre-defined grading criteria. One randomized controlled trial and 225 observational studies were reviewed (220 publications). There was strong evidence (likelihood of causality: probable) that higher postdiagnosis BMI was associated with increased all-cause mortality (64 studies, 32 507 deaths), breast cancer-specific mortality (39 studies, 14 106 deaths) and second primary breast cancer (11 studies, 5248 events). The respective summary RRs and 95% confidence intervals per 5 kg/m2 BMI were 1.07 (1.05-1.10), 1.10 (1.06-1.14) and 1.14 (1.04-1.26), with high between-study heterogeneity (I2 = 56%, 60%, 66%), but generally consistent positive associations. Positive associations were also observed for waist circumference, waist-hip-ratio and all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality. There was limited-suggestive evidence that postdiagnosis BMI was associated with higher risk of recurrence, nonbreast cancer deaths and cardiovascular deaths. The evidence for postdiagnosis (unexplained) weight or BMI change and all outcomes was graded as limited-no conclusion. The RCT showed potential beneficial effect of intentional weight loss on disease-free-survival, but more intervention trials and well-designed observational studies in diverse populations are needed to elucidate the impact of body composition and their changes on breast cancer outcomes.
Cariolou M, Abar L, Aune D, et al., 2023, Postdiagnosis recreational physical activity and breast cancer prognosis: Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 152, Pages: 600-615, ISSN: 0020-7136
It is important to clarify the associations between modifiable lifestyle factors such as physical activity and breast cancer prognosis to enable the development of evidence-based survivorship recommendations. We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses to summarise the evidence on the relationship between postbreast cancer diagnosis physical activity and mortality, recurrence and second primary cancers. We searched PubMed and Embase through 31st October 2021 and included 20 observational studies and three follow-up observational analyses of patients enrolled in clinical trials. In linear dose-response meta-analysis of the observational studies, each 10-unit increase in metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-h/week higher recreational physical activity was associated with 15% and 14% lower risk of all-cause (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8%-22%, studies = 12, deaths = 3670) and breast cancer-specific mortality (95% CI: 4%-23%, studies = 11, deaths = 1632), respectively. Recreational physical activity was not associated with breast cancer recurrence (HR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.91-1.05, studies = 6, deaths = 1705). Nonlinear dose-response meta-analyses indicated 48% lower all-cause and 38% lower breast cancer-specific mortality with increasing recreational physical activity up to 20 MET-h/week, but little further reduction in risk at higher levels. Predefined subgroup analyses across strata of body mass index, hormone receptors, adjustment for confounders, number of deaths, menopause and physical activity intensities were consistent in direction and magnitude to the main analyses. Considering the methodological limitations of the included studies, the independent Expert Panel concluded ‘limited-suggestive’ likelihood of causality for an association between recreational physical activity and lower risk of all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality.
Becerra-Tomas N, Balducci K, Abar L, et al., 2023, Postdiagnosis dietary factors, supplement use and breast cancer prognosis: Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 152, Pages: 616-634, ISSN: 0020-7136
Little is known about how diet might influence breast cancer prognosis. The current systematic reviews and meta-analyses summarise the evidence on postdiagnosis dietary factors and breast cancer outcomes from randomised controlled trials and longitudinal observational studies. PubMed and Embase were searched through 31st October 2021. Random-effects linear dose-response meta-analysis was conducted when at least three studies with sufficient information were available. The quality of the evidence was evaluated by an independent Expert Panel. We identified 108 publications. No meta-analysis was conducted for dietary patterns, vegetables, wholegrains, fish, meat, and supplements due to few studies, often with insufficient data. Meta-analysis was only possible for all-cause mortality with dairy, isoflavone, carbohydrate, dietary fibre, alcohol intake and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), and for breast cancer-specific mortality with fruit, dairy, carbohydrate, protein, dietary fat, fibre, alcohol intake and serum 25(OH)D. The results, with few exceptions, were generally null. There was limited-suggestive evidence that predefined dietary patterns may reduce the risk of all-cause and other causes of death; that isoflavone intake reduces the risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk (RR) per 2 mg/day: 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.02), breast cancer-specific mortality (RR for high vs low: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.64-1.07), and recurrence (RR for high vs low: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.61-0.92); that dietary fibre intake decreases all-cause mortality (RR per 10 g/day: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.80-0.94); and that serum 25(OH)D is inversely associated with all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality (RR per 10 nmol/L: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.89-0.97 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90-0.99, respectively). The remaining associations were graded as limited-no conclusion.
Tsilidis KK, Cariolou M, Becerra-Tomas N, et al., 2023, Postdiagnosis body fatness, recreational physical activity, dietary factors and breast cancer prognosis: Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) summary of evidence grading, International Journal of Cancer, Vol: 152, Pages: 635-644, ISSN: 0020-7136
Based on the Global Cancer Update Programme, formally known as the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project, we performed systematic reviews and meta-analyses to investigate the association of postdiagnosis body fatness, physical activity and dietary factors with breast cancer prognosis. We searched PubMed and Embase for randomised controlled trials and longitudinal observational studies from inception to 31 October 2021. We calculated summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random-effects meta-analyses. An independent Expert Panel graded the quality of evidence according to predefined criteria. The evidence on postdiagnosis body fatness and higher all-cause mortality (RR per 5 kg/m2 in body mass index: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.05-1.10), breast cancer-specific mortality (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06-1.14) and second primary breast cancer (RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.04-1.26) was graded as strong (likelihood of causality: probable). The evidence for body fatness and breast cancer recurrence and other nonbreast cancer-related mortality was graded as limited (likelihood of causality: limited-suggestive). The evidence on recreational physical activity and lower risk of all-cause (RR per 10 metabolic equivalent of task-hour/week: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78-0.92) and breast cancer-specific mortality (RR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.77-0.96) was judged as limited-suggestive. Data on dietary factors was limited, and no conclusions could be reached except for healthy dietary patterns, isoflavone and dietary fibre intake and serum 25(OH)D concentrations that were graded with limited-suggestive evidence for lower risk of the examined outcomes. Our results encourage the development of lifestyle recommendations for breast cancer patients to avoid obesity and be physically active.
Glenn AJ, Aune D, Freisling H, et al., 2023, Nuts and Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes: A Review of the Evidence and Future Directions., Nutrients, Vol: 15
Nuts are nutrient-rich foods that contain many bioactive compounds that are beneficial for cardiovascular health. Higher consumption of nuts has been associated with a reduced risk of several cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in prospective cohort studies, including a 19% and 25% lower risk of CVD incidence and mortality, respectively, and a 24% and 27% lower risk of coronary heart disease incidence and mortality, respectively. An 18% lower risk of stroke mortality, a 15% lower risk of atrial fibrillation, and a 19% lower risk of total mortality have also been observed. The role of nuts in stroke incidence, stroke subtypes, peripheral arterial disease and heart failure has been less consistent. This narrative review summarizes recommendations for nuts by clinical practice guidelines and governmental organizations, epidemiological evidence for nuts and CVD outcomes, nut-containing dietary patterns, potential mechanisms of nuts and CVD risk reduction, and future research directions, such as the use of biomarkers to help better assess nut intake. Although there are still some uncertainties around nuts and CVD prevention which require further research, as summarized in this review, there is a substantial amount of evidence that supports that consuming nuts will have a positive impact on primary and secondary prevention of CVD.
Sæby Dybvik J, Svendsen M, Aune D, 2023, Vegetarian and vegan diets and the risk of cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, European Journal of Nutrition, Vol: 62, Pages: 51-69, ISSN: 0044-264X
Purpose:Vegetarian diets have been associated with reduced risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD). However, results regarding cardiovascular disease (CVD) overall and stroke are less clear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies on CVD, IHD and stroke risk among vegetarians or vegans versus nonvegetarians to clarify these associations.Methods:PubMed and Ovid Embase databases were searched through August 12, 2021. Prospective cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incidence or mortality from CVD, IHD and stroke, comparing vegetarians and vegans to nonvegetarians were included. Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed using ROBINS-I and the strength of evidence was assessed using World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) criteria. Summary RRs (95% CIs) were estimated using a random effects model.Results:Thirteen cohort studies (844,175 participants, 115,392 CVD, 30,377 IHD, and 14,419 stroke cases) were included. The summary RR for vegetarians vs. nonvegetarians was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.79–0.92, I2 = 68%, n = 8) for CVD, 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71–0.88, I2 = 67%, n = 8) for IHD, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.77–1.05, I2 = 61%, n = 12) for total stroke, and for vegans vs. nonvegetarians was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.68–1.00, I2 = 0%, n = 6) for IHD. RoB was moderate (n = 8) to serious (n = 5). The associations between vegetarian diets and CVD and IHD were considered probably causal using WCRF criteria.Conclusions:Vegetarian diets are associated with reduced risk of CVD and IHD, but not stroke, but further studies are needed on stroke. These findings should be considered in dietary guidelines.
Aune D, Mahamat-Saleh Y, Kobeissi E, et al., 2023, Blood pressure, hypertension and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies, European Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 38, Pages: 145-178, ISSN: 0393-2990
Elevated blood pressure and hypertension have been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation in a number of epidemiological studies, however, the strength of the association has differed between studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between blood pressure and hypertension and atrial fibrillation. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for studies of hypertension and blood pressure and atrial fibrillation up to June 6th 2022. Cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of atrial fibrillation associated with hypertension or blood pressure were included. A random effects model was used to estimate summary RRs. Sixty eight cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR was 1.50 (95% CI: 1.42-1.58, I2 = 98.1%, n = 56 studies) for people with hypertension compared to those without hypertension (1,080,611 cases, 30,539,230 participants), 1.18 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21, I2 = 65.9%, n = 37 studies) per 20 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure (346,471 cases, 14,569,396 participants), and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11, I2 = 91.5%, n = 22 studies) per 10 mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure (332,867 cases, 14,354,980 participants). There was evidence of a nonlinear association between diastolic blood pressure and atrial fibrillation with a steeper increase in risk at lower levels of diastolic blood pressure, but for systolic blood pressure the association appeared to be linear. For both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the risk increased even within the normal range of blood pressure and persons at the high end of systolic and diastolic blood pressure around 180/110 mmHg had a 1.8-2.3 fold higher risk of atrial fibrillation compared to those with a blood pressure of 90/60 mmHg. These results suggest that elevated blood pressure and hypertension in
Amiri M, Raeisi-Dehkordi H, Verkaar AJCF, et al., 2023, Circulating lipoprotein (a) and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, ISSN: 0393-2990
Karavasiloglou N, Hughes DJ, Murphy N, et al., 2023, Prediagnostic serum calcium concentrations and risk of colorectal cancer development in 2 large European prospective cohorts, The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol: 117, Pages: 33-45, ISSN: 0002-9165
BACKGROUND: Higher dietary calcium consumption is associated with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, little data are available on the association between circulating calcium concentrations and CRC risk. OBJECTIVES: To explore the association between circulating calcium concentrations and CRC risk using data from 2 large European prospective cohort studies. METHODS: Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate multivariable-adjusted ORs and 95% CIs in case-control studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; n-cases = 947, n-controls = 947) and the UK Biobank (UK-BB; n-cases = 2759, n-controls = 12,021) cohorts. RESULTS: In EPIC, nonalbumin-adjusted total serum calcium (a proxy of free calcium) was not associated with CRC (OR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.03; modeled as continuous variable, per 1 mg/dL increase), colon cancer (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.82, 1.05) or rectal cancer (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.20) risk in the multivariable adjusted model. In the UK-BB, serum ionized calcium (free calcium, most active form) was inversely associated with the risk of CRC (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.95; per 1 mg/dL) and colon cancer (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.90), but not rectal cancer (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.24) in multivariable adjusted models. Meta-analysis of EPIC and UK-BB CRC risk estimates showed an inverse risk association for CRC in the multivariable adjusted model (OR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.84, 0.97). In analyses by quintiles, in both cohorts, higher levels of serum calcium were associated with reduced CRC risk (EPIC: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.47, 1.00; P-trend = 0.03; UK-BB: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.94; P-trend < 0.01). Analyses by anatomical subsite showed an inverse cancer risk association in the colon (EPIC: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.39, 1.02; P-trend = 0.05; UK-BB: ORQ5vs.Q1: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.88; P-trend < 0.01) but not the rectum. CONCLUSIONS: In UK-BB, higher serum ionized calcium
Zargarzadeh N, Mousavi SM, Santos HO, et al., 2023, Legume Consumption and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies., Adv Nutr, Vol: 14, Pages: 64-76
There is an equivocal and inconsistent association between legume consumption and health outcomes and longevity. The purpose of this study was to examine and quantify the potential dose-response relationship between legume consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population. We conducted a systematic literature search on PubMed/Medline, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and Embase from inception to September 2022, as well as reference lists of relevant original papers and key journals. A random-effects model was used to calculate summary HRs and their 95% CIs for the highest and lowest categories, as well as for a 50 g/d increment. We also modeled curvilinear associations using a 1-stage linear mixed-effects meta-analysis. Thirty-two cohorts (31 publications) involving 1,141,793 participants and 93,373 deaths from all causes were included. Higher intakes of legumes, compared with lower intakes, were associated with a reduced risk of mortality from all causes (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98; n = 27) and stroke (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.99; n = 5). There was no significant association for CVD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.09; n =11), CHD mortality (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.78, 1.09; n = 5), or cancer mortality (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.01; n = 5). In the linear dose-response analysis, a 50 g/d increase in legume intake was associated with a 6% reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.99; n = 19), but no significant association was observed for the remaining outcomes. The certainty of evidence was judged from low to moderate. A higher legume intake was associated with lower mortality from all causes and stroke, but no association was observed for CVD, CHD, and cancer mortality. These results support dietary recommendations to increase the consumption of legumes.
Jahangiry L, Dehghan A, Farjam M, et al., 2022, Laboratory-based and office-based Globorisk scores to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases among Iranians: results from the Fasa PERSIAN cohort (vol 22, 305, 2022), BMC MEDICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY, Vol: 22
Aune D, Markozannes G, Abar L, et al., 2022, Physical activity and health-related quality of life in women with breast cancer: a meta-analysis, JNCI Cancer Spectrum, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2515-5091
Background: Physical activity (PA) is associated with improved health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) among women with breast cancer; however, uncertainty remains regarding PA types and dose (frequency, duration, intensity) and various HRQoL measures. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was conducted to clarify whether specific types and doses of physical activity was related to global and specific domains of HRQoL, as part of the Global Cancer Update Programme, formerly known as the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research Continuous Update Project. Methods: PubMed and CENTRAL databases were searched up to August 31, 2019. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) in HRQoL scores were estimated using random effects models. An independent Expert Panel graded the evidence. Results: Seventy-nine RCTs (14,554 breast cancer patients) were included. PA interventions resulted in higher global HRQoL as measured by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast, WMDs (95% confidence intervals)=5.94 (2.64-9.24, I2=59%, n=12), Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General, 4.53 (1.94-7.13, I2=72%, n=18), European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-C30, 6.78 (2.61-10.95, I2=76.3%, n=17). The likelihood of causality was considered probable that PA improves HRqoL in breast cancer survivors. Effects were weaker for physical function and mental/emotional health. Evidence regarding dose and type of PA remains insufficient for firm conclusions. Conclusion: PA results in improved global HRQoL in breast cancer survivors with weaker effects observed for physical function and mental/emotional health. Additional research is needed to define the impact of types and doses of activity on various domains of HRQoL.
Jahangiry L, Dehghan A, Farjam M, et al., 2022, Laboratory-based and office-based Globorisk scores to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases among Iranians: results from the Fasa PERSIAN cohort., BMC Medical Research Methodology, Vol: 22, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1471-2288
BACKGROUND: Globorisk is a novel risk prediction model for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD). Globorisk is a country-specific risk prediction model that determines CVD risk for all countries. This model has two versions; laboratory-based and office-based. This study aimed to determine the agreement between laboratory-based and office-based models in a large sample of the general population. METHODS: Baseline data from the Fasa cohort study was used for the current study. In total, 6810 participants ≥ 40 years without any history of cardiovascular disease or stroke were included in the study. To determine the laboratory-based risk model, factors include age, sex, current smoking status, history of diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total cholesterol. To estimate the office-based risk model, factors were age, sex, current smoking status, SBP, and body mass index (BMI). Kappa statistics was used to distinguish the agreement between grouped scores in these two models. Additionally, correlation coefficients and scatter plots were used to determine the linear correlation between the two models. RESULTS: In this study 46.53% of the participants were men. The mean age (SD) of participants was 51.08 (7.88) years. Agreements between the two models were moderate and substantial in all women and all men, respectively. The agreement between the two CVD risk groups was 90.15% (kappa = 0.717) in all men, 92.94% (kappa = 0.571) among men aged < 60 years and 77.60% (kappa = 0.645) in men aged ≥ 60 years. The agreement between the two CVD risk groups was 86.68% (kappa = 0.572) among all women, 93.96% (kappa = 0.274) among women aged < 60 years and 62.46% (kappa = 0.422) among women aged ≥ 60 years. A very strong positive correlation (r = 0.94) was found between the two risk scores in all
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