Imperial College London

Professor Deirdre Hollingsworth

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

d.hollingsworth Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

217 results found

Brady MA, Toubali E, Baker M, Long E, Worrell C, Ramaiah K, Graves P, Hollingsworth TD, Kelly-Hope L, Stukel D, Tripathi B, Means AR, Matendechero SH, Krentel Aet al., 2023, Persons 'never treated' in mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis: identifying programmatic and research needs from a series of research review meetings 2020-2021., Int Health

As neglected tropical disease programs rely on participation in rounds of mass drug administration (MDA), there is concern that individuals who have never been treated could contribute to ongoing transmission, posing a barrier to elimination. Previous research has suggested that the size and characteristics of the never-treated population may be important but have not been sufficiently explored. To address this critical knowledge gap, four meetings were held from December 2020 to May 2021 to compile expert knowledge on never treatment in lymphatic filariasis (LF) MDA programs. The meetings explored four questions: the number and proportion of people never treated, their sociodemographic characteristics, their infection status and the reasons why they were not treated. Meeting discussions noted key issues requiring further exploration, including how to standardize measurement of the never treated, adapt and use existing tools to capture never-treated data and ensure representation of never-treated people in data collection. Recognizing that patterns of never treatment are situation specific, participants noted measurement should be quick, inexpensive and focused on local solutions. Furthermore, programs should use existing data to generate mathematical models to understand what levels of never treatment may compromise LF elimination goals or trigger programmatic action.

Journal article

Forbes K, Basáñez M-G, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RMet al., 2023, Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 378, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 0962-8436

Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Journal article

Davis EL, Crump RE, Medley GF, Solomon AW, Pemmaraju VRR, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2023, A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 378, ISSN: 0962-8436

Journal article

Clark J, Davis EL, Prada JM, Gass K, Krentel A, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2023, How correlations between treatment access and surveillance inclusion impact neglected tropical disease monitoring and evaluation-A simulated study., PLoS Negl Trop Dis, Vol: 17

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment.

Journal article

Bertozzi-Villa A, Bever CAA, Gerardin J, Proctor JLL, Wu M, Harding D, Hollingsworth TD, Bhatt S, Gething PWWet al., 2023, An archetypes approach to malaria intervention impact mapping: a new framework and example application, MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 22

Journal article

Anderson RM, Cano J, Hollinsworth TD, Deribe-Kassaye K, Zoure HGM, Kello AB, Impouma B, Kalu AA, Appleby L, Yard E, Salasibew M, McRae-McKee K, Vegvari Cet al., 2023, Responding to the cuts in UK AID to neglected tropical diseases control programmes in Africa, TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 117, Pages: 237-239, ISSN: 0035-9203

Journal article

Crellen T, Haswell M, Sithithaworn P, Sayasone S, Odermatt P, Lamberton PHL, Spencer SEF, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2023, Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 290, ISSN: 0962-8452

Journal article

Quaife M, Medley GF, Jit M, Drake T, Asaria M, van Baal P, Baltussen R, Bollinger L, Bozzani F, Brady O, Broekhuizen H, Chalkidou K, Chi Y-L, Dowdy DW, Griffin S, Haghparast-Bidgoli H, Hallett T, Hauck K, Hollingsworth TD, McQuaid CF, Menzies NA, Merritt MW, Mirelman A, Morton A, Ruiz FJ, Siapka M, Skordis J, Tediosi F, Walker P, White RG, Winskill P, Vassall A, Gomez GBet al., 2022, Considering equity in priority setting using transmission models: Recommendations and data needs, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, Vol: 41, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1755-4365

ObjectivesDisease transmission models are used in impact assessment and economic evaluations of infectious disease prevention and treatment strategies, prominently so in the COVID-19 response. These models rarely consider dimensions of equity relating to the differential health burden between individuals and groups. We describe concepts and approaches which are useful when considering equity in the priority setting process, and outline the technical choices concerning model structure, outputs, and data requirements needed to use transmission models in analyses of health equity.MethodsWe reviewed the literature on equity concepts and approaches to their application in economic evaluation and undertook a technical consultation on how equity can be incorporated in priority setting for infectious disease control. The technical consultation brought together health economists with an interest in equity-informative economic evaluation, ethicists specialising in public health, mathematical modellers from various disease backgrounds, and representatives of global health funding and technical assistance organisations, to formulate key areas of consensus and recommendations.ResultsWe provide a series of recommendations for applying the Reference Case for Economic Evaluation in Global Health to infectious disease interventions, comprising guidance on 1) the specification of equity concepts; 2) choice of evaluation framework; 3) model structure; and 4) data needs. We present available conceptual and analytical choices, for example how correlation between different equity- and disease-relevant strata should be considered dependent on available data, and outline how assumptions and data limitations can be reported transparently by noting key factors for consideration.ConclusionsCurrent developments in economic evaluations in global health provide a wide range of methodologies to incorporate equity into economic evaluations. Those employing infectious disease models need to use the

Journal article

Stolk WA, Coffeng LE, Bolay FK, Eneanya OA, Fischer PU, Hollingsworth TD, Koudou BG, Meite A, Michael E, Prada JM, Rivera RMC, Sharma S, Touloupou P, Weil GJ, de Vlas SJet al., 2022, Comparing antigenaemia- and microfilaraemia as criteria for stopping decisions in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in Africa, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1935-2735

Journal article

Borlase A, Le Rutte EA, Castano S, Blok DJ, Toor J, Giardina F, Davis EL, NTD MCet al., 2022, Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 10, Pages: E1600-E1611, ISSN: 2214-109X

Journal article

Davis EL, Hollingsworth TD, 2022, Estimating LFT and qPCR test-sensitivity over time since infection from a human challenge study

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Testing has been central to global policy throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Understanding how test sensitivity changes after exposure is crucial for the interpretation of test outcomes and the design of testing-based interventions. Using data from a human challenge study, we derive temporal test sensitivity profiles for lateral flow tests (LFT), quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) tests and viable virus, measured by focus-forming assay (FFA). The median time to detectability was 2 days (throat swab) and 3 days (nasal) for qPCR and 4 days for LFT (both swabs), and there was strong positive correlation between first LFT positive and first FFA positive for both throat (p=0.00019) and nasal (p=0.00032) swabs, supporting the use of LFTs as a method of detecting infectiousness. Peak LFT sensitivity was 82.4% (67.0%-91.8%) for throat samples, occurring 6 days post-exposure and 93.3% (85.1%-98.0%) for nasal, 7 days post-exposure. These temporal profiles provide quantification of the mean behaviour of these tests and individual-based variability and could inform a framework for investigating future testing-based interventions.</jats:p>

Journal article

Pan D, Sze S, Nazareth J, Martin CA, Al-Oraibi A, Baggaley RF, Nellums LB, Hollingsworth TD, Tang JW, Pareek Met al., 2022, The monkeypox case definition in the UK is broad Reply, LANCET, Vol: 400, Pages: 1301-1302, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Vegvari C, Abbott S, Ball F, Brooks-Pollock E, Challen R, Collyer BS, Dangerfield C, Gog JR, Gostic KM, Heffernan JM, Hollingsworth TD, Isham V, Kenah E, Mollison D, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Roberts MG, Tomba GS, Thompson RN, Trapman Pet al., 2022, Commentary on the use of the reproduction number <i>R</i> during the COVID-19 pandemic, STATISTICAL METHODS IN MEDICAL RESEARCH, Vol: 31, Pages: 1675-1685, ISSN: 0962-2802

Journal article

Mollison D, Isham V, Dangerfield C, Hollingsworth Det al., 2022, Preface: Challenges for future pandemics, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 40, ISSN: 1755-4365

Journal article

Bertozzi-Villa A, Bever C, Gerardin J, Proctor JL, Wu M, Harding D, Hollingsworth TD, Bhatt S, Gething PWet al., 2022, An archetypes approach to malaria intervention impact mapping: a new framework and example application

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>As both mechanistic and geospatial malaria modeling methods become more integrated into malaria policy decisions, there is increasing demand for strategies that combine these two methods. This paper introduces a novel archetypes-based methodology for generating high-resolution intervention impact maps based on mechanistic model simulations. An example configuration of the framework is described and explored.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>First, dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques were applied to rasterized geospatial environmental and mosquito covariates to find archetypal malaria transmission patterns. Next, mechanistic models were run on a representative site from each archetype to assess intervention impact. Finally, these mechanistic results were reprojected onto each pixel to generate full maps of intervention impact. The example configuration used ERA5 and Malaria Atlas Project covariates, singular value decomposition, k-means clustering, and the Institute for Disease Modeling’s EMOD model to explore a range of three-year malaria interventions primarily focused on vector control and case management.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Rainfall, temperature, and mosquito abundance layers were clustered into ten transmission archetypes with distinct properties. Example intervention impact curves and maps highlighted archetype-specific variation in efficacy of vector control interventions. A sensitivity analysis showed that the procedure for selecting representative sites to simulate worked well in all but one archetype.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>This paper introduces a novel methodology which combine

Journal article

Pan D, Sze S, Nazareth J, Martin CA, Al-Oraibi A, Baggaley RF, Nellums LB, Hollingsworth TD, Tang JW, Pareek Met al., 2022, Monkeypox in the UK: arguments for a broader case definition, LANCET, Vol: 399, Pages: 2345-2346, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Kumar V, Siddiqui NA, Pollington TM, Mandal R, Das S, Kesari S, Das VR, Pandey K, Hollingsworth TD, Chapman LAC, Das Pet al., 2022, Impact of intensified control on visceral leishmaniasis in a highly-endemic district of Bihar, India: an interrupted time series analysis, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 39, ISSN: 1755-4365

Journal article

Touloupou P, Retkute R, Hollingsworth TD, Spencer SEFet al., 2022, Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa, SPATIAL AND SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 41, ISSN: 1877-5845

Journal article

Kura K, Ayabina D, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RMet al., 2022, Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for <i>Schistosoma mansoni</i>, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1756-3305

Journal article

Metcalf CJE, Andriamandimby SF, Baker RE, Glennon EE, Hampson K, Hollingsworth TD, Klepac P, Wesolowski Aet al., 2021, Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens, EPIDEMICS, Vol: 37, ISSN: 1755-4365

Journal article

Retkute R, Touloupou P, Basanez M-G, Hollingsworth TD, Spencer SEFet al., 2021, Integrating geostatistical maps and infectious disease transmission models using Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling, Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol: 15, Pages: 1980-1998, ISSN: 1932-6157

The Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling algorithm (AMIS)is an iterative technique which recycles samples from all previousiterations in order to improve the efficiency of the proposal distribution. We have formulated a new statistical framework, based onAMIS, to take the output from a geostatistical model of infectiousdisease prevalence, incidence or relative risk, and project it forwardin time under a mathematical model for transmission dynamics. Weadapted the AMIS algorithm so that it can sample from multiple targets simultaneously by changing the focus of the adaptation at eachiteration. By comparing our approach against the standard AMIS algorithm, we showed that these novel adaptations greatly improve theefficiency of the sampling. We tested the performance of our algorithmon four case studies: ascariasis in Ethiopia, onchocerciasis in Togo,human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Botswana, and malaria inthe Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Journal article

Pan D, Sze S, Martin CA, Nazareth J, Woolf K, Baggaley RF, Hollingsworth TD, Khunti K, Nellums LB, Pareek Met al., 2021, Covid-19 and ethnicity: we must seek to understand the drivers of higher transmission, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 375, ISSN: 0959-535X

Journal article

Ayabina DV, Clark J, Bayley H, Lamberton PHL, Toorid J, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2021, Gender-related differences in prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of <i>Schistosoma</i> infections in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1935-2735

Journal article

Anderson RM, Vegvari C, Hollingsworth TD, Pi L, Maddren R, Ng CW, Baggaley RFet al., 2021, The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: remaining uncertainties in our understanding of the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the virus, and challenges to be overcome, INTERFACE FOCUS, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2042-8898

Journal article

Davis EL, Lucas TCD, Borlase A, Pollington TM, Abbott S, Ayabina D, Crellen T, Hellewell J, Pi L, Medley GF, Hollingsworth TD, Klepac Pet al., 2021, Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 12

Journal article

Spencer SEF, Laeyendecker O, Dyson L, Hsieh Y-H, Patel EU, Rothman RE, Kelen GD, Quinn TC, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2021, Estimating HIV, HCV and HSV2 incidence from emergency department serosurvey, Gates Open Research, Vol: 5, Pages: 116-116

<ns3:p><ns3:bold>Background:</ns3:bold>Our understanding of pathogens and disease transmission has improved dramatically over the past 100 years, but coinfection, how different pathogens interact with each other, remains a challenge. Cross-sectional serological studies including multiple pathogens offer a crucial insight into this problem. </ns3:p><ns3:p><ns3:bold>Methods:</ns3:bold>We use data from three cross-sectional serological surveys (in 2003, 2007 and 2013) in a Baltimore emergency department to predict the prevalence for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and herpes simplex virus, type 2 (HSV2), in a fourth survey (in 2016). We develop a mathematical model to make this prediction and to estimate the incidence of infection and coinfection in each age and ethnic group in each year.</ns3:p><ns3:p><ns3:bold>Results:</ns3:bold>Overall we find a much stronger age cohort effect than a time effect, so that, while incidence at a given age may decrease over time, individuals born at similar times experience a more constant force of infection over time.</ns3:p><ns3:p><ns3:bold>Conclusions:</ns3:bold>These results emphasise the importance of age-cohort counselling and early intervention while people are young. Our approach adds value to data such as these by providing age- and time-specific incidence estimates which could not be obtained any other way, and allows forecasting to enable future public health planning.</ns3:p>

Journal article

Clark J, Stolk WA, Basáñez M-G, Coffeng LE, Cucunubá ZM, Dixon MA, Dyson L, Hampson K, Marks M, Medley GF, Pollington TM, Prada JM, Rock KS, Salje H, Toor J, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2021, How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases, Gates Open Research, Vol: 5, Pages: 112-112

<ns3:p>The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, <ns3:italic>Ending</ns3:italic><ns3:italic> the </ns3:italic><ns3:italic>Neglect</ns3:italic><ns3:italic> to </ns3:italic><ns3:italic>Attain</ns3:italic><ns3:italic> the </ns3:italic><ns3:italic>Sustainable Development Goals</ns3:italic><ns3:italic>,</ns3:italic> an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, <ns3:italic>gambiense</ns3:italic> human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), <ns3:italic>Taenia solium</ns3:italic> taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.</ns3:p>

Journal article

Lucas TCD, Davis EL, Ayabina D, Borlase A, Crellen T, Pi L, Medley GF, Yardley L, Klepac P, Gog J, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2021, Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 376, ISSN: 0962-8436

Journal article

Gog JR, Hollingsworth TD, 2021, Epidemic interventions: insights from classic results, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 376, ISSN: 0962-8436

Journal article

Crellen T, Pi L, Davis EL, Pollington TM, Lucas TCD, Ayabina D, Borlase A, Toor J, Prem K, Medley GF, Klepac P, Hollingsworth TDet al., 2021, Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 376, ISSN: 0962-8436

Journal article

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